F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 11:41
by spazsinbad
F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles [BEST READ IT ALL AT SOURCE]
04 Dec 2017 James Drew

"Imagine if seconds after North Korea’s Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile lifted off on Nov. 28, a Lockheed Martin F-35 armed with four Raytheon AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (Amraams) engaged the missile and destroyed it. This isn’t some far-fetched concept or marketing ploy. It is one way the U.S. Defense Department could conduct “kinetic” intercepts of North Korean or Iranian missiles in the future.

In early November, at an event in Washington hosted by the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) threw his support behind this concept. He said F-35s should be shooting down missiles before they can escape the atmosphere with their devastating nuclear payloads. Hunter said North Korea is only 75 mi. (120 km) wide in some places, well within the range of an AIM-120D, and Iranian missiles can be targeted from inside Kuwait....

...“It’s like an act of God,” Hunter says. “You have F-35s, you have Amraams, and you can shoot these things down as they go up.”

Tom Lawhead, who heads the Air Force Joint Strike Fighter Integration Office, says Northrop Grumman has been testing the F-35’s ability to detect and track ballistic missiles for several years. The company developed the F-35’s six-sensor, electro-optical/infrared AAQ-37 distributed aperture system and APG-81 active electronically scanned fire control radar, and it has been investing in applications for missile defense.

In October 2014, Northrop conducted an end-to-end test of this concept, using a ground-based distributed aperture system and radar-equipped testbed aircraft. The information was correlated via datalink to produce intercept-quality targeting data, accurate enough for an Amraam or Aegis guided-missile destroyer to use.

Lawhead says missile defense isn’t part of the F-35 program of record, and much more analysis needs to be done. But he says it is feasible, and Northrop believes it would take about three years from start to integration to unlock this potential in the F-35. He says operational F-35 squadrons would need to be trained on how to perform this mission, and pilots must have the authority to shoot the missiles down the moment they pop up. “Deep-strike missions really are the bread and butter of the F-35,” he notes....

...Hunter, a member of the House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee, says his office has been working with the Los Alamos and Livermore national laboratories to come up with a road map for using AIM-120-equipped F-35s for missile defense. The distributed aperture system was introduced to detect rocket and artillery fire and cue countermeasures, but the technology has far more applications...."

Source: http://aviationweek.com/defense/f-35s-c ... n-missiles

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 11:50
by kimjongnumbaun
spazsinbad wrote:
F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles [BEST READ IT ALL AT SOURCE]
04 Dec 2017 James Drew

"Imagine if seconds after North Korea’s Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile lifted off on Nov. 28, a Lockheed Martin F-35 armed with four Raytheon AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (Amraams) engaged the missile and destroyed it. This isn’t some far-fetched concept or marketing ploy. It is one way the U.S. Defense Department could conduct “kinetic” intercepts of North Korean or Iranian missiles in the future.

In early November, at an event in Washington hosted by the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) threw his support behind this concept. He said F-35s should be shooting down missiles before they can escape the atmosphere with their devastating nuclear payloads. Hunter said North Korea is only 75 mi. (120 km) wide in some places, well within the range of an AIM-120D, and Iranian missiles can be targeted from inside Kuwait....

...“It’s like an act of God,” Hunter says. “You have F-35s, you have Amraams, and you can shoot these things down as they go up.”

Tom Lawhead, who heads the Air Force Joint Strike Fighter Integration Office, says Northrop Grumman has been testing the F-35’s ability to detect and track ballistic missiles for several years. The company developed the F-35’s six-sensor, electro-optical/infrared AAQ-37 distributed aperture system and APG-81 active electronically scanned fire control radar, and it has been investing in applications for missile defense.

In October 2014, Northrop conducted an end-to-end test of this concept, using a ground-based distributed aperture system and radar-equipped testbed aircraft. The information was correlated via datalink to produce intercept-quality targeting data, accurate enough for an Amraam or Aegis guided-missile destroyer to use.

Lawhead says missile defense isn’t part of the F-35 program of record, and much more analysis needs to be done. But he says it is feasible, and Northrop believes it would take about three years from start to integration to unlock this potential in the F-35. He says operational F-35 squadrons would need to be trained on how to perform this mission, and pilots must have the authority to shoot the missiles down the moment they pop up. “Deep-strike missions really are the bread and butter of the F-35,” he notes....

...Hunter, a member of the House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee, says his office has been working with the Los Alamos and Livermore national laboratories to come up with a road map for using AIM-120-equipped F-35s for missile defense. The distributed aperture system was introduced to detect rocket and artillery fire and cue countermeasures, but the technology has far more applications...."

Source: http://aviationweek.com/defense/f-35s-c ... n-missiles


I find this claim to be a bit skeptical. The speed a rocket needs to break earth orbit is mach 11, well beyond that of the AIM-120. And that's assuming an F-35 is in the air and in position to target the ballistic missile. While theoretically possible, it's not probable.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 12:16
by vilters
Honestly?

We can not afford to shoot at those missiles. (not at this stage anyway)

If we "miss" ? ? ? That clown is gonna thing he's invisible.

One mlss is going to make him the "hero of the century".

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 13:22
by krorvik
An ICBM uses a few minutes to accelerate, so the AMRAAM would have maybe a minute or two to get going. if the launch is detected early - and F-35 sensors have shown to be capable, it's certainly possible - if the shooter is close enough.

And come on, air forces don't do stuff because it's easy... ;)

And vilters, if he shoots one with a real aimpoint, and you do nothing, he still wins. And potentially hundreds of thousands die. Not trying is not an option.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 14:29
by sferrin
A shame they made the bone-headed decision to kill NCADE.

NCADE1.jpg


NCADE2.jpg


NCADE3.jpg

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 14:49
by wrightwing
kimjongnumbaun wrote:
I find this claim to be a bit skeptical. The speed a rocket needs to break earth orbit is mach 11, well beyond that of the AIM-120. And that's assuming an F-35 is in the air and in position to target the ballistic missile. While theoretically possible, it's not probable.

