F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 01:41
by maus92
"The cost of the F-35 jet program, already the most expensive U.S. weapons program ever, is estimated to climb further as the plane’s production period gets extended, according to figures submitted to Congress on Monday.

Total acquisition costs for Lockheed Martin Corp.’s next-generation fighter may rise about 7 percent to $406.5 billion, according to figures in a document known as a Selected Acquisition Report. That’s a reversal after several years of estimates that had declined to $379 billion recently from a previous high of $398.5 billion in early 2014...."

Looks like Gilmore was on to something (rotten in Ft. Worth.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... n-estimate

Additional funding for FY15-17 jets is also contained in the latest UCA.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 02:02
by SpudmanWP
How about we wait till the SAR is released to make any definitive analysis.

http://www.esd.whs.mil/FOIA/Reading-Roo ... Room-List/

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 03:09
by blindpilot
A couple thoughts on this.

First, is anyone familiar with this bump from 2443 to 2456 total ac procured, just because Congress added 13 Bees to an annual procurement? I have always assumed such changes were moving delivery to the left. I didn't hear of the USMC asking for more than the total B+C with Navy equals 680 ac. I am not aware of this "secret +13 buy," or even of that request, in unfunded wish lists, or whatever. So apparently the Navy(with Marines) is buying 693 ac now?

Secondly, any time you move delivery to the right, it will effect total program costs on your spreadsheet. I'm paying more attention to near term per aircraft prices being actually negotiated and booked. This SAR also picks up some of the previously(2015) uncounted, plus 6 year, life cycle out to 2070, in then year dollars. It works like this. Let's use round numbers to make it easy to see. If a gallon of JP8 costs $4 in 2064 and $4.40 in 2070, and you move 1,000,000 gals right 6 years, those gallons will cost $400,000 extra in "then" 2064/70 dollars, just because they were bought 6 years later. Assuming of course anyone has the remotest idea how much JP8 will cost next year, much less in 2070.

So - Third, Does anyone (Maus?) know what the inflation rate and cost of JP-8 (or will it be ?electro quantum methane?) is going to be in 2070? If so, I'd like to buy/short a hedge investment for my new great grandson to use to become a billionaire, to help my great great grandkids along.) The near term reality is the only true sign of costs, and those are still going down. I admit however, I do not know how much a Laser Gun is going to cost in the 2030's, and what the retrofit concurrency costs will be for those - (eeww! 2000 Laser Guns are gonna cost a lot I bet!). Hey Maus. (or the author of the estimate or Senator McCain) I'm game. Wanta bet a thousand dollars on the cost of anything(you pick the commodity) will be in 2070. We can escrow the bet, and bequeath it to our progeny. (my first bet is that the $2,000 pot will be worth a tidy sum in 54 years, of course it might only buy a loaf of bread .. so who knows?)

These 50+ year life cycle estimates are near worthless and only good for short term insights as to the impact down the road, on decisions being made now. If you push procurement out to the right several years, and 2030 something becomes 2040 something, the total costs will go up. Guaranteed. Now run an estimate on moving it left.

MHO
BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 03:20
by Dragon029
From the article:

Total acquisition costs for Lockheed Martin Corp.’s next-generation fighter may rise about 7 percent to $406.5 billion, according to figures in a document known as a Selected Acquisition Report. That’s a reversal after several years of estimates that had declined to $379 billion recently from a previous high of $398.5 billion in early 2014.

The Pentagon’s F-35 program office said in a statement that the $27.5 billion increase is reflected in current “then-year” dollars that cover research, development, procurement and military construction. The separate roughly $1.1 trillion long-term operations and support estimate to keep the aircraft flying until 2070 increased by $35.3 billion.


Winter said an estimated increase in the program’s total procurement cost to $346.2 billion from $319.1 billion last year was “largely driven” by the adjustments to the jet’s production schedule. The U.S. Air Force reduced its maximum annual rate of aircraft purchases to 60 per year from 80, a move which extended the planned procurements by six additional years from fiscal 2038 to fiscal 2044, he said. The Air Force is the largest single buyer of the fighter.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 03:45
by spazsinbad
'BP' the slowtony article says: "...The acquisition report also informed Congress that the Pentagon is adding 13 Marine Corps “B” model short-takeoff-and-vertical landing versions of the fighter that will increase the total quantity of U.S. jets purchased to 2,456 from the long-standing goal of 2,443...." We have to guess the SAR says that exactly; otherwise dunno.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 04:26
by spazsinbad
Marines Add 13 Bs To F-35 Buy; Acquisition Costs Rise
10 Jul 2017 Colin Clark

"WASHINGTON: At a time when much of the talk about the F-35 program has centered on trimming its overall numbers of 2,443, we learned today that the Marines plan to increase how many of the hovering B models they buy.

Close observers of the program might not be too surprised by the Marines’ decision. At the Paris Air Show, outgoing aviation commandant Lt. Gen. Jon Davis said he wanted to add 13 F-35Bs to his service’s program. Now they’ve done it. That brings the overall size of the F-35 program to 2,456. The new figure was included in the annual Selected Acquisition Report, a deep dive into the financial state of large defense programs....

...The program’s acquisition costs rose to $406.5 billion from $379 billion in then-year dollars, a rise of 6.8 percent. But in base year fiscal 2012 dollars the costs rose to $324.6 billion from last year’s estimate of $313.3 billion, a rise of just 3.5 percent. Pick the dollars and then critique the program as you will.

The bottom line is, as the SAR notes, “actual negotiated prices continue to be below SAR estimates.”..."



Source: http://breakingdefense.com/2017/07/mari ... osts-rise/

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 04:51
by blindpilot
spazsinbad wrote:'BP' the slowtony article says: "...The acquisition report also informed Congress that the Pentagon is adding 13 Marine Corps “B” model short-takeoff-and-vertical landing versions of the fighter that will increase the total quantity of U.S. jets purchased to 2,456 from the long-standing goal of 2,443...." We have to guess the SAR says that exactly; otherwise dunno.


