The Turkey problem

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spazsinbad

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Unread post20 Feb 2019, 05:29

I don't understand how this development was not reported earlier? Known before DELIVERY to Turkey NOT DUE until then?
Trump signs bill blocking transfer of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey
19 Feb 2019 Ilhan Tanir

"U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a spending bill that blocks the transfer of the country's F-35 new generation fighter jets to Turkey. According to spending bill signed by Trump on Friday [15 Feb 2019] [ https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hjre ... s31enr.pdf ], delivery of the jets to Turkey will be blocked until the U.S. Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense submit an update to the report regarding the purchase of Turkey of the S–400 missile defense system from the Russian Federation....
https://ahvalnews.com/sites/default/fil ... 0_am_0.png

...The Congress asks U.S. secretaries to deliver the report by November 1, 2019...."

Source: https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-usa/trump- ... ets-turkey
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Corsair1963

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Unread post20 Feb 2019, 05:48

Sounds like Trump finally called Erdoğan bluff.... :|
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spazsinbad

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Unread post20 Feb 2019, 07:35

Earlier on 15th was this repeated warning...
Pence: ‘We will not stand idly by’ as Turkey purchases S-400
16 Feb 2019 Tara Copp

"MUNICH — Vice President Mike Pence repeated warnings to Turkey not to proceed with the purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defense system, a day after Turkey dismissed the first of two deadlines to cease with the planned sale. Pence, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, told attendees “we will not stand idly by while NATO allies purchase weapons from our adversaries. We cannot ensure the defense of the West if our allies grow dependent on the East."

The U.S. had set a Feb. 15 deadline for Turkey to respond and signal their intentions to cease with the sale, a U.S. official told Military Times....

...The S-400 sale would also impact Turkey’s role in the international development of the fifth generation Joint Strike Fighter. Earlier this year, the Pentagon reported to Congress on the impact to the F-35 program if it ditches Turkey as a partner. Turkey sources some of the parts for the program and that action could result in delays to the program if Turkey is no longer a contributor.

Congress still has to decide what action to take.…"

Source: https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your ... ses-s-400/
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marsavian

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Unread post20 Feb 2019, 15:20

After their deal is refunded these ex-Turkish F-35s can then be transferred to the USAF to ease the ageing F-15C caused fighter gap ;). Giving F-35 to Turkey would be like when F-14 were given to Iran, a major problem for decades to come. With a bit of luck the stroppy Sultan will throw a tantrum and leave NATO too ;).
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lbk000

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Unread post20 Feb 2019, 23:09

Now get those construction facilities out of there too.
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noth

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Unread post21 Feb 2019, 18:28

And attribute the engine overhaul center contract to the UK for example. That'll really rattle them.
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Unread post22 Feb 2019, 14:52

Isn't this as big an offense/defense decision for Turkey, as much as it is a political one?

Getting the S-400 means beefing up its defensive capabilities. If you believe the brochures, dramatically so. But it doesn't buy them any offense. Forgoing the S-400 and going with the F-35 (and now they're talking B's too) would give them a more offensive capability (while it could also be used to perform DCA).

If I'm a Turkish military man, that seems like an easy decision.

Why are they so hell bent on S-400's?
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steve2267

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Unread post22 Feb 2019, 22:14

mixelflick wrote:Isn't this as big an offense/defense decision for Turkey, as much as it is a political one?

Getting the S-400 means beefing up its defensive capabilities. If you believe the brochures, dramatically so. But it doesn't buy them any offense. Forgoing the S-400 and going with the F-35 (and now they're talking B's too) would give them a more offensive capability (while it could also be used to perform DCA).

If I'm a Turkish military man, that seems like an easy decision.

Why are they so hell bent on S-400's?


That is the question. Why? And it immediately raises the question: Can the Turks be trusted? Seriously. And therein lies the dilemma.

You forgot to mention that the US has offered Turkey the Patriot missile system. So... why do they really need the S-400?
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, dollop of F-117, gob of F-22, dash of F/A-18, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well + bake. Whaddya get? F-35.
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Unread post23 Feb 2019, 01:27

mixelflick wrote:Why are they so hell bent on S-400's?

steve2267 wrote:So... why do they really need the S-400?


Maybe the S-400 will be operated by the most Erdogan-loyal troops? Being stand-alone from the rest of the air-defense it can be used to shoot down Turkish F-16's and helicopters in case of another coup.

