The Turkey problem

[loke]

The US government is pushing back against reports that President Donald Trump acquiesced to Turkey’s request to discuss Ankara’s pending purchase of a Russian missile defense system, telling Al-Monitor that its concerns “cannot be mitigated.”

The comments come after the London-based Middle East Eye news site, citing “several Turkish officials,” reported today that Trump had overruled the State and Defense departments and agreed to create a working group on the issue in a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier this week. US officials have suspended Turkey’s participation in the F-35 fighter jet program over the pending purchase, but Ankara believes it can convince them that the Russian technology isn’t a threat.

“We have been clear that purchasing the S-400 would create an unacceptable risk because its radar system could provide the Russian military sensitive information on the F-35,” Department of Defense spokesman Eric Pahon told Al-Monitor. “Those concerns cannot be mitigated. The S-400 is a system Russia built to try to shoot down aircraft like the F-35, and it is inconceivable to imagine Russia not taking advantage of the collection opportunity.”

Instead, the US administration continues to try to convince its NATO ally to purchase the US-made Patriot missile defense system.

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... z5pocVAANR

Nothing new. Both leaders being deadlocked transferred the problem to a powerless committee.

What powerless committees are you referring to?

In any case, Erdogan is not stepping down (or back):

Turkey will not take a step back from S-400 missile deal with Russia, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on June 4.
“There is an agreement. We have determination. It is out of the question to take a step back from it [S-400 deal],” Erdoğan told reporters in Istanbul.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdoga ... eal-143926

The US is also quite firm:

Kay Bailey Hutchison, the U.S. NATO ambassador and former U.S. senator, told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble Tuesday that Russia is trying to “continue to probe ways” to disrupt and weaken the NATO alliance, adding that a Russian missile system under the same military control as an F-35 fighter jet was unacceptable.
“You have to make a choice. You can have one or the other but not both,” she said, before repeating that Turkey stands to “lose association” with the F-35s that they have already ordered.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/04/us-nato ... chase.html

Turkey is making a huge mistake...

Curiously, while Turkey maintains they need S-400 for "defence", the alliance they are part of (also known as NATO) is keeping the Turks well protected, at least until now:

Madrid is in a process of deciding the extension of Patriot air defense missiles in Turkey's southern Adana province for the next six months, Spanish ambassador in Ankara said.
“Battery of Patriot missiles were deployed in Incirlik Airbase [in Adana province] at the request of Turkey through NATO. We are in the process of deciding extension for the next six months,” Juan Gonzalez-Barba told Anadolu Agency.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/spains ... ths-143877

[polarbear]

Spanish patriots are only protecting US base at incirlik, not Turkey. All turkish assets that need protection -Dams, key bridges and tunnels, population centers and ports- are beyond the range of that battery and virtually defenceless except oerlikons, a few ihawks and f-16 interceptors from Malatya and Diyarakır; so it is useless to us. They are only keeping american assets protected, dont think that we overlooked that minor detail. Such actions only deepens our distrust against NATO.

Trump had overruled the State and Defense departments and agreed to create a working group on the issue

This is the committee... Nothing will come out of it. S-400 deal is a done deal; insisting on blackmailing will only make things worse for US. We had a similiar situation with UK at 1914. The government was doing everything possible to keep germans at bay and trying to enter an alliance with british. Brits in turn replied by confiscating two dreadnoughts which were already paid for; effectively pushing ottoman empire into an alliance with axis. In İstanbul nobody could argue for allies after that incident. Germans seizing the opportunity, offered 2 forlorn ships in their stead and rest is history. Turkey is honouring the f-35 contract to the letter and those aircraft are paid for. If US backs off from this deal, it will lose its credibility thus ability to make any deal with Turkey, most probably with disastrous long term consequences.

If you can find, read the prologue section of Liddell Hart's "History of WW I". It tells step by step how germans alienated themselves by backing off Bismarck's deals, by making blackmailing a preferred tool of diplomacy, by abusing previously established relations with "mailed fist with velvet glove" policies. The similarities with US governments actions are striking.

[vilters]

You seem to like in the past.
For Your Info : Spanish soldiers are protecting NATO assets AGAINST the Turks.
Did you really think they where protecting Turkystan?
Whow ! Wake up man.

We live in times where NATO has to protect itself against another NATO country.
THAT is reality.

Why do you think all Turks with money are fleeing the country in masses? ?

[mor10]

In the end, Dictators don't like to be dictated.