Right. That's what I'm talking about. Now I have seen numerous reports that indicate edit corrctn] 353 Bee's (340+13) and 327 C's (80-13=67 USMC C's +260 USN C's or still 680+13-13. I assumed those reports were accurate. Still 2,443. If the report actually costs an additional 13 ac to the right end ... ??? I don't know... and it's still 2443? I just assumed it is? ... then ... at least ONE error in the SAR if slowtony is reporting accurately, and there are not now 2,456 planned?

In any case guessing "then year" prices 50 years from now is an absolute joke. F-4E Phantoms ran about $2.5M in 1967.

Confused,
BP

[Math EDITED to match Spaz's source quotes]

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 05:41
by blindpilot
spazsinbad wrote:
The bottom line is, as the SAR notes, “actual negotiated prices continue to be below SAR estimates."...


Yup.

BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 05:45
by spazsinbad
It seems to me that the USMC are buying an extra 13 F-35Bs overall to add to their grand total buy as per BrakeDaFence:
"...At the Paris Air Show, outgoing aviation commandant Lt. Gen. Jon Davis said he wanted to add 13 F-35Bs to his service’s program. Now they’ve done it. That brings the overall size of the F-35 program to 2,456. The new figure was included in the annual Selected Acquisition Report...."


The latest grand total for USMC was .... F-35Bs and now ADD 13 to reach ... + 13 = .... Then we assume that the same number of USMC F-35Cs will be purchased per the USN/USMC agreement = .... (I do not carry these numbers in me head).

SAR 2016 says as per graphic:
TOTAL US Armed Forces = 2,456 F-35 aircraft DEATH SPIRAL!
F-35A 1,763
F-35B - 353
F-35C - 340 ------------- TOTAL USN/USMC F-35Bs & F-35Cs = 693
_____________________________________________________

This is the earlier AMENDED plan from original agreement to this one in 2015:
Marine Aviation Plan 2015

“...The Marine Corps will procure a total of 353 F-35Bs & 67 F-35Cs...” [260 USN + 67 USMC F-35Cs = 327 F-35Cs]
Total USN and USMC F-35Bs/ F-35Cs = 680"
Source: https://marinecorpsconceptsandprograms. ... 20Plan.pdf


OK - NOW MY HEAD HURTS.... The original plan was this back in 2011 was the USMC by signed agreement with USN would:
"...CNO Adm. Gary Roughead and Marine Corps Commandant James Amos today signed a "tactical aviation integration" agreement whereby the Marines will purchase some F-35Cs to operate from Navy aircraft carriers. The plan is for the Marines to buy 80 F-35C carrier versions and another 340 F-35B STOVL aircraft...." 14 May 2011 AvWEAK Amy Butler


DON"T QUOTE ME: the SAR 2016 (seen Jul 2017) has added 13 F-35Cs to the grand total of F-35Cs INCORRECTLY!

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 08:58
by blindpilot
spazsinbad wrote: ...
OK - NOW MY HEAD HURTS.... ..


Hey, I already said I was confused ... you aren't helping much here ROFL

:drool: :drool: :shock: :| :D :D
BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 09:03
by spazsinbad
YEAH BUT.... the SAR 2016 (seen Jul 2017) has added 13 F-35Cs to the grand total of F-35Cs INCORRECTLY!

Dec 2015 SAR Total.... 2,457 [youse yanks are hopeless] :mrgreen: :doh: https://fas.org/man/eprint/F35-sar-2016.pdf (0.68Mb)

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 16:25
by blindpilot
spazsinbad wrote:YEAH BUT.... the SAR 2016 (seen Jul 2017) has added 13 F-35Cs to the grand total of F-35Cs INCORRECTLY!

Dec 2015 SAR Total.... 2,457 [youse yanks are hopeless] :mrgreen: :doh: https://fas.org/man/eprint/F35-sar-2016.pdf (0.68Mb)


Yeah well if you Aussies were on the ball, you'd jump in and say, "We'll take any round off errors and can you change the C's to B's like the Gyrenes did?" and then you'd have a squadron fur ya flat tops paid outa our budget! Crumbs from the big table and all ... LOL :D :D

MHO
BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 16:34
by spazsinbad
Yeah BUT we don't have the TRUMPinator in charge - just a second rate NBN enthusiast and I'm still waiting - drum roll....

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 18:09
by neptune
SpudmanWP wrote:How about we wait till the SAR is released to make any definitive analysis.

http://www.esd.whs.mil/FOIA/Reading-Roo ... Room-List/



.........deaf ears!
8)

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 21:17
by neptune
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... by-439224/



Lower buys raises overall F-35 acquisition costs by 7%


11 July, 2017
BY: Leigh Giangreco


Lower procurement rates for the Lockheed Martin F-35 have reversed the program’s positive gains since 2015, raising overall development and procurement costs by almost 7% through Fiscal 2044. After years of stabilizing and reducing total program costs under Joint Program Office executive officer Lt Gen Christopher Bogdan, lower planned procurement rates over the next 27 years drove overall, inflation-adjusted costs from $379 billion to $406.5 billion, according to a Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) summary released on 11 July. The US Air Force decreased its maximum annual aircraft procurement rate from 80 F-35As per year to 60. The change extended planned purchases of F-35s by the Department of Defense by six more years from Fiscal Year 2038 to 2044.

The decreased production quantities and six-year procurement phase extension not only led to higher program costs, but an increase in unit recurring flyaway estimates over the program’s lifetime and an increase in average procurement unit cost and program acquisition unit costs, according to the JPO. The JPO maintains that research, development, test and evaluation costs have remained steady and that negotiated near term unit recurring flyaway costs continue to decline. At the start of the JSF program, the June 2002 SAR estimated total acquisition costs at $226.4 billion, or $312.3 billion in current dollars. The US Marine Corps, Navy and USAF had also planned to order 2,866 aircraft in 2002, but the navy later lowered its buy, reducing the total F-35 purchase to 2,443 aircraft today. The overall cost estimate was released a day after the DOD awarded Lockheed a $4.49 billion undefined contract adjustment with a $5.57 billion ceiling for the 11th lot of low-rate initial production (LRIP). The deal is a placeholder while the JPO negotiates final LRIP lot 11 prices with Lockheed for 90 airframes and with Pratt & Whitney for F135 engines.

