The Turkey problem

blindpilot · by **blindpilot** » 31 May 2018, 17:24

mixelflick wrote:...
The decade long qualitative edge they maintain will be erased - instantly.

They will not stand for it..

It's a little more complex than that.

First, when Iran ended up with the F-14 (which btw I dragged over there), it was a problem for us that a hostile regime had the tech. That's true. But the effectiveness of the fleet was hampered by killing the support (maintenance etc.) chain. This despite some creative back channel smuggling and Iran/Contra et al. They have/had F-14 'minus' versions, and had to use them very carefully, even in the Iraq war. With a complex aircraft like the F-35 this is even more of a problem.

Second, the advantages of the F-35 are more fragile than flying A-37's out of S. Vietnam. The manufacturing tolerances, materials, supplies, stealth testing, etc. cannot be "stolen." The infrastructure and environment have to be created. Ask the Japanese, that's easier said than done, and they (the Japanese) could do it. The Turks/Russians, if managed, would struggle to even keep the stealth repair/maintenance up or the software environment. Without these the F-35 ends up being a good F-16V/F-18E in quick order.

Third, those things said, Turkey is two communities tearing itself apart. The Ataturk community is quite talented with world class capabilities, but will they be available for the Islamic Sultanate to use? Turkey has a problem today because they don't have near enough fighter pilots available. All of them are in prison. This reality could ground the entire Turkish Air Force if things turn sour. Islamic fanatics make lousy pilots. "Allah Akbar!" doesn't fly fighter jets. I know. I saw Iranian/Arabian students crashing T-38's that "Allah was flying." But if they let pilots out of prison, a whole new sticky wicket of coup paranoia emerges again.

Things are much messier than qualitative edges" instantly being anything. Is Israel watching closely? No doubt, but let's not overstate what happens instantly.

MHO,
BP

sferrin · by **sferrin** » 31 May 2018, 18:36

Turkey using the jet in ways we wouldn't want is but a microscopic part of the issue. The MUCH larger issue is all of it's technology and specifics flowing directly to Russia and China, helping them both defend against US stealth and improving their own stealth.

loke · by **loke** » 01 Jun 2018, 08:28

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington think tank, has issued a new report on Western nationals' long months of imprisonment in Turkish jails entitled 'Erdoğan's Hostage Diplomacy. Western Nationals in Turkish Prisons."
Dr. Aykan Erdemir, a senior fellow at the FDD authored the report with the former United States Ambassador to Turkey, Eric Edelman, a senior adviser at the same think tank.

The report lists 40 individuals affected by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's "hostage diplomacy," a term used to describe the arrest of foreign nationals in Turkey, allegedly to extract concessions from their home countries.

40 hostages!? I did not know it was that many.

The paper concludes that "Ultimately, only a strong, coordinated, and unwavering response can deter the Turkish president from further using Western nationals as pawns to advance his political agenda." Sanctioning Turkey, a very popular topic in Washington recently, is one of the paper's "must-do" policy tools when dealing with Erdogan.

Both chambers of Congress have prepared similar bills to target Turkey through sanctions and other means in recent weeks. The sale of weapons to Turkey is also expected to be halted fully until the U.S. administration's interagency groups prepare and deliver a report within 60 days of the bill being passed, focusing on the problems that the both countries have been grappling with.

https://ahvalnews.com/us-turkey/do-not- ... think-tank

I could not agree more. This Turkisk behavior is completely unacceptable. EU and NATO should both send a very clear, strong, and coordinated message to Turkey that this behavior must change and all hostages must be released. Not that I think it will happen, in particular not with the current US president...

The last sentence in bold above is interesting -- is this really the case now?

blindpilot · by **blindpilot** » 01 Jun 2018, 16:04

sferrin wrote:Turkey using the jet in ways we wouldn't want is but a microscopic part of the issue. The MUCH larger issue is all of it's technology and specifics flowing directly to Russia and China, helping them both defend against US stealth and improving their own stealth.

Two points there.
First as to tech going to Russia/China to improve their stealth. The tech is different than before. The Russians/Chinese have already spied/stolen the theory/product info. They pretty much know what we've done. The problem is the production, material science behind the doing is not something easily managed. That's at the "doing it" level. Knowing the angles or elements in the component doesn't make them at the tolerances needed. That's why I say the Japanese could do it, having more info than the Russian/Chinese, and they have stepped back, saying this is too high a mountain for us to climb. This is mostly not the tech of old, that we are used to having stolen. Look at the Chinese struggling to make a jet engine. They have the info. They just can't do it. Stealth is hard.
Secondly, to gaining advantages in their counter stealth systems. I agree there is some risk of setback in this. They might find what RF frequency at what angles are optimum for counter tech. But they already know the general parameters, and getting the exact data is really only a marginal step forward. The hard science is what it is, and works against what can be used. But I'd rather they not have a sample to fine tune such things. I agree with you here, but it's not an instantaneous negating of the advantages. Even more so with most of the functions being software driven. There is no "radio" to examine, beyond what already is known from electronic snooping, and the "radio" can be changed whimsically in software.

Not good for them to have a sample? Yes that's true. But an instantaneous collapse of effectiveness. No that is not true.

loke wrote:
...
The report lists 40 individuals affected by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's "hostage diplomacy," a term used to describe the arrest of foreign nationals in Turkey, allegedly to extract concessions from their home countries.

40 hostages!? I did not know it was that many.
...

