Finnish DefMin Interest in F-35s NOT Gripens

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hornetfinn

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Unread post30 Jul 2020, 06:20

lbk000 wrote:This is so significantly deviating from the thread topic you really ought to have made your own thread.


Agreed. I will not respond to that here as it's too much off-topic. Maybe bear21 can create another topic or reuse some other for that topic as it's very interesting.

Anyway, it seems like all the HX candidate companies will be present in Kauhava Air Show at the end of August.
https://www.kauhavaairshow.com/

Currently Dassault Rafale is the only one which has been confirmed to fly in the show but I bet others will follow especially as almost all air shows around the world have been cancelled this year. Of course if Covid situation worsens suddenly in Finland, this one will likely be quickly cancelled. Currently everything looks good though.
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jessmo112

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Unread post03 Aug 2020, 21:40

viewtopic.php?f=33&t=4408&p=421461&hilit=F+135+engine+spray+blocker#p421461

From a simple search.
The French Airforce pails in comparison to the size of the PLAAF but has more tankers.
I don't want to ever hear or see a Chinese troll boast about the power of rising China, EVER again.
The truth is that after the 1st day of the war when all of the forward islands are gone and every air base withing 100 miles of the SCS is hit the Chinese are finished.
F-22s will hunt every tanker.
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loke

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Unread post04 Aug 2020, 20:09

jessmo112 wrote:http://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=4408&p=421461&hilit=F+135+engine+spray+blocker#p421461

From a simple search.
The French Airforce pails in comparison to the size of the PLAAF but has more tankers.
I don't want to ever hear or see a Chinese troll boast about the power of rising China, EVER again.
The truth is that after the 1st day of the war when all of the forward islands are gone and every air base withing 100 miles of the SCS is hit the Chinese are finished.
F-22s will hunt every tanker.

???

I don't see the relevance of China's lack of tankers to the Finnish competition? Perhaps you are in the wrong thread?
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spazsinbad

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Unread post13 Aug 2020, 21:16

Covid-19: Finland announces delay to HX acquisition process
12 Aug 2020 Charles Forrester

"Finland’s Ministry of Defence announced on 11 August that there would be a delay to the issuing of best-and-final-offer (BAFO) requests to replace the country’s fleet of Boeing F/A-18C/D Hornet aircraft under the HX programme.

As a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic and the need to adhere to strict guidelines to prevent transmission of the virus, BAFO requests are to be issued either later this year or at the beginning of next year, according to a statement issued by the HX programme office. The fourth round of negotiations and performance evaluations with the five bidders for the programme – BAE Systems, Boeing, Dassault, Lockheed Martin, and Saab – are to continue between September and November, and will be maintaining compliance with the Finnish government’s Covid-19 restrictions and guidelines.

The BAFO requests were anticipated to be issued in August, for submission by the end of the year. The final contract is still expected to be agreed in 2021...." [bit more at URL]

Source: https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... on-process
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magitsu

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Unread post14 Aug 2020, 08:35

580 million euros was included in the MoD 2021 budget. It'll be used to build the infrastructure needed for new fighters, in addition to covering the cost of hiring temporary staff and other project-related expenditure, including the purchase of expert services from domestic companies and organizations.

It's treated as separate from the fighters, so we're not 100% sure if it's part of the 10 Bn spending. Likely it is. For the fighter acquisition, 900 million euros is allotted to 2021 MoD budget. This will feature again for several years (and 1st billion already made to the previous budgets to convince the bidders it's real), but the infrastructure one might not repeat.

Since the fighter pick hasn't been done, there's no rush to compare to specifically other countries' F-35 base building costs. But that amount probably tries to take into account even the most costly one.

https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-200000 ... cd8241bec0
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spazsinbad

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Unread post18 Aug 2020, 22:24

Finland’s $12 billion fighter plan dodges the post-pandemic budget axe
18 Aug 2020 Gerard O'Dwyer

"HELSINKI – The Finnish government’s budget proposal for 2021 has allayed concerns of delays or reduced funding for the Armed Forces’ (FAF) HX Fighter Program. The plan will effectively increase the military’s budgetary framework in 2021 by $2 billion to $5.8 billion to meet phase one of the project’s procurement costs....

...the 2021 budget both protects and moves forward the $12 billion national security capital investment. The HX Fighter Program will have a “substantial effect” on the FAF’s budgetary position and finances from 2021, said the HX Program’s Director, Lauri Puranen....

...Phase two of the HX project is currently underway. This is focused on the content of the procurement in respect to each individual bidder. A request for best and final offers will be sought at the end of the second phase of negotiations in the fourth quarter of 2020, and ahead of a government decision on selection in the first half of 2021.

Although the 2021 budget has secured project-specific funding for the HX Fighter Program, the overall fragile state of Finland’s national finances threatens to curtail capital increases to other areas of defense, including training and multi-branch field exercises, in that year...."

