The Turkey problem

[mixelflick]

Sounds like Iran more and more...

Turkey's relationship with NATO is going south fast. I agree: Sell them nothing. Will just wind up in the hands of the Russians. Let them buy the Russian junk and find out for themselves. I foresee an SU-35 buy, perhaps even SU-34's with the idea of being able to hit Greece.

I don't think the SU-57 is going to be exported. Still in troubled development phase, will be plenty expensive when its all said and done. Not being bought in large numbers by Russia, so price per copy will be borderline astronomical. And their new NATO adversaries will be flying F-35's, which will completely outclass his Russian contemporary jets..

It would seem politics/ego will be the sword Erdolan falls on..

[loke]

Turkish President President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has invoked the Anzacs' Gallipoli campaign in World War I in responding to the mosque attacks in Christchurch, saying anyone who went to Turkey for anti-Muslim reasons would be returned "in coffins", as their grandfathers were.

The Hurriyet news site reported that Erdogan had referred to the failed invasion of the Gallipoli peninsula by allied forces, including the Australian and New Zealand troops, in World War I and said Turkey would "write history" again if anyone stood against Turks, Muslims and all the oppressed

"They are testing us from 16,500km away, from New Zealand, with the messages they are giving from there. This is not an individual attack, it is organised."
It comes after Erdogan used the footage of the gunman's attack in one of his election campaign rallies to highlight Islamophobia in Western countries.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12214162

Facebook deleted 1.5 million copies of the footage during the first 24 hours, seems Erdogan obtained a copy anyway.

Meanwhile in South America:

As the crisis in Venezuela mounts, tensions between Turkey and the United States appear to be heading towards a standoff over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s support for his embattled Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro.

The United States has come out strongly in support of Juan Guaido, president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, who is challenging Maduro. Turkey’s position on the Venezuelan crisis has helped to drive a wedge further into U.S.-Turkey relations, already strained over Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems and other contentious issues.

https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-venezuela/ ... -sanctions

Bolton Blasts Turkey:

Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton has blasted the S-400 deal as one of several major stumbling blocks in US-Turkish relations.

“We’re concerned about their purchase of the Russian air defence system called the S-400 – that’s a big problem,” Bolton said, speaking to AM 970 radio host John Catsimatidis on Sunday morning.

Asked directly by Catsimatidis whether Turkey was a “friend or foe” to the United States, the top Trump foreign policy adviser cited a host of other problems affecting relations.

“Well you know they’re still a NATO ally; we’re trying to work with them, but they’ve got a very bad relationship with our close friends in Israel. That’s something we need to look out on,” Bolton said, adding that disagreements “with respect to the conflict in Syria” were another issue.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/bo ... th-russia/

All of this taken together, it does not look good for bringing the F-35 to Turkey. It seems the level of trust is not going to increase anytime soon.

[madrat]

Turkey is reflecting the brazen attitudes shared by their Persian Gulf buddies, especially a certain prince of a kingdom. No F-35 for any of them. People don't realize the level of destruction this group has dropped on the American population in many subtle ways. One of the sleaziest moves was for a group of these pricks to create 'education' initiatives like creating textbooks that make children learn anti-american opinions about American History, asinine math principles through 'common core', scrambling core subjects with 'integrated' methodologies, and pushing politics like race into mainstream classrooms. The political guardians of both parties lapped up their special interest money in the name of something called progressiveness. The Chinese liked what they saw and began to lead the parade. These foreign interests are not our friends. They have done nothing except run a counter culture campaign against the West since, well, forever. It started long before the archduke in the Balkans. People used to be more vigilant to foreign meddling until this new 'New World Order' established a status quo of looking away.

[mixelflick]

One of the sleaziest moves was for a group of these pricks to create 'education' initiatives like creating textbooks that make children learn anti-american opinions about American History, asinine math principles through 'common core', scrambling core subjects with 'integrated' methodologies, and pushing politics like race into mainstream classrooms.

You do realize you just described the liberal playbook in US College classrooms?

[falcon.16]

I do not know what is waiting Trump for to cancel deliveries of F-35 to Turkey.

Maybe is a problem of some clausules on the contract and some penalties, because on this stage everybody knows Turkey will get the S-400 in Summer. So, it is not any debate, Trump need cancel this contract and LM need inmediately change location of the parts of the F-35 which was manufacturing Turkey to other country.

It is a very tired situation, and Erdogan it is not a reliable costumer.

This is a question for Nato too; maybe it will be necesary expulse to Turkey.

Some person who show support to Maduro can not stay inside Nato or inside democratic institutions.

[commisar]

I do not know what is waiting Trump for to cancel deliveries of F-35 to Turkey.

Maybe is a problem of some clausules on the contract and some penalties, because on this stage everybody knows Turkey will get the S-400 in Summer. So, it is not any debate, Trump need cancel this contract and LM need inmediately change location of the parts of the F-35 which was manufacturing Turkey to other country.

It is a very tired situation, and Erdogan it is not a reliable costumer.

This is a question for Nato too; maybe it will be necesary expulse to Turkey.

