The Turkey problem

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jakobs

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Unread post12 May 2019, 21:04

marsavian wrote:
krieger22 wrote:Bild's diplomatic sources are claiming that Turkey will abandon the S-400 purchase attempt. It's paywalled and in German, though.

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/a ... .bild.html


https://ahvalnews.com/us-turkey/f-35-pa ... y-pentagon


German newspaper Bild reported on Friday that the Erdoğan government was about to make a u-turn and back out of the S-400 deal. Erdoğan's communication director, Fahrettin Altun, denied these claims, saying "the S-400 procurement is a done deal".

The U.S. Department of Defense halted the shipment of F-35 parts in early April. Lord said the U.S. administration had been working "for some time" to find alternate sources of supply for the part of the F-35 supply chain currently met by Turkey.

“We see a potential slowing down of some deliveries over the next two years, some potential cost impacts,” she said. “But right now we believe we can minimize both of those and are working on refining” that analysis.


https://mobile.twitter.com/fahrettinalt ... 3172742145

Dear Julian,

Your sources are mistaken.

Take it from me: The S-400 procurement is a done deal.


Looks to me like the turks is looking high and low for a way out of the deal with the Russians.

My guess: Erdogans inner circle leaked those claims so they could see how the Turkish public loyal to Erdogan would react.
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Unread post13 May 2019, 01:38

Rather than public, it is military the rookie sultan must convince if he wants to back up from this deal. Especially GHQ and Land Forces HQ. S-400 is not a decision taken on the spot or hastily conjured up response against a US transgression. It is an answer to a long series of unnamed embargoes and actions US governments chose to take. For this case we wanted Patriots first and refused. Before that there was AH-1Z issue, also refused, so we ended up developing our own gunship. Also there was AT missile issue; refused again by US, got cheated by French so we are forced to develop our own. A-10 aircraft, night vision equipment, MBT, MRLS, the list goes on and on. Of particular interest to this group; there were F-16 source code, targeting pod and guided bomb issues, which are solved by producing domestic variants. I will write about them later if anyone is interested.
Long story short, Turkish Armed Forces; fed up with blackmailing and outright hostile demeanour of US goverments; are phasing out US equipment wherever possible. What Erdoğan thinks is of little value at this point. The problem is a lot deeper. It will take some serious change of policy, accompanied with decisive and effective action, from US side to rebuild trust and goodwill lost, assuming US government is willing and able.
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Unread post13 May 2019, 02:17

The elephant in the room is of course Israel. The driver of US relations in the ME. Looking at the last 50 years and in particular, the last few. Why would they trust the US to be a reliable ally? There could even be an Iran war as a distraction. There are also the Christian fanatics, that are looking for armageddon and the second coming. The last few years has also affected Australia in the asia pacific region.
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loke

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Unread post13 May 2019, 08:09

polarbear wrote:Rather than public, it is military the rookie sultan must convince if he wants to back up from this deal. Especially GHQ and Land Forces HQ. S-400 is not a decision taken on the spot or hastily conjured up response against a US transgression. It is an answer to a long series of unnamed embargoes and actions US governments chose to take. For this case we wanted Patriots first and refused. Before that there was AH-1Z issue, also refused, so we ended up developing our own gunship. Also there was AT missile issue; refused again by US, got cheated by French so we are forced to develop our own. A-10 aircraft, night vision equipment, MBT, MRLS, the list goes on and on. Of particular interest to this group; there were F-16 source code, targeting pod and guided bomb issues, which are solved by producing domestic variants. I will write about them later if anyone is interested.
Long story short, Turkish Armed Forces; fed up with blackmailing and outright hostile demeanour of US goverments; are phasing out US equipment wherever possible. What Erdoğan thinks is of little value at this point. The problem is a lot deeper. It will take some serious change of policy, accompanied with decisive and effective action, from US side to rebuild trust and goodwill lost, assuming US government is willing and able.

Do you have any sources for all of this?

AFAIK the "issue" with the Patriot deal was that Turkey made some very strong demands in terms for tech transfer, that the US could not accept, and that this was the main reason why Turkey was not able to buy the Patriot.

As for source code, well yes, that has always been an issue with the US, Australia which is a very close ally of the US also had the same issue. Why would Turkey be given more access to source code than countries like Australia? What makes you so special?

Also, it seems very strange that Turkey would go into the F-35 partnership if what you write above is really correct...
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Unread post13 May 2019, 10:08

'loke' above said: "...As for source code, well yes, that has always been an issue with the US, Australia which is a very close ally of the US also had the same issue...." Do you have a reference for this claim - source code for what exactly?
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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loke

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Unread post13 May 2019, 11:03

spazsinbad wrote:'loke' above said: "...As for source code, well yes, that has always been an issue with the US, Australia which is a very close ally of the US also had the same issue...." Do you have a reference for this claim - source code for what exactly?

