Swiss Lightning?

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XanderCrews

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Unread post17 Jun 2019, 06:30

gc wrote:Not exactly a respectable source seeing how they sensationalise known F-35 issues recently. But it provides a glimpse of the swiss perspective. Seems like SAAB is spinning it their way on the removal of the Gripen from the competition.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... raft-race/



Swiss just trying to save them further embarrassment.
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mixelflick

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Unread post17 Jun 2019, 13:23

To me, this sets the tone for every "competition" the Gripen will enter.

If it can't win in a country known to be looking (only) at light fighters, what kind of competition can it win?
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loke

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Unread post17 Jun 2019, 13:34

mixelflick wrote:To me, this sets the tone for every "competition" the Gripen will enter.

If it can't win in a country known to be looking (only) at light fighters, what kind of competition can it win?

You are wrong. The Swiss air force is clearly preferring a larger fighter.

AFAIK one of the main reason Gripen was declared "winner" in the first round was becausel it could fit within the budget, whereas Rafale and Typhoon did not. IF they had been cheaper at the time then most likely they would have won the previous round. If you had read the leaks you would have seen that Rafale/Typhoon were clearly preferred based on technical eval alone. However when other factors were added like costs (and industrial offsets?) then Gripen became the winner. So it won the previous round not because it was a light fighter but in spite of being a light fighter. I hope you see the difference ;)

This time around both F-35 and SH participate. Both will be cheaper than Rafale/Typhoon. F-35 will also be much more capable than any of the others. F-35 will win, SH will be second, and will only win if some weird political aspect should pop up and kill the F-35 (like happened previously in Canada).

Rafale will be third and will only win if some weird politics should kill both F-35 and SH...
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XanderCrews

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Unread post17 Jun 2019, 16:30

loke wrote:
mixelflick wrote:To me, this sets the tone for every "competition" the Gripen will enter.

If it can't win in a country known to be looking (only) at light fighters, what kind of competition can it win?

You are wrong. The Swiss air force is clearly preferring a larger fighter.

AFAIK one of the main reason Gripen was declared "winner" in the first round was becausel it could fit within the budget, whereas Rafale and Typhoon did not. IF they had been cheaper at the time then most likely they would have won the previous round. If you had read the leaks you would have seen that Rafale/Typhoon were clearly preferred based on technical eval alone. However when other factors were added like costs (and industrial offsets?) then Gripen became the winner. So it won the previous round not because it was a light fighter but in spite of being a light fighter. I hope you see the difference ;)

This time around both F-35 and SH participate. Both will be cheaper than Rafale/Typhoon. F-35 will also be much more capable than any of the others. F-35 will win, SH will be second, and will only win if some weird political aspect should pop up and kill the F-35 (like happened previously in Canada).

Rafale will be third and will only win if some weird politics should kill both F-35 and SH...


its good feel vindicated after all the Gripen fans who assured me for years that it was picked in Switzerland based purely on performance and technical merit, and lost their minds when I said it was simply picked based on budget and the Swiss preferred other options, while the F-35 won only on politics everywhere it went of course.


8)

Nice to see the Narrative finally bend toward what I was saying all along, and no one wanted to hear.

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fbw

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Unread post17 Jun 2019, 17:00

@Loke- I seriously doubt the F-35 will be chosen by the Swiss. EU is in full court press for partners choosing European defense solutions. This time I also doubt we will be privy to the scores on the evaluation. Hopefully, some synopsis will be released prior to decision being announced, but I am sceptical. I’ve long thought Rafale is/was preferred choice before competition was even launched.
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Unread post17 Jun 2019, 17:42

fbw wrote:@Loke- I seriously doubt the F-35 will be chosen by the Swiss. EU is in full court press for partners choosing European defense solutions. This time I also doubt we will be privy to the scores on the evaluation. Hopefully, some synopsis will be released prior to decision being announced, but I am sceptical. I’ve long thought Rafale is/was preferred choice before competition was even launched.

Switzerland is not part of EU...

