The Turkey problem

Turkey refuses to cancel S-400 order, risking F-35 delivery again
10 Jan 2019 Garrett Reim

"Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said his country would consider buying Raytheon-made Patriot missiles from the US government, but would not cancel its order of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia as a condition of the deal....

...However, in a recent interview with Turkish broadcaster NTV Cavusoglu says that cancelling the S-400 order is off the table. “The S-400 agreement is already a finished deal,” he says. “We can deal with the United States for the Patriot, but if it's about the S-400, no.”

Turkey is a partner in the development and manufacturing of the F-35. In coordination with Northrop Grumman, the main fuselage manufacturer for the F-35, Turkish Aerospace Industries manufactures and assembles centre fuselages, produces composite skins and weapon bay doors, and air inlet ducts. In total, 10 different Turkish firms make parts for every F-35.

In a letter sent to the House Armed Services Committee Chairman in July, former Secretary of Defense James Mattis said that removing Turkey’s parts manufacturers from the aircraft supply chain could delay delivery of 50-75 stealth fighters for up to 18-24 months."

Source: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -d-454939/

That's unlikely to happen. What is also unlikely to happen is that they get Patriot while also getting the S-400. I think this was planned as a counter offer with the ball now in Turkey's court. Hopefully better senses in Turkey should prevail and they come to the realization that they being part of NATO will hardly have a capable and usable air-defense system if they are called upon to defend NATO against its primary military adversary who just happens to be the designer of their system.This was largely seen as a political play by Erdogan following Putin planting himself in Syria and after the downing of his fighter and the shooting of his ambassador in Turkey.

It would be quite foolish for us to be having a debate to reevaluate turkey's presence in our high end defense program because of their close proximity to Russia under Erdogan, and because of them acquiring the S-400, and then to turn around and sweeten the deal by adding yet another sophisticated military system on top of that. This was quite likely an alternative floated by the Pentagon/DOS to pull Turkey away from the Russian orbit. Let's see if this works. But Putin has a good pulse of Middle East nations and can shake them down by using his Military in the region so it would be interesting to see what price in Syria Turkey perceives it would have to pay should it cancel the S-400 purchase at the 11th hour.

Perhaps adding THAAD, to the PAC 2 GEM-T, and PAC 3 MSE, might be the ticket, to nix the S-400 deal.

Turkey is still threatening to go after the Kurds even before the US has left. Seems a slow motion exit from NATO to me with F-35 eventually denied. Probably for the best as they seem intent on becoming Iran Mk.2.

Perhaps sell the Kurds some advanced SAMs...

Walk away from Turkey already. They won't harmonize with European countries any more so than a Tiger would trade his stripes for spots.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... 9510304768

Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46859164

It's pointless quoting Trump on the Kurds. He can change his position on a daily basis. There are even examples of him switching within a verbal paragraph. DACA is one that comes to mind, guns is another.

Why Turkish F-35s are threat to US and NATO [BEST READ IT ALL AT SOURCE]
03 Feb 2019 Duncan Kellogg

"...[Turkeys] drive toward acquiring a fleet of F-35s represents a serious threat to American national security and technological superiority. Fortunately, this threat has not been ignored by American policymakers, though more can be done to secure American aerial supremacy.

Two main factors combine to make the sale of F-35s to Turkey a credible threat to American national security. First, on the immediate and kinetic front, Ankara’s continued efforts to acquire and deploy Russian-made integrated surface-to-air missile systems could give Russian engineers and radar systems operators key insight into the radar cross section and signals signature of the F-35. Second, on a broader and more strategically oriented scale, further supporting Turkey’s military advancement could backfire should the country slip further toward authoritarianism....

...Unfortunately, Congressional concern over Turkish F-35 acquisition might come too late to have a strong impact on Russian examination of the aircraft. Indeed, as President Erdogan continues to develop a stronger relationship with Moscow, pilots of the Turkish Air Force are training to fly American-made F-35s out of Arizona’s Luke Air Force Base. Moreover, the Turkish Air Force has already received its first F-35 and, though the plane remains in the United States, as Sebastien Roblin wrote in early September, it cannot be legally confiscated by the U.S. government. Should this specific aircraft successfully make its way to Turkey, it would likely be exposed to the prying sensors of the S-400....