[falcon.16]

Spanish patriots are only protecting US base at incirlik, not Turkey. All turkish assets that need protection -Dams, key bridges and tunnels, population centers and ports- are beyond the range of that battery and virtually defenceless except oerlikons, a few ihawks and f-16 interceptors from Malatya and Diyarakır; so it is useless to us. They are only keeping american assets protected, dont think that we overlooked that minor detail. Such actions only deepens our distrust against NATO.

Trump had overruled the State and Defense departments and agreed to create a working group on the issue

This is the committee... Nothing will come out of it. S-400 deal is a done deal; insisting on blackmailing will only make things worse for US. We had a similiar situation with UK at 1914. The government was doing everything possible to keep germans at bay and trying to enter an alliance with british. Brits in turn replied by confiscating two dreadnoughts which were already paid for; effectively pushing ottoman empire into an alliance with axis. In İstanbul nobody could argue for allies after that incident. Germans seizing the opportunity, offered 2 forlorn ships in their stead and rest is history. Turkey is honouring the f-35 contract to the letter and those aircraft are paid for. If US backs off from this deal, it will lose its credibility thus ability to make any deal with Turkey, most probably with disastrous long term consequences.

If you can find, read the prologue section of Liddell Hart's "History of WW I". It tells step by step how germans alienated themselves by backing off Bismarck's deals, by making blackmailing a preferred tool of diplomacy, by abusing previously established relations with "mailed fist with velvet glove" policies. The similarities with US governments actions are striking.

Spanish Patriots system stay in Turkey for protect Turkish territory from some attack from Syrian side. It is official information, not what you can thing.

https://www.moncloa.com/espana-turquia-bateria-patriot/

There are other batteries now or before from other Nato countries too.

[loke]

Spanish patriots are only protecting US base at incirlik, not Turkey. All turkish assets that need protection -Dams, key bridges and tunnels, population centers and ports- are beyond the range of that battery and virtually defenceless except oerlikons, a few ihawks and f-16 interceptors from Malatya and Diyarakır; so it is useless to us. They are only keeping american assets protected, dont think that we overlooked that minor detail. Such actions only deepens our distrust against NATO.

Trump had overruled the State and Defense departments and agreed to create a working group on the issue

This is the committee... Nothing will come out of it. S-400 deal is a done deal; insisting on blackmailing will only make things worse for US. We had a similiar situation with UK at 1914. The government was doing everything possible to keep germans at bay and trying to enter an alliance with british. Brits in turn replied by confiscating two dreadnoughts which were already paid for; effectively pushing ottoman empire into an alliance with axis. In İstanbul nobody could argue for allies after that incident. Germans seizing the opportunity, offered 2 forlorn ships in their stead and rest is history. Turkey is honouring the f-35 contract to the letter and those aircraft are paid for. If US backs off from this deal, it will lose its credibility thus ability to make any deal with Turkey, most probably with disastrous long term consequences.

If you can find, read the prologue section of Liddell Hart's "History of WW I". It tells step by step how germans alienated themselves by backing off Bismarck's deals, by making blackmailing a preferred tool of diplomacy, by abusing previously established relations with "mailed fist with velvet glove" policies. The similarities with US governments actions are striking.

1. As falcon.16 said, the Patriot system is there to protect Turkey. It was positioned in Southern Turkey on request of Turkey. Surely you know this.

2. There is no committe, and will not be a committe:

The US government is pushing back against reports that President Donald Trump acquiesced to Turkey’s request to discuss Ankara’s pending purchase of a Russian missile defense system, telling Al-Monitor that its concerns “cannot be mitigated.”

The comments come after the London-based Middle East Eye news site, citing “several Turkish officials,” reported today that Trump had overruled the State and Defense departments and agreed to create a working group on the issue in a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier this week. US officials have suspended Turkey’s participation in the F-35 fighter jet program over the pending purchase, but Ankara believes it can convince them that the Russian technology isn’t a threat.

“We have been clear that purchasing the S-400 would create an unacceptable risk because its radar system could provide the Russian military sensitive information on the F-35,” Department of Defense spokesman Eric Pahon told Al-Monitor. “Those concerns cannot be mitigated. The S-400 is a system Russia built to try to shoot down aircraft like the F-35, and it is inconceivable to imagine Russia not taking advantage of the collection opportunity.”

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... z5q07WQPfb

[polarbear]

It is true that we requested those Patriots before desert storm. Sadly what had been sent was only a tiny fraction of what was needed, only enough to protect american assets, placed to protect american assets. The remarks made in private conversations between military officers about the "help" of nato were not of printable type when iraq began launching scuds. Needless to say goodwill and trust toward nato plummeted.

