The Turkey problem

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pron

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Unread post15 Dec 2019, 20:47

Turkey warns sanctions could jeopardize US access to Incirlik Air Base.

Turkey could kick the U.S. out of Incirlik Air Base if Washington moves forward with sanctions linked to Ankara’s incursion into Syria and the purchase of Russian weaponry, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said.

A separate base that hosts a key U.S. Army radar used for NATO missile defense in Europe also could be made off-limits to the Americans, Cavusoglu said in an interview with Turkey’s A Haber news station.

Turkey play a dangerous game here, but with Erdogan in the chair it's not a surprise.

https://www.stripes.com/news/europe/tur ... e-1.610663
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spazsinbad

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Unread post15 Jan 2020, 08:38

Turkey Mostly Out of F-35 by March
14 Jan 2019 John A. Tirpak

"It could take until the end of the year to fully cut Turkey out of the F-35 program, Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief Ellen Lord said Jan. 14.

“The majority of our supply chain will be out of Turkey by March,” Lord told defense reporters in Washington, D.C. However, Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney, the airframe and engine maker of the F-35, respectively, have “contracts that may carry out to the end of the year” with Turkey, Lord said. She added only that the Pentagon is managing the “unwinding” of that country’s involvement in the program “to minimize impact to production.”

There’s been no discussion with Ankara about the disposition of four F-35s owned by Turkey that are in the US, of which Lord herself has said will not be delivered to Turkish soil...." [then more about other stuff not related to Turkey]

Source: https://www.airforcemag.com/turkey-most ... -by-march/
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
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mixelflick

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Unread post15 Jan 2020, 16:21

I see Greece getting the F-35, and Turkey then being in a real bind. Don't think they can afford the SU-57, at least not in any reasonable quantity. They may spring for the SU-35, but it'll be at a considerable disadvantage.

Actually the more I think of it, the bigger this problem is (for Turkey). Unlike advanced F-16 derivatives, the F-35 adds a potent offensive capability the Turks will find difficult to defend against. That may very well be the battlefield where we see the F-35 vs. S-400/SU-35 matchup play out.

Hard to imagine it's come to this. Seems like yesterday when a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian SU-24, killing at least one of its pilots. Politics indeed makes for strange bedfellows...
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Corsair1963

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 01:08

mixelflick wrote:I see Greece getting the F-35, and Turkey then being in a real bind. Don't think they can afford the SU-57, at least not in any reasonable quantity. They may spring for the SU-35, but it'll be at a considerable disadvantage.

Actually the more I think of it, the bigger this problem is (for Turkey). Unlike advanced F-16 derivatives, the F-35 adds a potent offensive capability the Turks will find difficult to defend against. That may very well be the battlefield where we see the F-35 vs. S-400/SU-35 matchup play out.

Hard to imagine it's come to this. Seems like yesterday when a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian SU-24, killing at least one of its pilots. Politics indeed makes for strange bedfellows...



Turkey buying the Su-35 and/or Su-57. Would very likely lead to a split with the West (US and Europe) and sanctions. Which, is why I said from the start it will "never" happen...


In short sooner or later Erdogan will be forced to come to the table and make a deal..... :wink:
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marsavian

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 01:55

Lol, what deal would that be. Erdogan has already stubbornly chosen the S-400 over F-35 and its industrial participation. Defending against ballistic missiles he sees as more important than bombing a few Kurds stealthily. He's already threatened to kick the US out of its Turkish bases if there are sanctions which is why there has been none. Su-35/Su-57 will be bought and Turkey will become more sidelined in NATO but that is their sovereign right to run their foreign policy as they see fit, ATM they are just partners of convenience in NATO as the US likes their bases there and Turkey likes Article 5 protection.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 02:51

marsavian wrote:Lol, what deal would that be. Erdogan has already stubbornly chosen the S-400 over F-35 and its industrial participation. Defending against ballistic missiles he sees as more important than bombing a few Kurds stealthily. He's already threatened to kick the US out of its Turkish bases if there are sanctions which is why there has been none. Su-35/Su-57 will be bought and Turkey will become more sidelined in NATO but that is their sovereign right to run their foreign policy as they see fit, ATM they are just partners of convenience in NATO as the US likes their bases there and Turkey likes Article 5 protection.