I don't remember the details, something to do with the old Hornets, this is several years ago. I think they resolved it in the end but it took some time and effort. Was it related to radar libraries or EW libraries or IFF or something along those lines? Can't remember the details.

Another more recent example is of course the F-35 -- even the UK, a level 1 F-35 partner and one of the closes US allies had to do a lot of arm-twisting to get access to the source code -- I am not sure what level of access they got in the end? Turkey has also complained a lot about access to F-35 source code:

https://web.archive.org/web/20110315091 ... -jets.html

Again, the question is why Turkey believe they are so special? It seems only Israel and the UK are "special" in this context. I don't think Norway (which has been a very close US ally since WW2) will get access to F-35 source code; and if/when we buy Patriot for sure any tech transfer will be limited. That is just how it is. Turkey should either accept it, buy European, or develop their own. Going to Russia is a terrible idea from all aspects. It seems rather odd to buy such a key system from a country that repeatedly has declared NATO to be "the enemy"...
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Unread post13 May 2019, 11:39

The TURKEY CODE story for F-35 is EIGHT YEARS OLD - sure there was a KERFUFFLE about this issue by several country's NAYsayers and jiminy crickets it all must have been resolved in the same teacup storm eh. Even the UK was happy.

Just throwing the word CODES about earlier without any other reference to aircraft/what for is just silly - STOP IT.

Last century in Australia a HORNET 'code' issue was resolved by Australian ingenuity (with bragging much much later).

The F-35 CODE issue for the UK was resolved to their satisfaction whilst NO ONE has 'the code' - except the US etc.

As to why ANY COUNTRY thinks they are special is why that country is what it is - a country separate from other countries.
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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loke

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Unread post13 May 2019, 11:43

spazsinbad wrote:The TURKEY CODE story for F-35 is EIGHT YEARS OLD - sure there was a KERFUFFLE about this issue by several country's NAYsayers and jiminy crickets it all must have been resolved in the same teacup storm eh. Even the UK was happy.

Just throwing the word CODES about earlier without any other reference to aircraft/what for is just silly - STOP IT.

Last century in Australia a HORNET 'code' issue was resolved by Australian ingenuity (with bragging much much later).

The F-35 CODE issue for the UK was resolved to their satisfaction whilst NO ONE has 'the code' - except the US etc.

As to why ANY COUNTRY thinks they are special is why that country is what it is - a country separate from other countries.

Grumpy today, are we? :D
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Unread post13 May 2019, 12:05

I'm wondering why you brought up an EIGHT YEAR OLD STORY when it was resolved to the satisfaction of ALL countries involved in the F-35 enterprise. And what is this about TURKEY 'special'. Is that on the menu? No ONE country is special at all except those F-35 countries which (by agreement with all involved) have extras on their F-35s. Brake Chute and interface for Israeli gizmos are some examples. However as I understand ANY country can have these extras if they so require. AND any modified F-35s are more or less the same when viewed by other F-35s - by whatever means available.
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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Unread post13 May 2019, 12:13

spazsinbad wrote:'loke' above said: "...As for source code, well yes, that has always been an issue with the US, Australia which is a very close ally of the US also had the same issue...." Do you have a reference for this claim - source code for what exactly?

You may recall the source code software issue, mainly with the UK. They wanted the keys to the safe. AU stated they were happy with the access they got and needed. It was the same as what the UK finished up with.

EDIT, I should have kept reading the later posts, it's been sorted
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loke

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Unread post13 May 2019, 12:43

spazsinbad wrote:I'm wondering why you brought up an EIGHT YEAR OLD STORY when it was resolved to the satisfaction of ALL countries involved in the F-35 enterprise. And what is this about TURKEY 'special'. Is that on the menu? No ONE country is special at all except those F-35 countries which (by agreement with all involved) have extras on their F-35s. Brake Chute and interface for Israeli gizmos are some examples. However as I understand ANY country can have these extras if they so require. AND any modified F-35s are more or less the same when viewed by other F-35s - by whatever means available.

You missed my point.
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Unread post13 May 2019, 16:18

Which is?
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Unread post13 May 2019, 16:32

Lord: F-35 Will Take a Hit on Schedule, Cost if Turkey is Out; Partners Supportive
10 May 2019 John A. Tirpak

"The F-35 program will likely experience both schedule delays and cost increases if Turkey is pushed out of the program, but the Pentagon is working on ways to mitigate the potential fallout in that event, Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen Lord said in a May 10 press conference.

