India and the F-35?

Corsair1963 · by **Corsair1963** » 23 Apr 2018, 05:09

talkitron wrote:Here is a nice article on the cancellation of India’s purchase of an indigenized variant of the Su-57. The so-called FGFA program is likely cancelled and the article speculates the F-35 is in India’s future.

https://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2018/04 ... d.html?m=1

Many of us have said that India would leave the program. So, I doubt this is really much of a surprise to most???

So, now the Million Dollar question is can Russia really afford to go it alone???

weasel1962 · by **weasel1962** » 23 Apr 2018, 06:23

The reality is that Russia has went in alone from day 1 on the T-50 and now Su-57 program. The aircraft is already flying and the real question is how many will Russia produce.

Sweden has an economy a few times smaller than Russia but managed to maintain the gripen. With its economic size (esp PPP consideration), its a given that Russia will manufacture the Su-57 in numbers... even if it will require several container ships for spares. This is really one product that would benefit from 3D printing.

Corsair1963 · by **Corsair1963** » 23 Apr 2018, 08:18

weasel1962 wrote:The reality is that Russia has went in alone from day 1 on the T-50 and now Su-57 program. The aircraft is already flying and the real question is how many will Russia produce.

Sweden has an economy a few times smaller than Russia but managed to maintain the gripen. With its economic size (esp PPP consideration), its a given that Russia will manufacture the Su-57 in numbers... even if it will require several container ships for spares. This is really one product that would benefit from 3D printing.

No, it's not a given that Russia will produce the Su-57 in numbers. First, odds are good it won't be ready for at least a decade. Second, even Russian Sources state the price will be over $100 Million. Which, will only increase with India leaving the program. So, Russia may not be able to afford the Su-57. Anymore than the US did with the Raptor.

Corsair1963 · by **Corsair1963** » 23 Apr 2018, 08:33

Speaking of price and numbers. I could see Russia acquiring the J-31 from China at some point. As Russia has nothing in the F-35/J-31 class of fighters. (critically important)

It's also worth noting that the J-31 is already equipped with Russian Engines. These could be followed by Russian Avionics. If, adopted by the Russian Air Force. This would make it far more palatable to Russian Pride.... :wink:

"IMHO"

citanon · by **citanon** » 23 Apr 2018, 08:37

weasel1962 wrote:The reality is that Russia has went in alone from day 1 on the T-50 and now Su-57 program. The aircraft is already flying and the real question is how many will Russia produce.

Sweden has an economy a few times smaller than Russia but managed to maintain the gripen. With its economic size (esp PPP consideration), its a given that Russia will manufacture the Su-57 in numbers... even if it will require several container ships for spares. This is really one product that would benefit from 3D printing.

Sweden bought the F414 from GE, the radar from SELEX, and is doing a much less ambitious aircraft that is not any where near VLO. Russia is doing everything on its own chasing after their first true stealth fighter.

spazsinbad · by **spazsinbad** » 23 Apr 2018, 08:42

"...true stealth..."? INDIA does not think so.

gideonic · by **gideonic** » 23 Apr 2018, 08:45

Have no fear. In a few minutes, Milosh (or some troll-brigade™ member form whatever country, certainly not Russia) will jump in, telling that PAK-FA is already more capable than F-35 and F-22 combined.

Not only that, even more capable engines and radars will come out tomorrow ... no, yesterday! And Russia will have 0 development and/or production issues, the gap between West and them has only been shrinking since the 90s. And finally, none of the PR stunts: Flying protoypes to Syria, or flying with the new engine in the end of last year (as in good old soviet times, when all the huge "achievements" miraculously tended to happen just before the year-end) have absolutely nothing to do with trying to impress India, or other potential customers.

weasel1962 · by **weasel1962** » 23 Apr 2018, 08:58

Russia will not buy the J-31. Can't really remember the last time Russia actually had non-Russian planes (other than UAVs) in inventory. WW2?

