The Turkey problem

mixelflick · by **mixelflick** » 06 May 2019, 17:30

Turkey's leadership being unable to swallow their pride is a bad, bad omen. Almost certainly there will be fallout from this - and it won't be good for Turkey.

If they stay this route, Turkey can kiss the F-35 NATO goodbye, and welcome Russia and her substandard weapons/"leadership" the way Syria is now. It's not going to be pretty..

loke · by **loke** » 06 May 2019, 19:28

ANKARA, May 6 (Reuters) - Turkey expects NATO to support its rights in the eastern Mediterranean, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday, after the United States and European Union voiced concerns over Ankara’s plans for offshore drilling in an area claimed by Cyprus as its exclusive economic zone.

Speaking at NATO’s North Atlantic Council Mediterranean Dialogue Meeting in Ankara, Erdogan also said that Turkey rejected arguments claiming its deal to purchase Russian S-400 defence systems meant Ankara was looking for alternatives in its international ties.

https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey- ... SA4N20201U

This does not look good at all. Actually it looks very bad.

Some people may say "good riddance" however keep in mind Turkey has until recently played an important role in NATO. They have been a reliable partner for decades, has flown F-16s and also joined the F-35 program and planned to purchase 100 F-35.

Unless there is a last-minute U-turn (either a military coup, which seems highly unlikely after all the purges; or Erdogan suddenly changes his mind) then Turkey will leave the F-35 program in a few months, and may even leave NATO. I still hope for a U-turn...

SpudmanWP · by **SpudmanWP** » 06 May 2019, 19:48

How can Turkey expect to stay in the F-35 program let alone NATO if they can't even read a map?

madrat · by **madrat** » 07 May 2019, 00:48

They have to since China funds their insubordination.

Corsair1963 · by **Corsair1963** » 07 May 2019, 01:49

loke wrote:
ANKARA, May 6 (Reuters) - Turkey expects NATO to support its rights in the eastern Mediterranean, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday, after the United States and European Union voiced concerns over Ankara’s plans for offshore drilling in an area claimed by Cyprus as its exclusive economic zone.

Speaking at NATO’s North Atlantic Council Mediterranean Dialogue Meeting in Ankara, Erdogan also said that Turkey rejected arguments claiming its deal to purchase Russian S-400 defence systems meant Ankara was looking for alternatives in its international ties.

https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey- ... SA4N20201U

This does not look good at all. Actually it looks very bad.

Some people may say "good riddance" however keep in mind Turkey has until recently played an important role in NATO. They have been a reliable partner for decades, has flown F-16s and also joined the F-35 program and planned to purchase 100 F-35.

Unless there is a last-minute U-turn (either a military coup, which seems highly unlikely after all the purges; or Erdogan suddenly changes his mind) then Turkey will leave the F-35 program in a few months, and may even leave NATO. I still hope for a U-turn...

I honestly doubt Turkey will leave NATO. It just isn't in their own interest...

marsavian · by **marsavian** » 07 May 2019, 02:13

Turkey will face economic sanctions from both the EU and the US with this oil play as the EU moves as one and Congress is already fed up with it with the F-35 hassle. The Turkish North of Cyprus has never been recognized by anyone other than Turkey being a conquest domain and Erdogan wants NATO to recognize their rights ! This guy is delusional to the nth degree. If the West does not enter a war with this clown then that will be a good result, F-35 is a sideshow now to the bigger problems of Turkey's territorial ambitions against Greece, Cyprus, Syria and the Kurds as well as their general animosity to Israel. Due to its location it may even be a bigger danger than Iran.

spazsinbad · by **spazsinbad** » 07 May 2019, 05:12

Russia pitches Turkey the Su-57 fighter jet if F-35 deal with US collapses
06 May 2019 Burak Ege Bekdil

"ANKARA, Turkey — Russia is “ready to cooperate” with Turkey to sell its new-generation Su-57 fighter jet in case the Ankara government and Turkish companies are expelled from the U.S.-led F-35 program, according to a senior Russian defense official. “These fifth-generation Russian fighter jets [Su-57] have outstanding qualities, and show promise for export,” said Sergei Chemezov, head of Russia’s state-owned Rostec Corporation.

Chemezov’s statement came in confirmation of an Apr. 19 Defense News story that said if U.S. officials were to expel Turkey from the multinational group that builds the F-35, Turkish defense officials likely would pursue Russian fighter jet technology....

