The Turkey problem

[spazsinbad]

How Turkey’s industry could suffer from the S-400 deal with Russia
11 Apr 2019 Burak Ege Bekdil

"...Ankara remains defiant. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said April 10 that the country could open negotiations with Russia to purchase a second batch of S-400s.

A U.S. diplomatic source has told Defense News that the direct cost of U.S. sanctions on the Turkish industry could reach $10 billion. “And that excludes indirect costs,” he added.

Turkey is a partner is the multinational, American-led Joint Strike Fighter program that builds the F-35. Turkey has committed to purchase more than 100 new-generation jets. Several Turkish companies are producing parts for the JSF program, including airframe structure and assemblies, landing gear components, and more than 100 F135 engine production parts to include titanium-integrated blade rotors....

..U.S. sanctions could potentially target senior procurement officials and prominent Turkish companies participating in the S-400 contract. “That would create a second wave of sanctions … by curbing and halting Turkish companies’ international programs and deals, including know-how, with non-U.S. (but Western) defense entities,” the American source said. “Here we are talking about another heavy damage in addition to the dismissal from the F-35 program.”

Additionally, the U.S. may disrupt Turkey’s current and future systems export efforts, including those for the T129 attack helicopter, built by TAI under license from the Italian-British firm AgustaWestland. The T129, based on its predecessor, the A129 Mangusta, is a twin-engine multirole attack helicopter....

...A Turkish aerospace industry executive admitted that the U.S. sanctions could hurt the Turkish industry, but said the damage would not be “too punishing.” “The talk of over $10 billion in potential losses is a gross exaggeration to increase pressure on the Turkish government.”"

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/industry/20 ... th-russia/

[loke]

It’s Not Too Late to Stop Turkey From Realigning With Russia

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/11/it ... gan-trump/

Not sure if I agree with this op-ed....

In other news:

A new Senate bill, introduced Tuesday by Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Robert Menendez, aims to reshape U.S. policy toward a corner of the world that, thanks to big energy discoveries, Russian military adventures, and Turkish ambivalence, has become a potential big-power flash point. The bill is a grab bag of some old U.S. ideas—such as helping speed the development of newly abundant offshore natural gas resources in the region—leavened with a much tougher line toward Turkey, a longtime ally.

Specifically, the bill would end the three-decade U.S. arms embargo on Cyprus meant to make the divided island’s reunification easier, a way to both tweak Turkey and offer an alternative to Russian military hardware, and it specifically warns Turkey not to interfere with energy exploration in its neighborhood, as it has in the past with Cyprus. The bill would also boost military cooperation with Cyprus and Greece; accelerate the exploitation and export of big energy finds in the region; cement the nascent U.S. alignment with Greece, Israel, and Cyprus; and try to force Turkey out of Russia’s embrace—or out of America’s.

Turkey, a key member of NATO since 1952, has in recent years crept closer to Russia, signing huge contracts in the energy sector and deepening defense cooperation. Most recently, Turkey has moved ahead with plans to buy a Russian-made air defense system, a decision that U.S. Vice President Mike Pence last week called “reckless” and which U.S. officials say could jeopardize American defense capabilities and the broader relationship. The new Senate bill includes a measure to ban the transfer to Turkey of advanced U.S. F-35 fighter jets if the country goes ahead with the purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. (On Wednesday, Turkey said it would accelerate the delivery of the controversial weapons.)

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/10/u- ... to-ankara/

[mixelflick]

We should just call it now for what it is..

1.) Turkey won't be getting the F-35 and;
2.) Turkey's days as a member of NATO are numbered

This isn't very surprising, and once NATO's out Turkey will serve as an ideal forward operating base from which to attack Israel. It's coming, just watch...

[marsavian]

USA just definitively made a geopolitical choice, Israel and its close Christian allies Greece and Cyprus, over Turkey. I hope Sultan's posturing and independence was worth it because as the famous song goes ... freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose ...

[elshad]

More generally, rising anti-Americanism is a real problem in Turkey. Whenever I look at Turkey-related Twitter or YouTube comments it's full of things like "bye bye USA bye bye NATO" and full of insane conspiracy theories.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-s-400-deal-with-russia-in-delivery-stage-142547

See highlighted text. Incredible -- does Erdogan really believe that the US is bluffing!?? Or is he just lying to the Turkish electorate??? Who knows... In any case, this does not look good at all.

