Finnish DefMin Interest in F-35s NOT Gripens

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popcorn

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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 00:00

I think Rogoway doesn't realize the Finns take their security a tad more seriously than the Canadians and for good reason. :devil:

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/unprec ... 1758221233


...As with Canada, the Super Hornet, especially in its mature form, would be the most logical choice for Finland as conversion would be simplified to a large degree compared to its competitors. And because Finland likes to be able to operate its fighters in austere and harsh environments, the Gripen E/F would also be a good choice.
Since Finland does not primarily use its fighter force for expeditionary warfare, the high-end capabilities and stealth technology seen of the F-35 would be hard to justify.
"When a fifth-generation fighter meets a fourth-generation fighter—the [latter] dies,”
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smsgtmac

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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 04:40

popcorn wrote:I think Rogoway doesn't realize the Finns take their security a tad more seriously than the Canadians and for good reason. :devil:
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/unprec ... 1758221233
Since Finland does not primarily use its fighter force for expeditionary warfare, the high-end capabilities and stealth technology seen of the F-35 would be hard to justify.

Memo to Ty: When you live next door to Russia, you don't need to be 'expeditionary' to find an area denial IADS, IT FINDS YOU. And it probably extends over your own airspace to boot.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 04:45

popcorn wrote:I think Rogoway doesn't realize the Finns take their security a tad more seriously than the Canadians and for good reason. :devil:

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/unprec ... 1758221233


...As with Canada, the Super Hornet, especially in its mature form, would be the most logical choice for Finland as conversion would be simplified to a large degree compared to its competitors. And because Finland likes to be able to operate its fighters in austere and harsh environments, the Gripen E/F would also be a good choice.
Since Finland does not primarily use its fighter force for expeditionary warfare, the high-end capabilities and stealth technology seen of the F-35 would be hard to justify.


I understand that Tyler Rogoaway is so stupid I feel like he should have a handicap sticker, but even for him this is retarded.

Beyond the timeline for the Super Hornet being in doubt, Its already been mentioned here that the Gripen is not the primary choice, and the F-35 not fitting with the Finns "for expeditionary warfare, the high-end capabilities and stealth" is pure fallacy, because Finnish fighters may be in SAM range the moment they take off being in such close proximity to Russia. Survivability and capability are always popular, not just for fighting away from home.

If, as the original post in this thread says, the F-35 ends up being the same cost as the Gripen, then the F-35 should be the choice. And the latest USAF SAR and JPO statements ae certainly making that seem to be the case. In fact the F-35 may well be cheaper to buy.


This is ridiculously poorly researched even for Tyler. He actually could have read this whole 11 page thread complete with links and written a more factual article. Christ he could have read a f**king map, and figured this out
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hornetfinn

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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 08:53

Exactly. S-300 and S-400 systems can reach very deep inside Finnish territory and can cover over half of Finnish territory. And if Russia gets PAK-FA or even Su-35S to service, then the high-end capabilities and stealth technology would be rather nice to have. Of course having ability to collect ISTAR information close to enemy is invaluable in the event of war. No 4th gen fighter can do that, but F-35 can.

Btw, I warmly welcome F-15s and their crews to Finland! Anyone know how 123rd Fighter Squadron F-15C/Ds are equipped?
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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 09:26

hornetfinn wrote:Exactly. S-300 and S-400 systems can reach very deep inside Finnish territory and can cover over half of Finnish territory. And if Russia gets PAK-FA or even Su-35S to service, then the high-end capabilities and stealth technology would be rather nice to have. Of course having ability to collect ISTAR information close to enemy is invaluable in the event of war. No 4th gen fighter can do that, but F-35 can.

Btw, I warmly welcome F-15s and their crews to Finland! Anyone know how 123rd Fighter Squadron F-15C/Ds are equipped?