The only thing holding back full production of the Su-57 is the new engine. I think its a matter of time. What "numbers" of Su-57 will be produced by Russia right now is a waste of time arguing. They've built 14 prototypes with 11 flying and 12 more in LRIP. That's not the kind of numbers that suggest under 200 in terms of overall program. Having said that, the F-22 stopped at 195 including test units from 650 planned in the beginning so yes, no plan is ever cast in stone.

Its good to set the context of what realistically the "numbers" entail, by looking at the state of RuAF. Mig-31, they've built over 200 with 100+ in service. Both Mig-29 and Su-27 series, they've got ~400+ each in service. Numbers produced in Russian context will go no where near China.

milosh · by **milosh** » 23 Apr 2018, 09:41

Engine and sensors will be developed because they could use them for Flankers. Problem is manufacturing cost of Su-57 (materials, tolerances, production line etc), if Su-57 cost +100 million as Corsair wrote then it would be hard to justify it when Su-35 cost them ~30 million. And when Su-57 will be ready they could get Su-35 with same engine and sensors.

Buying J-31 isn't option either because Chinese will not sell it cheap, they said it would cost 70 million but I wouldn't expect it would be over 80 millions. That is lot more expensive then Su-35.

weasel1962 · by **weasel1962** » 23 Apr 2018, 10:04

Its of course $100+m when Russia quotes to India for participation. Its significantly less when the russkis build it themselves.

hythelday · by **hythelday** » 23 Apr 2018, 13:26

gideonic wrote:Have no fear. In a few minutes, Milosh (or some troll-brigade™ member form whatever country, certainly not Russia) will jump in, telling that PAK-FA is already more capable than F-35 and F-22 combined.

Hold your horses, milosh has his own preferences (don't we all?) but he is a reasonable user, definitely a "real person" and not a wewuz-style keyboard commando.

IF the report is true, then it is indeed a setback for PAK FA, but I do not think it kills the entire program, yet. I expect that fairly soon Advanced Super Flanker XT (looking at you, Boeing) will emerge to fill the export void (and UAC pocets) left by delayed Su-57. After all, there are still plenty of vacant numbers between 35 and 57.

ricnunes · by **ricnunes** » 23 Apr 2018, 15:59

hythelday wrote:After all, there are still plenty of vacant numbers between 35 and 57.

And even more if you use decimal point numbers :mrgreen:

But yes, I tend to agree with everything you wrote in your post.

sunstersun · by **sunstersun** » 23 Apr 2018, 16:21

No people believing the Russians can push this program through without Indian support are deluding themselves. The airframe is still heavily metal, one of the major improvements were going to be composite materials. The engines are unfinished, no where near done. Russian economy is tanked, and their military industrial capacity has taken a major major major hit post Ukraine.

Expect flanker "5th gen" avionic upgrades.

While upgrading the PAKFA to 5+++++ gen, which is why they delay it.

ricnunes · by **ricnunes** » 23 Apr 2018, 16:59

sunstersun wrote:No people believing the Russians can push this program through without Indian support are deluding themselves.

For my part, I don't think that I'm "deluding myself" and yes, I believe that the Russians will push this program through.
IMO the question here is how many Su-57s will Russia be able to field? If you tell me that the Russia will field no more than 30 (thirty) or so Su-57s than I would be ready to believe in such assessment.
If you say that the Su-57 will be less capable than initially planned (by the Russians) than I would also be ready to believe in such assessment.
But saying that Russia will cancel the Su-57, I don't think so (for a "myriad" of reasons)...

mixelflick · by **mixelflick** » 23 Apr 2018, 17:13

You are probably right... they will likely produce something. How many of this something is hard to tell. At over $100 million apiece, it's likely 200 or under. Perhaps way under.

They may also dumb it down quite a bit, throwing the towel in on stealth (havent' they already?) and instead focus on long range AAM's/sensors and "supermaneuverability".

Let's be honest though: The Indian withdrawal is a big blow to the program. 5th gen tech takes big $, and they're hurting economically. They also (supposedly) are developing a Mach 4, Mig-31 follow on, a VSTOL fighter, updated TU-160's, PAK DA stealthy bomber etc.. That's going to take whole lotta' rubles, and the PAK FA is a money pit already, showing no signs it'll be getting cheaper anytime soon...