The JPO says the negotiations for Lot 11 should result in a lower price than finalized in LRIP lot 10, which resulted in a $94.6 million flyaway unit cost for the F-35A.
:)

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 21:41
by SpudmanWP
It's sad when you think that the original estimates were based on 120 F-35As per year and now it's half.

Gee, I wonder if cutting the annual buy in half could be a major driver in the lifetime cost increase? :doh:

But of course we all know it's LM's fault. :bang:

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 22:55
by spazsinbad
Is the SAR publick yet? Everyone else seems to have it: http://www.defensenews.com/articles/air ... tion-costs

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 23:07
by SpudmanWP
It's just more typical Washington leaks.

Here is where it will be published.

http://www.esd.whs.mil/FOIA/Reading-Roo ... n_Reports/

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 23:09
by XanderCrews
maus92 wrote:
Looks like Gilmore was on to something (rotten in Ft. Worth.)



Missed the navy's fleet wide oxygen issues though

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 23:11
by spazsinbad
The FloatGlobular article over page has incorrect total number which is now 2456 -not 2443- USMC want 13 more Bs BABY.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 23:24
by SpudmanWP
maus92 wrote:Looks like Gilmore was on to something (rotten in Ft. Worth.)


The only thing that Gilmore is on is some Mary Jane, 420, etc. The main driver of the increased estimated cost is reducing the annual F-35A buy from 80 to 60 which is HALF of the original plan. Did you note that the Development budget, which was Gilmore main area of "risk", is stable?

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 11 Jul 2017, 23:56
by XanderCrews
SpudmanWP wrote:
maus92 wrote:Looks like Gilmore was on to something (rotten in Ft. Worth.)


The only thing that Gilmore is on is some Mary Jane, 420, etc. The main driver of the increased estimated cost is reducing the annual F-35A buy from 80 to 60 which is HALF of the original plan. Did you note that the Development budget, which was Gilmore main area of "risk", is stable?


Gilmore was really onto something. Like predicting a football team would win the next super bowl. Really deep prophetic stuff.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 12 Jul 2017, 03:42
by weasel1962
Whoever uses then year numbers e.g, $406b to call out on cost increases is a financial retard. Inflation will always mean higher cost, duh. That's why there is always a base year calculation.

The BY cost has also gone up but if one bothers to look at the breaking defense writeup, the reason can be easily explained. Unit cost is lower but total procurement cost has gone up can only mean one thing. The forces are buying more planes.

Its appears some people are calling a mountain, a mountain. Of course cost will go up if one buys more planes.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 12 Jul 2017, 06:53
by spazsinbad
Some More SARin GAS before public inhales the lot - GAS Masks On... GO! FUEL sniffing not allowed - bad for future....
F-35s: Buy Less, Pay More
12 Jul 2017 John A. Tirpak

"...Winter said the F-35 program “remains within all cost, schedule, and performance thresholds and continues to make steady progress.”

The F-35’s actual operating and sustainment cost “was not estimated” by the Pentagon’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation shop, “and remains unchanged from 2015,” Winter noted, meaning the SAR number fails to capture actual changes in Fiscal 2016. Winter said these costs rose four percent because the Pentagon is using a new fuel estimate that increased the expected cost per gallon, along with changes “in DOD beddown plans that added more than 135,000 flight hours and 63,000 operational aircraft years to the program.” If the Pentagon hadn’t made these changes, F-35 O&S costs “would have decreased by approximately $6.2 billion (in base year 2012 dollars) from last year’s estimate.”

Source: http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... -More.aspx

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 12 Jul 2017, 09:19
by spazsinbad
What is the holdup: "...According to the 2016 Selected Acquisition Report, published in December [2016] and delivered to lawmakers Monday [10 Jul 2017]..."? https://www.dodbuzz.com/2017/07/12/air- ... cost-hike/
&
What a good reporter: "...Meanwhile, the Marine Corps plans to add 13 F-35Bs, the short-takeoff-and-vertical landing version of the Lightning II, bumping the F-35 jet buy total to 2,456 from 2,443."

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 12 Jul 2017, 10:51
by bring_it_on
Two points worth mentioning here -

1) The Congress keeps adding aircraft above the services request going off of cues from the UPL. The AF may not get 60 jets this year but they'll easily get more than what they requested (HASC currently gives them 56 vs a request of 48 while SASC gives them 60). This impacts overall program since the actual aircraft purchased in a FY may be more than requested for the forceable future. If this trend continues then you would naturally not need to extend procurement for the number of years being assumed in the SAR unless the total buy is increased.

2) It provides an insight to any current or future politician on how to simply reduce 6-7% cost on the program by essentially adjusting the acquisition strategy. The OMB has directed the services to prepare for a 5% increase in budget-request for FY19. The AF will likely ask for much higher number of F-35As in their FY19 than what the SAR (it will likely be leaked today) will show since FY18 materials are using placeholders for FYDP.

3) Short-medium term, this has no impact on the budgets. The SAR basically tells the AF to prioritize and shows them and the politicians how much (estimated) can be saved by moving the procurement rate for the A higher. The AF and Congress may not choose to do this for a variety of reasons, one being allocating that money elsewhere but it will show how much can be saved by going back to what is clearly a much more cost effective acquisition strategy.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 12 Jul 2017, 11:21
by spazsinbad

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 12 Jul 2017, 18:06
by SpudmanWP
Does anyone have access to AVWeek to get the PDF?

Http://aviationweek.com/awin-only/f-35- ... report-sar

You must have an Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) account or subscribe to this Market Briefing to access "F-35 2016 Selected Acquisition Report (SAR)".

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 02:47
by weasel1962
Just wanted to highlight that the USMC 353 buy is reflected in many USMC program docs so its not new. Those program docs also tend to reflect a 67 C buy which ties up to the 420 total. That would have originally meant 327 C buy rather than a 340 C buy so the SAR probably does not reflect the final number, rather just the current status.

