The Turkey problem

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ricnunes

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Unread post16 Jul 2019, 21:41

elshad wrote:One problem with the rise of conspiracy theories in Turkey is that the opposition (secularists etc.) do almost nothing to counter it, and in many cases pander to the crazies because they think it will suit them politically. That's why there are very few politicians left in Turkey who actively defend its historical ties with the U.S., NATO, West etc. You can see in in instances where the opposition absurdly claim that Erdoğan is a puppet of the U.S. and Israel, in order to appeal to the anti-American vote.


Couldn't it also be that opposition that you're talking about is persecuted by Erdogan and his regime specially if they demonstrate ideas which are opposite to Erdogan's own ideas/agenda?

(honest question here)
A 4th/4.5th gen fighter aircraft stands about as much chance against a F-35 as a guns-only Sabre has against a Viper.
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Unread post16 Jul 2019, 21:56

Consipracy theory? Crackpot views?

Westerners recruiting ISIS fighters for YPG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQWsemH8y2E

ISIS units passing through YPG controlled area (looks like Rakka)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GG-oVbp8rI

US protecting Nusra front to force regime change in Syria - Sergei Lavrov - BBC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUyYg8BrYkw

and a classic (way better than that aussie blond):
A Few Good Man "You Can't Handle the Truth"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5j2F4VcBmeo

By the way, found any WMD in Iraq? Or still searching? That is a consipracy theory.
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spazsinbad

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Unread post16 Jul 2019, 22:15

:devil: Can anyone decipher what Trump is saying below? :devil: I give up. NOT. :doh: Are we clear? :roll: :twisted: What buy? :mrgreen: :roll:

Same Same message here: http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... ivery.aspx
&
MORE: https://breakingdefense.com/2019/07/tru ... in-senate/
&
MORE MORE: https://www.defenseone.com/politics/201 ... d-topstory
Trump: Turkey Will Be Out of F-35 Fighter Jet Program After S-400 Buy
16 Jun[JULY! that is what the URL says] Oriana Pawlyk

"The Trump administration has confirmed that NATO ally Turkey will be removed from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program after it began accepting deliveries of the Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile system, which Moscow calls the "F-35 killer."

While President Donald Trump called it "a very tough situation," he said sales of the stealth jet to Turkey would no longer be an option due to its pursuit of the S-400. "We are now telling Turkey that because you have really been forced to buy another missile system, we're not going to sell you the F-35 fighter jets," he confirmed before a cabinet meeting at the White House.

"With all of that being said, we're working through it. We'll see what happens, but it's not really fair. They wanted to buy. [WUT? DOOS THEY WANT TO BOUGHT!?] I don't stick up for countries. I don't stick up for Turkey," Trump said, adding he still has a "good relationship" [that's nice] with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan....

...these type of risks -- sometimes foreseen -- within a high-level program are not unique, Bogdan [Bogdan, who was the JPO chief between 2012 and 2017, was replaced by Vice Adm. Mathias W. "Mat" Winter in the job. Winter retired last week] said. "The dilemma of a partner leaving the program is not new to the F-35 [Joint Program Office]," he said, referencing troubles the U.S. has had getting Canada to commit to the program.

"I would suspect that the JPO, in concert with the other parts of the U.S. government, were not surprised by this necessarily and have a set of courses of actions that they're working through," he said about the Turkey fallout. "What is different about this situation is that Turkey's already bought airplanes and committed to buying the airplanes, but now they've committed to buying a radar system that is totally incompatible with having both the F-35 and that radar system," he said....

...Officials from both the Pentagon and Lockheed Martin, the F-35's manufacturer, told Military.com in recent weeks that they are looking to mitigate or track any risks to the program that could arise. Those risks could include costs, production facility setbacks or production mismanagement from a supplier.

Turkish industries produce 937 parts for the F-35, including items for the landing gear and fuselage.

