The Turkey problem

[marsavian]

Well it's pretty obvious, either Su-57 or J-20 with their F-35 refund . At least it happened early enough for F-35 to be completely denied to them and yes the USAF can immediately reacquisition them .

[mixelflick]

I sure hope the pilots from Turkey training on the F-35 aren't taught too much, if you know what I mean.

They may not be getting the F-35, but what safeguards can be taken to ensure its strength (and weaknesses) don't make it back to the land of the S-400?

[commisar]

Hard decisions will have to be made ...

Turkey buying Russian S-400s a done deal: Erdogan

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkey- ... an/1411168

Turkey’s president said Wednesday that Ankara has finalized an agreement on purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile defense system.

"We concluded the S-400 issue, signed a deal with the Russians, and will start co-production,” said Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking in a televised interview.

"Later, we may work with S-500s," the next generation system, Erdogan said.

Funny, that the story doesn't even mention the F-35. Nor, what Turkey is going to do when the US refuses to deliver them. Which, is all but inevitable at this point.....

Erdogan will throw a tantrum as usual and scream about buying Russian or Chinese jets. Russia will offer some co-development BS regarding the TFX and will proceed to take millions or billions from Turkey with zero results.

If Turkey is REALLY lucky, they may have KAI help them with TFX and get it into service by 2030.... Or not.

Likely case... They buy some Chinese 5th gens in 5-8 years and then get booted out of NATO when Erdogan declares himself Sultan.

[jakobs]

I sure hope the pilots from Turkey training on the F-35 aren't taught too much, if you know what I mean.

I wouldn't worry about that, they'll be jailed when they get home anyway.

[vilters]

Erdogan can buy whatever he wants. Allah will pay for it.

He is the perfect milk-cow for Russian and Chinese weapons; LOL, as long as they also fill his own pockets. (That is basically all that matters).

[madrat]

Erdogan can buy whatever he wants. Allah will pay for it.

He is the perfect milk-cow for Russian and Chinese weapons; LOL, as long as they also fill his own pockets. (That is basically all that matters).

Erdogan is an ideologist. Money is a means, not a driver.

[spazsinbad]

My takeaway from this article is highlighted otherwise it is LOOONNGGG and I'm not that interested to understand details.

Why Turkey is buying the Russian S-400 air defence system & why it’s making the US mad: A Turkish perspective
08 Mar 2019 HUSH-Kit & Arda Mevlutoglu

"Turkey is buying an air defence system, the formidable S-400, from Russia. The deal has sparked fury from the US government, which is threatening economic sanctions and the withholding of F-35 stealth fighters....

...S-400 is favoured because of its unrivalled performance, being able to eliminate targets as far as 400km. [Sweden?]

However, a close examination of these reasons leads to a different conclusion: the Russian side repeatedly state that the deal involves no transfer of technology or joint production, i.e the systems will be delivered ‘off-the-shelf’. Furthermore, Turkey officially stated that the S-400 system will not be integrated into Turkey’s air defence network, which in turn is a part of NATO air defence early warning system. In other words, S-400 battery will be used ‘standalone’, which will significantly decrease its effectiveness against especially low flying targets. How the interoperability or Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) issues will be resolved is a complete mystery. These inconsistencies suggest that the decision to purchase S-400 was mostly, if not completely a political decision, rather than a technical one…."

Source: https://hushkit.net/2019/03/08/why-turk ... rspective/

[spazsinbad]

Forthcoming S-500 Induction Fuels Turkish Interest
12 Mar 2019 Vladimir Karnozov

"...News of the S-500 approaching its entry-into-service has encouraged Ankara to seek ways of acquiring its technologies and specimens to assist with localization. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan began asking his Russian counterpart for the next-generation SAM back in October 2017, after Ankara and Moscow had settled funding issues on the $2.5 billion Turkish purchase of the production S-400 system. In June 2018, Erdoğan said he had discussed with Putin ways to arrange “joint production” of the S-500.

On March 6, 2019 Erdogan again touched on the theme: "We concluded the S-400 issue, signed a deal with the Russians, and will [soon] start co-production. Later, we may proceed with the S-500." On a separate occasion, he said: “For the future, we have been considering S-500’s joint production and technology [sharing].”

Russo-Turkish talks on the S-400 commenced in 2016. It took negotiators about a year to arrive at a framework agreement. To facilitate the deal, Moscow arranged a credit line on “very favorable conditions.” Ankara says the acquisition program consists of several phases. The first one would see direct purchase of ready-to-use equipment, the second and third would involve localization and joint production.