You really think Turkey is going to trade it's relationship (and all of the benefits) with the West for Russia???

:lmao:
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marsavian

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 03:20

When Putin sanctioned Turkey Erdogan cried and begged Vladimir's forgiveness for shooting down his Su-24. Turkey does more business with Russia than the US and EU won't go along with any US sanctions. On this thread you was telling us for months that Erdogan would not give up the F-35 for S-400 so you don't have a great track record of prediction here. It's done, the die has been cast, Turkey will get non-US military hardware in the future beyond the S-400, in fact they are trying to get their indigenous fighter off the ground recently asking for other countries and suppliers to help them (Malaysia and Rolls-Royce).
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Corsair1963

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 04:00

marsavian wrote:When Putin sanctioned Turkey Erdogan cried and begged Vladimir's forgiveness for shooting down his Su-24. Turkey does more business with Russia than the US and EU won't go along with any US sanctions. On this thread you was telling us for months that Erdogan would not give up the F-35 for S-400 so you don't have a great track record of prediction here. It's done, the die has been cast, Turkey will get non-US military hardware in the future beyond the S-400, in fact they are trying to get their indigenous fighter off the ground recently asking for other countries and suppliers to help them (Malaysia and Rolls-Royce).



Odds are Turkey will give up the S-400 in some form or another. In order to finally get the F-35. You can believe that or not....(like I care)

As for Turkey doing more business with Russia over the US and UE that isn't false. It's blatantly false........


Below is a list showcasing 15 of Turkey’s top trading partners in terms of export sales. These are countries that imported the most Turkish shipments by dollar value during 2018. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total Turkish exports.

1.Germany: US$16.1 billion (9.6% of total Turkish exports)
2.United Kingdom: $11.1 billion (6.6%)
3.Italy: $9.6 billion (5.7%)
4.Iraq: $8.4 billion (5%)
5.United States: $8.3 billion (4.9%)
6.Spain: $7.7 billion (4.6%)
7.France: $7.3 billion (4.3%)
8.Netherlands: $4.8 billion (2.8%)
9.Belgium: $4 billion (2.4%)
10.Israel: $3.9 billion (2.3%)
11.Romania: $3.9 billion (2.3%)
12.Russia: $3.4 billion (2%)
13.Poland: $3.3 billion (2%)
14.United Arab Emirates: $3.1 billion (1.9%)
15.Egypt: $3.1 billion (1.8%)

http://www.worldstopexports.com/turkeys ... -partners/
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marsavian

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 04:43

Turkey imports twice as much from Russia as it does from USA, $21.3bn vs $10.26bn and Turkey's exports to Russia collapsed from $6bn+ after the Fencer shoot down.

Turkey is also the top tourist destination for Russians, 5m trips beating No.2 Finland which is 2.5m and China 1.4m. How much foreign exchange do you think those Russians are bringing in at $1,676 per one trip ? $8bn. Sorry but Russia is more important economically to Turkey than the US even if their exports haven't recovered from their peak.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/turkey
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... rts/turkey
https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/exports/russia
https://www.tourism-review.com/russian- ... -news10935

The only way Turkey is going to revoke their S-400 and come back into the F-35 fold is if there is a new President with that attitude. Good luck on beating the ballot stuffer as he intends to stick around as long as Putin.
Last edited by marsavian on 16 Jan 2020, 04:45, edited 1 time in total.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 04:44

marsavian wrote:Turkey imports twice as much from Russia as it does from USA, $21.3bn vs $10.26bn and Turkey's exports to Russia collapsed from $6bn after the Fencer shoot down.
Turkey is also the top tourist destination for Russians, 5m trips beating No.2 Finland which is 2.5m and China 1.4m. How much foreign exchange do you think those Russians are bringing in at $1,676 per one trip ? $8bn. Sorry but Russia is more important economically to Turkey than the US even if their exports haven't recovered from their peak.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/turkey
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... rts/turkey
https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/exports/russia
https://www.tourism-review.com/russian- ... -news10935

The only way Turkey is going to revoke their S-400 and come back into the F-35 fold is if there is a new President with that attitude. Good luck on beating the ballot stuffer as he intends to stick around as long as Putin.