Some person who show support to Maduro can not stay inside Nato or inside democratic institutions.

It'll happen soon enough. Replacing Turkey in the supply chain will take about 18 months.

[fbw]

I do not know what is waiting Trump for to cancel deliveries of F-35 to Turkey.

Maybe is a problem of some clausules on the contract and some penalties, because on this stage everybody knows Turkey will get the S-400 in Summer. So, it is not any debate, Trump need cancel this contract and LM need inmediately change location of the parts of the F-35 which was manufacturing Turkey to other country.

It is a very tired situation, and Erdogan it is not a reliable costumer.

This is a question for Nato too; maybe it will be necesary expulse to Turkey.

Some person who show support to Maduro can not stay inside Nato or inside democratic institutions.

TBH, I don’t think that the US wants to bring this issue to a head by doing anything irrevocable at this point. The report is due to Congress in Nov. By then several things will have happened; Turkey will have received the S-400 (or not), the US will have lined up subcontractors to replace Ayesas (only source for panoramic display), Kale’s share of blisk and other F135 parts, and TAI share of center fuselage. Several of the Turkish sourced parts are JV with US aerospace firms so most likely production will shift to US manufacturer. Elbit won the contract for the upgraded panoramic display in TR3 refresh so that might be a workaround.

Ergodan’s base responds positively to this brinkmanship with the US , but he’s walked back from threats previously. No one can argue Turkey’s been a reliable ally as of late. But, doing something as drastic as kicking them out of NATO, and cutting off all defense ties would have a disastrous effect on Turkey due to close ties with US defense firms, and a negative effect on US aerospace firms both military and commercial who source parts from US-Turkish Joint ventures. That’s not even touching the legal entanglements and possible compromise of US defense technology if we pushed them into the arms of Russia. I think it’s more likely the USG takes a “wait and see approach” while distancing itself as a supplier of weapons to Turkey. But, no, I think the odds of completing Turkish F-35 orders are slim at best and those two Turkish F-35’s never leave Luke.

[blindpilot]

...
TBH, I don’t think that the US wants to bring this issue to a head by doing anything irrevocable at this point. ... if we pushed them into the arms of Russia. I think it’s more likely the USG takes a “wait and see approach” while distancing itself as a supplier of weapons to Turkey. But, no, I think the odds of completing Turkish F-35 orders are slim at best and those two Turkish F-35’s never leave Luke.

I agree with virtually everything you have well said.

I will reiterate however, the historic hatred of Russians runs very deep, and I don't see Turkey being "pushed" there. It would likely trigger civil war with everyone against Erdogan, left, right, center, Islamic, secular ... basically a mass uprising. They really don't trust/like Russia ... a lot! Now China? who knows...

Of course I could be wrong, and it's just ...

MHO,
BP

[marsavian]

and the Turks are still supporting Ukraine over Crimea due to their ethnic Tatars there.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/turke ... ty/1419979

[spazsinbad]

Sale of F-35s to Turkey in Trouble, Dunford Confirms
21 Mar 2019 Richard Sisk

"Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford said Thursday that it will be difficult to proceed with the sale and delivery of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to Turkey given Turkey's insistence on acquiring a Russian system designed to shoot them down. "It's a tough issue," Dunford said, and the U.S. "would have a hard time" justifying the F-35 sale to a nation that has Russia's S-400 advanced anti-air system.

Dunford said he's worked hard to improve relations with NATO-allied Turkey, but the S-400s could be a deal-breaker on the F-35 sale. "We're hopeful to find a way through this, but it's a tough issue," Dunford said....

...Reuters [ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1R20AY ] (see article below now) reported earlier Thursday that the U.S. was eyeing a freeze in preparations to deliver the F-35 to Turkey in light of the country's efforts to acquire the S-400.

"The S-400 is a computer. The F-35 is a computer. You don't hook your computer to your adversary's computer and that's basically what we would be doing," Katie Wheelbarger, acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the news outlet in an interview....

...Dunford said that one of his main concerns was preserving the relationship with Turkey beyond the current dispute over the F-35s and the S-400 systems. "Turkey is an ally and a very important ally, and we have many more areas of convergence than divergence. As we look at five, ten years down the road, I want to make very sure that our Turkish allies are close to us," Dunford said. "And I worked that relationship very hard. And to that point, I think since I've been chairman, I've made 12 visits to Turkey. I'm not sure I've gone anyplace else even close to that many times."..."

Source: https://www.military.com/dodbuzz/2019/0 ... firms.html

[spazsinbad]

Exclusive: U.S. may soon pause preparations for delivering F-35s to Turkey
21 Mar 2019 Idrees Ali, Phil Stewart

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States could soon freeze preparations for delivering F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, officials told Reuters, in what would be the strongest signal yet by Washington that Ankara cannot have both the advanced aircraft and Russia’s S-400 air defense system.

The United States is nearing an inflection point in a years-long standoff with Turkey, a NATO ally, after so far failing to sway President Tayyip Erdogan that buying a Russian air defense system would compromise the security of F-35 aircraft.

