The Turkey problem

[spazsinbad]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_sm6FzX4AIbPj5.png via above: https://twitter.com/MarcusReports/statu ... 4175015942

Office of the Press Secretary FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
July 17, 2019 Statement by the Press Secretary
“Unfortunately, Turkey's decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems renders its continued involvement with the F-35 impossible. The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities. The United States has been actively working with Turkey to provide air defense solutions to meet its legitimate air defense needs, and this Administration has made multiple offers to move Turkey to the front of the line to receive the U.S. PATRIOT air defense system. Turkey has been a longstanding and trusted partner and NATO Ally for over 65 years, but accepting the S-400 undermines the commitments all NATO Allies made to each other to move away from Russian systems. This will have detrimental impacts on Turkish interoperability with the Alliance. The United States still greatly values our strategic relationship with Turkey. As NATO Allies, our relationship is multi-layered, and not solely focused on the F-35. Our military-to-military relationship is strong, and we will continue to cooperate with Turkey extensively, mindful of constraints due to the presence of the S-400 system in Turkey.”

[spazsinbad]

Similar report here with added minor detail: https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/07 ... 5-program/
&
MOAR SIMILAR: http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... llion.aspx
& …:
https://breakingdefense.com/2019/07/tur ... s-unclear/
&
To wit: https://www.defenseone.com/business/201 ... rs/158500/
&
Babble 'bout WHY:

"...Kofman [Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist at CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization in Arlington, Virginia] pointed out that the S-400 that the Russians are selling to Turkey is an export-approved version, slightly different from the one that the Russians are using. “Russians are not crying about selling their best tech to a NATO country, despite the obvious implications for technology access. That should make us wonder,” he said. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2 ... ng/158504/

"...He [Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy David Trachtenberg] added removing Turkey from the F-35 program is intended to strengthen the NATO alliance and that the US will continue working with those nations to ensure their collective security." http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... llion.aspx

"...Lord last month said the ouster could be reversed should Turkey comply with the U.S.' requests. However, Lord and Trachtenberg could not definitively say Wednesday whether that offer would stand should Turkey divest its S-400 equipment in the near future." https://www.military.com/daily-news/201 ... s-say.html

Turkey Formally Dropped From F-35 Program; DoD Estimates $500M to Retool Supply Chain [LIGHTING ffsake]
17 Jul 2019 Sam LaGrone

"THE PENTAGON – Turkey is being excised from the F-35 Lighting II Joint Strike Fighter program, and the U.S. will pay an estimated $500 to 600 million to retool the program in the aftermath, the Defense Department’s acquisition chief told reporters on Wednesday.

Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said Turkey’s acceptance of a Russian S-400 anti-air missile system last week put the F-35 program at risk, and international partners in the Lockheed Martin-built fighter program reached a consensus to remove Ankara from the program.

“I have clearly said Turkey cannot field a Russian intelligence-collection platform in proximity to where the F-35 program makes repairs and houses the F-35,” Lord said. “Much of the F-35 strength lies in its stealth capabilities, so the ability to detect those capabilities would jeopardize the long-term security of the F-35 program. We seek only to protect the long-term security of the F-35 program.”...

...“Turkey will certainly and regrettably lose jobs and future economic opportunities from this decision. It will no longer receive more than $9 billion in projected workshare related to the F-35 over the life of the program,” Lord said. “Turkey made more than 900 parts for the F-35 and had been assigned more than $1 billion in industrial participation across 10 Turkish suppliers.”

Lord said that the Defense Department had set aside $500 to 600 million in “non-reoccurring engineering” to retool the industrial base to make up for the loss of Turkish companies in the program. The industrial base would begin a “deliberate” process of removing Turkey for the supply chain by March. For the time being, the replacement suppliers will be American....

...Lord and Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy David Trachtenberg reaffirmed Turkey’s key role in NATO, highlighted future exercises in which Turkey was a participant. They sought to narrow the disagreement to the F-35 and the S-400 system that didn’t spill over to the larger alliance. The pair did not directly answer questions from reporters if the inclusion of the S-400 system in Turkey would preclude the country from joining in other aspects of NATO’s missions....