“We see a potential slowing-down of some deliveries over the next two years” if Turkey is voted out of the F-35 program, Lord said, as well as “some potential cost impacts. But right now we believe we can minimize both of those and are working on refining them.” She said the partners are “very supportive” of the US’ insistence that Turkey drop its plans to buy the Russian S400 Triumf air defense system and instead buy something that is NATO compliant. She said she met with the other JSF partners recently in Brussels, Belgium, at a conference of armaments directors, and they back the US approach.

Turkey is “a very good supplier on the F-35 program,” Lord asserted, noting that partner countries are awarded F-35 supply chain contracts based on value. She said the Pentagon has been looking at alternative supply sources, but expressed hope that a deal can still be made with Turkey that would prevent its departure from the program.

Turkey’s planned purchase of the S400 has roiled both NATO and the JSF partnership, as the US has charged that Russian technicians would gain valuable insight in how to detect and track the F-35 if they were allowed to see the two systems function in close proximity. The Turkish government has rebuffed the US offer of the Patriot air defense system as a substitute for the S400, saying the Triumf sale and delivery is a “done deal” and the system will be delivered this summer. Lord declined to explain Turkey’s objections to the Patriot, saying only, “We’re under discussions right now to replace the S400 with the Patriot.”...

...President Trump is scheduled to visit Turkey and meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July, it was announced last week. The two are expected to discuss a number of issues including trade, Middle East security, NATO, and areas of friction between the two countries, such as the S400 deal. The S400 could potentially be delivered during Trump’s visit...."

Source: http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... rtive.aspx
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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Unread post13 May 2019, 22:55

Thanks for the kind responses to my post. I am more of a lurker than a poster, and english is not my primary language so thanks again for the opportunity and practice.

At the time F-35 project started, Turkish-US relations were not strained as they are today. Through patience, show of goodwill, honest cooperation and sharing of knowledge, we thought we could influence US to a course of action to avoid the bloodshed and chaos reigning today in middle east. Foolish and naive thinking on our behalf as it turned out to be. Will Turkey enter a similar project today? Not likely i think, but necessity is known to create strange bedfellows...

"Deserving" the code is irrelevant; either we have it or the system -whatever it is- is not bought anymore. I will tell the underlying story how it come to be: The sole F-16 shot down in an air to air action is a turkish f-16 killed by a greek mirage. Officially sterilized details of the incident is on wikipedia, the bitter truth uncovered at the end of inquiry is pilot was not warned of the threat and countermeasures were not deployed becouse the system classified the killer as ally and did not recognize launched missile as threat. Source codes requested for examination and guess what: Requests refused. Repeatedly. Armywide inquiry revealed stingers and several naval systems and radars suffering from a similar "bug". You can imagine the outrage among the troops. Most of these systems could not be taken offline so they are used as is until havelsan and aselsan purged their defects. Adding insult to the injury, greeks did not seem to be affected by the same "bug". Some of the pilots who flew patrols over aegean, knowing that a greek murderer could sneak upon them anytime undetected becouse US government wanted it so, became generals and leading TuAF now. They had seen the face of reaper, survived and will have a merry time with US diplomats trying to convince them in July.

Fikret Bila is a distinguished reporter and columnist who wrote in Milliyet when it used to be a reputable newspaper. -Before the rookie sultan had it bought and turned into a tabloid-. He is known as unofficial voice of GHQ; when GHQ wants a matter known to public without causing an international incident, he is the guy who comes up with a "fictional" story. Unlike Aslı and Nagehan, this guy is honest to the bone and his integrity is impeccable. My second source is wikipedia. For all the systems I mentioned - AH-1Z, M1 MBT, Javelin, M227 MLRS ... -among the references you will see an article with a similiar pattern. The system proves itself on the field of battle, Turkish army is interested in acquiring the system, system is tested and shortlisted. Then voila, some US diplomat visits. After a while although technically everything is going on fine, the need is urgent and money available; project is silently shelved with no apparent reason. Call it a hunch on which i am willing to bet my last 2 cents.
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Unread post13 May 2019, 23:50

That particular issue is not related to the "code" of the F-35. That information is stored in the "Threat Libraries" (ie Mission Data Files) that Turkey and all other Partners will maintain at US based MDF Reprogramming sites.

The other main reason to have the codes is to integrate you own weapons. The F-35 handles this by adding UAI to the Block 4 Upgrade. Even Turkey accepted this and is integrating the SOM-J via the UAI interface. Future versions of UAI and other APIs like it, will allow for pods (EW, RECCE, etc) to be integrated with little effort.

The only other API that is applicable at this time but is rarely reported on (unsurprising) is the API that allows Parters to run an "app" on the F-35's computer without having to need to know the codes. Israel is the first with this and will add their C4 app without changing any hardware on the F-35.
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