The Turkey problem

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tincansailor

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Unread post04 Dec 2017, 08:25

mtrman wrote:@tincan

I agree with many points. But with a few exceptions:

- US intervention in Iraq since the gulf war is not such innocent;
- How a Kurdish de facto state establised after Gulf War? Who benefitted it? (Israel, US)
- Who benefitted the almost independent southern shia Iraq? (of course Iran)
- Who benefitted the systematic destruction of sunni majority of central Iraq? (Iran)
- Who handed over the central Iraq Government to Shia gangs? (Obama) Who benefitted? (Iran)

- Turkey, only helped FSA, not Daesh. I tried to explain what Daesh (ISIS) is and who entirely benefitted and who is being harmed by it's existence in my previous posts. I had put some very strong claims and questions about Daesh, PKK/YPG and US trio. But there is not anybody yet to give any solid answer...

- I am also quite surprised to see your comparison between Trump and Obama since I guess you are from US. When I examine the almost all of Obama's actions, he directly or indirectly harmed sunni muslims and countries, while doing anything, again anything against Russia and Shia Iran... Isn't it? And Trump, while seems to be like a crazy guy, is bolder and more determined against Russia and Iran. At least he dared to send a few cruise missiles after one of the uses of chemical weapons in Syria...

As an outsider, I am watching gaping, how the Trump, a democratically selected President, is being attacked by so many organisations...



I will try to answer some of your questions, or at least give you my opinion.

First when you say America wasn't innocent after the first Gulf War. I take it your a Turk. Turks have a fear of any Kurds having any sort of independent life, America isn't. The Kurds were enemies of Saddam, and worked with the U.S., and were friendly toward Israel. We didn't want Saddam to massacre them, so we protected them. The Kurds of Iraq have lived in a peaceful multi party democratic state, allied with America, that's fine to most of the world, not the Turks. The same is true for the Marsh Arabs. They were a threat to no one, and we didn't want Saddam to kill them.

We didn't destroy any Sunni majority in central Iraq. A unified Iraq is majority Shiite, If you have a national election a Shiite is gonna win. Bush used his influence on almost a daily basis to keep the government in Bagdad from hurting Sunni interests. Obama didn't want to make the effort. Iraq was not a puppet of Iran in 2010. The situation was being managed. Obama had a policy of accommodation at almost any price with Iran. His judgment sucked.

Turkey gave some support to the FSA. They allowed volunteer fighters, arms, and supplies to cross their territory to ISIS, and traded oil with them. Erdogan's family made money off it. Later ISIS attacked Turkey, and Turkey regretted what it did.

Yes I agree Trump is a crazy guy. He is against Iran, but not Russia. He has no coherent strategy. He cannot reconcile his anti Iran, and pro Russia positions, in the face of a Russian Iranian alliance. He fired 59 Tomahawks into Syria for emotional reasons. It upset him, and his daughter that Assad gassed children. The attack represented no change in policy. He has no objection to the Russian slaughtering children in Syria, as long as they don't use gas, and he doesn't see the pictures of the dead kids on his TV.

Trump likes the Turks because he makes money there, and the Saudis for the same reason, and because they hate Iran. He has no idea on a strategy on Sunni vs Shiite. That's why we almost stumbled into giving the ok for a war between the Saudis and Qatar. That would have been a disaster for or Middle East policy, and Iran would have been the big winner.

He's an emotional man, not a planner. All his ideas on foreign policy are unformed. He has prejudges, and stereotypes. His ideas change when he talks to someone new. That's why world leaders are able to manipulate him so easily. Before he was elected China was a currency manipulator that he would stop on his first day in office. Now the Chinese President is his best buddy, because if you like Trump, Trump likes you.

America is a free country, unlike Turkey. People and organizations are free to disagree with a president. Trump was duly elected, but by a minority popular vote. He is the most unpopular president in modern times. Every president in modern times has his popularity go up after their election. People who voted against them, or didn't even vote give him their support because they hope for the good of the country, and they want to give him a chance. Trump acted in the most obnoxious manner, offending most of those not on his side, starting immediately after his election, and just offended the majority of the country, and lowered his numbers to all-time lows.

