Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuses on

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 02:05
by spazsinbad
Air Force’s proposed $169 billion budget focuses on ‘great power competition,’ readiness, establishing Space Force
10 Feb 2020 Charles Pope, Secretary of the Air Force Public Affairs

"ARLINGTON, Va. (AFNS) -- The Department of the Air Force released a $169 billion budget proposal Feb. 10, which for the first time includes funding for the newly created U.S. Space Force while also focusing funds to help both services modernize, address threats from Russia and China, and sustain readiness. The spending plan for fiscal year 2021 carries a $900 million increase from the previous year. But unlike 2020, funding for 2021 is apportioned differently, with $153.6 billion directed to the Air Force and $15.4 billion for the Space Force....

Specifically, the budget calls for spending $5.8 billion to purchase 48 F-35A Lightning II aircraft. It provides $3 billion to purchase 15 KC-46A Pegasus tankers and $1.4 billion for 12 F-15EX fighters....

...Threaded throughout the entire budget document is a focus on people and readiness. Funding to pay for flying hours increases in fiscal year 2021 to $6.6 billion. The budget envisions an increase in the Department’s force of active duty, Guard and Reserve by 1,500 personnel. That would bring the uniformed force to 512,100. Since April 2018, the Air Force has increased overall readiness by 16% and increased readiness for frontline units, known as pacing squadrons, by 35%....

...While Department of the Air Force officials say the 2021 budget request is the result of rigorous analysis and a series of “tough but necessary choices,” it represents only the starting point for the budget process. The proposal now goes to Congress for its consideration and what is likely to be months of deliberation, debate and revisions. Under the typical schedule, the budget for the new fiscal year must be approved and signed into law by the president by Oct. 1, 2020, when the new fiscal year begins."

Source: https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display ... ion-readi/

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 02:49
by Corsair1963
We are along way from the final budget....

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 03:25
by weasel1962
Total FY21 budget incl USN request is for 115 fighters (48 F-35A, 10 F-35B and 21 F-35C, 24 F-18E/F and 12 F-15EX) for FY 21.

FY 20 enacted was 128 comprising 98 F-35 (62 A, 16 B and 20 C) + 24 F-18E/F and 6 F-15EX (The 2 tech demo not included).

Nugget below.

FY 2021 Program:Continues procurement of the F-15EX, which will initially refresh the F-15C/D fleet with a planned buy of 144 aircraft, with the potential to refresh the remainder of the F-15C/D fleet and the F-15E fleet. Continues the F-15E Radar Modernization Program (RMP) to replace the legacy radar using existing technology from other aviation platforms and solve parts obsolescence problems to provide improved reliability and performance (increased synthetic aperture radar range and resolution), including air-to-air and air-to-ground modes. Continues engineering and manufacturing development efforts for the Eagle Passive/Active Warning Survivability System (EPAWSS) to improve F-15E survivability by enhancing the ability to detect, deny, or defeat air and ground threats. Ends F-15C/D modernization efforts, except the safety-of-flight longeron upgrade program, in anticipation of F-15C/D fleet retirement by the end of FY 2026.


The F-15EX will replace the C/Ds.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 04:02
by Corsair1963
I doubt the F-15EX will last more than 2-3 years. As the US Defense Budget gets tighter and tighter. Hell, FY2021 Budget alone is going to be a Knock-down, Drag out fight among the Services and Congress. Let alone FY2022-2023....


This isn't going to be pretty! :shock:


:2c:

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 04:35
by marsavian
with the potential to refresh the remainder of the F-15C/D fleet and the F-15E fleet.


Boeing mission creep, we vant to replace all your F-15s ! ;) Beware the ANG Trojan Eagle ! ;)

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 04:40
by weasel1962
wait until they lose PCA...what else can they replace with F-15s?

Don't want the talk to be dominated by F-15s. Table below reflects US only. F-35 appears to have shortfall of 7 for funding up to lot 14.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 04:49
by marsavian
Corsair1963 wrote:I doubt the F-15EX will last more than 2-3 years. As the US Defense Budget gets tighter and tighter. Hell, FY2021 Budget alone is going to be a Knock-down, Drag out fight among the Services and Congress. Let alone FY2022-2023....

This isn't going to be pretty! :shock:


The only thing that will stop F-15EX is a new President with a different mindset.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 04:53
by weasel1962
...That will be in 2025 for budget for FY 2026 by which time, the F-15EX program would have funded 80 or more.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 04:57
by marsavian
So you think Trump has 2020 already in the bag ? You're probably right ;). Yes they will probably replace all the ANG F-15C if Trump wins but any further into F-15E stock will depend on future compliant Presidents.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 05:27
by Corsair1963
marsavian wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:I doubt the F-15EX will last more than 2-3 years. As the US Defense Budget gets tighter and tighter. Hell, FY2021 Budget alone is going to be a Knock-down, Drag out fight among the Services and Congress. Let alone FY2022-2023....

This isn't going to be pretty! :shock:


The only thing that will stop F-15EX is a new President with a different mindset.



LOL :doh:

I suggest you do some reading on the brewing battle over the FY2021 Defense Budget.

WASHINGTON – The US Navy’s fiscal year 2021 budget slashes 10 planned ships over the next five years, a move a senior Navy official said shows a commitment to not hollow out the service to buy ships.

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/ ... iral-says/


WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump’s defense budget request for fiscal 2021 includes major investments in research and development portfolios as well as “crucial” technologies as part of what the Pentagon is branding an “irreversible implementation” of the National Defense Strategy.


However, the budget also features overall cuts to the Army and Navy top lines, as well as the divestment of legacy platforms from the Air Force.



https://www.defensenews.com/smr/federal ... cy-planes/


Air Force makes reductions to B-1s, A-10s, Global Hawk drones and more in FY21 budget requesthttps://www.defensenews.com/smr/federal-budget/2020/02/10/air-force-makes-reductions-to-b-1s-a-10s-global-hawk-drones-and-more-in-fy21-budget-request/

Budget Cuts 28 Legacy Tankers Despite KC-46 DelaysFeb. 10, 2020 | By Brian W. Everstine

https://www.airforcemag.com/air-force-b ... ty-issues/


Need I go on.............. :?

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 05:29
by Corsair1963
marsavian wrote:So you think Trump has 2020 already in the bag ? You're probably right ;). Yes they will probably replace all the ANG F-15C if Trump wins but any further into F-15E stock will depend on future compliant Presidents.



The State of Florida is pushing the USAF to replace it's ANG F-15C's with New F-35A's..... :wink:



FYI- Trump can't win another term without the State of Florida. (something to consider)

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 05:46
by Corsair1963
weasel1962 wrote:wait until they lose PCA...what else can they replace with F-15s?

Don't want the talk to be dominated by F-15s. Table below reflects US only. F-35 appears to have shortfall of 7 for funding up to lot 14.


Clearly, F-35 Production needs to increase to cover the current shortfalls.


As for the F-15's they can be easily replaced with additional F-35's. Then by time the PCA arrives it will start to replace the F-22's. When that is complete. They in turn would start to replace early production F-35's. Giving the future USAF in 2040+ a mix of 5th and 6th Generation Fighters. (and likely drones)


This is the whole point. The F-15(EX) is nearly obsolete now. While, the F-35 is vastly more capable. So, better to close the gap now by buying additional F-35's. Until the PCA/NGAD comes online in 2040. (if not later)

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 05:56
by marsavian
Corsair1963, I'm not sure anyone in Congress is willing to fight the President politically on these F-15EX, they didn't last time as I predicted and they are not coming in more expensive than the F-35 so they are not an obvious budgetary target. The best one can hope for is that they only replace the F-15C/D fleet and not the F-15E fleet too. That should be the PCA's job. The PCA won't replace the F-22, it's a different type of bird.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 05:56
by Corsair1963
USAF Budget Request Flat in 2021

Feb. 10, 2020 | By John A. Tirpak

QUOTE:

Overall procurement funding declined by $1.4 billion, to $25.4 billion in 2021. Funding for aircraft and missile procurement remained flat, at $17.89 billion and $1.86 billion, respectively, but ammunition purchases dropped by $1 billion, and “other procurement” fell by $600 million.

The procurement request funds just 60 fighters, including 48 F-35As and 12 F-15EXs. The Air Force has said repeatedly it needs to buy 72 fighters a year to stop the aging of its fighter force, and the F-35A request again falls short of the 60 per year the service said it planned to be buying by now.

https://www.airforcemag.com/usaf-budget ... t-in-2021/

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 06:00
by Corsair1963
marsavian wrote:Corsair1963, I'm not sure anyone in Congress is willing to fight the President politically on these F-15EX, they didn't last time as I predicted and they are not coming in more expensive than the F-35 so they are not an obvious budgetary target. The best one can hope for is that they only replace the F-15C/D fleet and not the F-15E fleet too.



Trump doesn't even know what the F-15EX is.... :|

Point here is the budget is getting very very tight. So, some very hard choices are coming....


Expect the battle for the FY 2021 to be one hell of a ride. :crazypilot:

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 06:00
by Corsair1963
marsavian wrote:Corsair1963, I'm not sure anyone in Congress is willing to fight the President politically on these F-15EX, they didn't last time as I predicted and they are not coming in more expensive than the F-35 so they are not an obvious budgetary target. The best one can hope for is that they only replace the F-15C/D fleet and not the F-15E fleet too.



Trump doesn't even know what the F-15EX is.... :|

Point here is the budget is getting very very tight. So, some very hard choices are coming....


Expect the battle for the FY 2021 to be one hell of a ride. :crazypilot:

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 06:05
by marsavian
I beg to differ, he knows what a Super Hornet is, he knows that the F-35 is 'invisible' but above all he sure knows who Boeing is ! ;)

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 06:08
by Corsair1963
marsavian wrote:I beg to differ, he knows what a Super Hornet is, he knows that the F-35 is 'invisible' but above all he sure knows who Boeing is ! ;)



The USN just announced it was ending production of the Super Hornet. While, using the funding to buy additional F-35C's and to develop the NGAD. (formerly F/A-XX)

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 06:10
by usnvo
I still think the whole F-15EX effort is a move to save the future PCA program, at least as currently envisioned.

If you start replacing F-15C/D with F-35A, a significant part of your future force that will be replaced by PCA goes away. That leaves you with just the F-22s, hardly enough to justify some new fighter. You have to push out the F-15 aircraft long enough to still maintain a significant force of dedicated Air-to-Air fighters. By buying more F-15s, you can replace the F-22s first and then the F-15s. Replacing brand new F-35As is probably a non-starter with Congress.

The Navy appears to be doing pretty much the same with the F-18E/F Block III. If you don't buy new F-18E/F Blk IIIs to replaced the Blk Is, and instead buy F-35Cs, eventually your justification for some fancy new fighter is destroyed.

In any case, if you push out the replacement too far by replacing F-15/F-18s with F-35s, you may not be able to justify a new manned fighter. So buying new old aircraft today, you keep the possibility of future super-whammodyne fighters alive.

But then that is probably just my cynical nature.

But there is another reason to not buy F-35s too fast and that is an orderly transition of aircraft. This is beneficial to the industrial base, future budgets, and the personnel transition. Buy a few hundred F-35s a year and you end up with block obsolescence again.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 07:41
by spazsinbad
Navy 2021 Budget Relatively Flat; Only 8 Ships Funded, Ship Retirements Accelerated
10 Feb 2020 Richard R. Burgess

"...The Navy plans to fund 121 aircraft with $17.2 billion in 2021, compared with $19.7 billion enacted in 2020. These include 24 F/A-18E/F Super Hornet strike fighters; 10 F-35B and 10 F-35C Lightning II strike fighters for the Marine Corps and 11 F-35Cs for the Navy; four E-2D Advanced Hawkeye early warning aircraft; six CMV-222B Osprey tiltrotor carrier onboard delivery aircraft; three MV-22B Osprey transports; five KC-130J Super Hercules tanker/transports; seven CH-53K King Stallion transport helicopters; 36 TH-73A training helicopters; and five VH-92A presidential transport helicopters."

Source: https://seapowermagazine.org/navy-2021- ... ps-funded/

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 08:03
by sunstersun
Should force the 60 F-35's on the airforce.

nvm wait congress did.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 08:26
by quicksilver
Corsair1963 wrote:
marsavian wrote:I beg to differ, he knows what a Super Hornet is, he knows that the F-35 is 'invisible' but above all he sure knows who Boeing is ! ;)



The USN just announced it was ending production of the Super Hornet. While, using the funding to buy additional F-35C's and to develop the NGAD. (formerly F/A-XX)


Good find Corsair. Here’s the link —

https://news.usni.org/2020/02/10/navy-c ... on-fighter

Kaboom.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 08:30
by quicksilver
usnvo wrote:I still think the whole F-15EX effort is a move to save the future PCA program, at least as currently envisioned.

If you start replacing F-15C/D with F-35A, a significant part of your future force that will be replaced by PCA goes away. That leaves you with just the F-22s, hardly enough to justify some new fighter. You have to push out the F-15 aircraft long enough to still maintain a significant force of dedicated Air-to-Air fighters. By buying more F-15s, you can replace the F-22s first and then the F-15s. Replacing brand new F-35As is probably a non-starter with Congress.

The Navy appears to be doing pretty much the same with the F-18E/F Block III. If you don't buy new F-18E/F Blk IIIs to replaced the Blk Is, and instead buy F-35Cs, eventually your justification for some fancy new fighter is destroyed.

In any case, if you push out the replacement too far by replacing F-15/F-18s with F-35s, you may not be able to justify a new manned fighter. So buying new old aircraft today, you keep the possibility of future super-whammodyne fighters alive.

But then that is probably just my cynical nature.

But there is another reason to not buy F-35s too fast and that is an orderly transition of aircraft. This is beneficial to the industrial base, future budgets, and the personnel transition. Buy a few hundred F-35s a year and you end up with block obsolescence again.


Actually, you’re quite lucid. It may not turn out exactly that way, but it’s a fair assessment imo. See the article above Re: truncation of the Blk III SH. Tighter budgets ahead and the Navy has been over-invested in TACAIR for years. It (...’the madness’) had to stop somewhere. Betcha there were some fun conversations in SecDef’s ‘night Court’ budget sessions. St Louis got ‘TX, EX and (maybe) NGAD and PCA pieces’, but not ‘SH, TX, EX and (maybe) NGAD and PCA pieces.’ Reinvigorates the outlooks in Lexington Park and Ridgecrest too.

I wonder what Dennis Muillenberg and Pat Shanahan are doing these days...

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 10:05
by Corsair1963
quicksilver wrote:
Good find Corsair. Here’s the link —

https://news.usni.org/2020/02/10/navy-c ... on-fighter

Kaboom.


My guess is the US Navy will now increase orders for the F-35C to more like 25-30 per year. In addition to fully funding the NGAD. This will allow them to field two full F-35C Squadrons per year thru 2030 and beyond. (very likely) While, preparing for the future...

As for the F-15EX that will likely depend on a number of factors. From how well the economy is doing, to future defense budgets, to possible export orders, etc. Yet, it's long term survival is very questionable in my opinion....


Sad part is if they wanted to throw Boeing a "BONE". Far better to increase funding for the T-7A Advance Trainer and/or MQ-25A Naval Tanker. As a matter of fact they cut some of the funding for the former in the FY 2021 Budget! (crazy)

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 10:32
by Corsair1963
usnvo wrote:I still think the whole F-15EX effort is a move to save the future PCA program, at least as currently envisioned.

If you start replacing F-15C/D with F-35A, a significant part of your future force that will be replaced by PCA goes away. That leaves you with just the F-22s, hardly enough to justify some new fighter. You have to push out the F-15 aircraft long enough to still maintain a significant force of dedicated Air-to-Air fighters. By buying more F-15s, you can replace the F-22s first and then the F-15s. Replacing brand new F-35As is probably a non-starter with Congress.

The Navy appears to be doing pretty much the same with the F-18E/F Block III. If you don't buy new F-18E/F Blk IIIs to replaced the Blk Is, and instead buy F-35Cs, eventually your justification for some fancy new fighter is destroyed.

In any case, if you push out the replacement too far by replacing F-15/F-18s with F-35s, you may not be able to justify a new manned fighter. So buying new old aircraft today, you keep the possibility of future super-whammodyne fighters alive.

But then that is probably just my cynical nature.

But there is another reason to not buy F-35s too fast and that is an orderly transition of aircraft. This is beneficial to the industrial base, future budgets, and the personnel transition. Buy a few hundred F-35s a year and you end up with block obsolescence again.


One of the craziest things I've read in a long time??? So, let's see the USAF should continue to buy 4th Generation Fighters. Which, are nearly obsolete today and will even cost more to own and operate long-term compared to additional F-35's! Nor, do I see on how buying the aforementioned would save the PCA??? As for one it doesn't need saving. As it won't "start" to come online for twenty years and slow at that. Which, would start by replacing the current fleet of ~ 186 F-22's in service today. When that is complete the New PCA would start to replace early production F-35's. That would be 25-30 years old by that time....Remember, like the F-35's today it will take decades to replace all of the previous generation types...

Actually, the Navy plan would be similar. By buying New F-35C's to replace Hornets and early Super Hornets today. Which, would be follow by more Super Hornets. Until the NGAD starts to come online. When that is complete they would start to replace early F-35C's.....In both cases just the natural progression. Which, would take a good twenty years plus to complete. With modest numbers ordered each year long term.

