J-31 Export Potential???

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post16 May 2018, 01:33

Considering the issues Russia is having with the Su-57 and it's projected high price. This only leaves the J-31 as a viable alternative to the F-35 in the near future. So, what nations could be possible customers for the type???
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geforcerfx

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Unread post16 May 2018, 01:43

Indonesia, Malaysia depending on what side of this Pacific cold war they choose. Maybe North Korea someday, depends on how this next waves of talks and summits end up. Pakistan has pretty much already committed in place of buying J-10's. Egypt, Iran, Algeria, Venezuela. Everyone else will prob want a single engine more basic design for cost reasons, I could see the J-17 still being a viable option for the people who can't get the gripen. Some of those customer have bought advance flanker variants, if Russia can get enough of them to commit to the Su-57 in a similar time period they might choose to stick with Russia for the time being.
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weasel1962

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Unread post16 May 2018, 02:16

The caveat for the countries stated is generally they would buy if the aircraft has entered service with the country of production. This is a standard de-risk measure to ensure the aircraft maintenance is supported across the life of the aircraft.

As we are aware, an aircraft requires quite a fair bit of maintenance across its lifespan. If the aircraft is not accepted into service by the country that is producing the aircraft, what guarantee would there be that the aircraft would be supported throughout the life, not to mention the cost of spares etc would be quite high considering the aircraft would be “customized”.

Indonesia can likely afford the Su-57. With a trillion $ economy and a military budget that is already matching Singapore’s, no reason it cannot buy the Su-57. Malaysia has so many budget issues that even a JF-17 is a question-mark at this time. The new administration has just appointed a defense minister that is more tasked & suited towards ensuring the armed forces does not stage a revolution than a professional soldier that is intending to improve the armed forces capabilities. With the move back from a VAT/GST to a sales & service tax, plus the requirement to plug the debt hole, any major investment will not happen in the short term.

The same budget constraints affect Pakistan who has chosen to stick with improving the JF-17 instead of inducting the higher thrust J-10s. The desire for a stealthy aircraft is also reduced by the inability of India to introduce the same. Same budget constraints hit Venezuela but the rest of the oil richer countries stated could be the potential 1st buyers though I still think they would likely consider the Su-57 first especially since the J-31 operate using Russian engines.

Pretty bleak at this time, would be my current assessment of J-31 export potential.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post16 May 2018, 02:32

weasel1962 wrote:The caveat for the countries stated is generally they would buy if the aircraft has entered service with the country of production. This is a standard de-risk measure to ensure the aircraft maintenance is supported across the life of the aircraft.

As we are aware, an aircraft requires quite a fair bit of maintenance across its lifespan. If the aircraft is not accepted into service by the country that is producing the aircraft, what guarantee would there be that the aircraft would be supported throughout the life, not to mention the cost of spares etc would be quite high considering the aircraft would be “customized”.

Indonesia can likely afford the Su-57. With a trillion $ economy and a military budget that is already matching Singapore’s, no reason it cannot buy the Su-57. Malaysia has so many budget issues that even a JF-17 is a question-mark at this time. The new administration has just appointed a defense minister that is more tasked & suited towards ensuring the armed forces does not stage a revolution than a professional soldier that is intending to improve the armed forces capabilities. With the move back from a VAT/GST to a sales & service tax, plus the requirement to plug the debt hole, any major investment will not happen in the short term.

The same budget constraints affect Pakistan who has chosen to stick with improving the JF-17 instead of inducting the higher thrust J-10s. The desire for a stealthy aircraft is also reduced by the inability of India to introduce the same. Same budget constraints hit Venezuela but the rest of the oil richer countries stated could be the potential 1st buyers though I still think they would likely consider the Su-57 first especially since the J-31 operate using Russian engines.

Pretty bleak at this time, would be my current assessment of J-31 export potential.



Really, bleak??? Honestly, I would say the opposite. As Russia is not likely going to export the Su-57 or at least not in any real numbers if at all??? This leaves the J-31 as the only real options for most countries. That one don't have access to the F-35 and/or can't afford it.....

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