Ballistic missiles don't leave the launch pad at Mach 11. There's a window while they're still accelerating, where they're vulnerable to being shot down.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 16:47
by steve2267
Interesting that NCADE interceptor configuration included an aerospike. I'm scratching my head a bit, though, wondering how that would play with an Imaging Infrared Seeker trying to look out the front at the same time.

Whether the ICBM is solid fueled or liquid fueled is also a factor. A solid fuel ICBM is likely to accelerate much quicker, where as a liquid fueled ICBM will have a much more leisurely (by comparison) climbout, me thinks.

I know NK has liquid fueled (variations on hydrazine) ICBM motors, because there were some press articles in the past year where people were crying foul that someone had assisted NK in getting the secret formula to Aerozine-50 and/or figuring out how to manufacture UDMH (unsymmetricaldimethylhydrazine) -- basically what the old Titan II burned.

Exact numbers escape me, but a Titan II probably takes 60-90 seconds to get to 30K feet. Take that with a BIG grain of salt. It will be doing Mach 1 somewhere around there. Much beyond 120 seconds and I think it is well and gone -- think Mach 3-4 and 80-100K feet. Again, take these numbers with a huge grain of salt.

I seem to recall reports that NK was working on solid fueled ICBM motors. I have no idea if they have built / flown those yet. I figure they are going to get up and go much quicker than the liquid variety.

How closely are you going to CAP NK ICBM fields? 200nm? Too far, IMO. 100nm? Still too far, me thinks. Well... maybe not. Maybe around 100nm if you are down range (ICBM is coming towards you) and loitering (!?) at 50,000 ft you might have a shot. I don't see any tactical / practical ability to loiter closer (50nm?) as you would be over NK airspace the whole time. Even 100nm seems awfully close to NK airspace.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 17:51
by XanderCrews
vilters wrote:Honestly?

We can not afford to shoot at those missiles. (not at this stage anyway)

If we "miss" ? ? ? That clown is gonna thing he's invisible.

One mlss is going to make him the "hero of the century".


We should let them fly and kill people because that's better


You're an idiot.

We are talking about airborne interception meaning the rocket is in the air, and war is on. He'll be dead soon after one way or another because NK will lose

Vilters. Worst poster here by far

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 18:16
by vilters
Call me whatever you want or like, or whatever makes you feel hot.

Shooting at launch is not an option because he fires from within his mainland; and :
a) You are NOT there
b) Reaction time from at least 300 km out? Come on with the Joke.
c) The missile is too high and too far outbound when you finally realize something went up, AND had the time to respond.

Shooting at inbound?
a) Your system has to be in the exact spot/area of re-entry.
b) Of course you should try if he aims at population or something essential.
c) Well, try. Because real life succes rate is to cry for.
d) Hide when you miss. => His neck will explode and that's harder then the missile hit.

With a 120?
That's a glider.
Warhead too small.
WAY and WAY too slow to get an ICBM.
You really HAVE to be within 10nm, because that ICBM is coming vertically down at extremely high Mach Numbers.
You"ll never-ever hit an inbound ICBM with a 120 or something alike.

Only option is to go in before launch.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 18:45
by sferrin
vilters wrote:Shooting at launch is not an option because he fires from within his mainland; and :
a) You are NOT there
b) Reaction time from at least 300 km out? Come on with the Joke.
c) The missile is too high and too far outbound when you finally realize something went up, AND had the time to respond.


While this is the most difficult phase to hit something in, given the launch would be detected virtually at ignition, it's far from impossible. Yes, with current missiles (AIM-120) you'd have to have an F-35 near the coast, but more importantly, the decision would have to have already been made to attempt a shootdown if detected. There would be no time to radio Washington. With SM-6 on Aegis just offshore you might have a better chance, but we're still talking seconds. What they needed was KEI on a Zumwalt.

vilters wrote:Shooting at inbound?
a) Your system has to be in the exact spot/area of re-entry.


You mean your defenses have to be in the target area? What a novel concept. BTW, GBI in Alaska can cover the entire Continental US from the base in Alaska. You might want to get up to speed on current technology.

vilters wrote:With a 120?
That's a glider.
Warhead too small.
WAY and WAY too slow to get an ICBM.
You really HAVE to be within 10nm, because that ICBM is coming vertically down at extremely high Mach Numbers.
You"ll never-ever hit an inbound ICBM with a 120 or something alike.


It's more about being in the right place at the right time. You'll note a Major League catcher doesn't have to be able to run a hundred miles an hour to catch a fastball.

vilters wrote:Only option is to go in before launch.


Wrong.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 19:13
by XanderCrews
vilters wrote:Call me whatever you want or like, or whatever makes you feel hot.

Shooting at launch is not an option because he fires from within his mainland; and :
a) You are NOT there
b) Reaction time from at least 300 km out? Come on with the Joke.
c) The missile is too high and too far outbound when you finally realize something went up, AND had the time to respond.

Shooting at inbound?
a) Your system has to be in the exact spot/area of re-entry.
b) Of course you should try if he aims at population or something essential.
c) Well, try. Because real life succes rate is to cry for.
d) Hide when you miss. => His neck will explode and that's harder then the missile hit.

With a 120?
That's a glider.
Warhead too small.
WAY and WAY too slow to get an ICBM.
You really HAVE to be within 10nm, because that ICBM is coming vertically down at extremely high Mach Numbers.
You"ll never-ever hit an inbound ICBM with a 120 or something alike.

Only option is to go in before launch.



Wrong yet again. Tell us more about the P-47s against Isis or coca cola 737s

You're a joke

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 21:03
by doge
Is it the same content as this video? (It is a thing posted just now.)

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 21:24
by vilters
Either, you go in before launch, or you start fabricating body-bags.

All the rest is unproven theory and wishful thinking.
Yeah, I like the slide shows too, but I know they are just that: Slideshows.

Once an ICBM is in the air? Whatever or how many buttons you push until your fingertip turns blue?
You are a bystander waiting for the impact.

