F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

[blindpilot]

....
NOW the USMC have increased their F-35B buy by 13 and thusly the overall buy for US increased by 13 to 2456 from 2443.
NOW the USMC are planning to buy 353 + 13 = 366 F-35Bs [A LEAP YEAR of F-35Bs!]
....

Again, I remain ... confused ...

However, some other points to ponder. I'm pretty sure the USMC would be very happy with 420 Bee's. However, the deal was some C's. Last I read they have committed to 4 not 5 CVN squadrons. (I'll have to dig into where I read that?? ) 4*10 = 40 + 14 Reserve would be 54 and 54 + even 366 = still 420 so "even if" it's + 13 +13 the 2443 is not necessarily bumped up, ??? well ...? except the chart we've seen here? (waiting for the actual SAR to be released..???) And in truth programs of record are ... well programs of record, ... see the F-22, ... or even the F-4/F-16s on the up side. What happens in 2038 or 2044 is a very "wispy" guess at best. Which is why LM and P&W are somewhat careful as to how they price things, contract by contract.

But as I said
" I remain ... confused ... "
BP

[spazsinbad]

My Dec 2016 SAR F-35 variant TOTALS is from the BrakeYurFence DEC 2016 SAR as indicated on the main large graphic. The relevant totals have been excerpted - which are wrong in way described - however the TOTAL is correct. N'est Pas?

All information - with the twists & turns to delight us all with colour & movement over the years - have been given now.

LM FAST FACTS dated May 2017 PROGRAM of Record: https://a855196877272cb14560-2a4fa819a6 ... _2017_.pdf
USAF 1,763 F-35As - DoN (USN/USMC) 680 F-35B/Cs = 2,443 then add the extra 13 USMC F-35Bs to total 2,456 today.

[tincansailor]

Let me see if I understand this. The Pentagon reported they are ordering more F-35s then originally planned, so their spending more money then planned. So someone looked at the cost increase and assumed that the unit cost is going up, and concluded that the number of planes on order has to be going down? Admittedly I'm no accountant, but all the news I've been reading is that orders are up, not down, and unit cost is dropping. Where is this coming from? Is this some kind of "Death Spiral" fantasy?

It seems the anti F-35 media is so desperate to report bad news their hallucinating. Like a man dying in the desert thinks he sees water, these guys see Death Spirals. By the way the other day I saw a show on TV about the greatest fighter planes of all time. Pierre Spray was praising the P-51D as no 1 on the list. They should have included him in the segment on the F-15, saying the plane was a dog. Being a military critic means never having to say your sorry.

[SpudmanWP]

The biggest driver in the increase of the procurement cost is that they plan to cap the annual F-35A buy at 60 instead of 80. This will add a decade to the time needed to buy all of the F-35s.

Think of it this way, take a 20 year home loan and change the terms to 30 years. Same idea. In the end, you have the same house but since you took longer to pay for it, the interest payments are a larger part fo the total coast.

[spazsinbad]

From DEC 2016 SAR - tadah.

"...URF: The average Unit Recurring Flyaway (URF) costs for F-35A and F-35C variants increased due to profile changes. F-35B variant decreased due to USMC adding 13 aircraft. Actual negotiated prices continue to be below SAR estimates...."

[weasel1962]

Per the USMC aviation plan:

9x16 B sqn = 144 B
5x10 B sqn = 50 B
2x10 B reserve sqn = 20 B
2x25 B FR sqn = 50 B
1x6 B OTE sqn = 6 B
BAI = 58 B
Attrition reserve = 25 B
Total 353 B

4x10 C sqn = 40 C
1x10 C training sqn = 10 C
BAI = 12 C
Attrition reserve = 5 C
Total 67 C

For the uninitiated, BAI = backup aircraft inventory.

[spazsinbad]

Which USMC aviation plan - what year for example - link?

[weasel1962]

Which USMC aviation plan - what year for example - link?

I'll give a hint. If you see the plan that states 357 Bs and 63C, that's the one before the year that states 353 B and 67 Cs.

[spazsinbad]

I'm not being cute - you know where you got that info - why do I have to go search for it? Just give the year or link-thanks.

My info has been detailed in every respect so no one has to search for it except directly they can go look via links & info.

[blindpilot]

FWIW,

I may add more or edit this post, but this is the source for what I am anchoring on before trying to understand the SAR?? if that's what it is .

