The Turkey problem

[element1loop]

Kill the F-35 sale to Turkey before the situation gets more out of control. This will damage NATO, and other allied countries national security on so many levels. Losing 116 F-35 sales is of no consequence, ... <snipped>

I largely agree. The many equivocating and condemnatory comments plus propaganda coming directly from the mouth(s) of the leadership of Turkey over the past 3-years (since the immediate aftermath of Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, actually, Jan 2015) renders the following two claims absurd.

1- Turkey is still a strong NATO ally,
2- Nothing has changed in her foundations.

"Nothing has changed in her foundations"?

Not even a national constitution, imprisonment of a lawful democratic opposition, and bridling of free speech, and a free press, ... etc. ... etc.?

This can not be taken seriously as a reply, nor a serious basis for arguing for status-quo to remain in place. There have been dozens of statements made by Turkey's leadership that seriously calls those claims into doubt. (the further assertion that "hate" is at the heart of this, also can not be taken seriously).

Turkey's allegiance to NATO state defence could not be more unclear. It's already become too high a risk to permit tech/info/software/data transfers to proceed further. Without profound changes in the leadership cohort, and its attitudes, and a formal recant of its positions on several topics, it's hard to foresee a future where it would be acceptable.

The stakes are too high, and this is a matter of Turkey's own generation, excessive reaction-ism and avid domestic public and international exacerbation.

Bottom-line is, this is a risk that does not have to be taken. The F-35 is not actually essential to Turkey's defence nor to deterrance of aggression against Turkey, within the NATO alliance. Turkey can be effectively defended via its own airforce, plus the armed support of its NATO allies (i.e. just like a dozen other NATO states, sans F-35s in their respective airforces).

Not delivering F-35s to Turkey may be the diplomatic shunt it needs to actually reform and rationalise the nonsense that's been going on there thus ending up with a reformed and reliable ally, much sooner.

If not so be it ... we'll just adjust .. and already are.

Turkey's clearly hedging internationally, on many levels, and that's a warning signal. And the alliance(s) should be hedging accordingly, as that's the proper and valid response, and should not be inhibited from operating from here.

Let Turkey take on the resulting risks and feel the costs of dodgy comments, claims, actions and attitudes ... not the rest of us.

"You can go your own way" - Fleetwood Mac
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ul-cZyuYq4

Maybe they'll snap out of it in a decade ... maybe not ... if not it's far better to safeguard, where the risk is real, but non-essential to take, let alone necessary to accept.

They'll have to re 'prove' themselves, first, and we have to fundamentally review what's gained via continuing and why that's being done, besides inertia, if the risk:reward ratio is not worth the downside, if solidified. They need the Alliance(s) much more than it needs them. And if they access they don't need it, and it also doesn't need them, at least not in formal alliance, maybe ad-hoc coalitions (precisely as per Saudi levels of ad-hoc coalitions and transient combat integration, rather than a specific formal alliance membership), then why continue with the arrangement as it is expressed today?

Of course that has to be a rational decision based around the balance of projected battle, deterrence and diplomatic leverage and outcomes within the various forms of regional conflict, if a transient or rolling change is to be made to the status.

What we have now in my honest (mere) opinion, is not that rational and isn't transparent, seems adrift in the inertia of (a now changed) old past arrangements.

Do you just pull the band-aid off fast or draw it out slowly - as at present? And will drawing it out slowly produce a reformed genuine 'ally', that you actually trust, and who's interests are best served via close and unwavering loyal alliances within NATO? Or will pulling the band-aid off fast, leaving them exposed, at risk, and at high cost, inducing many domestic defence and other issues for them do that better, and faster (if at all ... in either case)?

The questions for me are; is Turkey's having the F-35 worth the risk to the Alliance(s), their effectiveness and security and justifying continuing with status-quo?

If conditions change, do not and should not the plans change too?

At what point would it rationally be not worth the risk to continue with the enduring status-quo plans?

And Is it likewise rational to be considering a change, given the above and else since about Jan 2015?

If not, why? What conditions would trigger that change?

The fact it's being discussed so openly makes clear there's a serious problem here, contrary to the, "Nothing has changed in her foundations" type view.

[mtrman]

What kind of ignorant are you???