…Conclusion
In light of Turkey’s increased relationship with Russia, commitment to purchasing Russian weapon systems, and rapid devolution into a modern autocracy, Washington’s best interest lies in denying the sale of further F-35 airframes to Turkey. The F-35 is critical to the future of American and NATO air superiority. It cannot be used as just another political chip on the global chessboard. Should it be sold to Turkey without Ankara’s cancellation of the S-400 deal, the F-35 could be compromised before it even takes flight as America’s primary strike fighter."

Source: https://navalinstitute.com.au/why-turki ... -and-nato/

It's not just Russian exposure, how more confidently belligerent would Turkey get against Israel or Greece if it had F-35s ? Trying to stop supposedly allied F-35s would be a physical nightmare of your own political making. It will probably boil down to whether Trump feels Turkey is still needed as a supposed bulwark against Iran and he probably feels it is but I really doubt Turkey's ultimate allegiances under Sultan Erdogan and would it flip to siding with Iran in some Muslim alliance in the future ? Bite the bullet and jettison Turkey from the West now before they do it themselves in a much stronger position.

We lost the responsible parties in the Turkish military after the failed coup attempt. The F-35 doesn't need to be there under that tyrant, Erdogan. He openly speaks anti-Semitic and is homicidal towards non-Turk minorities not like a Pol Pot. The guy is absolute desperate to hold power and has alignment not just with Russia, but China. No F-35 for Turkey.

Conclusion

In light of Turkey’s increased relationship with Russia, commitment to purchasing Russian weapon systems, and rapid devolution into a modern autocracy, Washington’s best interest lies in denying the sale of further F-35 airframes to Turkey. The F-35 is critical to the future of American and NATO air superiority. It cannot be used as just another political chip on the global chessboard. Should it be sold to Turkey without Ankara’s cancellation of the S-400 deal, the F-35 could be compromised before it even takes flight as America’s primary strike fighter.

^THIS

I'm in favor of withholding the F_35 from Turkey.

What's the fascination with the S-400 anyway? It looks good in brochures/youtube videos, but honestly - does anyone think it's going to perform that good in the real world? What nation surrounding Turkey is going to launch massive airstrikes against it? You could argue the Jews/Israel, but they'd defeat the S-400 with 40 year old F-15/16's, jammers and drones. It'd just take a little longer.

This has to be about something more than buying a super duper SAM system...

Also have concern with Turkey getting in bed with Russia and China in support for Maduro in Venezuela.

I'm in favor of withholding the F_35 from Turkey.

What's the fascination with the S-400 anyway? It looks good in brochures/youtube videos, but honestly - does anyone think it's going to perform that good in the real world? What nation surrounding Turkey is going to launch massive airstrikes against it? You could argue the Jews/Israel, but they'd defeat the S-400 with 40 year old F-15/16's, jammers and drones. It'd just take a little longer.

This has to be about something more than buying a super duper SAM system...

My guess is it's in case Israel has a dummy spit. Its use of US weapons would be limited in that case.

From e-mail - perhaps soon a better English article will be available: [Turkish F-35Bs on Turkish LHDs - oh the horror]

"Description of the Turkish Navy TCG Thrace 14 Feb 2019
Naval Forces Command, a multi-purpose Amphibious Assault Ship (LHD) project describing an introductory article. In the statement made by the Turkish Naval Forces, ’The biggest ship to be owned by the Turkish Navy until now, the construction of the first ship of the LHD Class, ANADOLU, was started on 30 April 2016 at Sedef Shipyard. It is planned that ANADOLU will be put into service in the Turkish Navy in 2020. The construction of the second LHD TRAKYA [Thrace] will start in the near future. Inşa Thus, officially, the first time TCG TRAKYA was to be built was mentioned in such a precise manner. Source: DefenseSanayiST.com