The Turkey problem

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Corsair1963

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Unread post01 May 2019, 09:57

loke wrote:
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalın and U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton discussed the Russian S-400 air defense system via telephone Tuesday, according to presidential sources

https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/20 ... -to-turkey

So there is still a possibility that this can be resolved...



As I've said countless times. I believe they will work out a deal in the end. Just to much at stake for both sides. Especially, Turkey as a split with the West would be "crushing".
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loke

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Unread post01 May 2019, 10:23

Well, there are many issues -- if the US really designate the MB as a terrorist organization, this will become another issue between Turkey and the US -- Erdogan is AFAIK quite close to the MB....

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/30/poli ... index.html

To be frank, unless there is a new more "western friendly" leadership in Turkey in the not too distant future I am still concerned that there will be a major split. There is a lot of anti-Western sentiment in Turkey these days, and Erdogan seems to push this as well... which does not help. In addition, many in the US and europe are very sceptical about the direction Turkey seems to be moving in...
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madrat

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Unread post01 May 2019, 13:18

My biggest concerns with arming Turkey is the same as arming Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf neighbors. The combined spending of these countries is alarming and far overshadows the need to thwart an Iranian aggression. History points to this region of the world coming together for expansion of their common religion. Israel is surrounded by quite a large sum of opposing forces and I'd hate for them to gain any more closer to a resemblance of an edge on the IAF. Israel is the West's sole counterweight in the region. We really need the Kurds to be a second counterweight even if it means pissing off the Turks. A hundred years ago the Turks were essentially intent on reviving the Ottoman empire. When the Iron Curtain came down this medieval dream reawakened. The unsettled 'Balkans' has remained a tinderbox predominately as a result of this very public dream.
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loke

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Unread post01 May 2019, 18:31

madrat wrote:My biggest concerns with arming Turkey is the same as arming Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf neighbors. The combined spending of these countries is alarming and far overshadows the need to thwart an Iranian aggression. History points to this region of the world coming together for expansion of their common religion. Israel is surrounded by quite a large sum of opposing forces and I'd hate for them to gain any more closer to a resemblance of an edge on the IAF. Israel is the West's sole counterweight in the region. We really need the Kurds to be a second counterweight even if it means pissing off the Turks. A hundred years ago the Turks were essentially intent on reviving the Ottoman empire. When the Iron Curtain came down this medieval dream reawakened. The unsettled 'Balkans' has remained a tinderbox predominately as a result of this very public dream.

Although I share many of your concerns, I am not (yet) that pessimistic -- although there are strong anti-Western forces in Turkey that probably would not mind getting out of both F-35 and NATO, there still remains many Turks that are more positive to the West. THe issue is, that if there is a split between Turkey and the West, and they drop out of F-35 and also NATO, then most likely they will move over to "the other side".... which could be a disaster for Turkey, the whole of ME, and Europe and the US. And of course Israel.
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loke

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Unread post03 May 2019, 22:29

Published
03.05.2019
23:30

Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan reiterated his country's opposition to Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, saying that Pentagon will halt manufacturing support for the F-35.

Shanahan told journalists the government remained steadfast in its opposition to Turkey's adoption of the S-400 anti-aircraft technology.

https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/20 ... nahan-says
2 hours ago
WASHINGTON — Key House lawmakers announced their bill Friday to bar the sale of the F-35 warplane to Turkey if Ankara buys the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system.

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/20 ... or-turkey/

Turkey cannot any longer claim that they receive "mixed messages" from the US... (well, with the qualifier that the US President may muddle the water, as he as done before...)
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spazsinbad

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Unread post04 May 2019, 05:44

Lawmakers offer bill to block F-35 for Turkey
03 May 2019 Joe Gould

"WASHINGTON — Key House lawmakers announced their bill Friday to bar the sale of the F-35 warplane to Turkey if Ankara buys the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system.

The bipartisan trio of senior House Armed Services Committee members — Reps. Mike Turner, R-Ohio; John Garamendi, D-Calif., and Paul Cook, R-Calif., sponsored the bill, a companion to a bipartisan bill from Sen. James Lankford, R-Kan., and others. Both bills are called the “Protecting NATO Skies Act of 2019.”

“Operating the S-400 alongside the F-35 would compromise the aircraft and its sensitive technology, impact interoperability among NATO allies, and most importantly pose serious risk to our shared defense and security," Garamendi said in a statement. "This bill sends a strong and important message to Turkey — proceeding with the S-400 is unacceptable and will not be tolerated.”...

...U.S. officials say the Russian defense system could pose a threat to the F-35 program and have warned of consequences if the purchase is finalized. Turkey denies that the system is a threat [WAIT... WUT?!] and has proposed a joint committee to review security risks....

...However, after months of warnings, Washington stopped delivery of F-35 fighter jet parts to Turkey last month in retaliation for Ankara’s decision to move ahead with the purchase of a Russian surface-to-air missile system.

