The Turkey problem

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XanderCrews

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Unread post23 Jun 2017, 15:23

durahawk wrote:
blindpilot wrote:I actually think the F-35 might temper Turkey some, since they may have a nagging wonder/doubt as to if the US has a secret cut-off switch in ALIS.


Wishful thinking, I am afraid. The reality is that they are using their American built F-16's now to bomb the same Kurds we are supporting in our fight against ISIS. I think if you expect them to utilize the F-35 to support soley NATO/Western/American interests you will be greatly disappointed.

Through the coup and subsequent crackdown, it is quite evident that Turkey is careening towards a dictatorship with Erdoğan at the helm. Last month his cronies even had the audacity to beat peaceful protesters on American soil and then demanded an apology from the US Goverment that our police stopped them during the act. So their Government that makes a mockery of laws and democratic values, yet we are trusting them with our most sensitive military technology?

We need only look to the Iranian Tomcats still flying around for outcomes of exporting high performance equipment to unstable governments. Turkey's membership in NATO should not blind us from this reality.



Not to be cynical, but you think we only sell to nations that hold democracy as the highest virtue? We sell to dictatorships routinely. Betrayal is actually relatively rare. I love Israel but they've had no problem selling secrets to China.

So how do we reconcile these contradictions? And who would have thought our no holds barred withdrawal from the middle East could have resulted in a power vacuum? Who saw that coming? (Everyone)
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durahawk

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Unread post23 Jun 2017, 19:34

mtrman wrote:@durehawk

I really don't like to deal with politics. But when somebody has wrong information about my country, or when he/she tries to misinform the others, then...
Yes, Turkey seems to be changed in some terms, but, unfortunately, this is mostly due to the fact that, our region is changing/being devastated horribly... How can you talk about Turkey, without talking about Iraq, Syria, Russia,... For the last 15 years, we are the indirect victim of all these horrible events in our region. And what about our Allies(!). They don't help us even struggling the coup attempters...

And what about Kurds? First of all, US is allying with Marxist/Leninist Terrorist YPG/PKK, not the Kurds. If you want to talk about Kurds, then go to the Northern Iraq, or SE Turkey. But don't use the word Kurds to refer to this terrorist YPG/PKK simply because they are composed of Kurds.

Some links about YPG/PKK:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20971100
http://aa.com.tr/uploads/TempUserFiles/ ... xtensi.pdf
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/me ... connection

Unfortunately, Turkey is not very good at telling and spreading the truths about herself. But if you really want to learn about what is happening in this region, then you can start by not believing everything you see on CNN, Fox, RT, etc, etc....


I certainly recognize that not all in Turkey are 100% behind what their Government is becoming (same can be said of the US), so my criticism remains focused on the Erdoğan Government and not Turkey or the Turkish people as a whole. The misguided and botched 2003 invasion of Iraq and subsequent premature withdrawal have certainly helped to create the current mess in Iraq and Syria which the US owns some reasonability for.

Thank you for providing resources on the Kurdish forces, I am aware of the main factions at play Iraqi Peshmerga (good guys), PKK (recognized by US as terrorists), and the Syrian YPG (Somewhere in between). The Turkish Air Force has bombed all three in Syria, but later issued an apology for bombing the Peshmerga, which evidently was accidental. We can really go on ad nauseam about the links and differences between PKK and YPG, but suffice it to say the US Government sees a distinction between the two and the Turkish government does not. That's a pretty large foreign policy difference in terms of the fight against ISIS. The YPG have proven themselves to be effective fighters against Daesh, so I guess who is the greater evil is more of a matter of perception.

Simply stated, I personally think there are is more potential for negative outcomes of selling the F-35 to the unstable and autocratic Erdoğan Government than positive ones at his point. Sure the F-35 price might increase a bit for everyone else, but I think that is a small price to pay for not having the worlds premier combat aircraft falling into the hands of a dictatorship.
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durahawk

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Unread post23 Jun 2017, 19:51

XanderCrews wrote:Not to be cynical, but you think we only sell to nations that hold democracy as the highest virtue? We sell to dictatorships routinely. Betrayal is actually relatively rare. I love Israel but they've had no problem selling secrets to China.

So how do we reconcile these contradictions? And who would have thought our no holds barred withdrawal from the middle East could have resulted in a power vacuum? Who saw that coming? (Everyone)


I don't disagree, but just because we have sold military gear to some not-so-great dudes to further diplomatic objectives (and continue to do so) doesn't mean that we ought not learn from the instances where it has bit us in the past. The F-35 is also not your average piece of kit, and should not be treated in the same vain as a Stinger missile or an F-5.