He has offended his own party in congress, his own intelligence services, the very idea of free press, the courts, minorities, women, academia, and the general sense of decency of most people. About 60% of Americans think he is unfit for office, and many doubt his mental stability. In general he has treated the institutions of this country with contempt. He treats everyone who publicly disagrees with him with contempt, and childish name calling. He has confused, frightened, and insulted many of our allies. No other president has acted in this manor, or to this degree. All these behaviors can't help but provoke public attacks. For most Americans, even his supporters he is an embarrassment.
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laos

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Unread post04 Dec 2017, 10:32

tincansailor wrote:Yes I agree Trump is a crazy guy. He is against Iran, but not Russia. He has no coherent strategy. He cannot reconcile his anti Iran, and pro Russia positions, in the face of a Russian Iranian alliance.
Trump likes the Turks because he makes money there, and the Saudis for the same reason, and because they hate Iran.


Let me give you some European perspective. Russia is a bigger threat to Central Europe than to US.
There was no more anti-Russian US president since Ronald Reagan. Trump presents the most coordinated policy of harming Russia in the economic and military fields since Ronald Reagan. You are probably a victim of stupidity in CNN.

Facts:
It was the government of President Trump who threatened sanctions against any European company that will engage in the construction of the Russian North Stream 2 gas pipeline that Russia, Germany and France want to build in order for Russia to be able to cut Central Europe for gas supply or use the thread in its foreign policy. He is ready to harm relations with Germany and France in order to hit Russia in the most sensitive point of their economy. It was for President Trump that the United States became very involved in the defense for Poland and the Baltic States against Russia. When there were Russian military exercises Zapad 2017 in fall of 2017, there were almost 2 ABCT + paratroopers, cavalry and many other units in Poland and Baltic States. For the first time since the end of cold war. Almost every day, American electronic intelligence planes fly along Kaliningrad and Belorussian border in Poland. It was President Trump who began building strategic warehouses in Poland for the needs of quickly deployed troops from the USA. Obama was a pussy for Russians and he even admitted it himself in famous recording when he spoke with Mr. Miedwiediew. Obama said that any his anty russian statement are only for election show and after the elections he will be very elastic for them.
In my opinion Trump pursues a policy based on US interests, not based on ideas like democracy, political correctness.
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tincansailor

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Unread post04 Dec 2017, 19:51

Let me give you some European perspective. Russia is a bigger threat to Central Europe than to US.
There was no more anti-Russian US president since Ronald Reagan. Trump presents the most coordinated policy of harming Russia in the economic and military fields since Ronald Reagan. You are probably a victim of stupidity in CNN.

Facts:
It was the government of President Trump who threatened sanctions against any European company that will engage in the construction of the Russian North Stream 2 gas pipeline that Russia, Germany and France want to build in order for Russia to be able to cut Central Europe for gas supply or use the thread in its foreign policy. He is ready to harm relations with Germany and France in order to hit Russia in the most sensitive point of their economy. It was for President Trump that the United States became very involved in the defense for Poland and the Baltic States against Russia. When there were Russian military exercises Zapad 2017 in fall of 2017, there were almost 2 ABCT + paratroopers, cavalry and many other units in Poland and Baltic States. For the first time since the end of cold war. Almost every day, American electronic intelligence planes fly along Kaliningrad and Belorussian border in Poland. It was President Trump who began building strategic warehouses in Poland for the needs of quickly deployed troops from the USA. Obama was a pussy for Russians and he even admitted it himself in famous recording when he spoke with Mr. Miedwiediew. Obama said that any his anty russian statement are only for election show and after the elections he will be very elastic for them.
In my opinion Trump pursues a policy based on US interests, not based on ideas like democracy, political correctness.

[/quote]

Thank you for your prospective. Yes what you say is true. Trump has done all those things. The question is why? Many of the defensive measures you talk about were begun by Obama. After pulling all heavy units out of Europe we had to go back, when the Russia threat got hotter after the attack on Ukraine. The first deployments and stockpiling of arms to Eastern Europe were also begun under Obama. You have no idea how it hurts me to say anything nice about Obama, his policies were terrible.

The natural gas policy change was for domestic reasons. Trump wants to sell gas because it's in American interests to make money for the American energy sector, not to hurt Russia. Trump has failed to implement the sanctions that Congress imposed on Russia this August. He had a deadline of Oct 1. He is under intense scrutiny on any concessions to Russia. Those military activities your talking about are being implemented by the national security establishment, or has Trump, and the Russians would call it the "Deep State". If he had stopped them it would have caused an uproar in America.