Last month, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., and ranking member Jack Reed, D-R.I., penned a New York Times op-ed with Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch, R-Idaho, and ranking member Bob Menendez, D-N.J., threatening legislation that would bar Turkey from both the F-35 and S-400."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/congress/20 ... or-turkey/
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
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loke

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Unread post04 May 2019, 07:24

Spazinbad, I linked to that article in the post just above your post....
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spazsinbad

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Unread post04 May 2019, 08:59

Missed it - excusez-moi. :doh: However some more quotes from it were posted that are relevant nestpas? :roll:
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
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Unread post04 May 2019, 13:02

At this point, I wouldn't give them the F-35 even if they don't acquire the S-400.

Just imagine how miffed they'd be, and what they'd do with their F-35's and its secrets..
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madrat

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Unread post04 May 2019, 13:10

The US needs to stop propping up faux partners, especially ones that are influenced by the Asian gangs trying to subvert our policies.

The funny thing about defining threats out there is obfuscation of what and whom are threats. American society is being perverted in a way that blunts their ability to fight obvious external influences. Our younger generations need catching up on reality.
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loke

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Unread post05 May 2019, 15:29

Turkey rejects the statement by EU’s High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini calling on Turkey “to show restraint, respect the sovereign rights of Cyprus in its exclusive economic zone and refrain from any such illegal action to which the European Union will respond appropriately and in full solidarity with Cyprus.”

In a statement, Turkey’s foreign ministry insists that it has “legitimate rights stemming from international law” to engage in hydrocarbon exploration activities and accuses the “Greek Cypriot Administration” of “irresponsibly jeopardizing” the area’s security and stability.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/240125/arti ... off-cyprus
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar reiterated Sunday the hardline stance on drilling inside Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Stance expressed Saturday by the country's foreign ministry.

Akar told Anadolu News Agency that Ankara is determined to protect its rights in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea under international law.

“As a guarantor country, Turkey is determined to always protect the rights of the people of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and not to allow the fait accompli," Akar added.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/240129/arti ... -eu-summit

Then there is this:
Turkey condemned the participation of a Greek Cypriot representative to NATO's change of command ceremony on May 3.
The invitation to the Greek Cyprus administration, which is not a NATO member, to the change of command ceremony is inexplicable, said Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy.

"We condemn the unilateral behavior of SHAPE headquarters. We recall that these headquarters are under the political control of NATO members including Turkey," Aksoy said.

Turkey boycotted NATO's change of command ceremony on May 3 to protest against the participation of a Greek Cypriot representative.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey ... ent-143147

Coincidence?
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loke

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Unread post05 May 2019, 18:09

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey will never bow to U.S. sanctions over its agreement to purchase Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense systems, Vice President Fuat Oktay said on Sunday regarding a deal that has strained ties between the NATO allies.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turk ... SKCN1SB06J
It seems Turkey is not able or not willing to get out of the mess they have created!? It now seems likely to me that they will drop out of the F-35 program...! The implications will be huge, for the US, Turkey, and Europe...
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SpudmanWP

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Unread post05 May 2019, 19:28

As they say, "Pride cometh before the fall".
"The early bird gets the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese."
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loke

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Unread post06 May 2019, 08:14

NATO’s chief embarked on a final push to convince Turkey to abandon its plan to buy Russian missiles by backing talks over its possible purchase of an alternative U.S.-made air-defense system.

“I welcome and encourage the discussions about Turkey’s possible acquisition of a U.S. Patriot missile system,” Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told Turkey’s state news agency Anadolu in an interview published on Sunday. “Decisions about military procurement are for nations to make,” but “interoperability of our armed forces is fundamental to NATO for the conduct of our operations and missions,” he said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... lcome-step

In other news:
“The United States is deeply concerned by Turkey’s announced intentions to begin offshore drilling operations in an area claimed by the Republic of Cyprus as its Exclusive Economic Zone,” said State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus.

“This step is highly provocative and risks raising tensions in the region. We urge Turkish authorities to halt these operations and encourage all parties to act with restraint,” the statement said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turk ... SKCN1SC0D5
Egypt on Saturday warned Turkey against drilling for natural gas off Cyprus, citing the impact of Turkey’s planned move on the security and stability in East Mediterranean Sea, the Egypt Independent online newspaper reported.

“Any actions by states in the region need to abide by the rules of international law and its provisions,” the newspaper quoted the Egyptian foreign ministry as saying.

https://ahvalnews.com/east-mediterranea ... iterranean
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elshad

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Unread post06 May 2019, 11:06

loke wrote:Although I share many of your concerns, I am not (yet) that pessimistic -- although there are strong anti-Western forces in Turkey that probably would not mind getting out of both F-35 and NATO, there still remains many Turks that are more positive to the West. THe issue is, that if there is a split between Turkey and the West, and they drop out of F-35 and also NATO, then most likely they will move over to "the other side".... which could be a disaster for Turkey, the whole of ME, and Europe and the US. And of course Israel.


AFAIK only one of the opposition parties in Turkey (İYİ Parti) has explicitly criticised the S-400 purchase and the risk posed to the F-35, and more generally moves towards Russia. They are the most pro-West party. CHP is as well but not as explicit.
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