Regarding the Isreali's, I have little doubt that Isreal, Japan, and South Korea will all attempt to reverse engineer the F-35 to some degree. Japan and South Korea have 5th Gen programs of there own, and will likely try to leverage whatever they can to further those domestic projects. The distinction is that those countries have stable Government's that aren't openly undermining the US.
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Unread post24 Jun 2017, 00:11

durahawk wrote:
XanderCrews wrote:Not to be cynical, but you think we only sell to nations that hold democracy as the highest virtue? We sell to dictatorships routinely. Betrayal is actually relatively rare. I love Israel but they've had no problem selling secrets to China.

So how do we reconcile these contradictions? And who would have thought our no holds barred withdrawal from the middle East could have resulted in a power vacuum? Who saw that coming? (Everyone)


I don't disagree, but just because we have sold military gear to some not-so-great dudes to further diplomatic objectives (and continue to do so) doesn't mean that we ought not learn from the instances where it has bit us in the past. The F-35 is also not your average piece of kit, and should not be treated in the same vain as a Stinger missile or an F-5.

Regarding the Isreali's, I have little doubt that Isreal, Japan, and South Korea will all attempt to reverse engineer the F-35 to some degree. Japan and South Korea have 5th Gen programs of there own, and will likely try to leverage whatever they can to further those domestic projects. The distinction is that those countries have stable Government's that aren't openly undermining the US.



Israel has previously sold military tech to China. I'm not talking reverse engineering. Google it
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Unread post26 Jun 2017, 12:32

The problem with Turkey is more general. It's not restricted to F-35. They are NATO members and have access to NATO secrets both technical and operational. Their officers serve in NATO headquarters. With the purge in armed forces that is happening right now, I assume that no pro-western officer will be left serving. If Turkish government is closer to Qatar, Iran and Russia then to NATO and US then it's better for OPSEC to discontinue their membership.
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Unread post26 Jun 2017, 13:58

Not so easy, Turkey has one key feature Erdogan won't ever purge -- location. If NATO drops Turkey, the dagger pointed at Russia's stomach will suddenly turn into a sword thrust into the Mediterranean. Access to the Black Sea would disappear, the Suez would be under Turkey's shadow, and the ability of the West to assure the security of Israel and Greece (however noncontributory they may be to Western efforts) would be thrown in jeopardy. All this together would constitute a massive loss of both security and prestige -- quite frankly, a disaster, for NATO.

Like it or not, Turkey has been the key of the orient for Europe since forever, and the land is going nowhere. For now the West seems to be content with having a bad friend, because it is preferable to having a sworn enemy.

Furthermore, I believe US strategic planners are not nearly so naive to believe a monopoly could be held over stealth. It is simply a question of how much of a lead in experience the US can have, and 40 years has been plenty. With Russia and China now putting effort into stealth designs of their own, it is strategically sound for the US to proliferate stealth technology, because while it may somewhat blunt the US's advantage, it blunts Russia and China even more.

In the end, remember that the F-35 was designed to be exported from the get-go. For an innovative nation like the US, materiel technologies are relatively trivial to advance. Paying a price in technologies for a strategic feature that cannot be engineered is, while not a coup, ultimately still in the US's favor.
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durahawk

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Unread post26 Jun 2017, 19:55

lbk000 wrote:Like it or not, Turkey has been the key of the orient for Europe since forever, and the land is going nowhere. For now the West seems to be content with having a bad friend, because it is preferable to having a sworn enemy.


I think this is a pretty accurate assessment of the situation, but it's a fine line that is getting increasingly thinner. Turkey is the party dictating the terms.
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Unread post26 Jun 2017, 20:41

Wrong title :
Turkey and its population is not the problem.
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archeman

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Unread post27 Jun 2017, 19:56

vilters wrote:Wrong title :
Turkey and its population is not the problem.


I'm not sure that is entirely true, and I'm not sure that Problem is the right word for it. Problem for Status Quo is probably a better way to describe it.

One of the bulwark tenets of the previous Turkish governments was support for Secularist approach to it's population.
The current government could not have accomplished this takeover without a significant portion of the Population also rejecting the notion of Secularist beliefs.

There is no reason to believe that somehow magically Turkey escaped the Islamist Fundamentalist wave that moved across the Middle East.

