The Turkey problem

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blindpilot

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Unread post13 Jul 2020, 15:18

Corsair1963 wrote:I still believe that Turkey will come around in the end. As she just cannot afford to walk away from the F-35...The real question is how much will it cost them to return???


I think the ship has sailed. I never judged the situation by what equipment the military was buying or what international politics were at play. My decisions/understanding of Turkey is rooted in the departure of Christian missionary friends/communities who fled a country they loved, a place they wished to live the rest of their lives because the spirit of Turkey has been spat upon and crushed, and they have discarded all that Ataturk strove to create from the ashes of the Ottoman empire.

Humpty Dumpty cannot be put back together again. Ataturk is gone and neo-Ottoman children are playing with toy guns like "they are somebody." This will not end well for Turkey. Whether it is the Russians, Arabs, or Western countries(Greece et al), the land is about to be pillaged, and women and children need to flee as they have in Syria. (and in fact Christian, westernized turks, and military personnel already are fleeing)

You are talking about missiles and jets when the Turkish body is sitting on the ground looking at it's own intestines spilled out in its lap. This is not an F-35 problem, and Turkey will never see those jets or any other equipment. Even if they did, the pilots left long ago. They'd just be door stops.

MHO,
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marauder2048

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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 00:47

ricnunes wrote: suspicions against Turkey from all other JSF/F-35 partners will always be present.


Looked at another way: the partners make money from FMS contracts including the recent, enormous contract for Japan.

That money is now divided amongst fewer partners and partner nations potentially have more work coming to them.

FMS contracts will more than compensate for the quantity loss incurred due to Turkey's departure so per-unit prices
will be on the stable trajectory.

And the big question: is Turkey really still the low-cost manufacturing hub it was billed to be when the project started?
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ricnunes

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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 11:36

Yes, I agree marauder that the work opportunity that was previously allocated to Turkey will likely end up being 'distributed' to other JSF/F-35 partners and this will probably another reason why a 'Turkish comeback' to the F-35 is and will be unlikely.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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milosh

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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 19:29

mixelflick wrote:Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see it.

Ergodan's mistake is only now revealing itself to be collosal. He's not going to be able to afford enough Mig-35's/SU-30's/35's to replace all of his dated Phantoms and Vipers 1:1. Not even close. The S-400 still isn't operational, and even when it is it's going to do... what exactly? Israel (or any nation flying F-35's) is going to render that system suspect, if not inoperable given that's what it was designed for.

It's not like China's going to be a much better option either. J-10's or like light fighters may not be as expensive as Flankers, but they won't be cheap either. Nor will they last long vs. F-35's from say, Greece. In fact if Greece plays its cards right they'll emerge with a huge tactical and strategic advantage over the Turks when this is all said and done.


Because Erdogan don't give a F. about military. You guys forget military try to topple and probable kill him. It wasn't CIA which save its head but KGB.

Deep state was supportive to coup because they wanted to replace him with prime minister because prime minister was keen to go in direct war with Asad.

And now you Americans ask why he doesn't listen US anymore???
Last edited by milosh on 14 Jul 2020, 19:55, edited 1 time in total.
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lbk000

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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 19:55

Okay, that's fair. I can understand too if the F-35 is seen as a leash that would hold Turkey hostage to the will of Washington -- that is, after all, part of its strategic warfighting capability and why it's an amazing weapon. For Turkey, the loss of near term military advantage is a small price to pay for the liberty of preserving national ambitions.
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blindpilot

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Unread post14 Jul 2020, 20:37

milosh wrote:....
Because Erdogan don't give a F. about military. You guys forget military try to topple and probable kill him. It wasn't CIA which save its head but KGB. ... Deep state ... wanted to replace him And now you Americans ask ...

lbk000 wrote:Okay, that's fair. I can understand too if the F-35 is seen as a leash that would hold Turkey hostage to the will of Washington -- For Turkey, the loss of near term military advantage is a small price to pay for the liberty of preserving national ambitions.


Do not confuse Erdogan/Islamic ambitions with Turkey's national ambitions.

This is not complicated.
Erdogan developed islamic maniacal delusions. He wanted/wants to recreate the Ottoman empire. That required he directly destroy the Ataturk dream.
The Ataturk/EU political forces leaned to stemming that path. Whether the US stoked or simply endorsed such thoughts is academic. I strongly suspect Endogan preemptively triggered a fake revolt to stop it before it started. Turkish military coup's do not historically fail.
History shows that the number one threat to Turkey geopolitically is Russia. Odds are Russia will do a "Crimea Job" on them eventually. (KGB saviors? ROFL that's a good one!)
Second most likely is that Arab Islamic forces will disassemble Turkey into ISS/Kurdish/etc. pieces.
Third but not very likely is that Greece and other western states will subjugate a "european sub-state," restoring Ottoman conquest status quo.

None of these ends well for Turkey or Endogan. And there is no way the US is going to do anything but deliberately and slowly disentangle itself from the whole mess. The US is more focused on getting nukes, supply chains, companies, citizens, Christians et al out of Turkey, long before it "never" considers putting F-35's/Patriots in Turkey.

Bottom line for this forum - Turkey and F-35 are heading in opposite directions and will never meet again. (unless Greek F-35's bomb them in a not so hard to imagine future) Ataturk's dream is dead, and Ottoman delusions are evaporating like a mist in the winds, and with dear friends I weep over the whole thing.

MHO, (based on sources that are/were in country)
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