The Turkey problem

[southerncross]

Interesting that the Turkish ex-General thinks the 'F-35 secrets' are already known to Russia, China and others. How? Sad.

First of all, what were the F-35 'secrets' at risk due to the S-400? How to keep the discussion on point when so vague language is used? So, even when I am not quite sure what he is referring to and also it didn't seem to me he was going into specifics or even giving much importance to that particular matter, the obvious answer to your question is through all the info that the Chinese reportedly got access to. I don't find it unlikely for a person in his position to know to what extent relevant information about the F-35 got compromised.

But the crux of the matter in any case is the perception by Turkish authorities and increasingly by the population of being in the cross-hairs of US and needing to arm themselves against that ("Don't expect me to fight the US with US weapons"). No 'sweeties' from the Trump administration are going to change that, since the issues referred to by general belong to the core of US strategy in the region.

[spazsinbad]

I'm not caring about any 'politics' or propaganda - I'm concerned about 'the point'. Not only the US but NATO and the F-35 partners are concerned about the long-running saga of the F-35/S-400 in Turkey - the nay-sayers have been clear. NO.

[spazsinbad]

Turkey Is Cozying Up To China After F-35 Expulsion, Israelis Warn
26 Jul 2019 Arie Egozi

"TEL AVIV: The expulsion of Turkey from the F-35 program could lead to closer relations for the NATO ally with China, a move likely to have far-reaching implications in the Middle East, Israeli national security experts say.

There is no doubt that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will now strengthen relations with China, says Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies here. “He knows that the Chinese have a very multi-targeted policy. They attach military help with economic interests, and Turkey will have to consider it and accept it.” Closer ties between Turkey and China will harm Washington’s work in its trade war with China, he said. In July, Erdogan visited China and declared that he is a great supporter of China’s so-called Belt and Road Initiative.... [then details which interested can read]

...Meanwhile, Israel is hopeful it may get some of the F-35 business that’s been stripped from Turkey as a result of Ankara’s decision to buy the Russian S-400 SAMs. Turkish industry was supposed to manufacture many parts of the F-35 and buy 100 of the planes. Eight Turkish companies were contracted to supply parts to the program.

Israel, which has signed a contract for 50 F-35s and is considering buying another 25, already has 10 companies supplying assemblies and electrical parts to the F-35 program. The major supplier is Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) that operates a production line for F-35 wings. Israeli sources told Breaking Defense that the vast operational experience of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) and the capabilities of the local defense industries may work in their favor.

Meanwhile, Israeli sources told Breaking Defense that there is no doubt that China will try to get as much data about the F-35 by contacting the Turkish companies that were supposed to manufacture parts and assemblies for the Joint Strike Fighter. “The Chinese are champions in that field. They try to get technologies from any available source,” one source says...." [so this is how the retired turkey general sees 'F-35 secrets' being known - LAVI given as example?] [then more China/Turkey politics]

Source: https://breakingdefense.com/2019/07/tur ... elis-warn/

[Prinz_Eugn]

Interesting that the Turkish ex-General thinks the 'F-35 secrets' are already known to Russia, China and others. How? Sad.

First of all, what were the F-35 'secrets' at risk due to the S-400? How to keep the discussion on point when so vague language is used? So, even when I am not quite sure what he is referring to and also it didn't seem to me he was going into specifics or even giving much importance to that particular matter, the obvious answer to your question is through all the info that the Chinese reportedly got access to. I don't find it unlikely for a person in his position to know to what extent relevant information about the F-35 got compromised.

But the crux of the matter in any case is the perception by Turkish authorities and increasingly by the population of being in the cross-hairs of US and needing to arm themselves against that ("Don't expect me to fight the US with US weapons"). No 'sweeties' from the Trump administration are going to change that, since the issues referred to by general belong to the core of US strategy in the region.

A Russian air defense system can be pretty easily turned into a Russian intelligence collection platform, since it would be relatively trivial for them to put in hidden back doors to their own software. In addition, in order to integrate the S-400 into Turkey's inventory, it either has to be networked with or at least loaded with the signatures of friendly platforms.

Or to be more specific, if you wanted to characterize in detail the operational RCS of the F-35, having a networked set of high-powered radars sitting unmolested near operational F-35s would be a perfect way to do that.