Open the map, plot the area spanish battery is protecting at its current location, only valuable target in it is incirik base. Even iskenderun harbour, petrochem refinery, loading and storage facilities are out of range; which can be covered without comprimisig the safety of incirlik with a simple change of deployment location. True, city of Adana lies within area of protection but nobody will attack Adana while there are much easier targets like Antep or Hatay. It seems spanish government is acting with good intentions in this loan; but placement of battery tells another story.

"https://odatv.com/abdden-turkiyeye-yaptirim-iddiasi-07061922.html"

It seems Washington decided to suspend pilot training. Turkey is being pushed out of NATO step by step and I simply do not understand what US is aiming to gain by achieving it.

[spazsinbad]

US-Turkey Relations At Precipice; New F-35 Restrictions
07 Jun 2019 Colin Clark

"...“There are no measures which can mitigate our concerns” over the impending S-400 deal, Andrew Winternitz, the Pentagon’s acting assistant secretary for NATO policy, said yesterday afternoon at a US Institute for Pearce conference on the European Union.

The Pentagon has scheduled a briefing with acquisition chief Ellen Lord for reporters at 1 pm today and is likely to announce further steps to end Turkey’s participation in the F-35. Turkey has been a substantial partner in the F-35 since the program’s beginning, was committed to buy 100, and several Turkish pilots have trained to fly the plane. At least four planes have been prepared for delivery to Turkey but they have been kept in the United States pending Turkey’s final act on the S-400.

The US has slowly increased the pressure, warning Turkey, threatening to stop delivery of the first four Turkish F-35s, halting delivery of F-35 parts and now we are at the stage where the US will wind up Turkish participation in the program....

...My colleague Lara Seligman at Foreign Policy reported this morning that 42 Turkish students training at Luke and Eglin Air Force Bases “will be required to depart” by July 31. After that, “all international travel orders will be cancelled, and Turkish Air Force personnel will be prohibited from entering the bases.”

Senior military and civilian leaders have warned that Russia could get valuable information about the F-35’s capabilities if Turkey were to operate the S-400s while also flying the Joint Strike Fighter.

In a recent piece for us, Robbin Laird outlined the choices the Turkish leader faces, saying, “Erdogan is acting is if his membership in NATO is a birthright which allows him significant room for maneuver to expand south and east. He needs to learn that he has significantly less room for maneuver if he continues to stab the West in the back.” He may have run out of room."

Source: https://breakingdefense.com/2019/06/us- ... trictions/

[loke]

It seems Washington decided to suspend pilot training. Turkey is being pushed out of NATO step by step and I simply do not understand what US is aiming to gain by achieving it.

Polarbear, that is bollocks.

The US (and also other NATO countries, in particular those ordering the F-35) has made it very clear that ordering S-400 is not compatible with ordering F-35. This has been stated for a long, long time. It has been explained in detail that Turkey cannot operate both S-400 and F-35. It is very simple. You cannot have both. If you choose the S-400 then you will not have F-35. Why do you pretend to not listen to this? Why do you pretend to not understand?

What do you think would happen if, say, Finland had ordered S-400? Yes, that is correct; they would not get access to F-35. What do you think would happen if Canada (also an F-35 partner) had ordered S-400? Yes, correct: Canada would have been kicked out of the F-35 program, and would not be able to order F-35 until they had gotten rid of the S-400.

The thing is, other NATO countries would not even consider buying a system like S-400 from Russia, one of the few (perhaps only?) country that has officially declared NATO as hostile and a foe. You don't buy strategic military equipment from people that treat you as a foe and tries to undermine you and your allies. Russia has worked hard to undermine the democracies in the US and several European countries, including NATO countries like Germany, the UK and France, but also non-NATO countries including Sweden, Finland and others.

I find it incomprehensible (and also quite disgusting) that a NATO country would buy S-400 from Russia, thereby strengthening Russia's defence industry, and undermining NATO allies at the same time. Even worse (yes, it does get worse) is to suggest to codevelop S-500 with Russia, in addition to buying the S-400.

The US is not kicking Turkey out of NATO. It is Turkey that is proactively taking steps to remove itself from NATO.

Please stop playing stupid and ignorant about NATO. It may work in other, less informed forums, but not around here.

[spazsinbad]

NATO’s New Military Commander: ‘I Suspect’ Turkish-Alliance Mil-to-Mil Ties Will Endure
07 Jun 2019 Patrick Tucker

"In his first sitdown interview as SHAPE, Gen. Todd Wolters said Ankara cannot have both the F-35 and S-400.

BRATISLAVA, Slovakia — NATO’s recently installed Supreme Allied Commander Europe walked a delicate line on Friday, reiterating U.S. concerns about Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system from Russia yet affirming Ankara’s value as an ally.