You write all your comments and lies WITHOUT TOUCHING THE TRIGGERING ISSUE:

...
It is unbelievable that you can mention such nonsense that Turkey will buy the F-35s and sell critical info to the Russians, etc. Are you a child? Yes, U.S. deep state is openly and blatantly betraying Turkey by openly and blatantly supporting a pure Marxist/Communist/Terrorist group (YPG/PKK) which has been harming Turkey for more than 30 years. But even under this terrible circumstance, any of ranked officials or politicians in Turkey would do such a childish thing.
...

What kind of shameless are you who can still blame Turkey without TALKING ABOUT ABOVE MOST TRAGIC FACT???

And I am not even talking about FETO group, which openly tried a military coup, costed 250 lives and caused billions of dollars of economic loss just two years ago.

Any friend who wonders what YPG/PKK and FETO are can do a fast google search, or look at my previous posts in this thread...

[nutshell]

The only tragic fact the west wasting time with Turkey in 2018. <-

[bring_it_on]

Kill the F-35 sale to Turkey before the situation gets more out of control. This will damage NATO, and other allied countries national security on so many levels. Losing 116 F-35 sales is of no consequence, the market will only grow, and more then make up for the difference. Someone in charge has to start using some brains, and get a strategic sense. Can McMasters kill this deal on his way out of the White House?

Agreed! If a NATO member nation wants to, at this time of heightened security posture by the alliance, buy military equipment from a major NATO adversary that too via using state finance then they damn well should not be treated as a NATO ally. Turkey can go ahead and buy whatever they want from wherever they want, but it is high time the US and the west stops to pretend that Turkey is behaving like a NATO member. Kick them out of the JSF, let them sue and try to recover whatever money has been invested and let them park that money with Russia and become its client state. High time Turkey itself reconsiders its presence in NATO..

[neptune]

[quote="mtrman]

U.S. deep state is openly and blatantly betraying Turkey by openly and blatantly supporting a pure Marxist/Communist/Terrorist group (YPG/PKK) which has been harming Turkey for more than 30 years.
[/quote]

.....@mtrman, you seem interested in Turkey, perhaps you can enlighten me with up to date Turkish NATO support activities and even their participation in the F-35 program, please.
Thanks in advance!
Neptune

[durahawk]

What kind of ignorant are you???

You write all your comments and lies WITHOUT TOUCHING THE TRIGGERING ISSUE:

...
It is unbelievable that you can mention such nonsense that Turkey will buy the F-35s and sell critical info to the Russians, etc. Are you a child? Yes, U.S. deep state is openly and blatantly betraying Turkey by openly and blatantly supporting a pure Marxist/Communist/Terrorist group (YPG/PKK) which has been harming Turkey for more than 30 years. But even under this terrible circumstance, any of ranked officials or politicians in Turkey would do such a childish thing.
...

What kind of shameless are you who can still blame Turkey without TALKING ABOUT ABOVE MOST TRAGIC FACT???

And I am not even talking about FETO group, which openly tried a military coup, costed 250 lives and caused billions of dollars of economic loss just two years ago.

Any friend who wonders what YPG/PKK and FETO are can do a fast google search, or look at my previous posts in this thread...

Triggered, indeed...

Look, I'm not interested in getting into the YPG/PKK can of worms with you (again), but suffice it to say it's a moot point since your own government acknowledges the Trump Administration has stopped arming the YPG:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42118567

[mtrman]

@durehawk
That's why I try to select my words carefully. If you notice, I used the phrase of "US deep state". Why? Let me to tell you please:

As you gave the link, those news had spread fast. After giving THOUSANDS of TRUCKS of MODERN WEAPONARY to pure Marxist/Communist/Terrorist YPG/PYD/PKK, U.S. now seems to slow down the flow.

But in the last week, guess what happened, please. After completing the equipping phase, now an intense training phase begins by our ally (confirmed by CIA):
https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terro ... gular-army
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1223756/middle-east

I hope I could be able to tell you what kind of danger Turkey is facing and what we feel. Even the U.S. President can't stop this terrible tendency of directly harming and betraying Turkey...