There is a little bit of wiggle room. It takes three to four years to build an F-35, so there is time to play catch-up should an entire production line close down, a Defense Department official, speaking on background, said Friday. The U.S. will look to American suppliers for the time being as Turkey slowly exits the program, the official said. The plan is to cancel contracts with Turkey by early 2020, according to Lord."

Photo: "Military vehicles and equipment, parts of the S-400 air defense systems, are unloaded from a Russian transport aircraft, at Murted military airport in Ankara, Turkey, Friday, July 12, 2019. (Turkish Defence Ministry via AP, Pool)" https://images03.military.com/sites/def ... 00.png.jpg


Source: https://www.military.com/daily-news/201 ... 0-buy.html
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Last edited by spazsinbad on 16 Jul 2019, 23:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post16 Jul 2019, 23:02

Turkish, Russian Defense Ministries Confirm S-400 Delivery
16 Jul 2019 Vladimir Karnozov

"..."The S-400 purchase and the disputes that took place over the issue showed us the common sense of our people,” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Sunday when meeting prominent members of the local media in Istanbul. “The move aims to bolster the national security and sustain regional peace,” he insisted. "This is not an arbitrary purchase—this is a compulsory purchase."

According to Erdoğan, “a certain batch of equipment” will have been shipped by the year-end, and the whole shipment process is to be completed by April 2020. A hundred Turkish servicemen are in Russia for training on the S-400, but to fully man the system the nation needs “10 times more” specialists, and most of them will be trained in the country.

Although Erdoğan believes Turkey’s S-400 acquisition “will produce a strong impact on NATO … making the bloc stronger,” [delusional much?] the U.S. has been applying pressure on Ankara, urging it to give up shopping in Russia for weapons. Washington is considering applying Countering America’s Adversaries by Sanctions Acts (CAATSA) and removing Turkey from the F-35 program...."

Source: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... 0-delivery
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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Unread post16 Jul 2019, 23:56

polarbear wrote:Consipracy theory? Crackpot views?
YT as a source.... FAIL

polarbear wrote:By the way, found any WMD in Iraq? Or still searching? That is a consipracy theory.

They actually found quite a bit. What they did not find were large programs. You have to remember that Sadam's own leadership team was lying to him about the status of their WMD programs to keep themselves from being killed. You can't blame us for their lying back & forth amongst themselves about their own programs. This is why the inspections were important and were supposed to continue. Sadam did not help his case by constantly molesting the inspectors.
"The early bird gets the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese."
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Unread post17 Jul 2019, 00:28

It's good news that Turkey is out, at least. Hopefully this is permanent.

The madness of giving such technology to a primitive, third world Islamic dictatorship boggles the mind, though. What were they even thinking?
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Unread post17 Jul 2019, 02:23

I read on CNN Turkey is out. Not getting the F-35, thats what Trump said.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/16/politics ... index.html

"Trump blames Obama as he reluctantly bans F-35 sales to Turkey"
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Corsair1963

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Unread post17 Jul 2019, 02:32

firebase99 wrote:I read on CNN Turkey is out. Not getting the F-35, thats what Trump said.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/16/politics ... index.html

"Trump blames Obama as he reluctantly bans F-35 sales to Turkey"



Turkey is the one to blame. As to trade the F-35 and everything associated with it. In order to acquire the S-400. Has to be one of the "Biggest Military and Economic Blunders" of all time....
:doh:
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Unread post17 Jul 2019, 05:53

The Obama admin should have made it very clear to Turkey the last time it tried to purchase advanced IADS from Russia/China (2013-2015) that doing so would lead to them being kicked out of the program.
"The early bird gets the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese."
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Unread post17 Jul 2019, 07:46

SpudmanWP wrote:The Obama admin should have made it very clear to Turkey the last time it tried to purchase advanced IADS from Russia/China (2013-2015) that doing so would lead to them being kicked out of the program.



Turkey was made well aware of the "consequences" of buying Russian. (or even Chinese) Hell, Turkey is suppose to be a "NATO MEMBER". You don't kiss and sleep with the enemy...