Gen. Tod Wolters, who also leads U.S. European Command, spoke at the GLOBSEC security conference here in his first sit-down interview since stepping into the job in May. Wolters reiterated other U.S. commanders’ concerns that Turkish S-400s would feed sensitive data to their Russian makers.

“You cannot operate an F-35 in the vicinity of an S-400. They won’t talk to each other, and what the two systems will attempt to do, certainly the S-400 against the F-35, is attempt to exploit the F-35’s capabilities. I can tell you that we aren’t interested in sharing the F-35’s capabilities from a radar perspective, from an operational perspective, with the Russians. We’ve made that very, very clear.”

The United States has decided to stop accepting new Turkish pilots who want to come learn how to fly the plane, according to a Thursday report by Reuters. Citing a June 6 letter from Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan to his Turkish counterpart, Foreign Policy added that unless Turkey backs out of its S-400 deal by July 31, the United States will cancel Turkish orders for the jet and send home the 42 Turkish pilots currently training on the jet at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida and Luke Air Force Base in Arizona...."

Source: https://www.defenseone.com/politics/201 ... d-topstory

[loke]

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is preparing to transfer Turkey’s industrial participation in the F-35 to other countries unless Ankara reverses course on its plans to buy the Russian S-400 air defense system.
The move — which would end contracts with major Turkish defense contractors such as Turkish Aerospace Industries, Roketsan and Tusas Engine Industries among many others in early 2020 — is just one step of many the U.S. Defense Department intends to take to strip Turkey from the F-35 program, according to a June 6 letter by acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan.

“If Turkey procures the S-400, as we discussed during our call on May 28, 2019, our two countries must develop a plan to discontinue Turkey's participation in the F-35 program,” Shanahan wrote in the letter, which was addressed to his counterpart, Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar. “While we seek to maintain our valued relationship, Turkey will not receive the F-35 if Turkey takes delivery of the S-400.”
However, Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisitions and sustainment, noted that Turkish participation in the program would be allowed to continue provided that it drops its plans to buy the Russian air defense system. The delivery of the S-400 could occur as early as this month.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/06 ... m-in-2020/

Polarbear you should take notice of the following:

“Turkey still has the option to change course. If Turkey does not accept delivery of the S-400, we will enable Turkey to return to normal F-35 program activities,” she told reporters Friday. “Turkey is a close NATO ally and our military-to-military relationship is strong.”

Does that sound like somebody trying very hard to kick Turkey out of NATO? NOPE!!!

[SpudmanWP]

US Outlines Plan to Remove Turkey from F-35 Program
The U.S. Defense Department has given Turkey one last chance to cancel its planned order of the Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile system before it begins removing the NATO ally from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.

In a letter sent to Turkish Minister of Defence Hulusi Akar, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on Thursday outlined a list of actions the U.S. will begin taking to suspend Turkey's participation in the F-35 program starting July 31.

...

Shanahan said the parameters also restrict Turkey from participating in the annual F-35 Chief Executive Officer Roundtable on June 12.

...


The Defense Department will remove all Turkish personnel from the F-35 Joint Program Office no later than July 31. "At this point, all Invitational Travel Orders (ITOs) and/or Common Access Cards (CACs) will be canceled, and Turkish Air Force personnel will be prohibited from entering JPO facilities," the letter states.

...

Two Turkish instructor pilots have completed training, with four students currently in training, Maj. Rebecca Heyse, 56th Fighter Wing spokeswoman, told Military.com on Friday.

There are now a total of 42 students -- pilots and maintainers -- attending F-35 training in the U.S. at Luke and at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, according to the Pentagon.

...

Lord said Friday that the Pentagon is looking to U.S. suppliers to potentially replace production on parts that Turkey makes for the Joint Strike Fighter program, adding that discussions are ongoing.

Turkish industries produce 937 parts for the F-35, including items for the landing gear and fuselage, she said.

Discussions between the plane's manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, and engine manufacturer Pratt & Whitney to find alternate sources are "well underway, but [nothing] has been finalized," Lord said.

“Managing a program of this scale and complexity, we are constantly evaluating the supply chain for risks and continue to develop plans that ensure continuity in production," said Mike Friedman, a Lockheed spokesman. "Our team is committed to minimizing any impact to the program so that we can continue to deliver and sustain this transformational capability for all F-35 operators."