How certain is the possiblity that you'll get the F-35? There was an article that even reached newspapers here in Estonia, about Finnish ex-prime minister openly pitching Gripen for Finland here (equivalent of say Bush or Kissinger doing it in the US). As well as some finnish-swedish bloggers here. IMO he seems quite unaware of the progress and capabilities of the F-35 (considering his previous posts). Perhaps hornetfinn you'd find time to educate him a bit?

He seems influential enough to pay visits to Gripen factory, yet he doesn't come off as outright fallacious fanboy, rather uninformed. He seems to know naval stuff well enough and considering his credentials (that he posts openly) imo it would be worth a try.
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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 10:04

In the blog post there was also a mention of a confidential study for the HX program. The abstract however is public:
http://www.defmin.fi/puolustushallinto/ ... utkimukset
Can someone translate it ? Google translate seems to do a really poor job at it.

From my own poor FinnishI understand, it mostly focuses on the viability of Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) radar systems in the 2030+ timeframe. I hope they are not oversimplifying the simulations to use these reports as a holy grail for selecting Gripen (never mind the kinematic and other deficiencies compared to the F-35) :|
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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 11:20

Last summer I had a conversation with a family member who happens to be a seasoned Finnish Air Force Hornet pilot and we briefly discussed about the new fighter acquisition program. I didn't want to push him to say anything that could be even remotely classified, but I was clear that the pilots would prefer the F-35. The Russians are now fielding (in low numbers) advanced jets (Su-35 etc.), and fourth gen 90's jets would not suffice in the future, especially when Russia starts fielding it's own fifth gen fighters.

He did not have high remarks about the Gripen in general, and we both were concerned that some of the politicians might want to make the selection a political decision instead of letting the Air Force select the winner by itself (like it was allowed to do last time when we selected the F/A-18C/D).

Anyways, the Gripen E is basically a longer ranged Gripen C with a new AESA radar. That's what it is. It could have been OK choice in 2005 (if it had existed) instead of the Super Bug if we had made a selection then, but we are now selecting a new fighter for 2025 - 2055 time frame. None of the fourth gen jets are future proof enough for us.
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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 12:30

"Since Finland does not primarily use its fighter force for expeditionary warfare, the high-end capabilities and stealth technology seen of the F-35 would be hard to justify."

Logic and weasel words of a used car salesman.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 12:34

gideonic wrote:In the blog post there was also a mention of a confidential study for the HX program. The abstract however is public:
http://www.defmin.fi/puolustushallinto/ ... utkimukset
Can someone translate it ? Google translate seems to do a really poor job at it.

From my own poor FinnishI understand, it mostly focuses on the viability of Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) radar systems in the 2030+ timeframe. I hope they are not oversimplifying the simulations to use these reports as a holy grail for selecting Gripen (never mind the kinematic and other deficiencies compared to the F-35) :|


Google translate is very poor with Finnish language as Finnish is rather difficult for artificial translation mainly due to being highly synthetic language (lots of morphemes, basically diverse language) which is opposite to English which is analytic language (not many morphemes, basically straightforward language and easy for artificial translation.

That link is about a study done about significance of stealth technology in the future. The study did concentrate on differences of 4th gen and 5th gen fighters as seen by MIMO radars. The study was done using computer simulations only but given the parties who did the study, the simulation was likely as good as it gets. The study itself is confidential, so it's not published but the summary does give some clues about the end results. It says that MIMO radar can offer improved detection/tracking probability against stealth fighter target and it was said that they got up to 30 percent improvement in tracking probability against stealth fighter using MIMO radars. It was however highly dependant on where exactly the transmitters and receivers were located and what flight path the target had. It was also found out that lower frequencies give longer detection range against stealth fighters, just as expected. It was also noted that having just detections or tracking by low frequency radar is not enough for air defences if stealth aircraft can not be engaged effectively. From the summary I get the feeling that 5th gen fighter still exhibits healthy advantage against 4th gen fighters even against MIMO and low frequency radars, although the advantage might not be nearly as large as against high frequency radars. It was noted also that computer simulations can not accurately take into account the effects of RAM and external weapons because simulations always have certain simplifications.