Seriously, this is on the level of a massive purge. When my friends took their families and left months ago, they were genuinely afraid for their safety, and they were apolitical, and no threat to the "regime," at all. They "fled." They didn't simply leave. We need to stop the F-35(and use other sanctions) for that reason, and not the ones above.

MHO
BP

KamenRiderBlade · by **KamenRiderBlade** » 02 Jun 2018, 16:35

Either way, the sale of F-35's to Turkey needs to be halted until the Democratic Government comes back into power.

As long as their is a Islamic Authoritarian regime, all sales should be frozen until the Democratic Government returns.

weasel1962 · by **weasel1962** » 02 Jun 2018, 22:19

Regardless of whether the next government is democratically elected, the political reality in Turkey is its going to be islamist. Just a question of degree. The likelihood for that part of the world is the more populist, the more Islamist.

Turkey as a program partner has substantial access to the F-35 program. If sales are halted and Turkey chooses to go another route, it should not be surprising that they monetise what they know i.e. sell F-35 knowledge and tech to the highest bidder(s). That includes production plans and data. Hacking may already have given some countries a lot of information but that's nothing compared to what a program partner can provide.

Considering that wider ramifications and benefits that Turkey provides particularly as a continuing bulwark against wider Russian influence in the region + 70 years of carefully cultivated efforts to move Turkey west-wards, I'm not sure if that's worth risking for the F-35 delivery stoppage.

weasel1962 · by **weasel1962** » 05 Jun 2018, 02:50

Couldn't find this on hurriyet but article citing hurriyet claiming the invite for the delivery ceremony has been received from LM.

https://www.dailysabah.com/defense/2018 ... 5-delivery

Corsair1963 · by **Corsair1963** » 05 Jun 2018, 03:20

Turkey to take delivery of first F-35 on Jun. 21

https://youtu.be/YDq7Ewkf6R4

Corsair1963 · by **Corsair1963** » 05 Jun 2018, 04:48

WASHINGTON — U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters will withdraw from the key Syrian town of Manbij under a deal reached with the Trump administration, Turkish officials said Monday, potentially easing a serious rift between the U.S. and Turkey.

If successful, a deal to resolve the future of Manbij, a strategic town in north Syria, could avert a tense standoff in northern Syria between Kurdish-led militias and Turkish-backed Syrian fighters. The spat with Turkey, which considers the Kurdish fighters to be terrorists who threaten Turkish sovereignty, has become a major sore point between NATO allies and a distraction for the U.S.-led coalition seeking to defeat the Islamic State group in Syria.

The agreement to resolve the future of Manbij came in a meeting in Washington between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and visiting Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. In a joint statement after the meeting, the U.S. and Turkey said the diplomats had “endorsed a roadmap” that aims to “ensure the security and stability in Manbij,” but offered no details.

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoin ... witter.com

loke · by **loke** » 05 Jun 2018, 08:47

I hope this time the roadmap is followed. Turkey has long been offering every kind of support to her ally to fight against Daesh together.

Not entirely true, this was written in 2014:

Mr. Erdogan’s behavior is hardly worthy of a NATO ally. He was so eager to oust Mr. Assad that he enabled ISIS and other militants by allowing fighters, weapons and revenues to flow through Turkey. If Mr. Erdogan refuses to defend Kobani and seriously join the fight against the Islamic State, he will further enable a savage terrorist group and ensure a poisonous long-term instability on his border.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/09/opin ... kurds.html

spazsinbad · by **spazsinbad** » 06 Jun 2018, 03:27

State Dept. Official: Turkey’s Interest in Russian Air Defense System Could Hurt Projects Like F-35
05 Jun 2018 John Grady

"Several U.S. military-industrial projects in cooperation Turkey are in question – including the production of the F-35 – if Ankara goes through with the acquisition of a Russian S-4000 air defense system, a senior State Department official said on Tuesday. The potential consequences of the Turkish decision will have a “ripple effect” on other joint production projects, A. Wess Mitchell, assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasian affairs, said at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C....

...NATO needs to “keep Turkey pointed to the West for its future politically and strategically.”

He ticked off the reasons why Ankara remains “a critical partner” in NATO that includes the effort to defeat the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, continuing counter-terrorism work throughout the Middle East with the alliance and hosting the air base at Incirlik, key for U.S. military operations in the region and a defense against Russian air intrusions....

…[then lots of stuff best read at source] He expects at the alliance’s summit in Brussels next month that an agreement will be reached to “turn NATO’s attention to a southern vector” to address those challenges and the Kremlin’s stepped-up disinformation and political meddling campaigns."

Source: https://news.usni.org/2018/06/05/state- ... -like-f-35

loke · by **loke** » 06 Jun 2018, 07:52

I hope Turkey can be saved -- that would be a win-win, both for Turkey and for NATO/EU.

markithere · by **markithere** » 06 Jun 2018, 15:21

If Turkey holds another NATO country men hostage to extract something from that NATO country they are in active violation of Article 1, 2, 4, and 7.

durahawk · by **durahawk** » 06 Jun 2018, 16:05

Corsair1963 wrote:Turkey to take delivery of first F-35 on Jun. 21

https://youtu.be/YDq7Ewkf6R4

Like watching a train wreck in slow motion.

madrat · by **madrat** » 07 Jun 2018, 02:05

Face it, if the coup happened when F-35 was there Erdogan's escort goes down about the same instant his presidential place does. Does anyone really think Erdogan won't use the F-35 as insurance against F-16 operators getting out of line?