Perhaps wise minds in the 'West' can see opportunities in this change that my humble mind cannot...
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Unread post27 Jun 2017, 20:08

Maybe Turkey could use a good old-fashioned coup, not a fake one like erdogan staged. :mrgreen:
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Unread post27 Jun 2017, 20:52

archeman wrote:The current government could not have accomplished this takeover without a significant portion of the Population also rejecting the notion of Secularist beliefs.

The big issue with Turkey and it's voting population is that there is is a big difference between the voting majority in the cities and those on the countryside.

The majority of the voters in the cities support secularism while the majority on the countryside rejects it. As an interesting side-note: the average person in the city has a better education than those on the countryside.
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Unread post07 Jul 2017, 21:32

US lawmaker wants to block F-35 sales to Turkey over embassy brawl
07 Jul 2017 Joe Gould and Valerie Insinna

"WASHINGTON — A Democratic lawmaker from Rhode Island is seeking to block the U.S. sale of Lockheed Martin-made F-35 fighter jets to Turkey over an attack on protesters outside the Turkish ambassador’s residence in Washington two months ago. Rep. David Cicilline, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, has proposed the ban as an amendment to the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act, which was passed by the House Armed Services Committee last month....

...The amendment highlights the complicated U.S. relationship with Turkey, a key NATO ally and home to Incirlik Air Base. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has criticized Washington over its support for Kurdish groups fighting the Islamic State that Ankara considers terrorist organizations. The Trump administration has walked a tightrope, generally praising Turkey, despite widespread criticism Turkey has become more authoritarian following a coup attempt late last year....

...Lockheed Martin was aware before the amendment was published of emerging congressional concerns about F-35 sales to Turkey and closely watching for developments. During an interview at the Paris Air Show last month, Orlando Carvalho, Lockheed’s vice president of aeronautics, told Defense News that the company will stick to the current program of record until told otherwise.

“Members obviously have the freedom to ex press [made odd spelling to stop the word from becoming a live link] the concerns that they have, but obviously, that becomes a matter that has to be addressed between Congress and the Department of Defense,” he said. “So while we’re aware of it, we’re not taking any specific action. We’re continuing to execute the program of record. And we’ll continue to do so unless we receive formal direction from our customer, from the Department of Defense and the [Joint Program Office] to do something different.”

Turkey is slated to get its first F-35s as part of the 12th lot of aircraft. Lockheed and the Defense Department hope to come to an agreement on lot 11 this year, and batches 12 through 14 are currently under negotiation as a block buy for international customers.

At the Paris Air Show, Jeff Babione, Lockheed’s F-35 program manager, noted that Turkey plays a “significant” role in the production of all F-35 aircraft. As a subcontractor to Northrop Grumman, Turkish defense companies, including its largest firm, Turkish Aerospace Industries, manufacture a large portion of the center fuselage.

Carvalho maintained that despite the political turmoil in Turkey, F-35 suppliers and related intellectual property in the country remain safe.

“To date, we haven’t seen anything that is markedly different in the places where we operate, from a security point of view, whether it’s people’s safety and security, cybersecurity, whatever, we haven’t seen anything that has been markedly different,” he said. “If the United States changes its policy with regards to Turkey, then clearly we’d have to work with our customer to then determine what actions would have to be taken in response for that.”"

Source: http://www.defensenews.com/articles/us- ... assy-brawl
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Unread post10 Jul 2017, 05:25

Just to illustrate 'not all Turks are alike politically' and they are going to protesteth muchly:

Crowds rally against Turkish government 10 Jul 2017 SKYnews
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/world/eu ... nment.html
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Unread post10 Jul 2017, 05:38

XanderCrews wrote:Israel has previously sold military tech to China. I'm not talking reverse engineering. Google it


You can put Japan on that list too. Only it was to Russia
You can put P&W selling apache engine tech to China, through Canada.
It will finish ip a long list.
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Unread post10 Jul 2017, 06:30

spazsinbad wrote:[...A Democratic lawmaker from Rhode Island is seeking to block the U.S. sale of Lockheed Martin-made F-35 fighter jets to Turkey ..]


.....wow, I hate agreeing with this guy, but.....don't do this on a public street, regardless....
take pictures, etc, but don't come out of the embassy and attack the aggravators/ protesters.....

...what you do in your country is mostly your business, not here! Erdogan should acknowledge and detest the attack, maybe not "accept" the protesters!....Turkey is in NATO and the mutual respect should be required, by both NATO parties!
:(
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