Facts and figures !
Not talking about prepared tests at all.
During a test you can prove whatever you want however you want.
Simply adapt the ROE's until you are right and get the money to continue.
( Or make a better slideshow) LOL.

How many ICBM's have been shot down during a "real" conflict?

Ok?

Go in before launch, hope for a technical failure, or start building body-bags.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 21:35
by XanderCrews
vilters wrote:
How many ICBM's have been shot down during a "real" conflict?

Ok?
.



How many ICBMs have been fired in a "real" conflict?

Ok?

This is all vilters backpedaling as his original issue had nothing to do with technical ability but how things would "look" which krovik and I both noticed and commented on.


Typical vilters says stupid things then the next five posts are pretending he didn't say it.

Beyond the technical issues of which I recognize it's just dumb as hell to mention

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 21:43
by vilters
What was the answer?? ?
How many ICBM's have been shot down in real conflict?
How many??

All an F-35 (that would have to be accidently in the air and looking in the right direction) could do?

Is detect the launch, turn all radio's ON and YELL : "INCOMING".

Then look at its nav and search for a deversion base.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 21:48
by kimjongnumbaun
wrightwing wrote:
kimjongnumbaun wrote:
I find this claim to be a bit skeptical. The speed a rocket needs to break earth orbit is mach 11, well beyond that of the AIM-120. And that's assuming an F-35 is in the air and in position to target the ballistic missile. While theoretically possible, it's not probable.

Ballistic missiles don't leave the launch pad at Mach 11. There's a window while they're still accelerating, where they're vulnerable to being shot down.



They don't start at mach 11, but they accelerate VERY quickly. Here is the space shuttle, and while not a ballistic missile, did need to break orbit. By the first minute it's already breaking mach 1, and by the second minute it's at mach 3 and at 120,000 feet MSL. There is a very small window to intercept a ballistic missile in the launch phase.

https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/466711main_AP_ ... Ascent.pdf

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 21:53
by kimjongnumbaun
vilters wrote:How many ICBM's have been shot down during a "real" conflict?

Ok?

Go in before launch, hope for a technical failure, or start building body-bags.


THAAD has completed it's 14th intercept in a row.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/us-co ... le/2628246

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 21:54
by spazsinbad
Screenshot from the NG DAS video from over the page: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCasCuncTpc

Northrop Grumman's F-35 Distributed Aperture System Tested Against Ballistic Missile Targets

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 21:55
by vilters
Did you get it?

I don't believe in slide shows.

And I truly hope that the future will prove me wrong.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 22:05
by vilters
Thaad 14 succesfull test?

Did you read my first comment?
Did you read the question at all?

Tests are tests and prove NOTHING.
a) you know what (you know the tech spec of your target better then the manufacturer.)
b) you know when
c) you know from where
d) you are prepared and have all the solutions properly planned AND X-checked months before the "test"
e) manuals and manuals of ROE's.

Our clown is completely unpredictable and he has no ROE's.

AGAIN, the DAZ "slideshow".
Nice, and with what are you gonna shoot and when?

Shooting during the launch phase is excluded. There simply is NO time.

Shooting at a multi-mach re-entry?
Wanna put your "hope" on that?
Tell your population that you are "hoping".

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 22:07
by juretrn
vilters wrote:What was the answer?? ?
How many ICBM's have been shot down in real conflict?
How many??

All an F-35 (that would have to be accidently in the air and looking in the right direction) could do?

Is detect the launch, turn all radio's ON and YELL : "INCOMING".

Then look at its nav and search for a deversion base.

How many Su-35, F-35, F-22, Gripens... have been shot down so far?
Is the number in any way relevant? Does that mean they literally can't be shot down?
Having 0 statistics to judge one way or another is basically making sh*t up.
The F-35 doesn't have to be "looking the right way", that's the whole idea of DAS, FFS. And then it can, as already proven, guide an SM-6 toward the launched ballistic missile. Even if it can't, it still provides early warning and track of said missile-for others to act upon that information.
Much more than running away with its tail between its legs.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 22:09
by SpudmanWP
vilters wrote:All an (that would have to be accidently in the air and looking in the right direction) could do?


You seem to forget that an is ALWAYS looking in EVERY direction.

Obviously the scenario being talked about is when the countries involved are on a "war footing" or are actually at war so the likelihood of having them (or another DAS enabled asset) up in the air is much higher. Think of the Scud Hunting of GW1. The would have been able to hunt them down much more effectively than the jets of GW1.

The has already demonstrated its ability ti detect a target & guide an off-board asset into an intercept (ie SM-3, THAAD, etc).

Tests are tests and prove NOTHING.
:doh: :bang:

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 22:11
by kimjongnumbaun
vilters wrote:Thaad 14 succesfull test?

Did you read my first comment?
Did you read the question at all?

Tests are tests and prove NOTHING.
a) you know what (you know the tech spec of your target better then the manufacturer.)
b) you know when
c) you know from where
d) you are prepared and have all the solutions properly planned AND X-checked months before the "test"
e) manuals and manuals of ROE's.

Our clown is completely unpredictable and he has no ROE's.

AGAIN, the DAZ "slideshow".
Nice, and with what are you gonna shoot and when?

Shooting during the launch phase is excluded. There simply is NO time.

Shooting at a multi-mach re-entry?
Wanna put your "hope" on that?
Tell your population that you are "hoping".


Tests prove nothing? I guess all that testing they did on the F-15 and F-16 didn't translate to real life performance, either...

And using the same logic we can say that the F-22 cannot perform because it hasn't shot down a plane. Obviously neither are the case and you don't have a point. "Combat proven" has never been a requirement and never will be.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 22:30
by vilters
Decades ago, there were great slideshows about the Patriot and other systems too.

Gents, testing has its purposes; but in this case?

An "unknown" missile, with unconfirmed range, unknown tech specs, with unknown warhead but could be atomic.

At launch, presume you "see" the launch, you even have no idea about the target until re-entry.

At long distance?
Is it gonna be San Francisco or LA?
Less then 0.5 degree difference.
Wanna gamble?
Be my guest.