Much more at the jump
https://www.military.com/daily-news/201 ... ogram.html

[spazsinbad]

Turkish suppliers to be eliminated from F-35 program in 2020
07 Jun 2019 Valerie Insinna

"WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is preparing to transfer Turkey’s industrial participation in the F-35 to other countries unless Ankara reverses course on its plans to buy the Russian S-400 air defense system. The move — which in early 2020 would end contracts with major Turkish defense contractors such as Turkish Aerospace Industries, Roketsan and Tusas Engine Industries, among many others — is just one of many steps the U.S. Defense Department intends to take to strip Turkey from the F-35 program, according to a June 6 letter from acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan....

...Turkish companies are responsible for 937 parts used to build the F-35, with 400 of those sole-sourced from Turkish firms, Lord [Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment] said. Existing contracts would go through a “disciplined and graceful wind down” period in “early 2020,” Lord said. “If we can work to our timelines with the Turks, we would have no major disruptions and very few delays,” she said.

Vice Adm. Mat Winter, the F-35’s program executive, said in April that 50-75 aircraft could be delayed over a two-year period if Turkey is removed from the program, according to Breaking Defense. But Lord said those disruptions would occur only if the Pentagon terminated its supply chain agreements this summer.

Ultimately, prime contractors Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney will make the decisions on which subcontractors replace the Turkish vendors, but the Pentagon has identified new suppliers that could step up and make the parts currently sole-sourced by Turkey. “They are predominantly U.S. sources. That’s not to say that we won’t continue to do what we always do with program management and look for other sources, because we would like to have second, third sources for most of the items,” she said....

...Despite Turkey’s industrial role in the program, Lord said she was confident that all important technical information would stay secure. "We control what is downloaded from our computers. We have shared what's appropriate. The Turks have no critical documentation that we're concerned about,” she said....

...In addition, the country will not be allowed to attend the annual F-35 Chief Executive Officer roundtable on June 12 — depriving Turkey of the opportunity to give input on any changes to the program’s governing documents....

...Asked whether a final decision to buy the S-400 should be interpreted as Turkey bolstering its relationship with Russia at the expense of NATO, Andrew Winternitz, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe, demurred.

“Our counterparts really want to continue our really strategic partnership and our cooperation at NATO. And so we hope this is an aberration,” he said. If Turkey buys the S-400, he added, “it changes our relationship, but it’s not something that we hope is going to disturb the many-layered strategic partnership that we have in Turkey across a number of issues.”

But other political actions may be unavoidable. Should Turkey move forward with the S-400 purchase, it could trigger additional sanctions from Congress as part of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, which penalizes U.S. partners who purchase Russian military equipment. It could also impact future military exercises in Turkey, Winternitz said."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/06 ... m-in-2020/

[vilters]

Erdoclown should study history.
All dictators end up flat on their belly and with no friends left.

[polarbear]

I am not playing stupid or ignorant; just trying to show the truth so that someone will listen and take action before the proverbial s..t hits the fan. If not, everybody will be covered with it; it will be much more costly and difficult to clean up; and the stink of it will remain between us for a long time. Within 10 years F-35 will be another standart gadget, its utility much diminished with the development of effective countermeasures. We can do without it, we may be even better without it. And the knowledge of betrayal will remain. Let me give ou a tip what will this lead to. Why Turkey has not bought a single warship from UK for more than a century?

There is not a clause in F-35 project charter and agreement stating Turkey can not buy russian arms. If this matter is that much important; why was it not placed on charter or agreement? We would have known what we were getting into and acted accordingly. Legally speaking US is breaking the deal.

In the case of S-400, Patriots are technically useless -underranged and unreliable in terms of IFF-, horribly expensive and unavailable. We already backed off from a deal with chinese -and suffering all of economical consequences - hoping US would act responsibly; but Patriots remanied technically useless, horribly expensive and unavailable. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice ...

I will wander off the forum topic for a while but it is necessary. Speaking of disgusting matters; it is not russians who are running an armed recessionist movement within turkish border. We killed it twice and US resurrected it, not once but twice. One can not be any more hostile, short of a coup d'état or openly declaring war. And again it was not russians who did not disappoint us on that front and attempted a coup, using a mad imam as catpaw. The guy unabashedly wrote " While we seek to maintain our valued relationship ", as if anything left. Wolters, by the virtue of not being a slimy diplomat or politician, is much more honest and realistic; he knows Turkish - US relations can not go on like that anymore; he can not voice an opposing view aloud, so he "suspect" not "expect". What we expect from US from now on are limited scale armed clashes directly or through catpaws, and considering US armed forces tendency to fire without warning from behind; we wish to be prepared for the incident. S-400 is one of the precautions and will be delivered as soon as possible.






These will not happen again.