I just read the 605 page Committee of Armed Services report release July 6. Don't want to publish the link because there are a number of interesting tidbits regarding the F-35 that can probably be spunned into negative news. One key point of the SAR was the $3+m increase in the F-35A unit cost that would contribute to a significant chunk of the program increase. As per the JPO office, that assumes the program continues on at a lower annual buy rate. What the committee states to address this is also relevant. I quote:

The committee believes that full-rate production in fiscal year 2021 would require an annual procurement rate of 80 F–35As, 36 F–35Bs, and 30 F–35Cs. The committee expects the Department of Defense to invest in the tooling necessary to accelerate these future F–35 production rates.


and something that would reduce the cost further (with a plus to Trump)

The committee commends the actions taken by the administration and the F–35 PEO to negotiate lower unit costs and continued cost savings for F–35 aircraft.

To continue the trend of decreasing unit F–35 procurement costs, the committee notes that the Department of Defense submitted a request for authorization to enter into contracts for economic order quantities of material and equipment for use in F–35 procurement contracts, to be awarded during fiscal years 2019 and 2020, so that the Department of Defense can execute a block buy contracting strategy.


And on a final note, the committee recommended the following increase for the F-35 buys to
+3 to 23 for STOVL
+4 to 8 for CV
+10 to 56 for AF

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 03:21
by spazsinbad
Just to clarify: The USMC AFAIK changed their F-35B/F-35C buy in 2015 from their original USN/USMC agreement in 2011.
Marine Aviation Plan 2015

“...The Marine Corps will procure a total of 353 F-35Bs [up from 340] & 67 F-35Cs [DOWN from 80]...” [260 USN + 67 USMC F-35Cs = 327 F-35Cs] Total USN and USMC F-35Bs [353] / F-35Cs [327] = 680"

Source: https://marinecorpsconceptsandprograms. ... 20Plan.pdf (16.4Mb)

NOW the USMC have increased their F-35B buy by 13 and thusly the overall buy for US increased by 13 to 2456 from 2443.
NOW the USMC are planning to buy 353 + 13 = 366 F-35Bs :doh: [A LEAP YEAR of F-35Bs!] :devil:
_______________________________________

Now we look at CURRENT CORRECT GRAND Totals" which in the case of the USMC F-35Bs & USN/USMC F-35Cs...
USAF =- 1,763 F-35As The 2016
USMC = -- 366 F-35Bs SAR HAS
USN =----- 327 F-35Cs WRONG
US Armed Forces TOTAL = 2,456 F-35s

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 04:51
by blindpilot
spazsinbad wrote:....
NOW the USMC have increased their F-35B buy by 13 and thusly the overall buy for US increased by 13 to 2456 from 2443.
NOW the USMC are planning to buy 353 + 13 = 366 F-35Bs :doh: [A LEAP YEAR of F-35Bs!] :devil:
....


Again, I remain ... confused ... :-? :-? :shrug: :shrug:

However, some other points to ponder. I'm pretty sure the USMC would be very happy with 420 Bee's. However, the deal was some C's. Last I read they have committed to 4 not 5 CVN squadrons. (I'll have to dig into where I read that?? ) 4*10 = 40 + 14 Reserve would be 54 and 54 + even 366 = still 420 so "even if" it's + 13 +13 the 2443 is not necessarily bumped up, ??? well ...? except the chart we've seen here? (waiting for the actual SAR to be released..???) And in truth programs of record are ... well programs of record, ... see the F-22, ... or even the F-4/F-16s on the up side. What happens in 2038 or 2044 is a very "wispy" guess at best. Which is why LM and P&W are somewhat careful as to how they price things, contract by contract.

But as I said
" I remain ... confused ... :-? :-? :shrug: :shrug: "
BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 04:54
by spazsinbad
My Dec 2016 SAR F-35 variant TOTALS is from the BrakeYurFence DEC 2016 SAR as indicated on the main large graphic. The relevant totals have been excerpted - which are wrong in way described - however the TOTAL is correct. N'est Pas?

All information - with the twists & turns to delight us all with colour & movement over the years - have been given now.

LM FAST FACTS dated May 2017 PROGRAM of Record: https://a855196877272cb14560-2a4fa819a6 ... _2017_.pdf
USAF 1,763 F-35As - DoN (USN/USMC) 680 F-35B/Cs = 2,443 then add the extra 13 USMC F-35Bs to total 2,456 today.

Image

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 05:54
by tincansailor
Let me see if I understand this. The Pentagon reported they are ordering more F-35s then originally planned, so their spending more money then planned. So someone looked at the cost increase and assumed that the unit cost is going up, and concluded that the number of planes on order has to be going down? Admittedly I'm no accountant, but all the news I've been reading is that orders are up, not down, and unit cost is dropping. Where is this coming from? Is this some kind of "Death Spiral" fantasy?

It seems the anti F-35 media is so desperate to report bad news their hallucinating. Like a man dying in the desert thinks he sees water, these guys see Death Spirals. By the way the other day I saw a show on TV about the greatest fighter planes of all time. Pierre Spray was praising the P-51D as no 1 on the list. They should have included him in the segment on the F-15, saying the plane was a dog. Being a military critic means never having to say your sorry.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 06:35
by SpudmanWP
The biggest driver in the increase of the procurement cost is that they plan to cap the annual F-35A buy at 60 instead of 80. This will add a decade to the time needed to buy all of the F-35s.

Think of it this way, take a 20 year home loan and change the terms to 30 years. Same idea. In the end, you have the same house but since you took longer to pay for it, the interest payments are a larger part fo the total coast.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 07:01
by spazsinbad
From DEC 2016 SAR - tadah.
"...URF: The average Unit Recurring Flyaway (URF) costs for F-35A and F-35C variants increased due to profile changes. F-35B variant decreased due to USMC adding 13 aircraft. Actual negotiated prices continue to be below SAR estimates...."