When there is even the slightest hint?
Take out the missile capability BEFORE launch. It's your ONLY option.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 22:41
by XanderCrews
vilters wrote:Did you get it?

I don't believe in slide shows.

And I truly hope that the future will prove me wrong.



That you'll believe In slideshows?

Your the guy who tells us P-47s can end Isis but a missile killing a missile is impossible

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 22:57
by XanderCrews
vilters wrote:
Tests are tests and prove NOTHING.


Then ICBMs also don't work. Since they've only ever been used in tests.

Tests prove nothing is a bit of a stretch. Tests actually do prove things. Crazy though that may seem.

Science is based on repeatable tests.

Again your original post was silly. And now you are trying to bail your way out.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 23:14
by nutshell
"Tests prove nothing" is as brillant as "AoA is irrelevant".

Masterpieces.

Let's all sit here with Vilters, talking about F35 in NK pretending they wouldnt act with impunity...

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 23:50
by sferrin
vilters wrote:How many ICBM's have been shot down during a "real" conflict?


How many ICBMs have been launched during a "real" conflict? HOW MANY??? :roll:

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 23:53
by sferrin
XanderCrews wrote:
vilters wrote:
Tests are tests and prove NOTHING.


Then ICBMs also don't work. Since they've only ever been used in tests.

Tests prove nothing is a bit of a stretch. Tests actually do prove things. Crazy though that may seem.

Science is based on repeatable tests.

Again your original post was silly. And now you are trying to bail your way out.



I think his tinfoil hat has sprung a leak.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 05 Dec 2017, 23:54
by juretrn
XanderCrews wrote:
vilters wrote:
Tests are tests and prove NOTHING.


Then ICBMs also don't work. Since they've only ever been used in tests.

Tests prove nothing is a bit of a stretch. Tests actually do prove things. Crazy though that may seem.

Science is based on repeatable tests.

Again your original post was silly. And now you are trying to bail your way out.

Well, I guess I can quit my job now, v. proved it's pointless!

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 00:00
by wrightwing
vilters wrote:Thaad 14 succesfull test?

Did you read my first comment?
Did you read the question at all?

Tests are tests and prove NOTHING.
a) you know what (you know the tech spec of your target better then the manufacturer.)
b) you know when
c) you know from where
d) you are prepared and have all the solutions properly planned AND X-checked months before the "test"
e) manuals and manuals of ROE's.

Our clown is completely unpredictable and he has no ROE's.

AGAIN, the DAZ "slideshow".
Nice, and with what are you gonna shoot and when?

Shooting during the launch phase is excluded. There simply is NO time.

Shooting at a multi-mach re-entry?
Wanna put your "hope" on that?
Tell your population that you are "hoping".


Tests prove nothing? They let you know that your system works as designed. Multiple tests let you know that it wasn't a fluke.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 00:13
by wrightwing
vilters wrote:Decades ago, there were great slideshows about the Patriot and other systems too.

Gents, testing has its purposes; but in this case?

An "unknown" missile, with unconfirmed range, unknown tech specs, with unknown warhead but could be atomic.

At launch, presume you "see" the launch, you even have no idea about the target until re-entry.

At long distance?
Is it gonna be San Francisco or LA?
Less then 0.5 degree difference.
Wanna gamble?
Be my guest.

When there is even the slightest hint?
Take out the missile capability BEFORE launch. It's your ONLY option.

PAC 1s weren't designed for use against ballistic missiles, but did a pretty good job tracking them. The issue was fusing/warhead. Later model Patriots have a very good record. The PAC-3 has had a near 100% success rate in Saudi Arabia, against Yemeni SCUDs (the Saudis and UAE have shot down over 150 missiles.)

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 00:24
by SpudmanWP
Pac-3 MSE & THAAD go one step further and get rid of the fusing all together by going with a HTK endgame.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 00:37
by sferrin
SpudmanWP wrote:Pac-3 MSE & THAAD go one step further and get rid of the fusing all together by going with a HTK endgame.


As does the standard PAC-3, SM-3, and GBI. Now if we could get THAAD-ER (KEI is too much to hope for).

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 00:46
by lbk000
Revive YAL-1 :wink:

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 01:17
by usnvo
kimjongnumbaun wrote:They don't start at mach 11, but they accelerate VERY quickly. Here is the space shuttle, and while not a ballistic missile, did need to break orbit. By the first minute it's already breaking mach 1, and by the second minute it's at mach 3 and at 120,000 feet MSL. There is a very small window to intercept a ballistic missile in the launch phase.

https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/466711main_AP_ ... Ascent.pdf


OK, lets assume that you have roughly 60 seconds to intercept the ICBM before it is going too fast and is too high for an AMRAAM. So lets look at the physics of the problem. To keep it simple, lets assume that the missile will be travelling at Mach 1 at 100,000ft and is roughly 5nm from the launch site when it has been flying for 60sec.
- The missile, to be a threat, has to be launched toward somewhere the US cares about, so it will be flying East.
- North Korea is a little over 200nm North to South but, where you could launch the missile from is somewhat restrictive for a variety of reasons. Let's say you have to contend with a missile coming anywhere from a 60nm x 100nm Box.
- Assume 15 seconds for target identification and firing. then an AMRAAM would be able to fly, assuming Mach 3 speed, roughly 20nm to intercept the missile. So each F-35 would cover a roughly circular area 40nm is diameter offset 5nm to the East.
- So you would probably need no more than 6 F-35s (two lines of 3) orbiting in specific points over North Korea or just off the coast, offset roughly 25nm East from your potential launch sites to ensure that any ICBM is engaged by a minimum of 4 AMRAAMs.
- Figure a minimum of 32 F-35s dedicated to the mission to be able to maintain the standing patrol (6 on patrol, 2 refueling or as in-air spares, probably another 2-4 on quick alert.
- Can we all agree that a AMRAAM will have no real problem intercepting a non-maneuvering ICBM flying at Mach 1 at less than 100,000ft? So at the worst, you could expect a Pk of something approaching 1 from 4 AMRAAMs but you would have to fly over NK to ensure you covered all possible launch sites.
- Of note, if you could limit the potential launch site like something 20nm x 20nm, you could have a pair of F-35 orbiting to the East of the site and have a minimum of 8 shots.
- From a known coastal testing site, you could easily stand off in international airspace and shoot down the ICBM.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 04:54
by Corsair1963
usnvo wrote:
kimjongnumbaun wrote:They don't start at mach 11, but they accelerate VERY quickly. Here is the space shuttle, and while not a ballistic missile, did need to break orbit. By the first minute it's already breaking mach 1, and by the second minute it's at mach 3 and at 120,000 feet MSL. There is a very small window to intercept a ballistic missile in the launch phase.

