New player on the board? Poland wants the F-35 too.

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ricnunes

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Unread post03 Mar 2019, 21:49

optimist wrote:
ricnunes wrote:
steve2267 wrote:Harrumph!

No Rafale!?!

I thought the Rafale was the piece de la resistance, the creme-de-la-creme of the 4th gen world!?! Slayer of dragons... master of active stealth... denier of WVR supremacy?


Perhaps the Rafale "active stealth" was so darn effective that the Poles weren't able to see it and thus weren't able to shortlist it, LOL :mrgreen:

I'd be careful about including rafale-f35 is other threads. It makes it harder to encourage them to stay on the rafale thread.


Excellent point indeed!
My apologies then :wink:
A 4th/4.5th gen fighter aircraft stands about as much chance against a F-35 as a guns-only Sabre has against a Viper.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post04 Mar 2019, 05:14

Honestly, this is nothing new or even surprising. As Poland has made it clear that it would "likely" acquire the F-35 at some point in the future.



My question is will this influence Finland's selection on a New Fighter?
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magitsu

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Unread post04 Mar 2019, 10:38

Corsair1963 wrote:My question is will this influence Finland's selection on a New Fighter?

Unlikely. But it tells about who Poland wants to add geostrategic links to. No idea who decided that Rafale wouldn't appear. It's at least cheaper this way for them to lose early.

Rafale is basically the only plane that offers a real alternative to F-35 if somehow it shouldn't be picked. Different geostrategic choice, different weapons systems, no ITAR.

Certainly SH/G is an alternative if the geostrategic choice would be preferred but F-35 wouldn't work. But that's very unlikely. Political risks are bigger at this point. The trouble is that France isn't really a viable alternative to the US in this regard. Yes the French do a bit of Baltic patrol too, but they really care more about their former digs wherever in the world they are.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post04 Mar 2019, 10:53

magitsu wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:My question is will this influence Finland's selection on a New Fighter?

Unlikely. But it tells about who Poland wants to add geostrategic links to. No idea who decided that Rafale wouldn't appear. It's at least cheaper this way for them to lose early.

Rafale is basically the only plane that offers a real alternative to F-35 if somehow it shouldn't be picked. Different geostrategic choice, different weapons systems, no ITAR.

Certainly SH/G is an alternative if the geostrategic choice would be preferred but F-35 wouldn't work. But that's very unlikely. Political risks are bigger at this point. The trouble is that France isn't really a viable alternative to the US in this regard. Yes the French do a bit of Baltic patrol too, but they really care more about their former digs wherever in the world they are.



I doubt the Rafale is cheaper than the F-35A. Nor, that Finland would prefer even if it was. Honestly, in my opinion the selection of the F-35 by Poland. Would just increase the odds that Finland would follow...... :wink:


"IMHO"
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magitsu

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Unread post04 Mar 2019, 10:55

For Poland deciding to want specifically just 32 "5 Gen" planes makes sense, because they are replacing MiG-29 and Su-22 while continuing to use F-16C/D. Their 48 F-16s are only from 2003.

Rafale's different everything would be stupid given there are already AMRAAM, JASSM etc. in use. For Finland it's a bit different calculation because everything changes anyway (though NASAMS uses AMRAAM and will continue with new jet).

Poland buying F-35 doesn't increase the odds. But if they had bought anything else it could've mattered. There are so many F-35 customers nearby anyway. Norway being the most important, because their state owned Kongsberg owns 49,9% of the Hornet maintainer company Patria (Fi gov 50,1%).

https://www.defence24.pl/mysliwiec-5-ge ... -komentarz
Last edited by magitsu on 04 Mar 2019, 10:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post04 Mar 2019, 10:59

magitsu wrote:For Poland deciding to want specifically just 32 "5 Gen" planes makes sense, because they are replacing MiG-29 and Su-22 while continuing to use F-16C/D. Their 48 F-16s are only from 2003.

Rafale's different everything would be stupid given there are already AMRAAM, JASSM etc. in use.

https://www.defence24.pl/mysliwiec-5-ge ... -komentarz



Buying the F-35 would give Poland the same mix as the USAF. (ie F-16/F-35) Which, must be an attractive option on a number of levels.
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magitsu

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Unread post04 Mar 2019, 11:05

Corsair1963 wrote:Buying the F-35 would give Poland the same mix as the USAF. (ie F-16/F-35) Which, must be an attractive option on a number of levels.

