Finnish DefMin interested in F-35s, not Gripens

[hornetfinn]

About the capability assessment of the Finnish project.

Some highlights:

"If a candidate can provide the required supply and training system with less resources than others, it can allocate resources to increasing the military capability or lowering the upkeep costs.
For the former this may enable extra investment into the amount or quality of armament, sensors and EW systems. For the latter, provider can for example increase the amount of spare equipment and supplies in their package."

https://pastebin.com/eJkkms0r

The original in Finnish: http://ilmavoimat.fi/artikkeli/-/asset_ ... havittajan

That was a good description of the evaluation process from now on. I ran it through Google tranlate and it seems to make pretty good job in translating that article. I'm really looking forward to see how this evaluation unfolds...

[loke]

I'm really looking forward to see how this evaluation unfolds...

I agree it will be interesting to follow the process -- but it will not be very exciting, we already know the outcome...

[f4u7_corsair]

frequently violates Finnish air space

Once last year.

There are undetected overflights the Russians have run doing low-level reconnaissance in central Finland.

Pure fantasy...

an impressive AWACS and systems air defense network that has never existed for the Baltic region before

If you exclude Swedish, NATO and US assets (which are all close Finland partners), then yes, of course.
Finnish ground-based radar coverage is actually surprisingly good.

They also have the country populated with Russian ex-pats (...)

Russian influence operations is something acknowledged and certainly dealt with.

Sounds like you mixed Tom Clancy with a bit too much of the wrong kind of medication. You're describing a near-state of war. Russia is no innocent, but the situation is far more normalized than what you seem to believe.

[Corsair1963]

Why anyone would want to buy a 4th Gen + aircraft now when they can get the F-35 defies logic, especially when France, Germany, and Sweden are all scrambling to develop 5th Gen aircraft now.

The Rafale is a far superior system to the Gripen, and even France realizes they are behind the curve with the advent of the F-35. If Sweden is working on Flygsystem 2020, it makes no sense at all for Finland to waste her time with 4th Gen that will have to face Su-27, Su-30, or Su-35S out of the Saint Petersburg region. 6th Leningrad Air and Air Defence Forces Army works out of that area and frequently violates Finnish air space.

F-35s would not only provide a superior air dominance solution for Finland, but an impressive AWACS and systems air defense network that has never existed for the Baltic region before. There are undetected overflights the Russians have run doing low-level reconnaissance in central Finland.

They also have the country populated with Russian ex-pats who provide covert strategic reconnaissance, disinformation, on-call sabotage, and counter-resistance to the Finnish active reserves. Russians have purchased tons of real estate near Finnish military bases under cover of civilian status.

It would be great for Finland to track Su-27 flights out of 6th Leningrad Air and park up next to them for intercept when they violate Finnish airspace, shut off their comms with Ground Controllers back in Russia, let them know their antics aren't going to fly anymore.

Finland has express interest in acquiring the F-35 in the past. So, I think the odds are petty good they she will ultimately select the Lightning.

Also, considering Finlands close proximity to Russia. Could we see her select the STOVL F-35B over the Conventional F-35A???

[Corsair1963]

I'm really looking forward to see how this evaluation unfolds...

I agree it will be interesting to follow the process -- but it will not be very exciting, we already know the outcome...

Honestly, I think the JSF Program and the US Government should be pushing for Free and Open Fighter Competitions in cases like Germany and Canada. As the F-35 will surely win.....(and put to bed any controversy)

[magitsu]

They start by planning the best capability package with each candidate. So FiAF and the manufacturer both put their mind to it.

First the packages have to meet the minimum requirement in the other parts of the evaluation (e.g. sec of supply, life cycle cost). If they are money-wise more efficient (than others), they can add more spares, improve quantity or quality sensors/weapons etc. to the package.

Then they enter the military capability assesssment which is ultimately a wargame that goes on for several runs of flights.
Counter-air the most important scenario, because they can get engaged in that fashion in all of the other scenarios as well.
The other scenarios are counter-land (air to ground), counter-sea (air to sea), intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), airspace control and targeting, and long-range strike.

The scenario based evaluation measures performance in set missions and their sub-parts instead of verifying single requirements.

The growth potential assessment used to assess whether the ranking will change when the capability increase described in their development plans is taken into consideration.

Just take a read through the artcle, it's highly detailed:
https://pastebin.com/eJkkms0r

Probably no F-35B due to considering the need for a high number of frames vs. questionable extra utility of stovl against lesser payload, more cost. There would also be no neighbor-related synergies. Norway bought F-35A and their state company Kongsberg purchased 49,9% of Finnish state co Patria a year ago. Patria does the Hornet, Hawk and CASA C-295 maintenance and is the key domestic company in the field. So there's an obvious incentive there as well.

[loke]

As said before, the F-35 is such a much better deal than the others that there will be no excitement.

I am struggling to see why Dassault and Eurofighter bother to participate. They are both more expensive and less capable, in particular the Typhoon has many weak points. Why would anybody pay more to get less (unless there is a political angle)

I am also not sure why Boeing is bothering with this. Roughly the same cost but much less capable.

The only thing that can prevent F-35 from winning would be some very surprising political development over the next few years, that would compell Finland to buy European instead of US. For instance if Trump is pulling the US out of Europe/NATO, and the EU responds with creating their own defence alliance. Perhaps then the pressure from Brussels would become too big for Finland to ignore.

Otherwise, I do not see this happening.

[magitsu]

Perhaps it would be seen as cowardice to back away from the one competition that is surely in depth and without too much "rigging" already in place in form of F-35 partnership and alike?