It was noted that additional studies will be done to support Finnish fighter acquisition process.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 12:45

barrelnut wrote:Last summer I had a conversation with a family member who happens to be a seasoned Finnish Air Force Hornet pilot and we briefly discussed about the new fighter acquisition program. I didn't want to push him to say anything that could be even remotely classified, but I was clear that the pilots would prefer the F-35. The Russians are now fielding (in low numbers) advanced jets (Su-35 etc.), and fourth gen 90's jets would not suffice in the future, especially when Russia starts fielding it's own fifth gen fighters.

He did not have high remarks about the Gripen in general, and we both were concerned that some of the politicians might want to make the selection a political decision instead of letting the Air Force select the winner by itself (like it was allowed to do last time when we selected the F/A-18C/D).

Anyways, the Gripen E is basically a longer ranged Gripen C with a new AESA radar. That's what it is. It could have been OK choice in 2005 (if it had existed) instead of the Super Bug if we had made a selection then, but we are now selecting a new fighter for 2025 - 2055 time frame. None of the fourth gen jets are future proof enough for us.


I've been involved in exercises where Gripens have taken part and they are definitely no wonder-fighters some people make them to be. They are solid fighters but let's say that I have not heard a single Finnish fighter pilot willing to swap their F/A-18C/Ds for Gripens and I've talked to a number of them.
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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 13:23

hornetfinn wrote: ...
It was noted that additional studies will be done to support Finnish fighter acquisition process.

Thank you very much for the translation and synopsis!
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hornetfinn

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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 13:31

gideonic wrote:How certain is the possiblity that you'll get the F-35? There was an article that even reached newspapers here in Estonia, about Finnish ex-prime minister openly pitching Gripen for Finland here (equivalent of say Bush or Kissinger doing it in the US). As well as some finnish-swedish bloggers here. IMO he seems quite unaware of the progress and capabilities of the F-35 (considering his previous posts). Perhaps hornetfinn you'd find time to educate him a bit?

He seems influential enough to pay visits to Gripen factory, yet he doesn't come off as outright fallacious fanboy, rather uninformed. He seems to know naval stuff well enough and considering his credentials (that he posts openly) imo it would be worth a try.


None of these opinions have any influence to Finnish fighter selection process. I'm sure Finnish selection process will be very thorough and also transparent and best option for us will be selected by military. I don't see politicians in Finland being able to overturn the selection made by military personnel unless two candidates are very close to each other. While Gripen and Finnish-Swedish military co-operation has support in Finland, I doubt these will affect the selection process at all. I see so many things going for F-35 that I'd be really surprised if anything else gets selected. Maybe if Swedes give us Gripen Es for free... :mrgreen:
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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 16:02

I've seen the comments section of tyler's articles and he doesn't even believe that the u.s. needs the f-35, so why would he think that Finland does? He must really not give the russians any credit for their S.A.M. technology and their new fighters. The thing is once you start losing jets and pilot's, you're going to wish you bought that "high end stealth capability"
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krorvik

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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 21:10

hornetfinn wrote:Exactly. S-300 and S-400 systems can reach very deep inside Finnish territory and can cover over half of Finnish territory.


I've served in the Norwegian Army, monitoring the russians deploy S-300 within visual range from the border. They can most certainly take out targets well within norwegian airspace too.

Our F16's would be sitting ducks.
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Unread post15 Feb 2016, 23:21

krorvik wrote:
hornetfinn wrote:Exactly. S-300 and S-400 systems can reach very deep inside Finnish territory and can cover over half of Finnish territory.


I've served in the Norwegian Army, monitoring the russians deploy S-300 within visual range from the border. They can most certainly take out targets well within norwegian airspace too.

Our F16's would be sitting ducks.


If you can see them then artillery would be already aimed at them. Surely the Russian are just trying to rattle the cage.

I hope the Finns do go for the F35. I think it is starting to scare the Russians by the sheer scale of the numbers of 5th gen aircraft they will have aimed at them.
Last edited by meatshield on 16 Feb 2016, 00:52, edited 1 time in total.
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