Trump has publicly questioned if our NATO commitments to any member state are valid if their not paying their 2%. He has questioned if America would really go to war for Estonia? He said it in mocking tones, implying that little Estonia just isn't worth it. Many of his supporters repeated that suggestion, in the same mocking tones.

There was a fundamental change for many on the Right in American after the Cold War. The Cold War was a struggle with Communism, so the Right was all in in the ideological battle. When Russia became a White Nationalist State many on the Right lost interest in our commitment to a free Europe. They reverted to a pre WWII mindset of America First. Support for national interests, retreat from global commitments, and institutions. He said the people of Crimea wanted to part of Russia.

You mentioned not basing American policy on advancing democracy. Your correct. Support for democracy has all but disappeared from our agenda. The State Department has been dismantled. 1/3 of it's budget cut, it's top positions unfilled, ambassadors un-appointed, pro democracy programs defunded. When Trump visited your President this summer he stood with him and publicly mocked the press. This with a leader who has attempted to muzzle the press in Poland, and put it under state control.

No president before Trump would have done that. It is a betrayal of what America has stood for in the world, Freedom. You can't have freedom without free media. Our founders understood that, and enshrined it in our First Amendment to the Constitution. Advancing freedom in the world has been a pillar of American foreign policy since Wilson. I seem to recall he returned the favor from Kosciuszko and helped Poland be reborn.

Trump embraced the ideas of general Flynn, not our traditional policy. Flynn saw a world were our main threat was from the Muslim World, not Russia. Russia was seen as a powerful ally in that struggle against a mutual enemy. In that world view Russia is worth a hell of a lot more then our commitment to Poland. If you think Donald Trump has a warm place in his heart for Poland, it seems he has an even warmer place for Russia.
Last edited by tincansailor on 05 Dec 2017, 13:09, edited 1 time in total.
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laos

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Unread post05 Dec 2017, 10:53

Dear Tincansailor

Thank you for your opinions and interesting information that I was not aware off.
Poles are very thankful to president Wilson for his 13th point of his Fourteen Points and decision to support Poland in its struggle against Germany and Soviet Union in the end of I WW. In 1926 5,5 mln Poles sign a thank you letter to citizens of USA. The letter is in the library of US Congress.

I am trying to observe results without looking into the political statements that quit often do not bring results or that change frequently. Especially frequently in the present administration. Statements from the elections shouldn’t be taken seriously because in resent times they are only aimed on particular group of listeners. When you speak to farmers you say what farmers want to hear. When you speak to students you speak what students want to hear even though it might contradict what you spoke to farmers.
In the last days of Obama 8 year term and only after Warsaw NATO summit that force the commitment, Obama administration made decision that in the January 2017 the deployment of circa 1 ABCT commence. The traffic in the fall of 2017 of US unites that can be seen in Central Europe in much more then that. Off course is very likely that guys that stand behind that decision are Mattis, Scaparrotti and others. Still, the president have a right to veto it. From the public statements I guess gen. Breedlove ask Obama for it and it was vetoed by democratic administration.

Not building North Stream 2 does not directly lead to purchase of US gas. All the present demand can be met through present day pipes. Poland have a long term contract with Katar for natural gas along the natural gas contract with Russia. The sell of US gas on European market is win-win solution. It’s good for US companies because it’s open new market for them, it’s good for European countries because it brinks competition to the market and it’s good for NATO because if Russia is denied ability to sell it’s gas on European market it will not have money that can be use to modernize it armed forces. Still, it is happening now. Somehow it didn’t happened 8 years ago. Maybe someone was afraid to tread on Russian snake for last 8 years?

Trump commend that US may not defend countries that do not pay 2% for defense, even being ridiculous, was very good. Rich west European countries try to ride on poor European countries back for common defense. During cold war they spent a lot for common defense and now when they do not feel endangered by Russia, want that defense of NATO against Russia is provided by poor central European countries and USA. Poland GDP is circa 7,5 smaller than Germany GDP. It’s not right and I think it’s good the Trump said that. My perception of Trump is that he is a “player”. He say things to achieve his goals, not that he mean what he says.