Transition Plan
The F-35B and F-35C will replace F/A-18, AV-8B and EA-6B.
The Marine Corps will procure a total of 353 F-35 Bs and 67 F-35Cs in the following squadron bed down:

1) 9 Squadrons x 16 F-35B
2) 5 Squadrons x 10 F-35B
3) 4 Squadrons x 10 F-35C
4) 2 Squadrons x 10 F-35B reserve
5) 2 Squadrons x 25 F-35B FRS

Source: Aviation.Marines.mil 2017 plan (page 47)

Still reading and digesting this and other materials, while waiting for the official SAR release, but ...

Which USMC aviation plan - what year for example - link?

... this is the USMC ".MIL" web site's official 2017 plan. http://www.aviation.marines.mil/Portals ... 20PLAN.pdf

BP
Note: Pg 56

...The TACAIR transition will remain flexible with regards to VMA/VMFA transition order based on F-35 program progress and legacy readiness....

[maus92]

Spud has it right: reducing the yearly buy and keeping the line open a few extra years has some additional fixed and variable infrastructure costs and inflation indices. But there is an additional $400-500M in SDD / R&D costs snuck in as well (small change in JSF$) - I think GAO and DOTE has the extra SDD costs at over $1B.

[maus92]

FWIW,

I may add more or edit this post, but this is the source for what I am anchoring on before trying to understand the SAR?? if that's what it is .

Transition Plan
The F-35B and F-35C will replace F/A-18, AV-8B and EA-6B.
The Marine Corps will procure a total of 353 F-35 Bs and 67 F-35Cs in the following squadron bed down:

1) 9 Squadrons x 16 F-35B
2) 5 Squadrons x 10 F-35B
3) 4 Squadrons x 10 F-35C
4) 2 Squadrons x 10 F-35B reserve
5) 2 Squadrons x 25 F-35B FRS

Source: Aviation.Marines.mil 2017 plan (page 47)

Still reading and digesting this and other materials, while waiting for the official SAR release, but ...

Which USMC aviation plan - what year for example - link?

... this is the USMC ".MIL" web site's official 2017 plan. http://www.aviation.marines.mil/Portals ... 20PLAN.pdf

BP
Note: Pg 56

...The TACAIR transition will remain flexible with regards to VMA/VMFA transition order based on F-35 program progress and legacy readiness....

In Navy service, the F-35C will replace Block I Super Hornets - currently, Super Hornets squadrons are replacing legacy Hornets squadrons, and will replace all of them before the first F-35C equipped CVW sails on its first cruise. Depending on what the SLAP informs, the Block I Super Hornets might get a minimal SLEP and remain in training units, while the Block II and Block IIIs are deployed. As the Block II approach 6K hrs, they get upgraded to Block IIIs.

The messed up part of the former plan is that we will end up with a number of SLEPed legacy Hornets with no squadron - meaning they will go to the desert (or the USMC.)

[SpudmanWP]

Spud has it right: reducing the yearly buy and keeping the line open a few extra years has some additional fixed and variable infrastructure costs and inflation indices. But there is an additional $400-500M in SDD / R&D costs snuck in as well (small change in JSF$) - I think GAO and DOTE has the extra SDD costs at over $1B.

According to the summary sheet, the SDD costs have not gone up "Over $1B", but by $400mil (TY).

[blindpilot]

...
In Navy service, the F-35C will replace Block I Super Hornets - currently, Super Hornets squadrons are replacing legacy Hornets squadrons, and will replace all of them before the first F-35C equipped CVW sails on its first cruise. Depending on what the SLAP informs, the Block I Super Hornets might get a minimal SLEP and remain in training units, while the Block II and Block IIIs are deployed. As the Block II approach 6K hrs, they get upgraded to Block IIIs.
The messed up part of the former plan is that we will end up with a number of SLEPed legacy Hornets with no squadron - meaning they will go to the desert (or the USMC.)

Nice opinion I guess, and I'll even grant some fuzzy probabilities to "some of the theory." However, your numbers simply will not add up. That doesn't diminish the reality of the legacy readiness disaster, and impending fighter gap crunch.

There are about 350 or so total E/F's with, say up to 24 here 12 there in the pipe. Still less than 400 total all blocks of E/F SH that might be available for squadrons. There are still notionally over 300 A/C/Ds in the Navy, and a couple hundred in the USMC. The USMC has promised 2 (currently) growing to 4 CVN squadrons. That's their F-35C ??67-80 ?? fighters.
SO FIRST OF ALL, EVERY USMC F-35C will replace LEGACY HORNETS, not SHs. That's not inconsequential when looking at Navy Squadrons, and carrier assignments.