...Over the last several years, Russia has been working to perfect using different types of lower-frequency radars to provide targeting-quality tracks of stealthy aircraft – particularly the F-22 Raptor and the F-35. Pentagon reasoning, USNI News understands, was that it would be an unacceptable risk to allow a Russian radar to gather a treasure trove of signals intelligence data from the F-35s that Turkey would own and operate."

Source: https://news.usni.org/2019/07/17/turkey ... pply-chain

[loke]

The Obama admin should have made it very clear to Turkey the last time it tried to purchase advanced IADS from Russia/China (2013-2015) that doing so would lead to them being kicked out of the program.

Back in 2016 in a NATO meeting all NATO countries agreed that they would not buy Russian defence equipment.

So buying S-400 is wrong for Turkey for three reasons:

1. It cannot be operated with F-35
2. It cannot be integrated with the NATO systems
3. It violates the agreement NATO countries made in 2016


The Obama admin also made it clear. Turkey was warned numerous times. This is just Trump muddling the water and telling lies, as he tends to do more or less all the time.

Trump is also dragging his feet on the CAATSA sanctions that a bipartisan congress has instructed him to impose on Turkey. I wonder why?

[citanon]

Trump is doing the wise thing with regards to Turkey.Turkey is an important ally in a vital part of the world. Erdogan may be trying hard to pull away but there's no reason we should speed up the process by over reacting. In fact the wide thing to do is to keep a strong arm firmly around this friend and let Erdogan play out his little moves. We need to make damn sure the Turkish people know that if someone is trying to make us leave, it's Erdogan, if our alliance relationship is deteriorating, it's Erdogan. If Turkey is making unfriendly moves on the Syrian border, it's Erdogan.

Our strategy should be to not throw Erdogan a single politically exploitable bone. Pretend like he's an aspiring Ms. America contestant and give him that big friendly smothering Trump mansion hospitality and make him into the Trump girl he was meant to be. Lord knows our president has had the practice.

[Corsair1963]

The Obama admin should have made it very clear to Turkey the last time it tried to purchase advanced IADS from Russia/China (2013-2015) that doing so would lead to them being kicked out of the program.

Back in 2016 in a NATO meeting all NATO countries agreed that they would not buy Russian defence equipment.

So buying S-400 is wrong for Turkey for three reasons:

1. It cannot be operated with F-35
2. It cannot be integrated with the NATO systems
3. It violates the agreement NATO countries made in 2016


The Obama admin also made it clear. Turkey was warned numerous times. This is just Trump muddling the water and telling lies, as he tends to do more or less all the time.

Trump is also dragging his feet on the CAATSA sanctions that a bipartisan congress has instructed him to impose on Turkey. I wonder why?

Because it's all about Trump ingratiating himself. He could careless if India and Turkey acquire the S-400. As long as they buy US Weapons in return. Which, he believes will look favorably on him....

As always it all about "Trump"

[falcon.16]

(...)
3. It violates the agreement NATO countries made in 2016

Do you have link about it?

[pron]

No surprice here.

Sergei Chemezov, head of Russia's state-controlled Rostech corporation, said in a statement Thursday that Moscow would be willing to sell its Su-35 fighter jets to Turkey if Ankara "expresses interest."

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... y-64411692

[sferrin]

Because it's all about Trump ingratiating himself. He could careless if India and Turkey acquire the S-400. As long as they buy US Weapons in return.

Last I checked the F-35 is a US Weapon. TDS is curable you know. It just takes a willingness to be objective.

[spazsinbad]

Complicated stuff, I'll let the readers here read it there. Possible solutions discussed (apparently they have been already).