@Neptune, I would be more than happy to give you any info as long as I have it (though I am not expert about politics nor history). But I think you can find much more info on google about the topics you have mentioned. Anyway, feel free to ask for anything, please, if you think I could help.

[nutshell]

Dude i'm not even american.

[mtrman]

Okay Dude, does it matter?
In this thread the topic is F-35 and Turkey.

Some people (including you) "try to show" or "think" the source of problems in recent US-Turkey relations as Turkey. And I am trying to proof that it is not...

Among this people, I think there might be two groups:
- Objective people who are the victims of mass media like Fox, CNN, RT, etc.
- Shameless, ignorant ones who try to show white as black, because of their Turkish and/or Muslim hate.

[blindpilot]

...
Some people (including you) "try to show" or "think" the source of problems in recent US-Turkey relations as Turkey. And I am trying to proof that it is not...
...

1. I have no opinion as to whether we should or should not try and cancel the F-35 sales.
2. I am not presuming any political wisdom on what has happened or should happen historically or politically.
3. While I am familiar with people (US and Turk) who live in Turkey as a part of the bases and NATO activity there, my comments are not related in any way to that feedback.

mtrman you are full of sh##. I don't know whether it's an agenda or benign ignorance, but you are full of it.

I have friends who have lived in Turkey for over a decade. Civilian lives on regular streets. Some (American) have had to leave and return to the States, because spirits and tensions there make it unsafe for their children. For those who remain, I can't even tell you who they are because they risk arrest, imprisonment, or worse just if they are identified as friendly with some Americans.

No this is not about American presidents or Kurds in Syria. This is the culture that brought the current leadership to power in Turkey. There is an emerging Islamic/Caliphate type spirit that is eating away at Atatürk's secular constitution based Turkey. And that ... not the Kurds, not the US, not secret coup plotters, that scares the sh** out of plain old Turks in the street, who I know.

Scream your little narrative all you want, but it will not change the reports from those afraid to even identify themselves in a forum like this. Turkey is not a safe place these days for many there to live on the streets, without considerable caution.

That's the problem! Fact! The S-400 purchase is a symptom, not the disease.

FWIW
BP

[madrat]

@mtrman-
Wow, hurting Turkey for 30 years. Let's look at Turkey and it's past 600 years. But woah it's been counter-cultured for 30 years, which consequently is pure rubbish. Turkey today is the conduit of the Muslim invasion of Europe, a role unchanged for over six centuries. And the democratically elected government of Turkey is blatantly preaching intolerance of European Christian culture. So wipe away your crocodile tears and buzz off.

[loke]

1. I have no opinion as to whether we should or should not try and cancel the F-35 sales.
2. I am not presuming any political wisdom on what has happened or should happen historically or politically.
3. While I am familiar with people (US and Turk) who live in Turkey as a part of the bases and NATO activity there, my comments are not related in any way to that feedback.

mtrman you are full of sh##. I don't know whether it's an agenda or benign ignorance, but you are full of it.

I have friends who have lived in Turkey for over a decade. Civilian lives on regular streets. Some (American) have had to leave and return to the States, because spirits and tensions there make it unsafe for their children. For those who remain, I can't even tell you who they are because they risk arrest, imprisonment, or worse just if they are identified as friendly with some Americans.

No this is not about American presidents or Kurds in Syria. This is the culture that brought the current leadership to power in Turkey. There is an emerging Islamic/Caliphate type spirit that is eating away at Atatürk's secular constitution based Turkey. And that ... not the Kurds, not the US, not secret coup plotters, that scares the sh** out of plain old Turks in the street, who I know.

Scream your little narrative all you want, but it will not change the reports from those afraid to even identify themselves in a forum like this. Turkey is not a safe place these days for many there to live on the streets, without considerable caution.

That's the problem! Fact! The S-400 purchase is a symptom, not the disease.

FWIW
BP

Excellent post!

I would like to add though that Turkey seems very polarized at the moment, there are many Turks who are still pro-west, and pro-NATO.

IF Turkey drops out of NATO and becomes a close ally with either Russia or China then I think that would be a very negative development for Europe, the US, but also for most people in Turkey, and the ME.

