SpudmanWP wrote:The "source" is likely the CBO and they are famous for producing "the sky is falling" reports based on worst case scenarios.
As I have said before, the latest SAR puts the CPFH of the F-35 at 14% above the F-16. So, why do they think that there might have to be 500+ less F-35s if they are only 14% more expensive to operate?
Many, many years ago I recall LM telling Norwegian media that F-35 would have substantially lower operating costs than the F-16. I don't recall exactly how much; perhaps 15% below?
Let's take one step back and think about this:
1. For many years, the USAF have been clear about how many F-35 they would buy; the number has not changed.
However, behind numbers, there has to be a budget. And behind a budget, there have to be assumptions. Now, where would those assumptions come from? Initially, presumably LM.Would a big company like LM communicate one thing to Norway (an F-35 partner) and something else to USAF? Highly unlikely. From that, I deduct that since LM communicated 15% (?)lower operating costs of F-35 than F-16 to Norway, they would communicate the same to the USAF.
2. The Operating costs numbers from LM would be used to support the F-35 budget estimates for the USAF. When the USAF look at how many a/c they can operate, they need to look at both the operational needs, as well as the budget it takes to support those.
3. On the basis of assumptions of operational needs as well as budgetary constraints, the USAF has until now stuck to the same number of F-35. However, imagine what would happen if the LM estimates of F-35 operating costs being 15% below F-16 operating costs being wrong; imagine those costs instead being 15% above operating costs of F-16. What would this mean? It would mean that either the budget estimates for operating the F-35 must be increased by 30%, or the number of F-35 must be reduced.
This is before any consideration about the lower cost to prosecute a mission thanks to being self-escorting, less ISR needed, Less IFR needed, etc.
Irrelevant for this discussion: The basic assumptions were: a) the number of F-35A; and b) operating cost of those F-35A.