[SpudmanWP]

The S-400 is a highly automated & computerized IADS that would have some level of Russian tech support. On a pure "risk" issue, the part that is unacceptable is that the S-400 would be gathering radar data on any F-35's flying and because of the Russian Tech support, there was no guarantee that the data could be kept from the Russians.

The second part of the issue is that as a NATO country, the last thing that you would do is buy a major weapon system from the one country that you were formed to defend against.

[element1loop]

Sucking-up to China to potentially get FC-31 is the obvious move but suspect Russia will get access before them (much more on offer and more likely to have cash). If Russia can't get them I reckon Turkey could forget about getting them before Russia does. Either way Turkey's chronically collapsed currency and implied dwindling national reserves trying to prop it up already precludes Turkey buying big-ticket imports any time soon (like F-35A/B).

10 year chart of Turkish Lira verses USD. (ever since Erdogan came to power the Lira has been been losing cred)
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... D&view=10Y

10 year chart of Turkish Lira verses Yuan.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... Y&view=10Y

10 year chart of Turkish Lira verses Ruble.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... B&view=10Y

Maybe we find out in 10 to 15 years time when FC-31 engines are finally 'ready', as I can't see them retrofitting a new engine later in LIRP jets.

[weasel1962]

First of all, what were the F-35 'secrets' at risk due to the S-400?

Anyone highlighted that both NATO members, Greece and Bulgaria operate the S-300? What gets some Turks the most is that the US administration now wants to sell F-35s to Greece. And they thought it was only Thanksgiving that Turkey gets stuffed up all the way, Greek style.

[spazsinbad]

First of all, what were the F-35 'secrets' at risk due to the S-400?

Anyone highlighted that both NATO members, Greece and Bulgaria operate the S-300? What gets some Turks the most is that the US administration now wants to sell F-35s to Greece. And they thought it was only Thanksgiving that Turkey gets stuffed up all the way, Greek style.

Searching this thread for grease found these:
Both countries Here: viewtopic.php?f=58&t=53202&p=385709&hilit=Greece#p385709
Greece is the word:
viewtopic.php?f=58&t=53202&p=416135&hilit=Greece#p416135
&
viewtopic.php?f=58&t=53202&p=396992&hilit=Greece#p396992
&
viewtopic.php?f=58&t=53202&p=396972&hilit=Greece#p396972

[southerncross]

Turkey Is Cozying Up To China After F-35 Expulsion, Israelis Warn

This sounds as Israel playing politics to increase the pressure on Turkey. China and Turkey are not in the best terms but to rattle US about Chinese / BRI advances in that particular regions seems a good strategy.

A Russian air defense system can be pretty easily turned into a Russian intelligence collection platform,

The system is not linked to Russian networks, so the only opportunity for data retrieval would be during technical support as SpudmanWP points out.

Or to be more specific, if you wanted to characterize in detail the operational RCS of the F-35, having a networked set of high-powered radars sitting unmolested near operational F-35s would be a perfect way to do that.

What would be the interest of the Turkish side to reveal the secrets of their best fighters to Russia? You can bet they would do everything possible to avoid such leaks. Russia has their own systems in the region in range to detect Israeli, CENTCOM and eventual Turkish F-35, so this risks considerations look all rather hypothetical to me.

The S-400 is a highly automated & computerized IADS that would have some level of Russian tech support. On a pure "risk" issue, the part that is unacceptable is that the S-400 would be gathering radar data on any F-35's flying and because of the Russian Tech support, there was no guarantee that the data could be kept from the Russians.

See above, I agree the moment you refer is the only when the Russian side would have a reasonable chance to get these data, but Turkish side is hardly unaware of this and they would be probably kept under observation at those times. It is difficult to say what the real chances of data leaks are.

Regarding the technical support, I wonder what other S-300 and other Russian / Soviet AD operators in NATO do to maintain their systems, I have heard no complains about them.

The second part of the issue is that as a NATO country, the last thing that you would do is buy a major weapon system from the one country that you were formed to defend against.

You mean Soviet Union?

In any case, if the matter is so incompatible with Turkish membership in NATO then kick them out. I don't think this would amuse NATO leadership though.

Sucking-up to China to potentially get FC-31 is the obvious move but suspect Russia will get access before them (much more on offer and more likely to have cash). If Russia can't get them I reckon Turkey could forget about getting them before Russia does. Either way Turkey's chronically collapsed currency and implied dwindling national reserves trying to prop it up already precludes Turkey buying big-ticket imports any time soon (like F-35A/B).