...But a defense procurement official said a “geostrategic assessment” would make Russian options emerge as the natural choice. “Russian fighter technology would the first best choice if our American allies behaved in an un-allied way and questioned Turkey’s membership in the Joint Strike Fighter program,” the official said...." [AS IF]

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... collapses/

spazsinbad · by **spazsinbad** » 08 May 2019, 06:39

It seems it 'pays' to shoot down a Ruskie Jet. This all gets better and betterer by the day. THE LONG GOODBYE.

IDEF’19: Su-57 May Provide Turkey with an F-35 Alternative
07 May 2019 Vladimir Karnozov

"All documents necessary to arrange shipments of the Sukhoi Su-57 to would-be foreign customers have been prepared, and export clearance for this fifth-generation fighter can be expected soon. “The Su-57 has a high export potential,” according to Russian minister for industry and trade Denis Manturov. Broadcast last month, his words inspired several potential customers, notably in Beijing and Ankara, who have reportedly approached Moscow for details. Information was given at IDEF’2019 in Istanbul, a show that saw a large Russian contingent and a number of high-ranking guests.

Speaking to local media, the head of the Rostec state corporation—Russia’s defense industry giant controlling hundreds of OEMs—said that Moscow is ready to supply Ankara with fifth-generation fighters, provided that Turkey files such a request. In broader terms, Sergei Chemezov said: “In case the Turkish side files a request about the production localization or technology transfer [of a particular weapon system], we will consider it with joy. The rest is to do with negotiated solutions to be found during bilateral talks.” He added that documents permitting Su-57 exports are on the path to validation. Moscow is also interested in cooperating with Ankara on advanced anti-aircraft systems such as the S-500, in particular, should Ankara express an interest in becoming a partner in the development of this next-generation surface-to-air missile (SAM) system.

Although the S-500 is still in development, it is meant to become the mainstay of Russia’s air defense system following induction in 2019-2020. It is described as “a most advanced SAM system that has no equal in the rest of the world.” Chermezov said, "Both nations can contribute to this project.”...

... According to Moscow, Russo-Turkish relations are built on a mutually beneficial basis, which makes them immune to foreign interference.... [Erdogan is being played I guess - shoot down another RUSKIE Jet & get more RESPECT! ]

...Agreed in 2017, the $2.5 billion S-400 deal should result in deliveries of Fakel 40N6 missiles later this summer. To facilitate the sale, Russia has provided a loan covering 55 percent of the contract sum. Erdogan calls the S-400 “a done deal” and adds that the purchase of such advanced systems is a sovereign right of Turkey and that the nation will not compromise it.

In the meantime, Washington wants Ankara to stop its arms trade with Moscow, threatening economic sanctions and refusal to supply F-35 Lightning II fighters. Turkey received an initial pair of F-35s in June 2018, and another two earlier this year. Turkish air force pilots have been undergoing training at Luke AFB in Arizona in anticipation of redeploying their new jets in November to Malatya in Turkey. Local industry has been involved in the development and production of F-35 components under the Joint Offensive Aircraft Project: Alp Aviation provides bodywork and landing gear, and ASELSAN has developed electro-optical targeting systems and air intervention controls. Ayesaş supplies the missile remote control interface and panoramic cockpit imaging system, and Fokker Elma produces electrical cabling and internal connection systems. Havelsan provides training systems, while Kale Aviation produces structural parts, connectors and landing gear locking systems."

Source: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... lternative

lbk000 · by **lbk000** » 08 May 2019, 14:53

Turkey received an initial pair of F-35s in June 2018, and another two earlier this year.

What is the disposition of these F-35s again? They are in Turkey? In Turkish hands?

SpudmanWP · by **SpudmanWP** » 08 May 2019, 15:55

They are in the US at Luke AFB.

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your ... e-program/

krieger22 · by **krieger22** » 11 May 2019, 06:06

Bild's diplomatic sources are claiming that Turkey will abandon the S-400 purchase attempt. It's paywalled and in German, though.

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/a ... .bild.html

spazsinbad · by **spazsinbad** » 11 May 2019, 06:24

Pentagon Seeking Potential Replacements for Turkish F-35 Parts
10 May 2019

"THE PENTAGON — The Defense Department is seeking alternate suppliers for parts of the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter currently provided by Turkish companies, as Turkey’s pursuit of a Russian air defense system threatens its continued participation in the jet program.

The Pentagon has made clear that it will not allow Turkey to buy F-35 jets if it also buys the S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft system. Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, told reporters today that Turkey would also not be allowed to remain involved in supplying parts for the jets, and that the program has “for some time” been looking elsewhere for potential suppliers.