Yeah, here's a google translated quote from that superb Polish defense site.

"We want to buy 32 multi-role aircraft of the 5th generation. I expect immediate action from both the head of the General Staff and the head of the Armament Inspectorate to carry out this priority task. This aircraft is very important as it strengthens the combat capabilities of the F-16s currently in use. We are determined to replace worn out post-Soviet airplanes that have no battle value. The tragic case from last year in which a MiG-29 pilot was killed also makes the Harpia program, the purchase of 5th generation planes, our priority."

- Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak

The Poles have a bit more ambition than ability currently, which the article also notes.

"The real assessment of the decision to acquire 5th generation aircraft in the Harpia program, or rather specific 5th generation aircraft, will be possible at the earliest when the purchase agreement for 32 fighters is concluded. Until then, we should only observe the MON closely, with the knowledge that the Harpia is just one of many programs that should be implemented urgently or have been delayed for years. At the same time, it will also be one of the few most expensive projects, the value of which in the period 2017-2026 is to amount to PLN 185 billion."

This paragraph is even better at pointing out slightly unreasonable expectations.

"The pace of introducing new machines may also be a problem. It is planned that the Harpia contract will be concluded in 2020 with the delivery of aircraft within 2 years. The real delivery time of the F-35 aircraft, in an optimistic version, is 3 to 5 years from the conclusion of the contract, while the Armament Inspectorate is currently in the analytical and conceptual phase and at least officially has not yet started the contract. As the example of the Vistula program shows, the Harpia negotiations can take a lot of time."
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laos

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Unread post04 Mar 2019, 14:50

magitsu wrote: Their 48 F-16s are only from 2003.


First delivery of F-16 to Poland was on 11.11.2006. Last delivery was on 12.12.2008.
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magitsu

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Unread post04 Mar 2019, 17:13

laos wrote:
magitsu wrote: Their 48 F-16s are only from 2003.


First delivery of F-16 to Poland was on 11.11.2006. Last delivery was on 12.12.2008.

Indeed, only around half of their service life at most.

Another Polish MiG-29 unfortunately crashed today. https://defence-blog.com/news/polish-mi ... keoff.html
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XanderCrews

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Unread post05 Mar 2019, 22:56

The poles are going to want to buy American because it strengthens the partnership.

I don't know if I'm recalling correctly but the reason Poland has F-16s was they basically said "if you were willing to sell us those, we would not say no to buying them." and basically bypassed all European options. Poland and Cz Rep were also all too happy to host the US's ABM shield that was canceled, and Poland a few other eastern bloc nations have been vocal on the US establishing bases there. They aren't stupid. Getting US forces there basically creates a kind of "hostage" scenario where Russia can't attack Poland without getting the US directly involved. That's way better than all the treaties and promises and alliances on paper.
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hythelday

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Unread post05 Mar 2019, 23:35

XanderCrews wrote:Poland and Cz Rep were also all too happy to host the US's ABM shield that was canceled


AEGIS Ashore is being built in Poland.

Poland should establish their F-35 force ASAP, then sell their F-16 fleet while it still has some life in it (looks like there is still a decent market for second-hand Vipers) and double their Lightning force. 64 F-35s would be nothing to sneeze at.
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Unread post05 Mar 2019, 23:48

Imagine the AEGIS Ashore data-linked to the F-35...

Missile limit, what missile limit? :mrgreen:
"The early bird gets the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese."
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Unread post06 Mar 2019, 00:29

SpudmanWP wrote:Imagine the AEGIS Ashore data-linked to the F-35...
Missile limit, what missile limit? :mrgreen:

excellent
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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Corsair1963

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Unread post06 Mar 2019, 08:33

SpudmanWP wrote:Imagine the AEGIS Ashore data-linked to the F-35...

Missile limit, what missile limit? :mrgreen:



Same applies to F-35B's and F-35C's based at Sea..... :devil:
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Corsair1963

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Unread post06 Mar 2019, 08:34

hythelday wrote:
XanderCrews wrote:Poland and Cz Rep were also all too happy to host the US's ABM shield that was canceled


AEGIS Ashore is being built in Poland.

Poland should establish their F-35 force ASAP, then sell their F-16 fleet while it still has some life in it (looks like there is still a decent market for second-hand Vipers) and double their Lightning force. 64 F-35s would be nothing to sneeze at.


Odds are the 32 F-35's would be just the first batch for Poland. Like with many other Air Forces.... :wink:
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