The Turkey problem

Program progress, politics, orders, and speculation
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marsavian

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Unread post10 Oct 2018, 05:37

I suspect the Turks will still produce the parts even after being denied the F-35 just for economic reasons. The transition away from Turkish involvement may in the end be quite smooth because after all they are still technically a NATO ally even if they want to be more independent and free thinking in their actions.
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steve2267

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Unread post10 Oct 2018, 17:53

When I worked in the launch vehicle biz, we were always cognizant of single-points-of-failure and did our best to avoid them if at all possible. One of the reasons for the creation of United Launch Alliance was to avoid a single-point-of-failure in the US Government launch capability -- if Delta IV had an uh-oh, Atlas V could still launch payloads whilst an investigation discovered and corrected whatever went wrong on the other vehicle.

I would like to think the LM executives, being smart folks (generally) and being paid to think about these sorts of things, have some contingency plans figured out for replacing any single supplier for all the bits on F-35 if something goes hiccup. IMO, 18-24 interruption in production if the Turks have to be cut out is unacceptable, especially since this problem has been percolating -- in public -- for the past 12+ months. To me, if that is the case, some executive(s) have not been doing their job. But what do I know... I just crunched numbers.
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, add dollop of F-117 & gob of F-22, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well, then bake. Whaddya get? An F-35.
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marsavian

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Unread post11 Oct 2018, 21:46

Pastor being freed for economic relief.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... -us-pastor
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lamoey

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Unread post12 Oct 2018, 00:10

steve2267 wrote:When I worked in the launch vehicle biz, we were always cognizant of single-points-of-failure and did our best to avoid them if at all possible. One of the reasons for the creation of United Launch Alliance was to avoid a single-point-of-failure in the US Government launch capability -- if Delta IV had an uh-oh, Atlas V could still launch payloads whilst an investigation discovered and corrected whatever went wrong on the other vehicle.

I would like to think the LM executives, being smart folks (generally) and being paid to think about these sorts of things, have some contingency plans figured out for replacing any single supplier for all the bits on F-35 if something goes hiccup. IMO, 18-24 interruption in production if the Turks have to be cut out is unacceptable, especially since this problem has been percolating -- in public -- for the past 12+ months. To me, if that is the case, some executive(s) have not been doing their job. But what do I know... I just crunched numbers.


Normal monetary thinking does not apply to would be dictators, as the Turkish economy and currency is a living proof of these days. They may just as well stopp delivering parts to blackmail the rest of us.
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spazsinbad

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Unread post27 Oct 2018, 07:52

I'm hoping the full THANKSgiving comes down on this turkey:
Turkey defense minister announces timeline for S-400 deployment
[size=85]26 Oct Burak Ege Bekdil2018

"ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey will begin locally deploying the Russian-made S-400 air defense architecture in October 2019, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said Thursday....

...Akar said Turkey faces a missile threat — without naming the origin of the threat — adding that “we must counter that threat.”...

...The contract involves the acquisition of one S-400 system with an option to purchase a second system....

...Turkish defense procurement bureaucracy says the $2.5 billion S-400 system would be operated by Turkish personnel and would be supported by a locally developed identification friend or foe, or IFF, system. Turkey wants to make the S-400 a standalone system it can operate with its own source codes, including the IFF.

Turkey will have to operate the S-400 on a standalone basis because the system cannot be made interoperable with NATO and U.S. assets deployed in Turkish territory...."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/land/2018/1 ... eployment/
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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marsavian

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Unread post17 Nov 2018, 21:42

Pentagon sends Congress report on Turkey's F-35 program. Pentagon may have an 'unclassified update' about report next week, says spokesman.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/penta ... am/1313801
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spazsinbad

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Unread post05 Dec 2018, 11:57

No ‘devastating impact’ to F-35 industrial base if Turkey removed from program, says US Air Force official
04 Dec 2018 Valerie Insinna

"WASHINGTON — A potential decision by the United States to remove Turkey from the F-35 program over its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system may have only minimal impact on the fighter jet’s industrial base, a senior U.S. Air Force official said Tuesday.

President Donald Trump has yet to determine what steps the Defense Department may take if Turkey moves forward with the S-400 buy. However, Heidi Grant, the Air Force’s deputy undersecretary for international affairs, said Pentagon analysis shows there won’t be a catastrophe if Turkey is forced from the program.

“While it will have some impact on the F-35 program, I don’t think it’s going to be any type of devastating impact if … there’s a policy decision that they are no longer a partner,” Grant told reporters in a Dec. 4 roundtable interview just weeks before she puts a cap on a 16-year career with the Air Force....

...The unclassified summary of the report, ['report' not mentioned so make something up in your mind] [found a seven day old 'slow tony jobbie' here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... agon-warns ] obtained last week by Bloomberg, restated that Turkey may face expulsion from the F-35 program if the S-400 deal goes through. That outcome could influence the U.S. government’s relationship with other partner nations that have also signed on to buy the S-400, such as India or Qatar....

...Grant said she was unaware how long it would take to replace Turkey’s contributions to the F-35 program or what proposed solutions the Trump administration is offering to the country. But she fears it may be too late at this point to persuade the Turkish government to abandon the S-400 deal....

...Despite political friction between the United States and Turkey, the relationship between the countries’ militaries continues to be solid, Grant said. “Like any country, we’re going to have what I consider policy ups and downs, leadership changes at the political level that can change a relationship. But as far as the mil-to-mil relationship right now, it remains strong. They’ve been an F-35 partner since 2002, and a significant industrial-base [partner].”"

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/12 ... cial-says/

Turkey’s F-35 Role at Risk If It Buys From Russia, Pentagon Warns
29 Nov 2018 Anthony Capaccio

" - Clash is over plans to buy Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system
" - Unclassified summary of classified report sent to Congress

Turkey risks expulsion from the U.S.-led F-35 program, the world’s costliest weapons project, if its government takes delivery of an advanced Russian anti-aircraft system, according to an unclassified summary of a Pentagon report sent to Congress....

Congressional Pressure
A longer classified report examining U.S.-Turkish relations, including the F-35, was required in this year’s defense policy bill at the insistence of Senators Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, and Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat. The legislation directed that no F-35 deliveries be made to Turkey until the report was delivered, which it was earlier this month....

‘Serious Vulnerabilities’
Shaheen said in a statement that she was “pleased by the timeliness and comprehensive nature” of the Pentagon’s full, classified report, but she urged the Defense Department to “share this information with the American people.” “Limiting the availability of this report to a select group was not the intent of the law that Senator Tillis and I wrote,” she said.

As lawmakers review what steps to take now, Shaheen said it’s critical to keep in mind that the S-400 “poses serious vulnerabilities to NATO’s airspace and will present additional intelligence issues for the United States and other NATO allies, including Turkey.”..."

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... agon-warns
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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