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 09:24
by weasel1962
Per the USMC aviation plan:

9x16 B sqn = 144 B
5x10 B sqn = 50 B
2x10 B reserve sqn = 20 B
2x25 B FR sqn = 50 B
1x6 B OTE sqn = 6 B
BAI = 58 B
Attrition reserve = 25 B
Total 353 B

4x10 C sqn = 40 C
1x10 C training sqn = 10 C
BAI = 12 C
Attrition reserve = 5 C
Total 67 C

For the uninitiated, BAI = backup aircraft inventory.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 09:43
by spazsinbad
Which USMC aviation plan - what year for example - link?

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 10:32
by weasel1962
spazsinbad wrote:Which USMC aviation plan - what year for example - link?


I'll give a hint. If you see the plan that states 357 Bs and 63C, that's the one before the year that states 353 B and 67 Cs.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 10:39
by spazsinbad
I'm not being cute - you know where you got that info - why do I have to go search for it? Just give the year or link-thanks.

My info has been detailed in every respect so no one has to search for it except directly they can go look via links & info.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 13 Jul 2017, 18:39
by blindpilot
FWIW,

I may add more or edit this post, but this is the source for what I am anchoring on before trying to understand the SAR?? if that's what it is .
Transition Plan
The F-35B and F-35C will replace F/A-18, AV-8B and EA-6B.
The Marine Corps will procure a total of 353 F-35 Bs and 67 F-35Cs in the following squadron bed down:

1) 9 Squadrons x 16 F-35B
2) 5 Squadrons x 10 F-35B
3) 4 Squadrons x 10 F-35C
4) 2 Squadrons x 10 F-35B reserve
5) 2 Squadrons x 25 F-35B FRS

Source: Aviation.Marines.mil 2017 plan (page 47)

Still reading and digesting this and other materials, while waiting for the official SAR release, but ...
spazsinbad wrote:Which USMC aviation plan - what year for example - link?

... this is the USMC ".MIL" web site's official 2017 plan. http://www.aviation.marines.mil/Portals ... 20PLAN.pdf

BP
Note: Pg 56
...The TACAIR transition will remain flexible with regards to VMA/VMFA transition order based on F-35 program progress and legacy readiness....

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 14 Jul 2017, 02:41
by maus92
Spud has it right: reducing the yearly buy and keeping the line open a few extra years has some additional fixed and variable infrastructure costs and inflation indices. But there is an additional $400-500M in SDD / R&D costs snuck in as well (small change in JSF$) - I think GAO and DOTE has the extra SDD costs at over $1B.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 14 Jul 2017, 02:58
by maus92
blindpilot wrote:FWIW,

I may add more or edit this post, but this is the source for what I am anchoring on before trying to understand the SAR?? if that's what it is .
Transition Plan
The F-35B and F-35C will replace F/A-18, AV-8B and EA-6B.
The Marine Corps will procure a total of 353 F-35 Bs and 67 F-35Cs in the following squadron bed down:

1) 9 Squadrons x 16 F-35B
2) 5 Squadrons x 10 F-35B
3) 4 Squadrons x 10 F-35C
4) 2 Squadrons x 10 F-35B reserve
5) 2 Squadrons x 25 F-35B FRS

Source: Aviation.Marines.mil 2017 plan (page 47)

Still reading and digesting this and other materials, while waiting for the official SAR release, but ...
spazsinbad wrote:Which USMC aviation plan - what year for example - link?

... this is the USMC ".MIL" web site's official 2017 plan. http://www.aviation.marines.mil/Portals ... 20PLAN.pdf

BP
Note: Pg 56
...The TACAIR transition will remain flexible with regards to VMA/VMFA transition order based on F-35 program progress and legacy readiness....


In Navy service, the F-35C will replace Block I Super Hornets - currently, Super Hornets squadrons are replacing legacy Hornets squadrons, and will replace all of them before the first F-35C equipped CVW sails on its first cruise. Depending on what the SLAP informs, the Block I Super Hornets might get a minimal SLEP and remain in training units, while the Block II and Block IIIs are deployed. As the Block II approach 6K hrs, they get upgraded to Block IIIs.

The messed up part of the former plan is that we will end up with a number of SLEPed legacy Hornets with no squadron - meaning they will go to the desert (or the USMC.)

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 14 Jul 2017, 03:04
by SpudmanWP
maus92 wrote:Spud has it right: reducing the yearly buy and keeping the line open a few extra years has some additional fixed and variable infrastructure costs and inflation indices. But there is an additional $400-500M in SDD / R&D costs snuck in as well (small change in JSF$) - I think GAO and DOTE has the extra SDD costs at over $1B.


According to the summary sheet, the SDD costs have not gone up "Over $1B", but by $400mil (TY).

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 14 Jul 2017, 05:24
by blindpilot
maus92 wrote: ...
In Navy service, the F-35C will replace Block I Super Hornets - currently, Super Hornets squadrons are replacing legacy Hornets squadrons, and will replace all of them before the first F-35C equipped CVW sails on its first cruise. Depending on what the SLAP informs, the Block I Super Hornets might get a minimal SLEP and remain in training units, while the Block II and Block IIIs are deployed. As the Block II approach 6K hrs, they get upgraded to Block IIIs.
The messed up part of the former plan is that we will end up with a number of SLEPed legacy Hornets with no squadron - meaning they will go to the desert (or the USMC.)


Nice opinion I guess, and I'll even grant some fuzzy probabilities to "some of the theory." However, your numbers simply will not add up. That doesn't diminish the reality of the legacy readiness disaster, and impending fighter gap crunch.

There are about 350 or so total E/F's with, say up to 24 here 12 there in the pipe. Still less than 400 total all blocks of E/F SH that might be available for squadrons. There are still notionally over 300 A/C/Ds in the Navy, and a couple hundred in the USMC. The USMC has promised 2 (currently) growing to 4 CVN squadrons. That's their F-35C ??67-80 ?? fighters.
SO FIRST OF ALL, EVERY USMC F-35C will replace LEGACY HORNETS, not SHs. That's not inconsequential when looking at Navy Squadrons, and carrier assignments.