But the topic is Turkey.
In view of thousands of pro European Turkish military and diplomatic personnel asking for political asylum in Europe, the perception is that the only military personnel left not in prison in Turkey, is pro Islamist and anti European. If Erdogan and it’s supporters in Turkey military, view Russia as a better partner to achieve Turkish government goals, how NATO may believe that turkey will not leak NATO secrets to Russia ?
The people of Turkey have a right to democratically choose the way majority want to live. If they want to live in caliphate, it’s their right to choose it. But NATO should consider whether Turkey, as we know it today, is Turkey that was allowed to join NATO many years ago. Would we accept Turkey to NATO now, a country with 100.000 political prisoners ?
Last edited by laos on 05 Dec 2017, 15:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post05 Dec 2017, 12:00

Europe has gone out of its way to integrate Turkey. The experiment failed. Turkey has been the stepping stone to the fanatical religious zealot invasion of Europe for centuries and a few decades of making love was to forget that? Not hardly. Gee, I wonder if Turkey had any involvement in previous wars that engulfed the whole of Europe?
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tincansailor

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Unread post05 Dec 2017, 14:19

laos wrote:Dear Tincansailor

Thank you for your opinions and interesting information that I was not aware off.
Poles are very thankful to president Wilson for his 13th point of his Fourteen Points and decision to support Poland in its struggle against Germany and Soviet Union in the end of I WW. In 1926 5,5 mln Poles sign a thank you letter to citizens of USA. The letter is in the library of US Congress.

But the topic is Turkey.
In view of thousands of pro European Turkish military and diplomatic personnel asking for political asylum in Europe, the perception is that the only military personnel left not in prison in Turkey is pro Islamist and anti European. If Erdogan and it’s supporters in Turkey military view Russia as a better partner to achieve Turkish government goals, how NATO may believe that turkey will not leak NATO secrets to Russia ?
The people of Turkey have a right to democratically choose the way majority want to live. If they want to live in caliphate, it’s their right to chose it. But NATO should consider whether Turkey as we know it today is Turkey that was allowed to join NATO many years ago. Would we accept now to NATO a country with 100.000 political prisoners ?



Your very welcome laos. Your prospective as an Eastern European is very interesting, and appreciated. Your so right about politicians adjusting their pitch for the audience. In the case of Trump it's always hard to say what he really means. He has taken every position on almost all issues at one time or another. The only steady position he seems to have taken is a desire to cultivate friendship with Russia. There's not really a constituency in America to say "Ukraine, is that even a country? I thought it was part of Russia."

The issue is always trust, and confidence. Trump is a highly unstable person, steeped in corruption, and heavily dependent on Russian dirty money. He's record is of a dishonest businessman, who cheats everyone around him. He lies pathologically. He's driven by ego. It's difficult to have confidence in a man like that.

Yes Turkey is a major problem. It has become an authoritarian state, with a theocratic tinge. It has it's feet in several camps. It's a NATO member in military cooperation with Russia. It's a Sunni State with ties to the Saudi led Sunni Block that opposes Iran. At the same time it's cooperating with Iran to control the Kurds, and upholds a common front in Syria with both Iran, and Russia. It has aspirations of being a major regional power in both the Middle East, and the Mediterranean. They may sometimes look west, but their heart is in the east. This is about the last country that should have the F-35.

The problem may be that Trump has financial interests in Turkey. He has said that he can't do much with Erdogan, because he has two towers in Turkey. Trump is so compromised it's a danger to national security. Everything is kind of up in the air. America is essentially leaderless. As you say men like Mattis, Kelly, and McMasters are trying to hold everything together, not let a war breakout in Korea, or give the store away to Russia. It's hard to manage a 71 year old child.
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Unread post06 Dec 2017, 03:36

laos wrote:Poles are very thankful to president Wilson for his 13th point of his Fourteen Points and decision to support Poland in its struggle against Germany and Soviet Union in the end of I WW. In 1926 5,5 mln Poles sign a thank you letter to citizens of USA. The letter is in the library of US Congress.


Sorry about 1939...
u = (CB)⁻¹(cvdt_des - CAx)
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tincansailor

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Unread post06 Dec 2017, 06:10

rheonomic wrote:
laos wrote:Poles are very thankful to president Wilson for his 13th point of his Fourteen Points and decision to support Poland in its struggle against Germany and Soviet Union in the end of I WW. In 1926 5,5 mln Poles sign a thank you letter to citizens of USA. The letter is in the library of US Congress.


Sorry about 1939...



What do you think America could do about it in 1939? Things should have been done before that. The real tragedy was 1945, and I don't know what we could have done then, short of WWIII.
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