The Turkey problem

Turkey refuses to cancel S-400 order, risking F-35 delivery again
10 Jan 2019 Garrett Reim

"Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said his country would consider buying Raytheon-made Patriot missiles from the US government, but would not cancel its order of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia as a condition of the deal....

...However, in a recent interview with Turkish broadcaster NTV Cavusoglu says that cancelling the S-400 order is off the table. “The S-400 agreement is already a finished deal,” he says. “We can deal with the United States for the Patriot, but if it's about the S-400, no.”

Turkey is a partner in the development and manufacturing of the F-35. In coordination with Northrop Grumman, the main fuselage manufacturer for the F-35, Turkish Aerospace Industries manufactures and assembles centre fuselages, produces composite skins and weapon bay doors, and air inlet ducts. In total, 10 different Turkish firms make parts for every F-35.

In a letter sent to the House Armed Services Committee Chairman in July, former Secretary of Defense James Mattis said that removing Turkey’s parts manufacturers from the aircraft supply chain could delay delivery of 50-75 stealth fighters for up to 18-24 months."

Source: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -d-454939/

That's unlikely to happen. What is also unlikely to happen is that they get Patriot while also getting the S-400. I think this was planned as a counter offer with the ball now in Turkey's court. Hopefully better senses in Turkey should prevail and they come to the realization that they being part of NATO will hardly have a capable and usable air-defense system if they are called upon to defend NATO against its primary military adversary who just happens to be the designer of their system.This was largely seen as a political play by Erdogan following Putin planting himself in Syria and after the downing of his fighter and the shooting of his ambassador in Turkey.

It would be quite foolish for us to be having a debate to reevaluate turkey's presence in our high end defense program because of their close proximity to Russia under Erdogan, and because of them acquiring the S-400, and then to turn around and sweeten the deal by adding yet another sophisticated military system on top of that. This was quite likely an alternative floated by the Pentagon/DOS to pull Turkey away from the Russian orbit. Let's see if this works. But Putin has a good pulse of Middle East nations and can shake them down by using his Military in the region so it would be interesting to see what price in Syria Turkey perceives it would have to pay should it cancel the S-400 purchase at the 11th hour.

Perhaps adding THAAD, to the PAC 2 GEM-T, and PAC 3 MSE, might be the ticket, to nix the S-400 deal.

Turkey is still threatening to go after the Kurds even before the US has left. Seems a slow motion exit from NATO to me with F-35 eventually denied. Probably for the best as they seem intent on becoming Iran Mk.2.

Perhaps sell the Kurds some advanced SAMs...

Walk away from Turkey already. They won't harmonize with European countries any more so than a Tiger would trade his stripes for spots.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... 9510304768

Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46859164

It's pointless quoting Trump on the Kurds. He can change his position on a daily basis. There are even examples of him switching within a verbal paragraph. DACA is one that comes to mind, guns is another.