https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/466711main_AP_ ... Ascent.pdf


OK, lets assume that you have roughly 60 seconds to intercept the ICBM before it is going too fast and is too high for an AMRAAM. So lets look at the physics of the problem. To keep it simple, lets assume that the missile will be travelling at Mach 1 at 100,000ft and is roughly 5nm from the launch site when it has been flying for 60sec.
- The missile, to be a threat, has to be launched toward somewhere the US cares about, so it will be flying East.
- North Korea is a little over 200nm North to South but, where you could launch the missile from is somewhat restrictive for a variety of reasons. Let's say you have to contend with a missile coming anywhere from a 60nm x 100nm Box.
- Assume 15 seconds for target identification and firing. then an AMRAAM would be able to fly, assuming Mach 3 speed, roughly 20nm to intercept the missile. So each F-35 would cover a roughly circular area 40nm is diameter offset 5nm to the East.
- So you would probably need no more than 6 F-35s (two lines of 3) orbiting in specific points over North Korea or just off the coast, offset roughly 25nm East from your potential launch sites to ensure that any ICBM is engaged by a minimum of 4 AMRAAMs.
- Figure a minimum of 32 F-35s dedicated to the mission to be able to maintain the standing patrol (6 on patrol, 2 refueling or as in-air spares, probably another 2-4 on quick alert.
- Can we all agree that a AMRAAM will have no real problem intercepting a non-maneuvering ICBM flying at Mach 1 at less than 100,000ft? So at the worst, you could expect a Pk of something approaching 1 from 4 AMRAAMs but you would have to fly over NK to ensure you covered all possible launch sites.
- Of note, if you could limit the potential launch site like something 20nm x 20nm, you could have a pair of F-35 orbiting to the East of the site and have a minimum of 8 shots.
- From a known coastal testing site, you could easily stand off in international airspace and shoot down the ICBM.


How about the F-35 using it's MADL to pass on targeting data to Land or Sea Based platforms. Like in the latter case an SM-6....

https://news.usni.org/2016/09/13/video- ... al-warfare

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 05:24
by charlielima223
Corsair1963 wrote:
How about the F-35 using it's MADL to pass on targeting data to Land or Sea Based platforms. Like in the latter case an SM-6....

https://news.usni.org/2016/09/13/video- ... al-warfare


That is what I was thinking. The F-35 flying a CAP and its sensors being used as early warning to everyone else.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 05:55
by steve2267
In my opinion, you are looking at a target in an ICBM that is passing Mach 1 by or before 30,000ft in or around 60sec. At 100,000ft it is most likely Mach 3+, maybe as high as Mach 5. A lot depends on whether it is liquid fueled (slower) or solid fueled (most likely faster).

I am not as familiar with solid fueled motors, but a liquid fueled booster is likely to be very thin skinned (to save weight), and so is potentially very susceptible to shrapnel. A solid fueled booster is probably somewhat more rugged. But this is a lot of conjecture on my part.

I do not see the practicality in orbiting F-35s near NK missile pads. If you are not over NK proper (which would be an act of war, and heaven forbid someone gets shot down by lil' rocketman's minions), then you would very likely have to be very close to shore. Still a no go.

Even using F-35s as an "early warning sensor" via it's DAS sensors is probably not a good use of the F-35. While the sensor technology has been demonstrated in some testing, I do not know that it would be any better than SIBRS (Space Based Infra Red satellites already orbiting the Earth). That is to say, IMO not much is gained, if anything at all, from orbiting F-35s near NK compared to other early-warning systems already designed and in operational use for this very purpose.

So if NK appears to be prepping for a launch, and one has real reason (e.g. intelligence from somewhere) to believe they are actually going to try to drop a nuke on the US or someone else, OR to try a high-altitude EMP attack, and one has the intestinal fortitude to strike first... then F-35's taking out as many ICBM's and ICBM support infrastructure would seem the better play.

If an all-out shooting war has started, or something along the lines of Gulf War 1 and Scud hunting is in play, then assigning F-35's and/or F-22's as a missile CAP where one could be close enough to the launch sites (because the shooting has already started) may be a viable tactic.

Using F-35's to cue SM-3 shots from AB's east of NK may also be an option. I don't think SM-6's are your best choice there. SM-3 Blk II or IIA would be the most capable.

Someone mentioned THAD-ER... how does that compare to SM-3 Blk II / IIA or Aegis / SM-3 Ashore? Does THAD-ER buy you something that you don't already have in SM-3?

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 19:21
by XanderCrews
wrightwing wrote:
vilters wrote:Decades ago, there were great slideshows about the Patriot and other systems too.

Gents, testing has its purposes; but in this case?

An "unknown" missile, with unconfirmed range, unknown tech specs, with unknown warhead but could be atomic.

At launch, presume you "see" the launch, you even have no idea about the target until re-entry.

At long distance?
Is it gonna be San Francisco or LA?
Less then 0.5 degree difference.
Wanna gamble?
Be my guest.

When there is even the slightest hint?
Take out the missile capability BEFORE launch. It's your ONLY option.

PAC 1s weren't designed for use against ballistic missiles, but did a pretty good job tracking them. The issue was fusing/warhead. Later model Patriots have a very good record. The PAC-3 has had a near 100% success rate in Saudi Arabia, against Yemeni SCUDs (the Saudis and UAE have shot down over 150 missiles.)