Now our 300-380 plus Navy SHs are currently filling out First : over 120+ SHs for FRS and training purposes (presumeably a lot of these are Block Is) So Second: Let's be generous and allow, that for the (currently only 9 CVWs, with Ford could be 10) 30 Carrier squadrons, that there are say as many as 260 E/Fs left for CVW squadrons (there aren't). Divide those by 12 and you have as many as 22 E/F squadrons to fill out the current 30 CVW squadrons (mostly at 3 per Carrier Wing, some 2, some 4). One reason there are only 9 active CVWs right now is 3(sq) times 9(cvw) = 21. See the number 22 above. Truth is there aren't that many legs left on that many SHs after the last decade of heavy/tanker duty work. The "pretty please Mr. Congress add twelve more," requests are just to plug this leaking fighter gap. There won't be "more SHs replacing LHs" for the Carriers. THAT'S THE MOST E/F SuperHornets THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE!!! At best that's only enough for 3 of each Carrier's 4 squadrons, (but should be 5 squadrons).

It is the F-18C/Ds that are currently filling the "Most we can do is the (5)five that are at sea," CVW gaps. There are no (or only the 2 USMC F-18A/C) squadrons for the other 4/5 CVWs, just to get to 4 per carrier, and certainly not any to fill any notional "fifth" squadron.
THAT's THE FIGHTER GAP!! they talk about.

The F-35C's will only be, half the time, replacing Legacy Hornets. But the rest are for SQUADRONS THAT NEED TO EXIST AND DON'T.(not some imaginary 12 ac SH squadrons, see the "3" SH sqs of CVW8 currently deployed on George H.W.Bush with the, "get 'em from somewhere" F-18Cs.. ie. stolen from VFA-37 of CVW 3.. IE. THERE IS NO CVW8 FOURTH SQUADRON!, those SHs don't exist nor will they ever, since one breaks for every one of the new "+12 please" they get... tanker duty you know!)

As noted above, 260 F-35Cs gives you about 22 squadrons (actually less here where FRS needs to be included, but we can add the 4 USMC C sqs) The F-35C is NOT REPLACING ANY E/F SHs !!!!!(at least in the near term) and the SLEPed Legacy Hornets will get used up and trashed when dead, until the arrival of the F-35C's ... period!

So basically, You are wrong. NAVY F-35Cs WILL REPLACE LEGACY SQUADRONS AND EMPTY SQUADRONS (like CVW8 sq#4) NOT SH ones!! This is despite your accidentally skirting of some truth, only because of the legacy overuse and delays combining for the Fighter Gap. HOWEVER !!!! The fastest way to plug that gap is buy F-35Cs, not wind up a Super Hornet line that is about to shut down. (supplier channels for obsolete parts is part of an assembly line)

NO THE F-35Cs will NOT BE REPLACING E/F SUPER HORNETS! They will fill out the existing, and emptied legacy hornet squadrons exactly as stated and planned.

Just Saying,
BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 03:18
by spazsinbad
Jun/Jul 2017 F-35 FAST FACTs & F-35 Programme of Record: viewtopic.php?f=58&t=12237&p=371895&hilit=snuck#p371895

Now the SAR Dec 2016 is out with the 13 extra USMC F-35Bs noted thusly:
"F-35 Unit Cost Dec 2016 SAR download/file.php?id=25039 (PDF 0.7Mb)
The DoD average F-35 Aircraft Unit Recurring Flyaway (URF) Cost consists of the Hardware (Airframe, Vehicle Systems,
Mission Systems, and Engineering Change Order) costs over the life of the program. The URF assumes the quantity
benefits of 132 FMS aircraft and 609 International Partner aircraft.

The current estimate for F-35 total procurement quantity increased from 2443 to 2456. This is the result of an increase of 13 F-35B aircraft to be procured by the United States Marine Corps (USMC). The increase is reflected in both the aircraft and engine subprogram and results in a change from 680 to 693 in the Department of Navy Aircraft Procurement accounts. The USMC validated this requirement through the Marine Corps Requirements Oversight Council (MROC). The additional aircraft are fully funded and the funding is reflected in the FY 2018 President's Budget submission. The additional aircraft were added after the completion of the congressionally directed Department-wide fighter mix study. The strategic review will assess future tactical fighter force inventory requirements across the Department.

F-35A (Conventional Take Off and Landing) URF - $67.7M (BY 2012)
F-35B (Short Takeoff and Vertical Landing) URF - $77.1M (BY 2012)
F-35C (Carrier Variant) URF - $78.1M (BY 2012)"

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 05:50
by blindpilot
spazsinbad wrote:Jun/Jul 2017 F-35 FAST FACTs & F-35 Programme of Record: viewtopic.php?f=58&t=12237&p=371895&hilit=snuck#p371895

...the 13 extra USMC F-35Bs noted thusly:
".... The current estimate for F-35 total procurement quantity increased from 2443 to 2456. This is the result of an increase of 13 F-35B aircraft to be procured by the United States Marine Corps (USMC). The increase is reflected in both the aircraft and engine subprogram and results in a change from 680 to 693 ... The USMC validated this requirement through the Marine Corps Requirements Oversight Council (MROC). ...."


This is interesting indeed.

Honestly, I think somewhere there is a Lt. Col. and a one/two star looking at each other, and saying, "But that's not exactly what we were asking for is it?" and the reply went something along the lines of, "well technically .... no? ... but do you want to try to give them back? That would confuse the people we don't want confused. We can use being 13 ahead, and we'll see where things are in the 2030's. Let's not confuse the gnomes in the basement right now."

Now I'm not saying stuff like that happens to $100M here, $100M there when you have multi 100 billion dollar programs, but I think I may have accidentally bought some computers out of the dining hall budget once ... okay, maybe I am saying stuff like that happens ... but sometimes you stop asking questions .... This is sort of why I asked the question in the beginning ...
I'm sure the Marines will take them for now. That I AM sure of. The funny thing is if I was understanding the Marine request correctly before, it will actually be 13 extra "C's" (beyond that request) that they end buying (or not buying) in the 2030's...

693 it is!!!