Where Can the US and Turkey Go From Here?
18 Jul 2019 Selim C. Sazak

"...A recent survey by Kadir Has University found that the percentage of those viewing the U.S. as the biggest threat to Turkey grew dramatically since last year, jumping from 60.2 to 81.3 percent. Almost half of the respondents cited Washington’s alliance with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), as the primary reason for their distrust of the U.S., and stated that the S-400s should be purchased no matter what. Seeing America with suspicion is one of the only things that unite the supporters and detractors of Erdogan. Washington would be remiss to ignore this reality as it charts its course forward....

...finally, think about your long game. Erdogan will go, sooner or later, but Turkey will remain. It is time for Turkey’s friends in the West and the West’s friends in Turkey to sit down, have an honest heart-to-heart, and start thinking about how we ensure that the alliance outlasts Erdogan. The battle to save the U.S.-Turkish relationship will not be an easy one, but we have not lost it just yet."

Source: https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/0 ... re/158519/

[a-10_thunderbolt]

Time to stop supporting countries which hate the US (like this Islamist dictatorship Turkey).

More support should be given to pro-American countries like Poland and Ukraine. And perhaps for the Kurds and even Taiwan.

[madrat]

I don't believe for one minute the PKK is any more trustworthy than Turkey. The US buys influence across the board, because all the eggs in one basket approach led to egg on the face.

[mixelflick]

No surprice here.

Sergei Chemezov, head of Russia's state-controlled Rostech corporation, said in a statement Thursday that Moscow would be willing to sell its Su-35 fighter jets to Turkey if Ankara "expresses interest."

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... y-64411692

I predict this will happen, further solidifying Turkey as a (now) non-US ally. I do think Trump's playing it smart, but in the end Ergodan will buy mostly Russian jets/air defense and other military hardware. It sounds like he's making decisons now out of spite, which is never a wise course of action.

It used to be that outside of Israel, her enemies flew "lesser" aircraft. Now, they have to contend with Russia itself (in Syria), and much more capable aircraft/air defense systems. I'm sure additional F-35 deliveries can't come fast enough..

[noth]

How long till the nuclear weapons at Incerlik AFB are pulled out of Turkey? This year? 2020? It's not looking good, and that means Bulgaria + Greece will need shoring up if Turkey exits NATO.

[Corsair1963]

By Andrew Tillett







Australian suppliers are poised to swoop and increase their share of work for the Joint Strike Fighter after Donald Trump ejected Turkey from the program.




The aircraft's manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, has begun talks with suppliers including Australian companies to fill the void as Turkish businesses are cut out of the global supply chain.




Australia's Defence Department is monitoring the issue but was unable to say whether Turkey's exile will disrupt the production and delivery schedule for the remaining 56 aircraft the RAAF has on order.




"Defence is aware that the US-led F-35 Joint Program Office has been working to quantify the effect on the global F-35 acquisition schedule and sustainment system in the event of Turkey’s removal from the program and continues to engage closely in this work," the department said in a statement.




Defence Industry Minister Melissa Price said the government was committed to maximising participation for Australian firms.




“I understand the program will primarily use US sources for Turkey’s workshare to bridge the gap initially, however this will gradually open up to other program partners – including Australia – for opportunities to be supply sources," she said. (end of excerpt)


https://www.afr.com/news/politics/natio ... 718-p528gi

[boilermaker]

The Obama admin should have made it very clear to Turkey the last time it tried to purchase advanced IADS from Russia/China (2013-2015) that doing so would lead to them being kicked out of the program.

Back in 2016 in a NATO meeting all NATO countries agreed that they would not buy Russian defence equipment.

So buying S-400 is wrong for Turkey for three reasons:

1. It cannot be operated with F-35
2. It cannot be integrated with the NATO systems
3. It violates the agreement NATO countries made in 2016


The Obama admin also made it clear. Turkey was warned numerous times. This is just Trump muddling the water and telling lies, as he tends to do more or less all the time.

Trump is also dragging his feet on the CAATSA sanctions that a bipartisan congress has instructed him to impose on Turkey. I wonder why?

As much as I believe the Russia investigation to be bullsht, Michael Flynn was a pro Turkey traitor who should be jailed for life. The CAATSA sanctions that Trump has issues with must originate from that dumba$$ general