“The U.S. continues to speak with Turkey on a routine basis. We have been very clear that the F-35 and the S-400 are incompatible. We have had Turkey as a NATO ally for many years, they’re also a very good supplier on the F-35 program. Those partners in the F-35 program are awarded supply chain contracts on the basis of value,” she said. “We have for some time now been working to look at alternate sources of supply for the F-35 supply chain that is inside Turkey right now; that being said, we continue to work with Turkey and hope that they will use a NATO-compliant system for their air defense system.”...

...Lord noted that the U.S. and its F-35 partners are in agreement that Turkey cannot operate both the Joint Strike Fighter and the Russian S-400, and she said the U.S. and NATO are pushing Turkey to buy Raytheon’s Patriot air and missile defense system...."

Source: https://news.usni.org/2019/05/10/pentag ... f-35-parts

marsavian · by **marsavian** » 11 May 2019, 07:30

krieger22 wrote:Bild's diplomatic sources are claiming that Turkey will abandon the S-400 purchase attempt. It's paywalled and in German, though.

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/a ... .bild.html

https://ahvalnews.com/us-turkey/f-35-pa ... y-pentagon

German newspaper Bild reported on Friday that the Erdoğan government was about to make a u-turn and back out of the S-400 deal. Erdoğan's communication director, Fahrettin Altun, denied these claims, saying "the S-400 procurement is a done deal".

The U.S. Department of Defense halted the shipment of F-35 parts in early April. Lord said the U.S. administration had been working "for some time" to find alternate sources of supply for the part of the F-35 supply chain currently met by Turkey.

“We see a potential slowing down of some deliveries over the next two years, some potential cost impacts,” she said. “But right now we believe we can minimize both of those and are working on refining” that analysis.

https://mobile.twitter.com/fahrettinalt ... 3172742145

Dear Julian,

Your sources are mistaken.

Take it from me: The S-400 procurement is a done deal.

marsavian · by **marsavian** » 11 May 2019, 09:03

Is Erdogan’s trust in Trump in the S-400/F-35 standoff misplaced?

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... laced.html

Never one to give in to pressure, though, Erdogan is clinging to his position and saying the S-400 deal will not be revoked. He clearly does not want to upset Russian President Vladimir Putin, on whom Erdogan is relying to counterbalance Turkey’s worsening ties with the West.

Rather than try to calm the situation, Erdogan is stoking the fire by saying that the S-400s could be in Turkey by July, and possibly even earlier.

Meanwhile, Ankara continues to insist that Turkey will not bow to US pressures under any circumstances. Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay reiterated this May 7 during a television interview when he said Turkish officials will “not surrender to anyone’s Congress.”

He was referring to the US Congress, which wants sanctions to be slapped on Ankara over its S-400 purchase and for the delivery of F-35s to be withheld.

Akar said during a television interview May 3, “There is no clause in [the NATO] partnership saying 'you will be excluded if you buy S-400s.'” He said, “Excluding us just because any one country wants to do so would not be in line with justice, laws or rights. This should not happen."

Meanwhile, Erdogan’s acolytes in the media are arguing that the S-400 purchase is not a sign that Turkey is drifting away from NATO.

“Turkey is and always will be a NATO member. It is a strong country in the alliance, and it is impossible to imagine Ankara acting against NATO's interests,” wrote Nagehan Alci in the pro-government daily Sabah.

“However, Turkey doesn't want to be ruled by the United States. It is a big country and wants the freedom to engage in relations with as many large powers as possible,” she added, saying it was time for Washington “to set aside its Cold War mindset.”

The bottom line is that Turkey wants the S-400 and the F-35 and is seeking a formula that will enable it to have its cake and eat it too.

The only means it has in its arsenal to try to achieve this, though, appears to be its belief that the F-35 program will collapse without Turkey’s participation, and a belief that Trump will weigh in and deliver what Ankara wants.

Addressing the IDEF 19 International Defense Industry Fair Istanbul on April 30, Erdogan said, “Any F-35 project that excludes Turkey will be condemned to collapse totally.”

Cognitive dissonance is strong with this one.

mixelflick · by **mixelflick** » 12 May 2019, 13:23

Wow, talk about delusional.

At this point, I wouldn't give the F-35 to Turkey even if they backed out of the S-400 deal. It's going to make him look bad, and I'm sure he's so emotionally immature he'd do something to compromise the F-35 out of spite. Keep those F-35's in the US. Better yet, gear them toward air to air and let's put the F-15EX to bed once and for all!!!