“The S-400 is a computer. The F-35 is a computer. You don’t hook your computer to your adversary’s computer and that’s basically what we would be doing,” Katie Wheelbarger, acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told Reuters.

While no decision has been made yet, U.S. officials confirmed that Washington was considering halting steps now underway to ready Turkey to receive the F-35...

...“There (are) decisions that come up constantly about things being delivered in anticipation of them eventually taking custody of the planes,” said Wheelbarger. “So there’s a lot of things in train that can be paused to send signals to them (that we’re serious),” she added, without detailing those steps.

However, another U.S. official said one of the measures the United States was looking at was alternatives to an engine depot in Turkey, without giving more details. The official said any potential alternatives would likely be somewhere in Western Europe. Turkey is home to an F-35 engine overhaul depot in the western city of Eskisehir....

...The strains on ties between Washington and Ankara already extend beyond the F-35 to include strategy in Syria, Iran sanctions and the detention of U.S. consular staff. “This (the F-35 standoff) is really a symptom, not a cause of the problem between the two countries,” Aliriza [Bulent Aliriza, director of the Turkey project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies] said.

Many U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, worry that Turkey is drifting away from NATO and watch improving relations between Ankara and Moscow with concern. The prospect of Russian contractors or officials on Turkish bases that also are home to the F-35 is unfathomable to many U.S. officials....

...A Turkish S-400 purchase could also trigger a fight with the U.S. Congress, which has already blocked all major arms sales to Ankara while the S-400 deal is pending. Lawmakers could renew attempts to introduce legislation that would legally prohibit the Trump administration from allowing Turkey to have the F-35 if it secures the S-400s...."

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1R20AY

[dimitris]

Russia does not need to sell S-400 to "read" the F35's. It just needs political will from Turkey.
They can place only the S-400 radars (or others with same characteristics) at a warehouse, a container, in a forest, anywhere and do the job.

Moreover if they know the flight path of a F35 they can exploit the civil radiowaves (from 80Mhz radio to 800Mhz fullHD) and receive the signals at silent hidden stations in a truck or even a van. Then they will Know that when an F35 is at point A and a civil transmitter is at point B, they will receive a certain kind of signal at point C- the silent receive station.
They will read the F35's signature at, difficult to jam, low bands (HF to VHF) and they will perfect their lock after launch missile algorithms.

They will understand the F35's AESA LPO capabilities, and the Link16, GPS jamming opportunities.
They will perfect the location of bistatic radars.

Stealth planes reflect radiowaves to a few, other than the emitter, directions, they don't eliminate them. So if a Su35 flies over Black Sea at point A and a F35 flies over Turkey then a second Su35 at point B may receive the reflected X-band signal from the first Su. A big envelope of these readings could give the Know-how to fly 2 (or more) Sukhoi's to keep the F35 locked and -via triangulation and RTDS- produce fire solutions.
They will make the full envelope (day, night, clouds, mist etc) of the F35 IR signature. A 5000$ 2k IR camera near an airport can do this.

The acoustic signature envelope also matters. If a set of microphones catches the F135 sound then they will know the direction the sound comes, the speed of the source (dopler) and -approximately- the distance. If you fire a Mach 4 missile with good Kalman filters (with feed from several mics in a vast area) and an IR head (Russians have all of them) do you have good kill probabilities ? (Feel free to answer, i really dont know)

If the Russians can cyberwarfare down an RQ-170, God knows what they can do to ALIS.
Russians can do all the above without selling the S-400. Even if they sell them i dont think they will turn them on in an F35 environment, to protect their secrets. Stealth planes are similar to coding machines. They are usefull as long as the enemy knows you have them but don't know how to crack them. Otherwise the F35 will be nothing more than an A-7 Corsair with gadgets...

[mixelflick]

So if it's that easy to detect, track and get a firing solution on an F-35... why are both Russia and China developing stealth aircraft too?

[hornetfinn]

So if it's that easy to detect, track and get a firing solution on an F-35... why are both Russia and China developing stealth aircraft too?

Exactly. And it's not like Russia and China only have the technologies and systems mentioned by dimitris... And LOL ad using LOAL missiles with bistatic (or multistatic) radars or Su-35s receiving radar signals sent by another Su-35... Such things are so easy that nobody has done anything even remotely close to that yet....

[dimitris]

So if it's that easy to detect, track and get a firing solution on an F-35... why are both Russia and China developing stealth aircraft too?

I didn't said it's easy - the opposite- it is the trillion dollar question. I said that, even without selling the S-400, they would have several good opportunities to see if and what kind of return signals they can get from various sources.
The Su-57 or the J-20 are not stealth the way F35 is. They just tried to reduce RCS from let's say 4m2 to less than 1m2. They have different war doctrines, the loss of a fighter jet/pilot is not unacceptable, like in US doctrines. It is not that they don't have the supercomputers (especially China) to solve the Ufimtsev equations for 2nd gen stealth (curved surfaces) they just dont want to spend that kind of money or compromise other plane characteristics to bring them to the F35 stealth level.