Pressure increases on [Canada] to stay or leave F-35 program

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archeman

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Unread post19 Mar 2019, 18:31

XanderCrews wrote:
My point is, no matter how dumb the liberals are, they are too cheap to do anything that foolish. We saw the interim super hornet bust.


Well it depends on their REAL goal.
I would bet at this stage that they clearly are not interested in replacing their air defense.
They are more interested in maintaining their political points with their fan base.
F-15X serves that purpose very well. They are not really going to buy those but it does give them the power to kick that non-F35 option(non-option really) around and not actually make any decision at all. They only have to wait out the clock till the October elections and make it look like they are doing something.
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mixelflick

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Unread post20 Mar 2019, 12:47

archeman wrote:
XanderCrews wrote:
My point is, no matter how dumb the liberals are, they are too cheap to do anything that foolish. We saw the interim super hornet bust.


Well it depends on their REAL goal.
I would bet at this stage that they clearly are not interested in replacing their air defense.
They are more interested in maintaining their political points with their fan base.
F-15X serves that purpose very well. They are not really going to buy those but it does give them the power to kick that non-F35 option(non-option really) around and not actually make any decision at all. They only have to wait out the clock till the October elections and make it look like they are doing something.


This makes as much sense as anything I've read in this thread. Personally, I'm looking forward to artist conceptions of F-15X's sporting Canadian Maple Leafs. Given all of the other non-starters, throwing F-15X into the mix will just up the entertainment factor. In fact, I'd say Canada's fighter acquisition process is starting to pull away from India as the #1 funniest thing going on in military aviation today.

The only thing missing here is the big top music and the Super Arrow :)
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ricnunes

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Unread post21 Mar 2019, 21:41

mixelflick wrote:OK, but the F-86 and Starfighter were a LONG time ago. And how many Starfighters did they lose in accidents, something on the order of 50%?!? Since then, they seem to have changed their thinking considerably.


The accident rate of the Canadian F-104 fleet was absolutely in no way related to the aircraft having a single engine only.
The reasons for this were basically the following:
1- The aircraft (F-104) which was designed as an high altitude interceptor was used by the Canadian Forces has a low altitude bomber aircraft. Resuming, the Canadians used the F-104 in completely opposite task to which the aircraft was designed for.
2- The fact that it took too long for the Canadians to replace the F-104 (and now, history repeats itself) also didn't help in any way its accident rate. Resuming, old equipment/aircraft are way more prone to crash compared to new aircraft and this is independent of the number of engines that the aircraft may have.


mixelflick wrote:As far as the liberal gov't sanctioning combat use/investment in the F-35 program. Maybe. But they're also the same liberal gov't that snubbed the F-35. Their past behavior/decision making is no barometer of what they'll do in the future. In fact, Canada's behavior is (at times) absolutely bizarre.


Again, this is only history repeating itself (in Canada). Or do you think that the Canadian F/A-18 purchase in the early 1980's went smoothly and without any derails and second doubts at the political level??
If you do then read the following:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Fight ... ft_Project

While the negotiations with McDonnell Douglas were continuing, Air Canada announced it was purchasing the Lockheed L-1011 to add to its wide-body fleet. This greatly angered James Smith McDonnell, the Chief Executive Officer of McDonnell Douglas, who personally threatened to cancel his company's participation in the NFA project.[5] Neither DND and DSS wanted this to happen, and wanted both the F-16 and F/A-18 aircraft to remain in contention for the NFA project. However, these concerns were later muted when a report was leaked that suggested the F/A-18 was favoured to win the NFA project, and it appeared that the DITC's concerns were going to be overridden. As a result, McDonnell Douglas became much less vocal about the Air Canada purchase.[5]

Contract negotiations went on throughout 1978 and 1979, continuing through two federal elections. The proposed contracts were finalized by June, when then new Progressive Conservative Party of Canada formed a minority government. A lengthy review of the contracts followed, and was completed in early December. These were tabled to be signed off on December 14, however, on the 13th the Progressive Conservative government failed a vote of non-confidence and the NFA project was set aside. The Liberal Party of Canada was elected to a majority government in the ensuing elections, and on February 19, 1980 formal negotiations for the NFA project started again.


Sound familiar, eh?

Or watch the following "gem". When watching the following video, I invite you to watch it with your eyes closed or resuming to listen the video's audio only and everytime you hear the words "F/A-18" or "Hornet", replace them in your mind with "F-35":


Again, too familiar, eh?


mixelflick wrote:Which is why I think the F-15X buy is at least plausible.

People here have outlined very logical reasons why the F-15X wouldn't be the best choice. Problem is, