FY2020 DoD Budget

Program progress, politics, orders, and speculation
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mixelflick

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Unread post28 Jun 2019, 15:59

Corsair1963 wrote:
SpudmanWP wrote:But now all of the Reps in Blue states will actually come out and swing the pop back in his favor...

The party in power almost always loses the house in off years, it's the norm.

Besides, it's not the pop that he needs to win.

Also, his chances get better the more the left fragments and bows at the feet of the fringe-left.



To early to say many many factors. Including who the Democrats select to challenge Trump??? Yet, I still do like his odds....


I agree with this.

People vote with their wallets, and the economy is unquestionably strong. Arguably the strongest in decades. Only Sanders has any real chance, as he echoes the same "the system is rigged against you" message that Trump ran on. Bernie takes that a step further however, with "free" everything.

Bernie would be a much, much better candidate than the rest. He is the only one who comes across as genuine, and really believes in his ideas/message. They're not my politics, but I have to hand it to him - he believes in what he's saying.
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marauder2048

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Unread post28 Jun 2019, 23:49

It's a sad story.

The CAPE creature who instigated it (Daigle) in gone.
Shanahan is gone.

And the AF Seceretary who had the misfortune to be embroiled in it has resigned.

But there's still collateral damage which hopefully that committees that ring-fenced
funding until the Air Force provides some coherent and consistent reasoning
(not at all in evidence at the hearings) will clean up.
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spazsinbad

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Unread post04 Jul 2019, 06:28

Bipartisan Support for Buying More Fighter Jets
03 Jul 2019 Jon Harper

"...The fiscal year 2020 national defense authorization bill approved June 27 by the GOP-controlled Senate would authorize $10 billion to procure 94 F-35 joint strike fighters, 16 more than the Trump administration requested.

The legislation “prioritizes investments that ensure the U.S. military sustains or regains our comparative combat advantage in the current climate of great-power competition, … enabling the forces to modernize and equip themselves with the most advanced and capable fifth-generation aircraft,” a summary of the bill said.

It would also authorize the purchase of a number of fourth-generation aircraft including 24 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, and eight of the controversial F-15EX fighters that the Trump administration requested.

The House Armed Services Committee's version of the 2020 NDAA would authorize funding for 12 additional F-35As above the administration's request, as well as eight F-15EXs and 24 F/A-18E/Fs.

Meanwhile, the Democrat-led House Appropriations Committee passed a bill in May that would provide $8.7 billion for 90 F-35s, 12 more than the Trump administration requested. It would also provide $1.7 billion for the procurement of 24 Super Hornets and $986 million for eight F-15EXs to recapitalize the F-15C/D fleet...."

Source: https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org ... ghter-jets
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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Corsair1963

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Unread post04 Jul 2019, 07:02

spazsinbad wrote:
Bipartisan Support for Buying More Fighter Jets
03 Jul 2019 Jon Harper

"...The fiscal year 2020 national defense authorization bill approved June 27 by the GOP-controlled Senate would authorize $10 billion to procure 94 F-35 joint strike fighters, 16 more than the Trump administration requested.

The legislation “prioritizes investments that ensure the U.S. military sustains or regains our comparative combat advantage in the current climate of great-power competition, … enabling the forces to modernize and equip themselves with the most advanced and capable fifth-generation aircraft,” a summary of the bill said.

It would also authorize the purchase of a number of fourth-generation aircraft including 24 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, and eight of the controversial F-15EX fighters that the Trump administration requested.

The House Armed Services Committee's version of the 2020 NDAA would authorize funding for 12 additional F-35As above the administration's request, as well as eight F-15EXs and 24 F/A-18E/Fs.

Meanwhile, the Democrat-led House Appropriations Committee passed a bill in May that would provide $8.7 billion for 90 F-35s, 12 more than the Trump administration requested. It would also provide $1.7 billion for the procurement of 24 Super Hornets and $986 million for eight F-15EXs to recapitalize the F-15C/D fleet...."

Source: https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org ... ghter-jets


Disappointing that the eight F-15EX's are in both budgets. Which, means the odds are pretty good that the USAF will get them like it or not. Yet, not unexpected either...

Still some hope they could be cut in the end. Won't know until the compromise between the Senate and House Bills are complete....
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mixelflick

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Unread post04 Jul 2019, 14:34

If they do buy 8 F-15EX's, what are the odds they stop there?

Surely, someone is going to come to their senses. The USAF is going to look pretty silly with 8 F-15EX's on hand. Maybe they'll just roll them into the Strike Eagle fleet and call it a day.
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Unread post05 Jul 2019, 01:19

The F-15 buy is a jobs program and a jobs program is not normally a 1 year program. 80 is the interim number over 5 years (8 + 18x4) and 144 is the total program as is (8 years). Presumably this will be followed by the PCA comp.

FY20 budget strategy clearly worked with now at least 122 fighters being funded. FY21 budget will be easier using the mixelflick argument that 8 is really too few and at least a sqn should be bought (which means at least 24+2 attrition reserve). Then the 3 year kicks in with a multi-year buy sweetener where the cost drops if the remaining 3 years are bought at a go by which time, there's enough economies of scale to go with a 2nd 3 year buy. Smart!

The selection of the EX instead of the CX makes it clear this is will be the day 3 tactical bomber fleet, which can free up the F-35 for A2A. I suspect eventually the 2nd seat will be used (e.g. a place to transfer excess pilots from other sqns).
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SpudmanWP

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Unread post05 Jul 2019, 01:37

What happens when Boing losses F/A-XX and PCA?

Do we keep buying the F-15 & F-18 till they eventually win a fighter contract?
"The early bird gets the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese."
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Unread post05 Jul 2019, 01:39

"...I suspect eventually the 2nd seat will be used (e.g. a place to transfer excess pilots from other sqns)." From what I have read over the last several years the USAF does not have enough pilots nor does it retain enough experienced pilots.
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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weasel1962

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Unread post05 Jul 2019, 02:17

spazsinbad wrote:"...I suspect eventually the 2nd seat will be used (e.g. a place to transfer excess pilots from other sqns)." From what I have read over the last several years the USAF does not have enough pilots nor does it retain enough experienced pilots.


Agreed. Its a current problem. Doomsayers will say this will continue on. However from what I've read, the solutions have already been implemented.
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spazsinbad

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Unread post05 Jul 2019, 02:32

Manipulation goes on I guess so how hard is it to discourage less useful USAF pilots to stay or whatever - for the numbers.
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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Unread post05 Jul 2019, 02:37

"Meanwhile, the Democrat-led House Appropriations Committee passed a bill in May that would provide $8.7 billion for 90 F-35s, 12 more than the Trump administration requested. It would also provide $1.7 billion for the procurement of 24 Super Hornets and $986 million for eight F-15EXs to recapitalize the F-15C/D fleet"

curiosity got me.

The FA-18 came out at 1.7b/24 = $70.8m

The f-35 came out to 8.7b/90 = $96.6m

The F-15ex came out to 0.986b/8 = $123.2m
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weasel1962

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Unread post05 Jul 2019, 05:59

The unit cost for FY 20 F-35A is $83.974m but which strangely comes up to $3.982b for 48. Add $381m for non-recurring costs e.g. ancillary equipment + $489m support costs e.g. depot standup.

Its $109.58m for each F-35B (total 10 = $1.096b) + $119m non-recurring costs + $447m support costs.
Its $101.8m for each F-35C (total 20 = $2.036b) + $196m non-recurring costs + $246m support costs.

Total = $8.992B for the F-35. Non-recurring program cost to date is already in excess of $9.1b ($4b for A, $3.5b for C, $1.6b for B).

The unit cost for FY 20 F-15EX is $80.3m (8 units = $642.4m) with a non-recurring cost of $407m (cut by $64m in the house bill due to "excessive engineering costs") and zero support costs which is what the USAF is arguing is the real cost savings but will likely creep up later imho.

The unit cost for FY 20 F-18E/F is $65.39m (24 units = $1.588b) with $18m non-recurring costs and $215m support costs. Non-recurring program cost to date is already in excess of $5b.
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usnvo

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Unread post06 Jul 2019, 00:45

weasel1962 wrote:The unit cost for FY 20 F-15EX is $80.3m (8 units = $642.4m) with a non-recurring cost of $407m (cut by $64m in the house bill due to "excessive engineering costs") and zero support costs which is what the USAF is arguing is the real cost savings but will likely creep up later imho.


It is hard to tell how much the F-15EX will cost because the budget book is almost completely blank. While it lists the airframe cost at $80 million, it specifically indicates that is only an estimate and it will probably change.

This little gem is found at the bottom of page 1 "All numbers are based on initial program office estimate and will be refined after acquisition program baseline is established". In other words you have to buy it to know how expensive it will be.

And while all other fighters breakdown airframe/CFM, GFM, and engines separately, there is no mention of any of these in the F-15EX budget book, just the airframe which may or may not include same.
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Unread post06 Jul 2019, 05:33

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... with-f-35s

Chicago-based Boeing has offered the aircraft, including engines, for about $80 million per plane under a fixed-price contract with the first deliveries to come in 2022.
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mixelflick

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Unread post06 Jul 2019, 11:44

weasel1962 wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-19/air-force-wants-eight-upgraded-boeing-fighters-along-with-f-35s
,
Chicago-based Boeing has offered the aircraft, including engines, for about $80 million per plane under a fixed-price contract with the first deliveries to come in 2022.


Good find...

It will be interesting to see if Boeing lives up to that estimate, I'm thinking somehow no. Be that as it may though, sounds like the Super Eagle is comng our way. Will make an interesting comparison to the SU-35 and other up rated Flankers...
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