I may be wrong but I think cost will play a very important role (together with capabilities). This points in the direction of F-35, or, as stated previously, if F-35 must be excluded due to politics, the SH. However if politics dictates that European solution must be selected then yes of course Rafale will be the obvious choice.

Anyway, Belgium recently picked the F-35... Unlike the Netherlands, Belgium was not an F-35 partner -- and in addition the "capital" of EU is located in Belgium! In spite of all of this, neither France nor the Eurofighter partners managed to convince Belgium. I am not sure why Switzerland would be easier to influence than Belgium?
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Unread post17 Jun 2019, 17:45

XanderCrews wrote:its good feel vindicated after all the Gripen fans who assured me for years that it was picked in Switzerland based purely on performance and technical merit, and lost their minds when I said it was simply picked based on budget and the Swiss preferred other options, while the F-35 won only on politics everywhere it went of course.


8)

Nice to see the Narrative finally bend toward what I was saying all along, and no one wanted to hear.

Not sure who you are talking about -- I have been clear on this for many years now that Gripen won the "first round" in Switzerland not on capabilities but on costs (and perhaps also industrial offsets.) That should be clear to anybody who has seen the leaked evaluations, and they have been around for quite some time.
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ricnunes

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Unread post17 Jun 2019, 18:37

loke wrote:
fbw wrote:@Loke- I seriously doubt the F-35 will be chosen by the Swiss. EU is in full court press for partners choosing European defense solutions. This time I also doubt we will be privy to the scores on the evaluation. Hopefully, some synopsis will be released prior to decision being announced, but I am sceptical. I’ve long thought Rafale is/was preferred choice before competition was even launched.

Switzerland is not part of EU...

I may be wrong but I think cost will play a very important role (together with capabilities). This points in the direction of F-35, or, as stated previously, if F-35 must be excluded due to politics, the SH. However if politics dictates that European solution must be selected then yes of course Rafale will be the obvious choice.

Anyway, Belgium recently picked the F-35... Unlike the Netherlands, Belgium was not an F-35 partner -- and in addition the "capital" of EU is located in Belgium! In spite of all of this, neither France nor the Eurofighter partners managed to convince Belgium. I am not sure why Switzerland would be easier to influence than Belgium?


I agree with what loke said above.
Moreover if Switzerland chooses the F-35 then it wouldn't be the first time that it chooses a top US-Fighter (F/A-18) instead of an European fighter aircraft.
A 4th/4.5th gen fighter aircraft stands about as much chance against a F-35 as a guns-only Sabre has against a Viper.
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fbw

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Unread post17 Jun 2019, 19:45

loke wrote:
fbw wrote:@Loke- I seriously doubt the F-35 will be chosen by the Swiss. EU is in full court press for partners choosing European defense solutions. This time I also doubt we will be privy to the scores on the evaluation. Hopefully, some synopsis will be released prior to decision being announced, but I am sceptical. I’ve long thought Rafale is/was preferred choice before competition was even launched.

Switzerland is not part of EU...

I may be wrong but I think cost will play a very important role (together with capabilities). This points in the direction of F-35, or, as stated previously, if F-35 must be excluded due to politics, the SH. However if politics dictates that European solution must be selected then yes of course Rafale will be the obvious choice.

Anyway, Belgium recently picked the F-35... Unlike the Netherlands, Belgium was not an F-35 partner -- and in addition the "capital" of EU is located in Belgium! In spite of all of this, neither France nor the Eurofighter partners managed to convince Belgium. I am not sure why Switzerland would be easier to influence than Belgium?


True Switzerland is not part of the EU, they have bilateral agreements that allow them access without having to follow EU regulations on things such as taxes (while also contributing funds for EU projects, agreeing to EU free movement agenda up until the 2014 referendum, etc.) The possible termination of these agreements is in the news right now. But I do think the EU push for European defense initiatives will weigh on the Swiss decision, and suspect there will be back channel pressure to this effect “you want continued access to the EU common marketplace, and we are your biggest trade partners”.
Edit- The current German government’s rejection of the F-35 and cashiering of outspoken General, as well as (admittedly lukewarm) support for European defense fund is problematic, and while Typhoon would seem to be a bit of a long shot for air2030... there are two entries supplied by European defense corporations.