Just Saying,
BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 05:51
by sunstersun
Why are they capping it at 60? Raised costs are not good.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 06:16
by blindpilot
sunstersun wrote:Why are they capping it at 60? Raised costs are not good.


I assume you have shifted gears, and are not talking about B/C's right now but your comment is on this post ..
SpudmanWP wrote:The biggest driver in the increase of the procurement cost is that they plan to cap the annual F-35A buy at 60 instead of 80. This will add a decade to the time needed to buy all of the F-35s.

Think of it this way, take a 20 year home loan and change the terms to 30 years. Same idea. In the end, you have the same house but since you took longer to pay for it, the interest payments are a larger part fo the total coast.


The best answers we've been given clues to, is that the USAF is trying to manage its concurrency retrofit costs by stretching just the next few years out. Once the definitive 4.X block is in production I fully expect them to speed back up. However, for the record 60 ac a year is a pretty good clip. that's more than 1 a week. (with partner jets and B/Cs also coming off the line at the same time that's lines putting out an ac every few days) Keep in mind the production rate also has to match into base preparation, pilot and maintenance personnel training, and myriads of other things that cost something. So ultimately its costs distribution.

MHO
BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 06:26
by spazsinbad
'BP' said above: "...if I was understanding the Marine request correctly before, it will actually be 13 extra "C's" (beyond that request)..." [where 'that request' is the current extra 13 F-35Bs?] Have you explained the 13 extra F-35Cs for the USMC before? Must have missed it by that much. :twisted: :devil: THIRTEEN - The DEVIL DOG DOZEN :doh: :mrgreen:

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 06:52
by blindpilot
Looking at both the B/C question and sunstersun's ..
sunstersun wrote:Why are they capping it at 60? Raised costs are not good.


Let's explore why the USMC wants AS MANY F-35Bs AS POSSIBLE YESTERDAY !!!!
from https://news.usni.org/2016/04/26/navy-d ... ly-at-home
Davis, the deputy commandant for aviation, said at the hearing that until 18 months ago the Marines had ... a total of 174{F-18A/C/D planes]. 18 months ago, though, the service shrank its squadrons to just 10 planes each in an effort to share the planes better; the squadrons about to deploy were prioritized, leaving the “bench” squadrons with few aircraft to train on each day. Despite that change, Davis said he checked his readiness data the day before the hearing and saw that only 87 [out of 174] planes in the whole Marine Corps were mission capable:
[and it's getting worse each month]

The USMC has squadrons, pilots and ground crews ready to move to any "working air craft" now... today... anything to get more than 5 hours flying time a month for the guys not deployed. The F-18A/C SLEP will NOT be fast enough to help.

However, even though the Navy and Air Force have similar challenges their difficulty is in managing the transition while keeping operational squadrons operational. It takes months (even a year or more) to go from a F-16/F-18C squadron to an F-35A/C one. You try and smooth it out and keep the F-16s going to Syria et al, at the same time you put F-35As into their hangars back home. But the truth is that "squadron"/24 ac is down and off line while you switch over, for months. You can't just say let's shut down the AF/Navy for a year and come back in December with all F-35s. Someone has to fly in the operational world. And the training squadrons have to process new personnel/pilots.... and you can't fix it by saying let's just run twice as many squadrons for a year. For starters, you need to get twice as many pilots for short term until you're done.

Sixty or eighty, sending ac to depot, covering for them while they get refitted ... All of this is not an easy thing to do.

MHO, FWIW,
BP
PS I have done one of these transitions before (was the primary action officer for the Consolidated Wings Working Group office) ... going from B-52 squadrons being shut down, to new model ac U-2 squadrons setting up, while shutting down two wings and merging three others (while continuing to deploy operational missions, and shipping nukes out etc. etc.)
If they tell you they want 80 now instead of 60, you don't reply, "sure the more the merrier!" Trust me. It ain't easy!

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 06:52
by neptune
[quote="blindpilot"]...However, for the record 60 ac a year is a pretty good clip. that's more than 1 a week. (with partner jets and B/Cs also coming off the line at the same time that's lines putting out an ac every few days) Keep in mind the production rate also has to match into base preparation, pilot and maintenance personnel training, and myriads of other things that cost something. So ultimately its costs distribution.[quote]

....with cost in mind and shared by partners and FMS and at Block 4+....FW, Nogoya, Cameri production capacity;
150 per year (3/wk.) for 10 years, 1,500 a/c?

.....should be about $45mil. each??? :doh:

.... replacing older F-15/6/8 (teens); and as you said, pilots/ maintainer training/ parts???


....sooo...max production? for how long?.....

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 07:08
by blindpilot
neptune wrote:....sooo...max production? for how long?.....


Well, How long was "The Plan" for production for F-4 Phantoms, for F-16s? This plan "SAYS" it's into the 2030s(maybe 40s). Don't bet anything in Vegas on that.

<sarc ON> Of course we see the death spiral is just about to happen any day now ... yep ... real soon ... could be tomorrow ... any day now ... any day now .... yep real soon ... any day now .... death spiral ... real soon .... <sarc OFF>

MHO
BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 07:17
by SpudmanWP
blindpilot wrote:The best answers we've been given clues to, is that the USAF is trying to manage its concurrency retrofit costs by stretching just the next few years out.


Everything ordered for the last 2 years are Block 3f so Concurrency is not an issue.

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 07:26
by blindpilot
spazsinbad wrote:'BP' said above: "...if I was understanding the Marine request correctly before, it will actually be 13 extra "C's" (beyond that request)..." [where 'that request' is the current extra 13 F-35Bs?] Have you explained the 13 extra F-35Cs for the USMC before? Must have missed it by that much. :twisted: :devil: THIRTEEN - The DEVIL DOG DOZEN :doh: :mrgreen:


I'll explain it this way. The number of ac and squadrons for specific purpose is where they came up with, "If we only get 340 + 80, we really need 13 (353) of those 80 C's to be Bs. And it's ok, we can make it work with 67 C's, and still make our commitment to the carriers. That's how I read the original requests as they evolved. Sooooo ... if they get 353+80(and not 67) = 433 + navy 260 = 693, then having gotten the 353 Bs they really asked for, the last 13 ac will bump the "67 is fine with us," back up to 80 ac (C's) on the back side. Soooo ... they're actually getting C's with the implementation of their basic request (353+67) moving from 680-693 (353+80). If that makes sense.