Now our 300-380 plus Navy SHs are currently filling out First : over 120+ SHs for FRS and training purposes (presumeably a lot of these are Block Is) So Second: Let's be generous and allow, that for the (currently only 9 CVWs, with Ford could be 10) 30 Carrier squadrons, that there are say as many as 260 E/Fs left for CVW squadrons (there aren't). Divide those by 12 and you have as many as 22 E/F squadrons to fill out the current 30 CVW squadrons (mostly at 3 per Carrier Wing, some 2, some 4). One reason there are only 9 active CVWs right now is 3(sq) times 9(cvw) = 21. See the number 22 above. Truth is there aren't that many legs left on that many SHs after the last decade of heavy/tanker duty work. The "pretty please Mr. Congress add twelve more," requests are just to plug this leaking fighter gap. There won't be "more SHs replacing LHs" for the Carriers. THAT'S THE MOST E/F SuperHornets THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE!!! At best that's only enough for 3 of each Carrier's 4 squadrons, (but should be 5 squadrons).

It is the F-18C/Ds that are currently filling the "Most we can do is the (5)five that are at sea," CVW gaps. There are no (or only the 2 USMC F-18A/C) squadrons for the other 4/5 CVWs, just to get to 4 per carrier, and certainly not any to fill any notional "fifth" squadron.
THAT's THE FIGHTER GAP!! they talk about.

The F-35C's will only be, half the time, replacing Legacy Hornets. But the rest are for SQUADRONS THAT NEED TO EXIST AND DON'T.(not some imaginary 12 ac SH squadrons, see the "3" SH sqs of CVW8 currently deployed on George H.W.Bush with the, "get 'em from somewhere" F-18Cs.. ie. stolen from VFA-37 of CVW 3.. IE. THERE IS NO CVW8 FOURTH SQUADRON!, those SHs don't exist nor will they ever, since one breaks for every one of the new "+12 please" they get... tanker duty you know!)

As noted above, 260 F-35Cs gives you about 22 squadrons (actually less here where FRS needs to be included, but we can add the 4 USMC C sqs) The F-35C is NOT REPLACING ANY E/F SHs !!!!!(at least in the near term) and the SLEPed Legacy Hornets will get used up and trashed when dead, until the arrival of the F-35C's ... period!

So basically, You are wrong. NAVY F-35Cs WILL REPLACE LEGACY SQUADRONS AND EMPTY SQUADRONS (like CVW8 sq#4) NOT SH ones!! This is despite your accidentally skirting of some truth, only because of the legacy overuse and delays combining for the Fighter Gap. HOWEVER !!!! The fastest way to plug that gap is buy F-35Cs, not wind up a Super Hornet line that is about to shut down. (supplier channels for obsolete parts is part of an assembly line)

NO THE F-35Cs will NOT BE REPLACING E/F SUPER HORNETS! They will fill out the existing, and emptied legacy hornet squadrons exactly as stated and planned.

Just Saying,
BP

[spazsinbad]

Jun/Jul 2017 F-35 FAST FACTs & F-35 Programme of Record: viewtopic.php?f=58&t=12237&p=371895&hilit=snuck#p371895

Now the SAR Dec 2016 is out with the 13 extra USMC F-35Bs noted thusly:

"F-35 Unit Cost Dec 2016 SAR download/file.php?id=25039 (PDF 0.7Mb)
The DoD average F-35 Aircraft Unit Recurring Flyaway (URF) Cost consists of the Hardware (Airframe, Vehicle Systems,
Mission Systems, and Engineering Change Order) costs over the life of the program. The URF assumes the quantity
benefits of 132 FMS aircraft and 609 International Partner aircraft.

The current estimate for F-35 total procurement quantity increased from 2443 to 2456. This is the result of an increase of 13 F-35B aircraft to be procured by the United States Marine Corps (USMC). The increase is reflected in both the aircraft and engine subprogram and results in a change from 680 to 693 in the Department of Navy Aircraft Procurement accounts. The USMC validated this requirement through the Marine Corps Requirements Oversight Council (MROC). The additional aircraft are fully funded and the funding is reflected in the FY 2018 President's Budget submission. The additional aircraft were added after the completion of the congressionally directed Department-wide fighter mix study. The strategic review will assess future tactical fighter force inventory requirements across the Department.

F-35A (Conventional Take Off and Landing) URF - $67.7M (BY 2012)
F-35B (Short Takeoff and Vertical Landing) URF - $77.1M (BY 2012)
F-35C (Carrier Variant) URF - $78.1M (BY 2012)"