Meanwhile, Washington continues to apply pressure on Ankara, demanding it abandon the purchase of advanced Russian weaponry. According to Erdoğan, President Donald Trump has personally asked him to give up the S-400. “We replied that this is a done deal. We are not going to abandon our agreements with Russia.” He further said that shipments will commence in July 2019. Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar stressed that Ankara purchasing the S-400 is "not a choice but a necessity." He expects Turkey’s first S-400 unit to come on line in October 2019.

Speaking in the Senate Armed Services Committee, NATO's supreme allied commander, Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, said Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian SAMs would “potentially forfeit many of the other systems,” including the F-35. While lacking interoperability with NATO equipment, the S-400 is “a problem to all of our aircraft, but specifically the F-35.” He fears that Turkey operating both Russian SAMs and U.S. fighters would lead to the S-400 operators obtaining critical information on the F-35’s radar signatures. Ankara has been seeking to acquire up to a hundred F-35s, and is an industrial partner in the program. Turkish pilots are currently undergoing type conversion at Luke AFB in Arizona.

Washington is offering Ankara a $3.5 billion deal on the Patriot SAM, already approved by Congress with a caveat that Turkey reconsiders its S-400 purchase. Pentagon spokesman Charles Summers told reporters that Turkey's decision to acquire advanced weapons from Russia “would mean that they would not have access to the Patriots and the F-35s.” He threated Ankara with “grave consequences in terms of our military relationship.”"

Source: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... h-interest

[durahawk]

Even if the Turks cave to western pressure on the S-400 (looking unlikely), what is stopping them from continuing to acquire the system AFTER receiving deliveries of the first batch of F-35's? There is little reason to take them at their word at this point, IMO. Their preferences are clear.

[Corsair1963]

Even if the Turks cave to western pressure on the S-400 (looking unlikely), what is stopping them from continuing to acquire the system AFTER receiving deliveries of the first batch of F-35's? There is little reason to take them at their word at this point, IMO. Their preferences are clear.

Honestly, Turkey is in a really poor position today, tomorrow, and even in the foreseeable future. Which, is why many have been "annoyed" but not seriously threaten by their recent moves.

This is nothing but a bluff on the part of Erdoğan. Maybe it time to finally call it.....

[mor10]

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - It is not possible for Turkey to back out of a deal with Russia to buy S-400 missile defense systems, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/erdogan-says-turkey-cant-quit-s-400-missile-deal-with-russia/ar-BBUMyV6?ocid=spartanntp

[durahawk]

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - It is not possible for Turkey to back out of a deal with Russia to buy S-400 missile defense systems, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/erdogan-says-turkey-cant-quit-s-400-missile-deal-with-russia/ar-BBUMyV6?ocid=spartanntp

I think it's pretty telling that Russia is willing to sell an advanced SAM system to a NATO member who shot down a Russian jet as recently as 2015. This is clearly a play to divide NATO, and Russia is betting on the sale doing just that, and therefore worth the exploitation risk.

Erdogan knows this, but doesn't seem to care. (Even more telling)

That said, I doubt Russia is planning on delivering a full up system in either case.

[marsavian]

Turkey would be a great geopolitical strategic partner for
Russia to acquire because of their Bosphorus control of the Black Sea. Turkey originally joined NATO as a bulwark against Russian regional pressure, new found Russian friendship maybe the catalyst to ultimately leave it. Geopolitical alliances shift over time and Turkey just may have more in common with Russia and Iran now than it does with its traditional Western allies.

[blindpilot]

Turkey would be a great geopolitical strategic partner for
Russia to acquire because of their Bosphorus control of the Black Sea. Turkey originally joined NATO as a bulwark against Russian regional pressure, new found Russian friendship maybe the catalyst to ultimately leave it. Geopolitical alliances shift over time and Turkey just may have more in common with Russia and Iran now than it does with its traditional Western allies.

Turkey's tensions with Russia are not rooted in "bulwark against" cold war Soviets. Their centuries long (since 1500's) conflicts makes it highly unlikely that Turkey under any regime, Sultanate or Secular or any government, will be a "new found friendship with Russia" ... ever.

Erdogan is playing with fire domestically here. The Turks will never trust Russia. As to Bosphorus, that agreement is one that Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania et al. will respect under only the strictest adherence. Turkey will not break the Montruex Convention. To do so would get very ugly and likely lead to war with Greece and NATO.

As to the Persians... another post sometime. Balancing on a razor blade is a dance many usually try to avoid. We'll see what happens.

FWIW MHO,
BP

[vilters]

Erdolan states in his latest press release that all Western countries are racists provoking attacks against the Islam like in NZ.

Quote; "The anti Islam is spreading like cancer". Unquote.

I would not sell him my old and rusty third hand spare car.