Don't go bringing facts into this, vilters made up his mind.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 19:33
by usnvo
Corsair1963 wrote:
How about the F-35 using it's MADL to pass on targeting data to Land or Sea Based platforms. Like in the latter case an SM-6....

https://news.usni.org/2016/09/13/video- ... al-warfare


Sure, a F-35 could pass information to another platform but without the forward missile launching capability, the target missile is quickly outside your altitude limits For instance, lets say a SM-6 flies at Mach 4 which is roughly 40nm per minute. Then a ship 60nm requires roughly 90 seconds to intercept the ICBM and at that point it is already well above your engagement limits. That has always been the problem with Boost Phase intercepts, the interceptor does not have enough time to reliably intercept the target. To intercept with a run of the mill AIM-120, you need to be close to the target to kill it before it gets too high and too fast.

Of course, it would be easy to test. Write a patch for the software to identify and calculate intercept for a ballistic missile so the AMRAAM can get to the right basket, that should be fairly straight forward. Then, the next time they do a Trident or Minuteman OT launch, have an F-35 or two try to shoot it down. You could even load up the F-35 with a combination of telemetry and warshot missiles to see how well your missile guides as well as warhead terminal effects. You may lose a data point on missile reliability but at this point they have an extensive data set, missing part of one test should be no big deal.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 06 Dec 2017, 19:45
by usnvo
steve2267 wrote:If an all-out shooting war has started, or something along the lines of Gulf War 1 and Scud hunting is in play, then assigning F-35's and/or F-22's as a missile CAP where one could be close enough to the launch sites (because the shooting has already started) may be a viable tactic.



I see it as a wartime/high tension contingency. While you are doing your best to destroy leadership and missile launchers, you set up the missile CAP to try to further attrite any launches. The good thing is it also works for SRBM/MRBM/IRBMs headed toward Japan or South Korea. Of course you are talking about tying up a couple of F-35 squadrons minimum to keep your missile defense grid up and they are then not able to actively try to kill the bad guys. So it is a balancing act but it does give you an essentially free additional layer in your missile defense shield.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 07 Dec 2017, 00:31
by popcorn
Time is a critical factor to success so a new missile that affords a larger intercept window makes sense. The Japanese and US could share the expense as part of a drone fleet dedicated to the boost-phase intercept mission. A missile with twice the velocity of AMRAAM and capable of endo/exo-atmospheric kills firs the bill. Don;t expect it to fit inside a F-22 or F-35 though.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/g00 ... bS5waC8%3D

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 07 Dec 2017, 00:45
by white_lightning35
Image

My miniature brain had an idea similar to this, except it was for carriers. Have some long endurance drones with some missiles constantly monitoring the area.

Is this a bad idea?

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 07 Dec 2017, 02:01
by usnvo
popcorn wrote:Time is a critical factor to success so a new missile that affords a larger intercept window makes sense. The Japanese and US could share the expense as part of a drone fleet dedicated to the boost-phase intercept mission. A missile with twice the velocity of AMRAAM and capable of endo/exo-atmospheric kills firs the bill. Don;t expect it to fit inside a F-22 or F-35 though.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/g00 ... bS5waC8%3D


The problem with any new boost phase program, especially one that does intercepts outside the atmosphere, is that they will cost like crazy regardless of the fact that most of the technology has been proven or is borrowed from other systems. So to ask the eternal question, what do you want to give up to get this capability? I would guess at least $5 billion to start and then go up from there regardless of the laughable estimate from the linked article. After all you need a fleet of drones, new superwhammodyne missiles, an entirely new control system, new basing, etc. Just targets to test your system on will cost hundreds of millions.

The benefit of a F-35/AIM-120 solution is it would cost a very small amount to develop the software patch and test the technology and being software, it would be virtually free to update the aircraft, no new aircraft, no new pilots, no new weapons, no new bases, no change to the FYDP. Plus, it adds flexibility. If your F-35s are an attack mission and a ballistic missile pops off, you can take it down. So a limited capability based on the F-35 comes with a vastly lower opportunity cost (and also an admittedly much less effective weapon system for the mission, especially for peacetime operations.). However, there is also nothing that says you can't do both.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 07 Dec 2017, 02:43
by wolfpak
There are two TPY-2 (aka Tippy 2) radars in Japan to monitor North Korea. These are the same as those in a THAAD battery but configured for early warning. The THAAD battery in Korea also has one. These three should provide the early warning. If you are close enough to a launch site to use a AMRAAM then the shooting war has already started and it would be easier to use a JDAM to take out a missile on a TEL before launch. Here is the best site on the web for this type of info: https://mostlymissiledefense.com/

The TPY-2 can be used to provide the info for a cruiser or destroyer to fire a SM-3 or SM-6. The mode of operation is noted as "Launch on Remote." Don't forget any missile headed to CONUS will be fired with a northward trajectory to reduce the energy required to reach the target so the intercepts of these missiles would occur over China or Russia.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 07 Dec 2017, 03:33
by madrat
The ability of the PRNK to manufacture nuclear weapons and long range precision missiles is all conspiracy theory.

With the latest launch the Chinese have gone full tilt propaganda machine to prepare their country for war. The PRNK is considered a puppet regime for good reason.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 07 Dec 2017, 04:08
by steve2267
I lost your reasoning there...

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 07 Dec 2017, 06:59
by madrat
Marxist leadership isn't meant to be understood. They prefer to be feared.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 07 Dec 2017, 07:45
by Corsair1963
I have little doubt that under the right conditions the F-35 could shoot down a North Korean ICBM. Yet, that would be an extremely narrow window. Basically, you would have to be in the right place at the right time. So, while it's possible that hardly makes it practical.....


In short the F-35 would be far more useful. In taking out such missiles sites. Before they could launch their missiles in the first place!

"IMHO"

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 07 Dec 2017, 20:28
by spazsinbad
Newly Revealed Experiment Shows How F-35 Could Help Intercept ICBMs
06 Dec 2017 Patrick Tucker

"In 2014, the sensor-studded plane demonstrated an ability to track missiles, leading to a “tactically significant” improvement in targeting.

Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., raised more than a few eyebrows (and drew a few rolled eyes) when he suggested in November that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter could intercept North Korean missiles headed for the United States. Hunter cited analysis from Los Alamos National Labs and other sources, according to Inside Defense.

Turns out the F-35 may be an ICBM buster after all, or at least be helpful toward that end. On Tuesday, Northrop Grumman called a small group of journalists to its offices in Linthicum, Maryland, to show the results of a 2014 experiment conducted with the Missile Defense Agency, or MDA.

The U.S. has no foolproof way to down a North Korean ICBM. Physics says the best opportunity comes during “boost phase,” as the rocket is leaving the launch pad. But DPRK anti-aircraft defenses make it difficult for the U.S. to get a weapon close enough to do any good. That’s why the Pentagon is looking at elaborate, futuristic concepts like arming drones with missile-killing lasers.

But the F-35 is studded with sensors like no other aircraft, including the Distributed Aperture System, or DAS, a half-dozen 17-pound electro-optical and infrared sensors. These feed a helmet-mounted display that allows the pilot to effectively “see through the plane” and spot incoming aircraft and missiles.

In October 2014, Northrop and MDA launched FTX-20, an experiment to see, among other things, whether the DAS could track an enemy ICBM. They took data from the sensors, ran it through algorithms developed by Northrop and MDA’s Enterprise Sensor Lab, generated a 3D-moving picture of the missile’s trajectory, and conveyed it over the Link 16 tactical data exchange. This kind of targeting data can help cue the U.S. Navy’s anti-ballistic missile destroyers or short- and intermediate-range missile defenses like the Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile battery deployed in South Korea.

The F-35 sensors aren’t meant to replace the infrared satellites that detect launches, or the sea-based X-Band Radar that can feed targeting data about missile launches to destroyers. Rather, Northrop officials said, the DAS data would help the other missile-defense gear get a targeting track on a missile more quickly, improving the odds of nailing the shot.

“That information can go straight to the Patriot [missile system], THAAD, or anywhere else, who has communication with that platform,” John “Bama” Montgomery, a business development manager at Northrop’s ISR & Targeting Division, said on Tuesday. “You can give that information to a shooter. That shooter now has information to go and put his information in the right place. Thus the radar doesn’t have to search. It goes, ‘I know where it is; it’s right there.’”

The end result is a “tactically significant” improvement in targeting, Montgomery said. Just how significant? It took several years to figure that out, and that’s one reason why the news is only being released now. “We wanted to get our understanding of how this could change the battlefield. We’ve since done a series of modeling and [simulation] events and teamed with other governmental partners and industry.” Those numbers, he said, are classified. But: “I can tell you right now that this system, as depicted here, really does help the ballistic missile environment.”"

Source: http://www.defenseone.com/technology/20 ... ms/144365/


Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 08 Dec 2017, 01:15
by usnvo
Corsair1963 wrote:I have little doubt that under the right conditions the F-35 could shoot down a North Korean ICBM. Yet, that would be an extremely narrow window. Basically, you would have to be in the right place at the right time. So, while it's possible that hardly makes it practical.....


In short the F-35 would be far more useful. In taking out such missiles sites. Before they could launch their missiles in the first place!

"IMHO"


Well, if you were looking for missile launchers, you would be, pretty much by definition, in the right place at the right time. If you can kill it before it launches, so much the better. But, if you detect the launcher by the smoke trail of the missile, being able to detect and kill the missile shortly after launch has great utility as well, especially if the capability can be had for very minimal investment.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 08 Dec 2017, 02:48
by sferrin
wolfpak wrote:If you are close enough to a launch site to use a AMRAAM then the shooting war has already started and it would be easier to use a JDAM to take out a missile on a TEL before launch.


That'd be a good way to get a war STARTED. An F-35 patroling just outside NK airspace would be close enough to close the distance and launch against a boosting ICBM. Now if they had these they might have a better chance:

ALI1.jpg


ALI2.jpg


ALI3.jpg


These pictures are from 2005.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 08 Dec 2017, 02:55
by rheonomic
Another DAS video from a few years ago:

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 09 Dec 2017, 18:04
by barrelnut
I'm wondering if the future long-range engagement weapon (LREW) will also have ABM mission, if it truly is a two stage missile it could be a successor for both AMRAAM and NCADE.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... et-442816/

Image

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 09 Dec 2017, 23:33
by SpudmanWP
If they were smart, they would slap a booster on a CUDA/SACM and cover the Short, Medium, and long-range engagements with a common front end.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 10 Dec 2017, 04:29
by spazsinbad
This story mentions a five minute window after launch for shoot down:
The F-35 could intercept a North Korean missile launch -- but it could bring an all-out war
08 Dec 2017 Alex Lockie

"...But before a ICBM accelerates to Mach 13, it takes off the launchpad & lurches [wut?] up to speed & the entire missile, warhead, & all is together in a single target. At that point, why not shoot it down with an air-to-air missile from an F-35?

The F-35 as a missile interceptor
The US Air Force has had air-to-air missiles that lock on to hot, flying targets for decades, and an ICBM is essentially that in its first stage. And it's not just a theory. In 2007, Lockheed Martin got $US3 million to look into an air-to-air hit-to-kill missile system. In 2014, a test seemed to prove the concept....

...Rep. Duncan Hunter, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, was more open to speculating about why the Pentagon hadn't gone through with missile intercepting planes. "Very simple, what we're trying to do is shoot [air-to-air missiles] off F-35s in the first 300 seconds it takes for the missile to go up in the air," Hunter said during a November meeting on Capitol Hill with the Missile Defence Advocacy Alliance, Inside Defence noted. Hunter also pointed out that in some places, North Korea is just 75 miles across, well within the F-35's missile range, Aviation Week notes....