Also, don't tell me the Turkish Military isn't well aware that trading the F-35 and everything that goes with it for the S-400. Would be nothing short of a colossal mistake...


This all come down to a political decision by Erdogan to maintain power. Nothing more nothing less...

:doh:
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Unread post17 Jul 2019, 09:13

Lawmakers say Trump is locked into Turkey sanctions
16 Jul 2019 Joe Gould & Aaron Mehta

"...The administration’s delayed response has fueled speculation Trump was looking to avoid a fight with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whom he has sympathized with in the past. And notably, the president did not say whether he would impose sanctions on Turkey under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA. But members of Congress this week said the law is very clear: Trump has no choice but to sanction its NATO ally.

Days ago, Erdoğan has expressed a belief that Trump has the authority to waive sanctions on Turkey for its purchase of the Russian air defense systems and must “find the middle ground.” But Trump may find Congress closed the door to compromise last year when it set a high bar to waive U.S. sanctions on countries that buy Russian weapons.

Lawmakers from both parties said the waiver language was included to accommodate allies India and Vietnam, it was tailor-made not to let Turkey off the hook for its purchase of the S-400, and a waiver would be impermissible under current circumstances. The White House, under the law, will instead have to choose from the law’s menu of sanctions, several lawmakers said.

“There’s wide latitude about what to do about the sanctions, but the sanctions certainly need to be put in place,” Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., a Turkey critic and one of the lawmakers involved in drafting the waiver provision, said Tuesday.

For years, the U.S. and other NATO allies have expressed alarm that plugging the Russian system into the alliance could lead to data leaks and security breaches, voicing fears it would allow Russia to gain information about the stealthy F-35 fighter....

Sanctions Coming
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the Washington Post on Sunday he was confident the president would levy sanctions as CAATSA requires. “The law requires that there be sanctions and I’m confident that we will comply with the law and President Trump will comply with the law,” Pompeo said....

...Erdoğan’s comments, that Trump “has the authority to waive or postpone CAATSA,” came two days after NATO member Turkey took delivery of the first tranche of advanced Russian S-400 missile defense system parts, despite warnings from Washington that the move would trigger CAATSA. “Since this is the case, it is Trump who needs to find the middle ground,” Erdoğan told Turkish journalists, per Reuters.... [more delusion]

…[then lots of blah blah about sanctions & waivers at the jump]…

...“There is a menu of options and there could be something that’s not the death penalty for the Turkish economy,” Bhatiya [Center for a New American Security’s ​Neil Bhatiya] said."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/congress/20 ... re-coming/
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popcorn

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Unread post17 Jul 2019, 13:06

CAATSA...gotcha!
"When a fifth-generation fighter meets a fourth-generation fighter—the [latter] dies,”
CSAF Gen. Mark Welsh
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Unread post17 Jul 2019, 14:25

a-10_thunderbolt wrote:It's good news that Turkey is out, at least. Hopefully this is permanent.

The madness of giving such technology to a primitive, third world Islamic dictatorship boggles the mind, though. What were they even thinking?


Probably about Turkey's strategic location/basing. Third world or not, location is everything...
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blindpilot

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Unread post17 Jul 2019, 18:15

mixelflick wrote:Probably about Turkey's strategic location/basing. Third world or not, location is everything...


True ... except, since the old cold war days, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria are now joining Greece as allies far more trustworthy than Turkey has ever been. The map has changed since the old equations were run. My Marine Grandson sailed in the Black Sea and was welcomed with Parades and Band music. I never got that in Turkey in the olden days.

Asymetrical responses such as selling Patriot batteries to the Ukraine, and THAAD to Poland, linger like vultures in Russian geopolitical calculations. It is not just a sumo match in Turkey.

And honestly, Turkey has deep running issues with Russia going back centuries. That is not easily cast aside. E is digging himself a deep hole.

FWIW,
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elshad

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Unread post17 Jul 2019, 19:57

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