Taiwan still hoping to buy F-35 fighters from U.S.

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KamenRiderBlade

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Unread post07 Apr 2016, 05:25

Taiwan won't get the F-35B, the risk of having valuable intel on the F-35 or even an actual F-35 stolen is a high risk by placing it in Taiwan. As a Taiwanese American, I would HIGHLY advise AGAINST selling anything 5th gen and beyond to Taiwan.

The Harrier is the perfect hand me down solution to Taiwan.

End of argument.
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madrat

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Unread post07 Apr 2016, 10:42

There is no defense if it can be assailed in any form. A perfect defense is the only way to preserve Taiwan. Better for Taiwan to ally itself with China's less friendly rivals, regardless it means striking deals with old rivals.

Taiwan could probably bridge regional rivals in the region to cooperate on military, political, and domestic matters. Vietnam is everything, but officially working with Taiwan. The Singapore military is the only (albeit unofficial) working ally of the ROC, so that has to be improved. Taiwan needs to aggressively counter the One China political campaign of the mainland if it's going to make any headway. Participating in RIMPAC each year would certainly help.

But F-35 IMHO is a no go on too many levels
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zerion

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Unread post20 Mar 2017, 17:21

Taiwan Prepared to Build its Own Aircraft Carrier to Scare-off China

http://www.chinatopix.com/articles/1125 ... z4bsouGK1D
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PhillyGuy

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Unread post20 Mar 2017, 19:20

While it would be nice to quip Taiwan with a few squadrons of F-35Bs, I do not think the added capability will make that much of a difference. When the enemy is that close, has you surrounded, vastly outnumbered and outgunned, stealth and VTOL are of little use.

Given the massive multi axis, multi domain and multi platform initial shower of cruise and ballistic missiles that will strike Taiwan, followed by an equally massive and multitude of air and sea power/assets, expecting the Taiwanese air force or navy to last more than a few days is unrealistic. Much less deny China air and sea superiority in the local battle space.

But this is not a fatal blow, as the Chinese can fly and sail all they want above and around Taiwanese territory, without landing massive amount of troops and equipment and waging a land battle within Taiwan, they won't achieve a damn thing. No one has ever won a war or seized and held land by launching missiles and performing bombing runs without boots on the ground.

This is Taiwan's strength. All they have to do is weather the initial blitz of ordinance and munitions and the destruction they cause, and overwhelmingly confront and destroy Chinese infantry whether amphibious or airborne from a position of strength and defense and with likely heavier armor/weapons.

If they can deny China a landing for a few days that's all the time needed for the Chinese to lose surprise, momentum and advantage as the international cavalry arrives ready to mop up the skies and waters of Chinese forces.

That's why if I was Taiwan, forget F-35s, I would ask for hundreds of land based cruise missiles, anti ship missiles, anti tank missiles and surface to air systems. Not only to hold off the Chinese horde, but to strike the mainland and inflict some pain in return. Let's see how Chinese citizens react to their cities being bombed due to hostile agression and land grabs.
"Man will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest."
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KamenRiderBlade

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Unread post01 Apr 2017, 21:13

Taiwan needs a fleet of modernized Midget Submarines to sink China's Naval fleet.

Taiwan is small enough that a fleet of ~100 Midget Submarines would wreck havoc with China's navy.

Then they need a decent IADS and to get some Harriers.
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madrat

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Unread post01 Apr 2017, 22:19

Offer them F-15C rebuilds on lease. Pay for the USAF upgrades with the markup.
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arian

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Unread post02 Apr 2017, 02:37

The "Chinese spies" thing goes both ways. Taiwan has a huge asset base in China and Taiwanese companies are very important in China's economy. There's lots of Taiwanese in China too, and they run large portions of China's high-tech industry. So they too are in a position to gather information on China.

China, if anything, is much more susceptible to information leaking to foreigners than the other way around given both its concentration of population and military assets, and its dependence on foreign companies and foreign managers of these companies.

As for Taiwan and F-35, purchasing 5th gen fighters in meaningful numbers is a very expensive proposition. Especially when US bases with F-35s are only 600km away in either direction, and USN carriers can be anywhere as needed. Taiwan's defense, in my opinion, needs to be a component of the overall strategy of containing China, not necessarily a stand-alone do-it-all defense force. Taiwan can't sustain that. But it can be an important link between the US forces in the Pacific.

That, so far, seems to be the strategy Taiwan has followed by allowing US radars on the Island, focusing on SAM and ground-based defenses, and naval defenses. More Patriot missions, more anti-ballistic capabilities, more modern radars, more ASW capability and anti-ship capability would be the best bet for Taiwan. Let the US handle the expensive 5-th gen fighter stuff.

More training with the US and Japan would be helpful to make sure Taiwanese forces are integrated into the US/Japan alliance better (not sure the degree of training that goes on right now between these forces. I hope its substantial)

Of course that would depend on the whims of whichever political force is in Washington, but unfortunately for Taiwan there's not much else to chose from. Unless it can get into closer military cooperation with Japan and South Korea.