Just speculating here, but given how Erdogan is acting I find it totally possible.
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Unread post23 Feb 2019, 02:14

Not quite. Think offensive projection. We don't need someone playing tower defense in that neck of the woods.
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spazsinbad

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Unread post23 Feb 2019, 03:11

I thought this article had been posted here before - info about SOLE decision by Ergodan ALONE to purchase the S-400.
‘Shaking hands with the Russians’: Erdogan sole decision-maker on S-400 deal
30 Jul 2018 Burak Ege Bekdil

"ANKARA, Turkey — With his nearly limitless powers legislated after an election victory on June 24, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the sole authority to decide whether Turkey should actually acquire the Russian-made S-400 air defense system, scrap that deal and go for a NATO system, or opt for both, officials and analysts said.

“This is not a conventional bureaucratic decision based on technological superiority and/or price,” a presidential aide said. “There have been a multitude of political deliberations since Turkey came to the point of shaking hands with the Russians....

...Turkey’s top defense procurement office confirmed in late December that Ankara and Moscow had finalized a contract for the acquisition and deployment of the Russian S-400 long-range air and anti-missile defense system on Turkish soil. If materialized, this will be the first time a NATO member state would be deploying the S-400.

The contract involves the acquisition of one S-400 system with an option to purchase a second system. Turkish officials have said the delivery of the S-400 was scheduled for the first quarter of 2020.

“The [S-400] contract has been signed, an advance payment has been made and a financing deal has been penned,” said the procurement office, then named the Undersecretariat for Defence Industries, or SSM. “The contract includes a joint development commitment and cooperation for technological know-how.”...

...SSM previously reported to the defense minister, but it now reports to Erdogan after presidential decrees reshuffled most of Turkish bureaucracy and several key offices came under direct control of the president. The office is now reflagged “Presidency of the Republic of Turkey Undersecretariat for Defence Industries” and operates as a presidential office. “Under the new presidential system, only Erdogan could decide that the S-400 deal should be reviewed, put off or scrapped,” according to a London-based Turkey specialist. “So far there has not been any sign he should rethink his earlier decision.”...

...A procurement official said the S-400 acquisition would be a presidential decision involving almost no bureaucratic input. “It remains a political issue rather than a procurement issue. President Erdogan does not understand why Turkey’s NATO allies should be worried over the deployment of a non-NATO, defensive, not-offensive, system,” he said. “Unless … of course Turkey’s NATO allies think of attacking Turkey one day.”

Turkish defense procurement bureaucracy says the $2.5 billion S-400 system would be operated by Turkish personnel and supported by a locally developed identification friend or foe, or IFF, system. Turkey wants to make the S-400 a stand-alone system it can operate with its own source codes, including the IFF. Turkey will have to operate the S-400 on a stand-alone basis because it is not interoperable with NATO and U.S. assets deployed on Turkish territory.

Erdogan has repeatedly said Turkey was also interested in S-400 know-how as well as acquiring the Russian-made S-500 system, an advanced version now under development....

...NATO officials have warned of “necessary consequences” for Turkey should the alliance member purchase the Russian air defense system."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/smr/space-m ... -400-deal/
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mixelflick

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Unread post23 Feb 2019, 12:38

steve2267 wrote:
mixelflick wrote:Isn't this as big an offense/defense decision for Turkey, as much as it is a political one?

Getting the S-400 means beefing up its defensive capabilities. If you believe the brochures, dramatically so. But it doesn't buy them any offense. Forgoing the S-400 and going with the F-35 (and now they're talking B's too) would give them a more offensive capability (while it could also be used to perform DCA).

If I'm a Turkish military man, that seems like an easy decision.

Why are they so hell bent on S-400's?


That is the question. Why? And it immediately raises the question: Can the Turks be trusted? Seriously. And therein lies the dilemma.

You forgot to mention that the US has offered Turkey the Patriot missile system. So... why do they really need the S-400?


Here's a thought...

The Patriot doesn't have near the umbrella range the S-400 does. Maybe they're looking to blanket the middle east and intimidate countries like Israel?
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vilters

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Unread post23 Feb 2019, 14:58

Ach, Erdoclown is so scared of a second "coup", he"ll buy ANYTHING (with taxpayers money) especially from Ruskyclown, just to piss off Israel.
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Unread post23 Feb 2019, 18:25

I think it's pretty clear that Erdogan sees the S-400 more valuable than the F-35 at this point. When you throw half of your fighter pilots in jail, and remain suspicious of the other half, this is a natural result.

The S-400 can be brought under centralized control of trusted agents, it's a classic self preservation move.
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vilters

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Unread post23 Feb 2019, 20:49

A Fighter pilot is able to think.

And that is not authorised under Erdoclown.
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