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... udget-axe/
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Corsair1963

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Unread post19 Aug 2020, 00:09

Good News as the F-35 is favored to win....... :wink:
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magitsu

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Unread post19 Aug 2020, 09:15

It manages to be slightly wrong. BAFO will be sent by the end of the year/early 2021 and selection has slided to the back end of 2021 from original Q1/H1. Like the Janes article in spazsinbad's previous post described.

O'Dwyer generally gets something wrong each time. Which is surprising since he's located in Finland unlike Forrester, Hunter, Jennings etc.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post19 Aug 2020, 09:39

Indeed and luckily for us, we have been one of the least affected country in Europe by the Covid-19. Hope that it stays that way and we can keep our economy working full time. I'm actually really surprised how the whole HX program has gone so far, especially politically and financially. Very good that we can muster enough money for a pretty credible acquisition.

I'm sure F-35 will easily win the capability evaluation and other contenders try to compensate with other aspects. Especially "Security of supply and the domestic industry’s role" (especially the domestic industry's role) and "Security and defence policy impacts" (EU) areas of importance as it will be very competitive on costs. I bet Gripen will be the cheapest option but also easily the least capable oveall.
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loke

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Unread post19 Aug 2020, 11:58

magitsu wrote:O'Dwyer generally gets something wrong each time. Which is surprising since he's located in Finland unlike Forrester, Hunter, Jennings etc.

I agree -- I still remember his articles from the Norwegian fighter competition some years ago, always some errors in his reporting...
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magitsu

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Unread post19 Aug 2020, 15:47

hornetfinn wrote:I'm sure F-35 will easily win the capability evaluation and other contenders try to compensate with other aspects. Especially "Security of supply and the domestic industry’s role" (especially the domestic industry's role) and "Security and defence policy impacts" (EU) areas of importance as it will be very competitive on costs. I bet Gripen will be the cheapest option but also easily the least capable oveall.

Yeah, but since the previous steps are only pass/fail, they don't matter after the F-35 manages to get into the performance evaluation. Since it's the only area that will be ranked. "Optimization towards performance" is the official term. Different packages require different amount of resources in the previous steps, leaving more or less money for the performance step.

So they will be of same cost, each will have satisfying sec of supply / industrial co-op. Just the total performance within the Finnish defensive system (amount of sorties x attrition/survivability) will be different.

It'll be interesting to see whether any fails to get into the final performance eval. I'd imagine there's slight hesitation not to fail a competitor before it, but it's possible. Though even if it happens, we might not learn about it any time soon.

Here's a translation for the HX performance evaluation article:
https://pastebin.com/eJkkms0r
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spazsinbad

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Unread post19 Aug 2020, 21:04

Ten page PDF of the 'pastebin' HX performance evaluation article above attached.
Attachments
Finding suitable multi-role fighter for the Finnish defence - Pastebin.com.pdf
(399.47 KiB) Downloaded 121 times
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Corsair1963

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Unread post20 Aug 2020, 03:35

How would an F-35 win in Finland effect sales of the type within Europe???
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magitsu

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Unread post20 Aug 2020, 08:19

Corsair1963 wrote:How would an F-35 win in Finland effect sales of the type within Europe???

Not very meaningful. Many Euros have already concluded this era's acquisition. For Gripen it's the last hurrah, it's likely dead for every non-Gripen user unless Finland buys (they can continue selling GlobalEye to ME/SEA and T-7). For Rafale it could also be a strong reference, or rather for French security policy visions.

EF already has enough references and German acquisition is purely about their domestic politics contrasted with nuke sharing that makes US fighter obvious. I don't see Growler featuring in other competitions beyond Germany. Logically it should've in Canada but as we know they don't really follow logic. Super Hornet could be viable for the Indian navy, where they are currently testing it with the ski jump. Upselling Growler after that could be possible, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.
Switzerland is bit more likely to pick Rafale than Finland, but Finland and/or Germany SH pick could work to SH's advantage in their competition. There the biggest hurdle is probably still the referendum.

Finnish and Norwegian states already share the company that maintains the Finnish and Norwegian helicopters and jets (also the Norwegian F-35). So that's very convenient as one might say. :wink:

What the Finnish F-35 sale could amplify is the image of it being more independent in operation than is currently believed. That area's threat libraries would also improve significantly due to Finland's location.

Similarly while a F-35 loss would be the first of its kind for it, the Finnish competition is unique enough (Growler, GlobalEye, strong security of supply requirement) that it could be downplayed. Though definitely it would be also exploited for mud raking.

Many procurement activities aren't only about fighters themselves. For example India and Japan are looking for tech transfers. Brazil wanted to make/design jets themselves and the US option was luckily played out. So Finnish win/loss probably means even less in these cases.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post20 Aug 2020, 09:55

That makes a lot of sense and few customers for new fighters regardless. The big loss for NATO is Germany passing on the F-35 and sadly for political reasons. So, while many don't like Trump. He has been right about a great many things.... "IMHO"


With Germany being a perfect example.....Well, hopefully things will change with the next German Government??? :|
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