Until we reach a point of no return I suggest we should support the Turkish voices of reason as much as we can. They are struggling against dark forces in their country, and although they currently look weak I think there are quite still many of them. If they lose the fight against darkness then not just Turkey but also we in the West will suffer the consequenses.

I hope and pray it will never get to that point.

[airforces_freak]

Turkey is being misread by many in the Western world and this is the primary reason for the crisis of confidence between Turkey and Western Institutions.

First and foremost, Turkey is not BECOMING an Islamic Republic it ALWAYS was an Islamic Republic. An Islamic Republic which was Constitutionally Lacite/Secular but which also had Sunni Islam under Constitutional protection through the Diyanet/Presidency of Religious Affairs. The former is well known within Western circles but the later is always conveniently ignored.

Turkey's return to the Middle East is accordingly being misinterpreted by some within the West as a return to neo-Ottomanism. Yet modern Turkey has no imperial ambitions- imperial in the sense of regaining lost territories. Turkey is looking for spheres of influence and new markets. It no longer wants to rely on Western markets nor does it merely want to be blindly anchored to the West. As former PM Ahmet Davutoglu put it Turkey is seeking to create pax-Ottomana within former Ottoman territories. Just like the British have created the Commonwealth of Nations. A trading bloc that would increase trade amongst former Ottoman possessions.

The AKP is a Conservative Islamic Party ELECTED to office on numerous occasions by the Turkish people. It is akin to the Christian Democrats in Germany. It's primary objective during election campaigning was to improve Turkey's economy which it has already done and open up Turkey to the world through Turkey-centric foreign policy. Not be limited to Western markets. The Turkish people voted for this and the AKP is merely delivering.

The AKP's voter base was also fed up of being bullied around by the staunch leftists which banned the headscarf and curtailed the fundamental human rights of conservative Turks.

Now for those who think Turkey will become the new Iran. This is furthest from the truth and a narrative put forward by political opponents of the AKP to instil fear and mistrust.

Turkey is merely displaying a Turkey centric foreign policy. Its primary objective is Turkish interests and good relations with both East and West. US Policies in the Middle East has meant that Russia now rules this part of the world. Accordingly, Turkey is obliged to have some level of normality with Russia.

Now when we come to the JSF program I would like to draw your attention to a few points:

Turkey's S-400 acquisition is merely an excuse to exert pressure on Turkey and keep it anchored within the Western sphere. The US does not want Turkey to display a Turkey-centric foreign policy which has good relations with both East and West. Both NATO members Greece and Bulgaria have S-300's in their inventories. Although, they were not intentionally acquired (in Greece's case) and acquired prior to NATO membership in Bulgaria's case, 2 NATO members already operate Russia ABM systems.
Turkey is not a mere purchaser of the F-35 but a JSF consortium Member State whose industry has been heavily involved in all aspects of the program.
Turkey has already stated that it has many alternatives to the F-35 and that it will not acquire it at all costs: https://www.yenisafak.com/en/economy/tu ... ts-2818837
Turkey has also stated unequivocally that Turkey may remove US radars at Kurecik if its F-35s are not delivered on schedule. The US has an AN-TPY-2 radar that was set up by the U.S. in 2012 at Malatya- Kürecik, Turkey which keeps Iran and the region under a watchful eye: https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/turke ... le-2808663

Thus, the F-35 acquisition by Turkey will also determine its future in NATO and the Western sphere. Should the F-35 not be sold to Turkey this would only crystallise Turkey's pivot to the East.

Through Foreign Military Sales the US has SOME level of control over the arms it sells. If Turkey is pushed into Russia's lap for 5th Generation aircraft it will only mean that the US has ZERO control over Turkish air assets and a more independent Turkey. Policy makers in Washington are well aware of this and hence why the threat to not sell Turkey the F-35 has been rebuffed by the State Department and White House.

[madrat]

Considering the Sino influences over Turkey, the pivot East is inevitably going to happen regardless of the F-35 ultimatum. Best cut losses up front.

[nutshell]

It's not that hard to understand Turkey and the West are not meant to be together.

The F35 should not be sold to a country that has an agenda in complete opposition to the one of its allies.

Turkey is flirting with our "enemies", the dagger is ready to strike, it's undeniable.

Then let's be real: you cant mix muslims and christians
It just doesnt work.