Swiss Lightning?

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hythelday

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Unread post08 Jul 2020, 06:11

More recent news:

Swiss set date for fighter referendum
By Gareth Jennings, 26 June 2020
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... referendum

Switzerland is to hold a national referendum on its Air2030 requirement to procure new combat aircraft on 27 September.

The date, announced by the government on 26 June, will see the population decide on whether or not to proceed with a planned procurement of a new aircraft type to replace the Swiss Air Force’s ageing Northrop F-5E/F Tiger II and Boeing F/A-18 Hornet fleets. As previously reported though, the type selection itself will not be subject to a vote.

Under a previously released timeline Switzerland had planned to select a new fighter type in 2020, though this will now likely take place in 2021. Parliamentary approval and the award of funding is due in 2022, with deliveries to follow from 2025.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post08 Jul 2020, 07:41

Does anybody want to speculate on the odds of the F-35 winning the Swiss Fighter Contest. Assuming the referendum passes.........

:|
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noth

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Unread post11 Jul 2020, 02:13

hythelday wrote:More recent news:

Swiss set date for fighter referendum
By Gareth Jennings, 26 June 2020
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... referendum

Switzerland is to hold a national referendum on its Air2030 requirement to procure new combat aircraft on 27 September.

The date, announced by the government on 26 June, will see the population decide on whether or not to proceed with a planned procurement of a new aircraft type to replace the Swiss Air Force’s ageing Northrop F-5E/F Tiger II and Boeing F/A-18 Hornet fleets. As previously reported though, the type selection itself will not be subject to a vote.

Under a previously released timeline Switzerland had planned to select a new fighter type in 2020, though this will now likely take place in 2021. Parliamentary approval and the award of funding is due in 2022, with deliveries to follow from 2025.


The turnout on this referendum should be higher than usual (which is usually a good thing) because one of the other referendums/ballot initiatives is on limiting immigration by leaving Schengen. I'm expecting a near 50% turnout because of this, with many more people in favour of the armed forces voting instead of abstaining as they usually do (voter fatigue because of voting on referendums 4x a year takes it's toll, only activists and the politically aware tend to vote, giving a 35% turnout on average for referendums).
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XanderCrews

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Unread post11 Jul 2020, 18:40

excellent update. Thank you
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mixelflick

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Unread post12 Jul 2020, 16:41

Corsair1963 wrote:Does anybody want to speculate on the odds of the F-35 winning the Swiss Fighter Contest. Assuming the referendum passes.........

:|


Without knowing all the particulars (I'm assuming the usual suspects are involved), I'd say its better than 50-50. Tough to say how much Boeing could sweeten their deal with the SH, and they'll undboutedly argue the Hornet infrastructure (engines, pilot training) is already there.

I don't see them buying a Eurocanard, especially given how long they've dealt with/flown American aircraft. And if anyone in the Swiss Air Force has been paying attention/participating in Red Flag, the choice should be obvious..
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Corsair1963

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Unread post13 Jul 2020, 03:14

mixelflick wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:Does anybody want to speculate on the odds of the F-35 winning the Swiss Fighter Contest. Assuming the referendum passes.........

:|


Without knowing all the particulars (I'm assuming the usual suspects are involved), I'd say its better than 50-50. Tough to say how much Boeing could sweeten their deal with the SH, and they'll undboutedly argue the Hornet infrastructure (engines, pilot training) is already there.

I don't see them buying a Eurocanard, especially given how long they've dealt with/flown American aircraft. And if anyone in the Swiss Air Force has been paying attention/participating in Red Flag, the choice should be obvious..



I see the odds being very good for the F-35 to win in Finland. Yet, cost is a very big factor for the Swiss. At least from the point of view of the general public. Yet, I hope your right...
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ricnunes

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Unread post13 Jul 2020, 14:52

Corsair1963 wrote:I see the odds being very good for the F-35 to win in Finland. Yet, cost is a very big factor for the Swiss. At least from the point of view of the general public. Yet, I hope your right...


On the other hand if money (or being cheaper) was the most important factor for the Swiss then they would have chosen the F-16 instead of the F/A-18 back in 1990's.

