Optimal 5th:4th gen ratio?

F-35 Armament, fuel tanks, internal and external hardpoints, loadouts, and other stores.
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vilters

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Unread post22 Feb 2018, 14:03

Spudman's numbers are from 2012.
Flightglobals numbers are from FY2015.

Cost between F-16 and F-35 will eventually close up to 2/3 (in favor of the F-16) and this seems pretty realistic.
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Dragon029

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Unread post22 Feb 2018, 15:48

Spudman's numbers are from the FY2018 Selected Acquisition Report (the numbers are in baseline year 2012 dollars, not from 2012) and are the forecasted figures of the F-35's CPFH (with the estimate last updated on March 7th, 2016), used to calculate the jet's lifecycle O&S cost (the (in then-year dollars) $1.1 trillion figure / $1.5 trillion when production and R&D are added in).
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mixelflick

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Unread post22 Feb 2018, 16:01

popcorn wrote:The USN is buying more SHs and the Israelis are reported to favor new F-15s in lieu of more F-35s so it would appear CONOPS will largely determine the ideal ratio which would be unique to every air arm.


I thought the Israeli's were interested in more F-35's, not new build F-15's. They'll take our leftovers and modify the hell out of them, but as for new jets - believe they're only interested in more F-35's.

Which if you ask me, is telling...
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SpudmanWP

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Unread post22 Feb 2018, 17:02

Per today's announcement of ALIS 3.0 being released for fleet integration

Gowder asserted that the release of 3.0 fixes some of the problems that have led to F-35 sustainment costs taking too long to come down, and as it spreads throughout the fleet in 2018, “I think you’ll see a big improvement” in sustainability this year, she predicted. With a further update in 2019, more progress should be made, she added.


http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... -Slow.aspx
"The early bird gets the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese."
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lrrpf52

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Unread post16 Apr 2018, 03:45

ricnunes wrote:I would say 100% 5th gen and 0% 4th gen or resuming buy all 5th gen aircraft even because the cost of modern 4th gen (the so called 4.5th gen) is very similar, almost the same and even in some/many cases more expensive than 5th gen and this not to mention effectiveness.

And even assuming you could buy 4th for a rather cheap price (which you basically can't except perhaps for some 2nd hand F-16's and then upgrade then to F-16V) it would be better to have:
1- a sole fleet of 60 5th gen fighter aircraft
then,
2- a fleet of 35 5th gen fighter aircraft and 70 gen fighter aircraft (if you want to use a 1:2 ratio) or a total of 100 planes.

Option 1- is not only cheaper at all levels which ensures better readiness and with this a much more effective and more survivable fighter fleet than option 2-

It's very hard to argue with you when I look at the program costs on:

UAE F-16E/F (If I'm reading everything correctly, I keep seeing $200 mil per bird.)
F/A-18E/F Block II is looking to be in the $92 mil + range, for the biggest customer at fleet rates, not little nations
F-15QA and F-15IA are looking to be priced higher than F-22 as well, in the hundreds of millions

Russia will come along and say how much lower their Su-30MKs cost, but then you look at how they're trying to rape India on the spares for engines, missiles, radars, avionics, which are failing much earlier than the advertised MTBF rate (shocker). Russia wants to do one-for-one replacements at full cost on those major components, and not let IAF repair at their depots.
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2017/03 ... arts-deal/

The jokes kinda write themselves.

If you want to play in the modern air combat regime to protect your nation in the wake of proliferation of advanced generational combat aircraft, you better up those weekly work hours and siphon more caviar from the Black Sea. MiG-21 and F-5 days are long gone.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post16 Apr 2018, 03:53

mixelflick wrote:
popcorn wrote:The USN is buying more SHs and the Israelis are reported to favor new F-15s in lieu of more F-35s so it would appear CONOPS will largely determine the ideal ratio which would be unique to every air arm.


I thought the Israeli's were interested in more F-35's, not new build F-15's. They'll take our leftovers and modify the hell out of them, but as for new jets - believe they're only interested in more F-35's.

Which if you ask me, is telling...


I think you hit the nail on the head. As Israel has no real interest in New Built F-15's. So, I would expect to see them place an additional order for more F-35's in the near future. While, acquiring some more used F-15D's from the US to be upgraded to Israeli Standards.
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mixelflick

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Unread post20 Apr 2018, 14:37

Corsair1963 wrote:
mixelflick wrote:
popcorn wrote:The USN is buying more SHs and the Israelis are reported to favor new F-15s in lieu of more F-35s so it would appear CONOPS will largely determine the ideal ratio which would be unique to every air arm.


I thought the Israeli's were interested in more F-35's, not new build F-15's. They'll take our leftovers and modify the hell out of them, but as for new jets - believe they're only interested in more F-35's.

Which if you ask me, is telling...


I think you hit the nail on the head. As Israel has no real interest in New Built F-15's. So, I would expect to see them place an additional order for more F-35's in the near future. While, acquiring some more used F-15D's from the US to be upgraded to Israeli Standards.


They got their mits on it (F-35) and their tune changed real fast. Previously, they expressed interest in the F-15SE. Haven't heard a word about it since LOL. It's likely that in addition to the sensors and SA, they've since experienced its raw power and agility. It climbs like an Eagle, rates like a Viper and has nose pointing authority better than a SH. The latter is new to them, and if anyone can use it to their advantage its Israeli pilots.

And then of course, there's the invisibility switch. Custom made for strikes in Syria (with Russian SAM's proliferating there) as well as Iran - the inevitable strike that's coming. Unlike the previous strikes on Baghdad, the F-35 won't require any top cover from F-15's. It can fight its way in and out.

And as a point defense interceptor, I have to believe that's where their interest in the F-35B resides. Shorter on range and lacking the heavy hitting 2,000lb JDAM internal carriage, it nonetheless can be loaded up with AMRAAM's and I'd imagine the Python 4 or whatever iteration they're up to. Even if their airfields get hit in a surprise attack, it'll guarantee defensive counter air still takes place.
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