Source: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/f-35- ... 00920.html

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 10 Dec 2017, 05:32
by steve2267
IMO, the journalist who wrote that story did no follow-up with any technical folks, nor applied any critical thinking to the statements by the Honorable Mr. Hunter. And I don't think Mr. Hunter knows what he is talking about, technically. That is, I wouldn't trust any numbers from the fellow.

In my opinion, an ICBM is going to climb out faster than an Atlas V 401, the single-core version of the Atlas V without any solid rocket strapons. The Atlas V 401 reaches Max-Q (Mach 1.6ish) around 90 seconds after launch and is at 42,000 ft. By four minutes after launch, the Atlas V 401 is nominally at 370,000ft. Realistically, I think one only has about two, maybe three minutes to intercept that ICBM with an AIM-120 or any other currently fielded A2A missile.

For the curious, see p.19 of http://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/design_li ... .guide.pdf

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 10 Dec 2017, 05:50
by steve2267
I think it's more challenging than what I just stated. I think the time to intercept is two minutes max, after that, the missile will be too high.

Question: just how high do you think an AIM-120 could intercept a missile? 70,000ft? 100,000ft? Higher?

P.3 of the PDF at this link: http://msl1.mit.edu/ESD10/block4/4.5_NMD_01a.pdf
4.5_NMD_01a.pdf
(517.13 KiB) Downloaded 11 times
provides some trajectory data from the old Titan II ICMB. It has what looks to be a nominal trajectory on the left, and a "fast-burn" trajectory on the right.

At 60 sec the "standard" Titan II is at 10km altitude (~32000 ft), and the "fast-burn" Titan II is at 18km altitude (58,000 ft). By two minutes standard is at 52km altitude and fast-burn is at 84km altitude. I recall reading that the old AIM-54 Phoenix flew a ballistic intercept trajectory where it went up to around 100,000 ft. Does the AIM-120 go that high? And that would be near the midpoint, not at the end-game of an intercept.

The Titan II is probably a reasonable first-cut guestimate of the performance of an NK ICBM, assuming the NORK rockets are burning UDMH + nitrogen tetroxide and are not solid propellant, which would climbout even faster. Therefore, I don't think an F-35 has but two minutes from ICBM motor ignition to effect an intercept.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 10 Dec 2017, 06:03
by steve2267
From the PDF in my previous post, this graphic suggests that any F-35 CAP would have to be uncomfortably close to China and/or Russia, if not over one or the other in order to simplify the intercept problem as much as possible (i.e. make it more of a 2D intercept problem than a fully 3D crossing intercept.)

NORK_ballistic_trajectory.PNG

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 10 Dec 2017, 08:56
by barrelnut
I'm sure that the engagement window would be brief, maybe 60 seconds? But if an F-35 would be flying in 30,000 ft and the launch of a ballistic missile would be detected and it's trajectory calculated in 10 seconds, that would still leave 50 seconds for an AMRAAM to fly to the interception point. And I believe it would cover 50 - 60 kilometers in 50 seconds, right?

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 11 Dec 2017, 00:14
by usnvo
steve2267 wrote:From the PDF in my previous post, this graphic suggests that any F-35 CAP would have to be uncomfortably close to China and/or Russia, if not over one or the other in order to simplify the intercept problem as much as possible (i.e. make it more of a 2D intercept problem than a fully 3D crossing intercept.)

NORK_ballistic_trajectory.PNG


Except that any ballistic missile is travelling much slower than an AMRAAM, at least for the first minute to minute and a half when you can engage them, and is a sitting duck target as long as the missile is sent to the right basket. So you can engage from all points of the compass. Without actually working it out and using back of the napkin calculations the engagement zone is going to be an ellipse, while you may be able to engage from 35nm in front, you can probably still engage from 20nm behind the launch point and 25nm from either side. Missile debris falling on China or Russia may be an issue but staying out of their airspace is easy. It is not like there are Chinese or Russian Radars or SAMs stationed on the physical border.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 11 Dec 2017, 00:42
by steve2267
usnvo wrote:Except that any ballistic missile is travelling much slower than an AMRAAM, at least for the first minute to minute and a half when you can engage them, and is a sitting duck target as long as the missile is sent to the right basket. So you can engage from all points of the compass. Without actually working it out and using back of the napkin calculations the engagement zone is going to be an ellipse, while you may be able to engage from 35nm in front, you can probably still engage from 20nm behind the launch point and 25nm from either side. Missile debris falling on China or Russia may be an issue but staying out of their airspace is easy. It is not like there are Chinese or Russian Radars or SAMs stationed on the physical border.


If you are saying that hitting the climbing ICBM from the side-aspect should not be a problem, I agree with you. I re-thought my earlier statement(s), and a climbing ICBM from the side will only be difficult in that it is a) climbing, b) accelerating and c) the shot may be a high deflection shot. On the other hand, the missile is certainly NOT jinking / attempting evasive maneuvers. From that perspective, it is presenting a fairly predictable track.

I do believe the altitude vs time curve poses the biggest challenge to an AIM-120, and for that reason, intercept must occur within the first 90-120sec.

Re: F-35s Could Shoot Down North Korean Missiles

Unread postPosted: 11 Dec 2017, 05:10
by usnvo
steve2267 wrote:
If you are saying that hitting the climbing ICBM from the side-aspect should not be a problem, I agree with you. I re-thought my earlier statement(s), and a climbing ICBM from the side will only be difficult in that it is a) climbing, b) accelerating and c) the shot may be a high deflection shot. On the other hand, the missile is certainly NOT jinking / attempting evasive maneuvers. From that perspective, it is presenting a fairly predictable track.

I do believe the altitude vs time curve poses the biggest challenge to an AIM-120, and for that reason, intercept must occur within the first 90-120sec.


I agree completely, that was why I think 35nm or so is probably the maximum range you could reliably expect to engage with a stock AIM-120 given reaction time and the target flight profile. I would expect that an up and over flight profile would be required with the AIM-120 coming down on the target to avoid getting into a tail chase situation. But assuming the AIM-120 is in the right basket, hitting a non-maneuvering, no countermeasure target would be easy, even if it is going Mach 2.