Hardly realistic at all. FC-31 is not ready so it is not an option. Besides it would be almost identical to TF-X in dimensions and roles. And then Russia has no interest whatsoever in the plane, why would they try to get it before Turkey?

If their economy was so bad how where they going to buy F-35??

And they thought it was only Thanksgiving that Turkey gets stuffed up all the way, Greek style.

The more US threatens Turkey, the more they push them into the arms of Russia / China /SCO. That is not a smart move.

[Prinz_Eugn]

A Russian air defense system can be pretty easily turned into a Russian intelligence collection platform,

The system is not linked to Russian networks, so the only opportunity for data retrieval would be during technical support as SpudmanWP points out.

So they'll only have access to it when they have access to it. Gotcha.

Or to be more specific, if you wanted to characterize in detail the operational RCS of the F-35, having a networked set of high-powered radars sitting unmolested near operational F-35s would be a perfect way to do that.

What would be the interest of the Turkish side to reveal the secrets of their best fighters to Russia? You can bet they would do everything possible to avoid such leaks. Russia has their own systems in the region in range to detect Israeli, CENTCOM and eventual Turkish F-35, so this risks considerations look all rather hypothetical to me.

It's not, but Erdogan has higher priorities, like making sure he can easily shoot down NATO aircraft "just in case" (his personal aircraft apparently almost being shot down by F-16's in the coup attempt) and generally sucking up to Putin for geopolitical reasons. Also, there's a big difference between incidental flybys at uncertain ranges and being able to sit there up close and stare for a looooong time over months or years. It's like taking picture of a car driving by your house versus one parked in your driveway.

Here are some concerns basically straight from NATO (Czech General Petr Pavel, chair of NATO Military Committee):

https://breakingdefense.com/2018/03/top ... e-grow-up/

“The value of the system is in the database,” Pavel said, “and the database will be collected on the territory of a NATO ally, with all allied assets present in Turkey” being mapped and logged into Russian systems, he said. Getting the S-400 ready for battle isn’t like handing a soldier a Kalashnikov, which can be used by any untrained soldier. Rather, Russian personnel will be on the ground to instruct the Turkish military how to operate the complicated radars and fire control systems, handing Moscow critical intelligence on what NATO assets are in the country, where they are, and what kind of capabilities they may have."
...


Just as it would be “hard to imagine that NATO experts would be sitting in Russia for several months and feeding the database,” Pavel said, “it is hard to imagine that Russian experts will be sitting in a NATO ally and feeding a Russian system with NATO data.

[Corsair1963]

The US isn't going to sell the F-35 to Turkey. If, it acquires the F-35. It's that simple....


In addition Turkey has far more to "loose" than the US or Europe or NATO. That is just plain fact....



In short Turkey is "free to cut off her nose in spite of her face. If, she wants......

TIME TO MOVE ON

[weasel1962]

It's not, but Erdogan has higher priorities

Erdogan is a sly fox. Turkey may have lost future income from F-35 production but he's not bought many F-35s yet. So Turkish industry is net positive from the partnership arrangement to date.

What may deter further US action is the 100+ plane order that Turkish airlines have with Boeing worth "only" $10 billion, much of it 737 Max. 2018, Turkey's exports to US was $8.3 billion, its imports from US was $12.3 billion.

Leverage is the language of Trump. All parties understand what that means. It would be strange for Trump to want to lose a net export country. More likely, the rhetoric will eventually be toned down.

[marauder2048]

What may deter further US action is the 100+ plane order that Turkish airlines have with Boeing worth "only" $10 billion, much of it 737 Max.

Which for an airline with a "junk" credit rating and dependence on external financing for new aircraft purchases
isn't a threat but just a recognition of their inability to afford them.

[weasel1962]

The current debt portfolio of Turkish airlines comprises ECA and US Exim Guaranteed Loan. Guess who gets hit if they don't repay....

[marauder2048]

The current debt portfolio of Turkish airlines comprises ECA and US Exim Guaranteed Loan. Guess who gets hit if they don't repay....

Guess whose aircraft get would get seized the moment they land outside Turkey should they actually default on
loan or lease (the vast majority of their fleet) payments?

We're talking about the firm orders for Boeing which haven't been and aren't likely (given their credit rating)
to get financed.