Just as an example, the 2nd guy on the left in that photo is responsible for writing insane sh*t like this: https://www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/ib ... ll-2042300

[marsavian]

Crazy conspiracy ideas that you would not even dream of thinking up but now prevalent among Erdogan and his team. Sadly it makes the Iranian and North Korean leadership look borderline sane ! Smh

[jakobs]

“I hear, however, that there are some people in Erdogan’s circle who do see the looming train wreck, understand that Turkey will get the worst of it, and are looking for workarounds, such as taking delivery of the S-400 batteries and then mothballing them.”

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... 0-f35.html

[marsavian]

http://www.ekathimerini.com/239631/opin ... -diplomacy

The Greek pov

We are already hearing about a range of scenarios that could form the basis of a compromise. Athens was informed some time ago that Turkey may eventually buy the S-400 missile systems but store them in Azerbaijan. This would allow Erdogan to save face and the US would be able to proceed with the delivery of the F-35s.

It is too soon to draw any conclusions. The Greek government understands the problem and is trying to keep the lines of communication with the palace in Ankara open as bureaucrats there have also been sidelined. In any case, it is certainly very important for Greece and the US to have a solid relationship that does not depend on relations between the US and Turkey.

A top official remembers that when Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met Trump at the White House and started presenting evidence on Turkey’s aggression, the answer was rather disarming: “Erdogan is an OK guy and good for business.”

[spazsinbad]

Russia would be Turkey’s ‘first best choice’ for fighter jets if its F-35 plan flops
19 Apr 2019 Burak Ege Bekdil

"ANKARA, Turkey — If U.S. officials were to expel Turkey from the multinational group that builds the F-35 Lightning II, Turkish defense officials said they likely would pursue Russian fighter jet technology. “We cannot afford to leave the F-35 not substituted,” a senior military officer told Defense news....

...Turkey insists the first S-400 shipments would arrive in July and the first S-400 system would become operational in September. A Turkish presidential source said that potential Turkish-Russian cooperation on fighter technology was “preliminarily discussed” between their respective defense officials during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Moscow on April 8.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavusoglu told broadcaster NTV on Apri 10: “There are F-35[s], but there are also aircraft manufactured in Russia. If we are not able to purchase [the] F-35, Turkey will buy similar aircraft from other countries. And this will continue until we start producing our own fifth-generation fighter jets.” Such a move would make Turkey the only NATO member to simultaneously use the S-400 and Russian fighter.

“This is not a useful dispute for the alliance,” asserted an Ankara-based European Union military attache. “What we observe today could push Turkey further into Russia’s military orbit … and we don’t want that.”...

...Russia’s isn’t the only alternative for the F-35. In 2015, Turkey’s procurement authorities released a request for information for the TF-X, the country’s indigenous fighter jet program. Sweden’s Saab was one of the bidders to supply know-how for the initial design phase of the program, but Ankara selected Britain’s BAE Systems for that contract.

“Saab’s commitment to technology transfer was very generous, but its price was expensive at the time,” a Turkish official recalled. “Saab could now revise its bid and incorporate it into the new [no F-35] situation,” he said. Another option for Turkey is Airbus, a partner in the Eurofighter program based in the Netherlands and France, the official added."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... lan-flops/

[loke]

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will start delivering its S-400 missile defense systems to Turkey in July, the head of Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport said, according to Interfax news agency.

“Everything has been already discussed and agreed,” Alexander Mikheev told Interfax.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turk ... SKCN1S01H5

[zerion]

Erdogan Says F-35 Project Would Collapse Without Turkey

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... out-turkey

[SpudmanWP]

Collapse... from laughing too hard maybe

[loke]

LOL, this was indeed funny -- perhaps next week Erdogan will declare that he simply cannot let the F-35 program collapse and therefore he will sacrifice the S-400 purchase to save the F-35 from collapsing! (I am joking.... I think...)

[marsavian]

He is just not that bright, a delusional tyrant who I predict will throw an almighty tantrum when F-35 is denied him for real just like a baby throwing toys out of a pram. If at the end of that tantrum Turkey is still in NATO is 50/50.

[loke]

Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalın and U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton discussed the Russian S-400 air defense system via telephone Tuesday, according to presidential sources

https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/20 ... -to-turkey

So there is still a possibility that this can be resolved...