In any case, I don't see a war with China brewing anytime soon. Taiwan and China are pretty tied economically and there's no reason for China to want to end that relationship. There's nothing to gain for China, other than sanctions risking conflict with its neighbors, and drawing its neighbors into an even greater arms race.
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Unread post02 Apr 2017, 10:54

The reality is China understands force. The only peace with Taiwan is because of our force. It has absolutely no sentimental reason not to invade Taiwan. If the U.S. waivers even one bit they will invade.
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Unread post05 Apr 2017, 09:24

http://www.the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003615320

U.S. mulls F-35s for Taiwan deal

By Seima Oki and Yuko Mukai

WASHINGTON/ TAIPEI — The United States is considering a new package of arms sales to Taiwan, sources said. Multiple sources close to the bilateral matter revealed that the United States would sell the weapons to Taiwan as early as this summer. Among the weapons are cutting-edge fighter jets, which past U.S. administrations did not allow to be sold to Taiwan. The arms package could be worth the highest amount ever. U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida on Thursday and Friday, seeking to build upon their bilateral relationship. During telephone talks with Xi in February, Trump showed a flexible stance on the “one China” policy, over which Beijing had been nervous, agreeing to maintain the status quo.

Regarding Taiwan, meanwhile, with which past U.S. administrations have kept good terms, Trump seems to be keeping the balance by strengthening the commitment in defense through weapons sales. According to the sources, the White House will start full-scale deliberations on supplying Taiwan with the weapons package after the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting. Working-level discussions between Washington and Taipei likely have already kicked off behind the scenes, the sources said. According to a former senior official at the U.S. State Department who is well-informed of the deliberation process, cutting-edge F-35 stealth fighter jets and the most advanced missile defense system are under consideration. As F-35 fighter jets are expensive and have advanced strike capabilities, the United States is also considering the possibility of selling upgraded F-16 fighter aircraft.

Even after severing its diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979, past U.S. administrations have sold weapons for defense purposes to Taiwan in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, a U.S. law that stipulates maintaining commercial and cultural ties with Taiwan. The administration of former U.S. President Barack Obama decided to sell weapons three times between 2010 and 2015, worth $14 billion in total. However, taking China into account, the administration did not include the cutting-edge fighter jets, submarines and Aegis destroyers that Taiwan sought in the arms packages. During the Trump-Xi meeting this week, the “one China” policy also will likely be one of the topics for discussion, according to sources.
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steve2267

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Unread post05 Apr 2017, 14:52

Previous posts have noted the espionage risk of selling F-35 technology to Taiwan. There is also the poking the (panda) bear part of selling F-35s to China.

But sales of upgraded F-16s would seem to help Taiwan, and keep the US production line open in the US.

Heck, why not sell the ASH to Taiwan. That keeps Boing happy, doesn't it? The ASH's lack of long legs should be a selling point to the mainland, since the ASH shouldn't be nearly as much of an offensive threat like the F-35.

Could the tired old AV-8's and F/A-18A/B/C/D/Es from the US Navy be sold to the Taiwanese, but stand up re-work centers in Taiwan to re-build / SLEP the planes at a fraction of the price of new ones?

Throw in some Arleigh Burkes with AEGIS, PAC-3 and THAAD batteries and Taiwan would seem to have a big middle finger for air defense. Now if Taiwan could only afford a bunch of German Type 212 (or 214/216/218) AIP subs...

(Tongue slightly in cheek)
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arian

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Unread post05 Apr 2017, 23:19

steve2267 wrote:Throw in some Arleigh Burkes with AEGIS, PAC-3 and THAAD batteries and Taiwan would seem to have a big middle finger for air defense. Now if Taiwan could only afford a bunch of German Type 212 (or 214/216/218) AIP subs...

(Tongue slightly in cheek)


Taiwan has already ordered 7 PAC-3 batteries and some have already been delivered. They are also designing their own Aegis-equipped ship, which I agree with you is critical for Taiwan. Taiwan also hosts a US long-range anti-ballistic missile radar on the island, so it is somewhat integrated with US anti-ballistic missile efforts.
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steve2267

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Unread post05 Apr 2017, 23:50

7 PAC-3 batteries sounds like a good start. Doesn't sound like enough, but I don't know how many would be enough.

In addition to PAC-3, Aegis-ashore with SM-6B and/or THAAD would seem to be in order. If China has developed a carrier killing conventionally armed ballistic missile, me thinks they wouldn't hesitate to use something like that against Taiwan as well.

KBR made an interesting comment about "hundreds of midget" subs. I'm unsure that a midget sub would be very effective, but those German Type 212 AIP subs and derivatives (Type 214/216/218) all only have a crew of about 27, are fairly small (200' long, 1500 tons), deathly quiet, and appear to punch way above their weight. At about $333M apiece, though, not sure how many Taiwan could afford (nor how many would be required to throw a major monkey wrench in mainland China's attack plans.)
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Unread post06 Apr 2017, 05:17

Clearly, Trump is just pulling China's chain. As no way would the Congress ever allow the sale of F-35's to Taiwan. :doh:
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Unread post06 Apr 2017, 09:24

Look at how many precision munitions we've dropped on ISIS, yet they are still trucking around. If the Taiwanese are determined to fight, it will take a lot more than missiles to take it down. I'd wager China will have a very hard time sustaining their attack after the first week.

However, I also don't think Taiwan needs the F35, at least for now.
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blindpilot

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Unread post06 Apr 2017, 15:48

citanon wrote:Look at how many precision munitions we've dropped on ISIS, yet they are still trucking around. If the Taiwanese are determined to fight, it will take a lot more than missiles to take it down. I'd wager China will have a very hard time sustaining their attack after the first week.

However, I also don't think Taiwan needs the F35, at least for now.


I think we need to be cautious comparing how we (the west) fight wars, and how Russia/China/N Korea fight wars. Just watch Syria. The Russians think nothing of carpet bombing hospitals. In fact, it appears to be a part of the strategy. With total destruction approaches, Syria and Russia have made quicker progress than we and our allies have. Sherman did have a valid point.

But I agree, and think the rattling of F-35 is just to make it less conflict when we sell them the F-16V.

Just saying,
BP
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