Or they might expect that F-35 could fail in the security of supply and industrial participation (30%) requirements. Because if the F-35 makes into the military capability assessment everybody else is toast.
Though I believe everybody is expected to be able to make it since FiAF will negotiate the packages until they fit the minimum requirement for the other parts of the eval.

Complex things. Like in terms of quasi-alliances the UK has JEF which needs cooperation. France is trying to build their own PRY, which would lose a lot of its already anemic appeal if they suddenly didn't believe in their main product. Finland is already in the former and is slightly unlikely to join the latter due to not really giving a sh*t about former French colonies in Africa.

Maybe the companies themselves think long term. Many of them have other bids in, for example Boeing is trying to sell Harpoons to the Finnish corvette project. Eurofighter doesn't have anything other to sell and Dassault is quite dud too (except subcontractor Thales, which has their paws on all of the FiAF's radars).

[hornetfinn]

I think taking part in this competition is absolute necessity for all the companies as it's one of the largest competitions and it'd be very difficult to not take part as there are no real excuses available. Finland is politically very neutral country and has no stake in any of the programs unlike for example Denmark or Norway had. I'd say that making a good showing would significantly increase chances of selling their products to some other countries even if they didn't win Finnish order. There are other possible future competitions and procurement processes like Switzerland, Canada, Germany, Spain and UAE for example.

[talkitron]

Here are my thoughts on why companies / countries other than Lockheed & the USA participate in fighter competitions against the F-35.

1. Domestic politics can swing politicians against the F-35. We have seen that in Canada. In Belgium, the Typhoon marketing emphasizes it as the choice for European unity, something the Belgians may care about.

2. Related to domestic politics, the companies other than the F-35 may involve greater offset agreements. Domestic defense contractors can be influential in defense procurement.

3. The Middle East is, remarkably, still buying Rafales, Typhoons, Eagles and Super Hornets. If a competitor acknowledged the superiority of the F-35, the Middle Eastern countries might skip that company in favor of a competitor. Allegedly the UAE / Abu Dhabi crown prince really wants the F-35. We will see.

[f4u7_corsair]

Complex things. Like in terms of quasi-alliances the UK has JEF which needs cooperation. France is trying to build their own PRY, which would lose a lot of its already anemic appeal if they suddenly didn't believe in their main product. Finland is already in the former and is slightly unlikely to join the latter due to not really giving a sh*t about former French colonies in Africa.

French IEI is not a counterpart to JEF. Nor IEI is a tool to draw European assets to Africa.
Oh, and Finland has 200 soldiers (out of 300-ish) under French command in UNIFIL/FCR.

Or they might expect that F-35 could fail in the security of supply and industrial participation (30%) requirements.

Well it very well could. Finland is much more attentive to that, since it is nor a NATO member, nor a US puppet. So far, every F-35 buyer ticks either of these two boxes (and even if they do.... you know what current discussions on Turkey & F-35 are about).

[loke]

3. The Middle East is, remarkably, still buying Rafales, Typhoons, Eagles and Super Hornets. If a competitor acknowledged the superiority of the F-35, the Middle Eastern countries might skip that company in favor of a competitor. Allegedly the UAE / Abu Dhabi crown prince really wants the F-35. We will see.

Wrong -- the main reason why those rich ME countries are buying Typhoon/Rafale is because they want to have equipment from both Europe and the US.

Also wrong from another perspective -- the reason why F-15/SH are being sold in the ME and not F-35 is not because there is a lack of "acknowledged superiority" but simply because Israel and the Jewish lobby in the US are blocking sales of F-35 to ME countries (apart from Israel itself of course). Had the ME countries been allowed to buy F-35 then they would have done so, instead of F-15/SH. They may still have bought Rafale/Typhoon in addition of course (see paragraph above).

[magitsu]

Yeah, they are allowed to buy better than US stock 4 gen fighters and cruise missiles. Even the cruise missile part is questionable, but has worked out because UK/France doesn't have qualms about selling theirs.

[hornetfinn]

3. The Middle East is, remarkably, still buying Rafales, Typhoons, Eagles and Super Hornets. If a competitor acknowledged the superiority of the F-35, the Middle Eastern countries might skip that company in favor of a competitor. Allegedly the UAE / Abu Dhabi crown prince really wants the F-35. We will see.

Wrong -- the main reason why those rich ME countries are buying Typhoon/Rafale is because they want to have equipment from both Europe and the US.

Also wrong from another perspective -- the reason why F-15/SH are being sold in the ME and not F-35 is not because there is a lack of "acknowledged superiority" but simply because Israel and the Jewish lobby in the US are blocking sales of F-35 to ME countries (apart from Israel itself of course). Had the ME countries been allowed to buy F-35 then they would have done so, instead of F-15/SH. They may still have bought Rafale/Typhoon in addition of course (see paragraph above).

I'd say F-15 and SH are sold in the ME because they are what Boeing has for sale. Besides, F-35 is being considered for being available for at least UAE and Saudi Arabia. Other countries there have just received their brand new Rafales and Eurofighters and are not really active in seeking new aircraft, except maybe Egypt. There is really no urgent need to sell F-35 in that part of the world.

[talkitron]

Wrong -- the main reason why those rich ME countries are buying Typhoon/Rafale is because they want to have equipment from both Europe and the US.

Also wrong from another perspective -- the reason why F-15/SH are being sold in the ME and not F-35 is not because there is a lack of "acknowledged superiority" but simply because Israel and the Jewish lobby in the US are blocking sales of F-35 to ME countries (apart from Israel itself of course). Had the ME countries been allowed to buy F-35 then they would have done so, instead of F-15/SH. They may still have bought Rafale/Typhoon in addition of course (see paragraph above).

I didn’t state what you say twice is “wrong”. Indeed I agree with your claims.