Belgium is at least a NATO member so the choice of the F-35 makes sense politically, and in regards to their defense posture. Not to mention, Belgium chose the F-35 before Germany and France started squawking “buy European”.

Anyway, just my gut feeling.... they will choose a Rafale.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post17 Jun 2019, 21:11

loke wrote:
XanderCrews wrote:its good feel vindicated after all the Gripen fans who assured me for years that it was picked in Switzerland based purely on performance and technical merit, and lost their minds when I said it was simply picked based on budget and the Swiss preferred other options, while the F-35 won only on politics everywhere it went of course.


8)

Nice to see the Narrative finally bend toward what I was saying all along, and no one wanted to hear.

Not sure who you are talking about -- I have been clear on this for many years now that Gripen won the "first round" in Switzerland not on capabilities but on costs (and perhaps also industrial offsets.) That should be clear to anybody who has seen the leaked evaluations, and they have been around for quite some time.


Youre not sure who? have you never actually encountered other Gripen fans on the internet? Go hand out around Best Fighter for Canada. Correct them as much as possible, no one else can
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ricnunes

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Unread post18 Jun 2019, 11:47

fbw wrote:Not to mention, Belgium chose the F-35 before Germany and France started squawking “buy European”.


Well the "buy European" squawking/pressure was certainly present and targeted at Belgium well before it decided to buy the F-35, namely by the French. If you recall, there was a very strong pressure by the French towards Belgium to buy the Rafale - They even got to the point of by-passing Belgium's competition and directly offer the Rafale with a bunch of supposed industrial offsets.
I would say that so far Belgium was probably the country in the west that suffered more pressures from an external country (France in this case) to buy a certain fighter aircraft.

fbw wrote:Anyway, just my gut feeling.... they will choose a Rafale.


I don't know and I kind doubt it. If look at the previous Swiss competition (the one that the Gripen NG "won") the Rafale was rejected because of cost/pricetag. And since then the Rafale didn't get any cheaper.
And since it's known that the F-35 is cheaper (not to mention far more capable) than the Rafale...
A 4th/4.5th gen fighter aircraft stands about as much chance against a F-35 as a guns-only Sabre has against a Viper.
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Unread post18 Jun 2019, 11:51

The problem with this "EU pressure" idea is that Eurofighter is also in the competition. First, I do not believe "EU pressure" exists to any meaningful extent in the first place, second even if it does - which plane is preferred by "EU pressure"?
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loke

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Unread post19 Jun 2019, 16:14

I think Switzerland would react quite negatively to any "EU pressure". The only thing Dassault/Eurofighter can do, is to put together a package that is very attractive in terms of ToT and massive industrial offsets; common training, perhaps common maintanence, etc.

Still I think cost will be very important and therefore I believe F-35 will be the most likely winner, with SH the runner-up. One challenge for the F-35 on the cost side is that operational costs are still quite high, and this could potentially kill the F-35. OTOH it is much more capable so probably fewer F-35 will be needed compared to SH or Rafale. Typhoon I think will be out...
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XanderCrews

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Unread post20 Jun 2019, 03:18

loke wrote:I think Switzerland would react quite negatively to any "EU pressure". The only thing Dassault/Eurofighter can do, is to put together a package that is very attractive in terms of ToT and massive industrial offsets; common training, perhaps common maintanence, etc.

Still I think cost will be very important and therefore I believe F-35 will be the most likely winner, with SH the runner-up. One challenge for the F-35 on the cost side is that operational costs are still quite high, and this could potentially kill the F-35. OTOH it is much more capable so probably fewer F-35 will be needed compared to SH or Rafale. Typhoon I think will be out...



SH got discluded on the first round because it woudn't fit into their mountainside hangars.

F-35s are compact:

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not saying anything either way, just saying
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rheonomic

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Unread post20 Jun 2019, 03:50

What are the odds the procurement goes through this time instead of getting cancelled in a referendum?
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