Hate to break to you. Yet, to Turkey "exports" is what it is all about...........
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marsavian

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 04:48

Russian Tourists are spending as much on Turkish holidays as Turkish exports to the US and I bet the margins are better too ;). Sorry but EU and Russia are more important economically than the US to the Turks and how much of their US exports were F-35 related and which are going away now ?! Don't forget the new gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey too.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 05:23

marsavian wrote:Russian Tourists are spending as much on Turkish holidays as Turkish exports to the US and I bet the margins are better too ;). Sorry but EU and Russia are more important economically than the US to the Turks and how much of their US exports were F-35 related and which are going away now ?! Don't forget the new gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey too.



You said "Turkey does more business with Russia than the US and EU". Now you change that to the EU and Russia is more important economically than the US! So. which one is it this time???

In addition it's not just commercial trade. As Turkey has a very large Defense Industry. Which, heavily relies on Western Technology and a large number of Western Components! So, a major split with the US and Europe would have a "devastating" impact directly on the Defense Sector and the Turkish Military!

Nor, can you separate Europe from the US in regards to trade with Turkey.....
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marsavian

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 05:33

No, I said

"Turkey does more business with Russia than the US
and EU won't go along with any US sanctions." There wasn't a full stop after EU like your misquote.

Do you seriously think that EU will go along with sanctions against S-400 purchase because of the US F-35 fighter, just like the Europeans didn't follow Trump out of the JPCOA or disband Nord Stream 2 under sanctions ?!! Sorry but EU and US are currently in a trade war over Boeing/Airbus subsidies and EU are not blindly following the US economically under Trump because he is clearly America first just as they are Europe first. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU which is advantageous to the EU and they won't put that at risk over the F-35 fighter ! As for western defense technology that's yesterday's news for Turkey as it's Russia and maybe even China from now on.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 05:42

marsavian wrote:No, I said

"Turkey does more business with Russia than the US
AND EU won't go along with any US sanctions." There wasn't a full stop after EU like your misquote.

Do you seriously think that EU will go along with sanctions against S-400 purchase because of the US F-35 fighter, just like the Europeans didn't follow Trump out of the JPCOA or disband Nord Stream 2 under sanctions ?!! Sorry but EU and US are currently in a trade war over Boeing/Airbus subsidies and EU are not following the US economically under Trump because he is clearly America first just as they are Europe first


Most European NATO Members are more up-set than the US over the F-35/S400 issue. So, yes I believe "Europe" in general would support sanctions.....(US also has considerable influence)

Regardless, simple "fact" here is a split between NATO (US/Europe) with Turkey. Would be nothing short of "DEVASTATING" for the Turkish Economy, Military, and Citizens.

Now go waste someone else's time.... :?
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marsavian

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 06:00

Most European NATO Members are more up-set than the US over the F-35/S400 issue


Only the ones buying F-35 which doesn't include Germany and France which is why they are building their own stealth fighter. Try getting sanctions through the EU without those two biggest most important members, it's just not going to happen. You really should update your cold-war view of global geopolitics as it is seriously decades out of date e.g. Germany is probably friendlier with Russia these days than the US under Trump certainly economically. You might get the brexiting UK onboard with S-400 sanctions but that's your lot in Europe unless Merkel and Macron both agree and they won't. French especially could not care less if F-35's stealth is compromised, more sales for Dassault fighters then ...

p.s. the only way EU is putting sanctions on Turkey is over aggressive moves towards Greece/Cyprus as they are both part of it, not phantom S-400 sanctions which won't even happen. The split has already happened, your grey matter just hasn't registered it yet.
Last edited by marsavian on 16 Jan 2020, 06:10, edited 1 time in total.
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