If we look at the previous Swiss competition where the Gripen E 'won' due to being cheaper for some comparison then we'll have to remember that this competition was set to replace the F-5 and not the F/A-18. And since it was intended to replace solely the F-5 then it made sense back then that the smallest and cheapest was to be selected. But this competition that we're talking about is to replace the F/A-18 so I imagine that different 'metrics' will be taken into account.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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magitsu

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Unread post13 Jul 2020, 16:40

The Swiss ended up buying the most gold plated F/A-18 available. None of the others ordered titanium center barrels.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post15 Jul 2020, 05:49

ricnunes wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:I see the odds being very good for the F-35 to win in Finland. Yet, cost is a very big factor for the Swiss. At least from the point of view of the general public. Yet, I hope your right...


On the other hand if money (or being cheaper) was the most important factor for the Swiss then they would have chosen the F-16 instead of the F/A-18 back in 1990's.

If we look at the previous Swiss competition where the Gripen E 'won' due to being cheaper for some comparison then we'll have to remember that this competition was set to replace the F-5 and not the F/A-18. And since it was intended to replace solely the F-5 then it made sense back then that the smallest and cheapest was to be selected. But this competition that we're talking about is to replace the F/A-18 so I imagine that different 'metrics' will be taken into account.


My point was the Swiss Public doesn't sound to thrilled about the idea of buying a fighter in the first place. So, cost would clearly be a big factor to consider....
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ricnunes

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Unread post15 Jul 2020, 21:42

Corsair1963 wrote:My point was the Swiss Public doesn't sound to thrilled about the idea of buying a fighter in the first place. So, cost would clearly be a big factor to consider....


Or, on the other hand and even if the Swiss Public isn't thrilled about the idea of buying a fighter then I believe that it's possible that if the decision to buy a new fighter aircraft is to go ahead (which it needs since even their Hornet fleet is aging) that it is perceived that it's better to purchase a good or even the best fighter instead of buying some 'cheaper patchwork'.

Note that it was the same the Swiss Public that voted in a referendum against purchasing the Gripen E, the aircraft which was the cheaper of that competition.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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madrat

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Unread post16 Jul 2020, 01:30

The Swiss would probably be happy with a T-50 trainer offshoot if it comes down to raw cost.

For hardly any more budget they could get F-16's with some street cred.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post16 Jul 2020, 07:10

In short nobody has any idea who will win........ :?
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swiss

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Unread post20 Aug 2020, 18:01

First poll is out.

It looks good for the new Fighter. 58 % yes vs 39 % no. And normally the yes share increases in a referendum until the vote.

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... flugzeugen

At the moment, voters want to vote with a majority of 58 percent, or rather in favor of the purchase of new combat aircraft worth 6 billion francs. This is shown by the trend survey by gfs.bern on behalf of SRG SSR. The vote will take place on September 27th.

39 percent of the voters are certain or rather against the purchase of new combat aircraft. Only three percent of those questioned are still undecided. According to the research institute gfs.bern, which carried out the survey, this speaks in favor of “medium to highly advanced opinion-forming”.

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eagle3000

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Unread post27 Sep 2020, 17:46

58% Yes? Not so much.
50.1% of voters say yes to new fighter jets. 8670 votes make the difference.

https://translate.google.ch/translate?h ... -kampfjets

With that in mind, I would say the cheapest options still in the race have the best chances now.
Cheapest in perception that is.
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noth

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Unread post27 Sep 2020, 19:09

eagle3000 wrote:58% Yes? Not so much.
50.1% of voters say yes to new fighter jets. 8670 votes make the difference.

https://translate.google.ch/translate?h ... -kampfjets

With that in mind, I would say the cheapest options still in the race have the best chances now.
Cheapest in perception that is.


Turnout was remarkably high considering the Covid19 crisis. 59.3% nationaly is the highest I've seen it in decades for referendums. At least we can move forward now, and hopefully choose the best, but I doubt it'll be what fans here would like.

The chosen aircraft and SAM system will be announced in June 2021. There may yet be ANOTHER referendum on the chosen plane, I do hope not though.
Last edited by noth on 27 Sep 2020, 20:01, edited 1 time in total.
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