Honestly, this is nothing new at all. They have been following a similar progression for the last 70 years.... :wink:

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 11:30
by weasel1962
usnvo wrote:If you start replacing F-15C/D with F-35A, a significant part of your future force that will be replaced by PCA goes away. That leaves you with just the F-22s, hardly enough to justify some new fighter.


Spot on. The current planned PCA program definition per CBO is 414 PCA at $300m each which is $124 billion including development costs. Anything less would be too high a development (and thus unit) cost.

The worst case scenario is elected jokers thinking the F-35 is a magic plane and the PCA is not required.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 11:35
by Corsair1963
The US has made it very clear it wants to maintain it's "Technological Edge". The PCA/NGAD aren't going anywhere.


That said, I do expect both programs to gain partners as time goes. With Japan being a perfect example.....

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 11:39
by weasel1962
Absolute rubbish. The PCA is going to be like the F-22. US only.

What the planners will want to avoid are a repeat of F-22 numbers.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 13:47
by quicksilver
“If you start replacing F-15C/D with F-35A, a significant part of your future force that will be replaced by PCA goes away. That leaves you with just the F-22s, hardly enough to justify some new fighter. You have to push out the F-15 aircraft long enough to still maintain a significant force of dedicated Air-to-Air fighters. By buying more F-15s, you can replace the F-22s first and then the F-15s. Replacing brand new F-35As is probably a non-starter with Congress.“ — usnvo

USAF not gonna get the EX numbers they want either as the sunrise of cost realism burns away all the marketing mist. It will be $100M+/jet if it’s a penny, and they’ll end up w/ fewer.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 15:25
by steve2267
quicksilver wrote:USAF not gonna get the EX numbers they want either as the sunrise of cost realism burns away all the marketing mist. It will be $100M+/jet if it’s a penny, and they’ll end up w/ fewer.


Some sources said the USAF never wanted the EX. If true, then the EX would seem to be a sacrificial lamb -- if the USAF doesn't get as many "as they want", c'est la vie, cut them "boo, hoo, how will we ever survive? sniffle sniffle"... just as long as PCA isn't touched.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 16:04
by quicksilver
steve2267 wrote:
quicksilver wrote:USAF not gonna get the EX numbers they want either as the sunrise of cost realism burns away all the marketing mist. It will be $100M+/jet if it’s a penny, and they’ll end up w/ fewer.


Some sources said the USAF never wanted the EX. If true, then the EX would seem to be a sacrificial lamb -- if the USAF doesn't get as many "as they want", c'est la vie, cut them "boo, hoo, how will we ever survive? sniffle sniffle"... just as long as PCA isn't touched.


USAF got ‘leveraged’ into the buy. But, so much for the BA claims that the jet was gonna be $90M-ish, and later $80M. Mark my words — $100M+. It may end up looking like the Pamela Anderson/Jon Peters marriage. :doh:

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 16:37
by steve2267
Perhaps I did not express my point as well I could have. Which is...

Whether the USAF didn't want the EX, or got leveraged into the USAF, I suspect they care not for the EX. Going to make us buy it, ok fine, we'll fly it. But if buying the EX gives us a lamb we can sacrifice later so that we can keep PCA, so much the better.

Am I tracking?

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 16:51
by quicksilver
steve2267 wrote:Perhaps I did not express my point as well I could have. Which is...

Whether the USAF didn't want the EX, or got leveraged into the USAF, I suspect they care not for the EX. Going to make us buy it, ok fine, we'll fly it. But if buying the EX gives us a lamb we can sacrifice later so that we can keep PCA, so much the better.

Am I tracking?


I don’t think PCA has ever been in jeopardy. Call it what we wish, the EX buy was a consequence of an unsolicited proposal by BA; for a service looking forward to a whole lotta compelling bills to pay for other stuff, it remains a head-scratcher.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 11 Feb 2020, 17:50
by XanderCrews
quicksilver wrote: Mark my words — $100M+. It may end up looking like the Pamela Anderson/Jon Peters marriage. :doh:



oh indeed. The numbers were more massaged than a Thailand parlor during fleet week

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 12 Feb 2020, 02:19
by marauder2048
If you look at the FY2020/FY2021 PCA/NGAD funding profile and compare it to the pre-F15EX FY19 profile,
it's clear that PCA/NGAD funding took a massive hit.

The Air Force had indicated in the F-22 Restart study that even funding the $1.6 billion to re-wing/re-longeron
the F-15C/D fleet would compete with resources for NGAD/PCA.

Hard to imagine why the Air Force would want to exacerbate that situation further with far more expensive
new builds especially since the cheaper F-15C/D SLEP still results in a larger fleet (if you accept the premise
that politically, PCA requires a minimum fleet replacement size).

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 12 Feb 2020, 04:03
by weasel1962
Jobs program aside...Its not just F-15s, its 36 4G (incl F-18s) and the give, stopping SH procurement (restoring B buys).

As long as the numbers look like the attached, EX is still going to happen.
cost.png


Budget wise, regardless of how numbers are massaged, a budget limit is a budget limit. The longeron replacements are still budgeted so its a case of both replacement and new builds.

If EPAWSS needs to be in place for survivability, then it makes some sense to be in a new build than in an aircraft at the tail end of its service life.

F-35B: FY 21: 10, FY 22: 17, FY 23 -25: 20 per year.
F-35C: FY 22: 21, FY 22: 20, FY 23-24: 26, 26, FY 25: 28.
Remaining 115 B+130 C = 245 or 41 per year until FY 2031. This will catch up to the 45 a year FRP for USN F-35 SAR.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 12 Feb 2020, 04:16
by weasel1962
Looking at USAF projections.

The F-35A is retained at 48 per year until FY 2025.
F-15EX is plotted at FY 22: 12, FY 23: 14, FY 24 & 25: 19 each. So by the Trump leaves office, it would be 84 with "only" 60 to go...

Will not reach 72 USAF fighter buy per year by FY 2025 even with the F-15EX...

The expected minimum procurement quantity for F-15EX is 144 aircraft (a combination of 2 in RDTE (PE27134F); 6 in F015E0 (Line #3); and 136 in F015EX (Line #4). F-15EX is currently a Middle Tier Acquisition program, not a Major Defense Acquisition Program. Once the program transitions to a Major Defense Acquisition Program and the Acquisition Program Baseline is approved, the total program quantity for F-15EX will be established. All numbers are based on the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency's initial Non-Advocate Cost Assessment and will be refined for major milestones and on an annual basis.

The F-15EX will be based on the 2-seat F-15QA (Qatar) configuration upgraded with USAF-only capabilities, including the Eagle Passive Active Warning and Survivability System (EPAWSS) and the Suite 9.1 Operational Flight Program (OFP) software. With two seats, it will be multirole-capable and operable by one or two aircrew. Many F-15C/Ds are beyond their service life and have serious structures risks, wire chafing issues, and obsolete parts. Readiness goals are unachievable due to continuous structural inspections, time-consuming repairs, and on-going modernization efforts. The average F-15C/D is 36 years old with over 8,400 flight hours; the oldest F-15C was delivered in 1979. F-15EX logistics, maintenance, and training will heavily leverage existing the F-15 infrastructure.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 12 Feb 2020, 04:19
by Corsair1963
Simple fact is the F-35 is ramping up to full production in the next couple of years. While, the price continues to decline. That trend shows no signs of even slowing down. As orders for the new Stealth Fighter grows by the day.


The F-15EX on the other hand is a few years from even entering service. Which, besides costing more is vastly less capable than additional F-35's. This with the back drop of ever and ever tighter US Defense Budgets.


My guess is FY2020 order for 8 and the FY2021 order for 12 will likely go thru...Yet, past that is extremely "questionable"


IMHO

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 12 Feb 2020, 04:28
by quicksilver
12 EX jets for $1.269B= $105.8M

And that assumes no AP spent last year...

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 12 Feb 2020, 04:30
by weasel1962
FY 21 budgets a lot 15 buy. It also does not appear to share sentiments that the unit flyaway cost will reduce significantly thereafter (see flyaway unit cost line).

F-35 flyaway unit cost projection.png

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 12 Feb 2020, 04:33
by weasel1962
quicksilver wrote:12 EX jets for $1.269B= $105.8M

And that assumes no AP spent last year...


and it will go up to $117m per plane by FY 25 (total gross unit costs, not flyaway unit) or $17m differential with F-35 by FY 2025.

Re: Air Force’s proposed $169 billion [FY2021] budget focuse

Unread postPosted: 12 Feb 2020, 06:28
by Corsair1963
weasel1962 wrote:
quicksilver wrote:12 EX jets for $1.269B= $105.8M

And that assumes no AP spent last year...


and it will go up to $117m per plane by FY 25 (total gross unit costs, not flyaway unit) or $17m differential with F-35 by FY 2025.



In short the case will become harder and harder for the F-15EX. Especially, if the US Defense Budgets continues to tighten...