If I understood the original request right ... but Now if they get 366Bs, and still 67Cs ...I'm confusing myself again :D :D :D
BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 07:38
by blindpilot
SpudmanWP wrote:
blindpilot wrote:The best answers we've been given clues to, is that the USAF is trying to manage its concurrency retrofit costs by stretching just the next few years out.


Everything ordered for the last 2 years are Block 3f so Concurrency is not an issue.


I'm not talking about the contract's FOC concurrency deals. I'm talking about post FOC, planned upgrade moves to normal 4.X (whichever is the hardware bump) continuing evolution. The AF seems to be wanting to bring all their 3i aircraft up to 4.x post FOC when that happens. There are basic depot upgrade costs ( and time off line) for that "Non-Development stage" work. That will be hundreds of 3i hardware aircraft that they don't want to leave at 3F, if I hear the chatter correctly. 80 or 60, 20 times a couple years is more than a few aircraft. And they are still getting 60. That also is a lot of aircraft.
Perhaps it's better to think of it as when we get the block 40 F-16s, we want to depot our block 30s to that same block 40 standard. One thing about the F-35 is that the difference between an A and a D and an E will be pretty much avionics plug and play, and software. The A-G evolution will look different with the F-35.

So I'm not talking about "Development Contract Concurrency" here. Neither is the AF. They just want more "F-16Cs" on the front side than all those "F-16As", because they plan on sending most of the As to depot. (I mean it's just going to be "plug and play" and software! not a new wing, which is a revolutionary change with the F-35) if that makes sense?

MHO,
BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 07:44
by spazsinbad
blindpilot wrote:
spazsinbad wrote:'BP' said above: "...if I was understanding the Marine request correctly before, it will actually be 13 extra "C's" (beyond that request)..." [where 'that request' is the current extra 13 F-35Bs?] Have you explained the 13 extra F-35Cs for the USMC before? Must have missed it by that much. :twisted: :devil: THIRTEEN - The DEVIL DOG DOZEN :doh: :mrgreen:


I'll explain it this way. The number of ac and squadrons for specific purpose is where they came up with, "If we only get 340 + 80, we really need 13 (353) of those 80 C's to be Bs. And it's ok, we can make it work with 67 C's, and still make our commitment to the carriers. That's how I read the original requests as they evolved. Sooooo ... if they get 353+80(and not 67) = 433 + navy 260 = 693, then having gotten the 353 Bs they really asked for, the last 13 ac will bump the "67 is fine with us," back up to 80 ac (C's) on the back side. Soooo ... they're actually getting C's with the implementation of their basic request (353+67) moving from 680-693 (353+80). If that makes sense.

If I understood the original request right ... but Now if they get 366Bs, and still 67Cs ... I'm confusing myself again :D :D :D
BP

:devil: Wot do Mericans say these days "GOOD JOB". I used to be told that when potty training for the big ones! <sarc on> :doh:

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 15:36
by bring_it_on

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 17:48
by XanderCrews


Thanks.

Cliffs notes, anyone?

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 19:02
by blindpilot
XanderCrews wrote:


Thanks.

Cliffs notes, anyone?


Marines get 366 Bees and 67 C's
AF buys 60 per year out years. 2456 total.
USN/USMC last plane in 2032, USAF last plane in 2044.
Costs for 13 USMC ac and all those 204X AF out year purchases gets over $400M, as reported.

Now this is all predicting what will happen in 2032 thru 2044. If you know that please tell me whichs stock I should buy right now, and what horse to bet on in 2030, in the Kentucky Derby.

BP

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 19:48
by playloud
XanderCrews wrote:


Thanks.

Cliffs notes, anyone?

Estimated Combat Radius NM for F-35A = 669 nmi
Estimated Combat Radius NM for F-35B = 505 nmi
Estimated Combat Radius NM for F-35C = 640 nmi

New production schedule...
2007 - USAF=2 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=2
2008 - USAF=6 : USN/USMC=6 : Total=12
2009 - USAF=7 : USN/USMC=7 : Total=14
2010 - USAF=10 : USN/USMC=20 : Total=30
2011 - USAF=22 : USN/USMC=10 : Total=32
2012 - USAF=18 : USN/USMC=13 : Total=31
2013 - USAF=19 : USN/USMC=10 : Total=29
2014 - USAF=19 : USN/USMC=10 : Total=29
2015 - USAF=28 : USN/USMC=10 : Total=38
2016 - USAF=47 : USN/USMC=21 : Total=68
2017 - USAF=48 : USN/USMC=26 : Total=74
2018 - USAF=46 : USN/USMC=24 : Total=70
2019 - USAF=48 : USN/USMC=29 : Total=77
2020 - USAF=48 : USN/USMC=36 : Total=84
2021 - USAF=54 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=99
2022 - USAF=54 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=99
2023 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2024 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2025 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2026 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2027 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2028 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2029 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=45 : Total=105
2030 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=39 : Total=99
2031 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=24 : Total=84
2032 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=63
2033 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2034 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2035 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2036 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2037 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2038 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2039 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2040 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2041 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2042 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2043 - USAF=60 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=60
2044 - USAF=27 : USN/USMC=0 : Total=27

Total - USAF=1763 : USN/USMC=693
Grand Total = 2456

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 18 Jul 2017, 20:03
by spazsinbad

Perhaps an easier download is the earlier 'Dragon029' Dec 2016 F-35 SAR PDF attachment here: [NO WATERMARKS]

viewtopic.php?f=58&t=12237&p=371898&hilit=leaked#p371898

F-35 SAR Dec 2016: download/file.php?id=25039 (PDF 0.7Mb) [NO WATERMARKING]

Re: F-35 Acquisition Cost increases to $406.5B in new SAR

Unread postPosted: 08 Aug 2017, 15:08
by spazsinbad
dupe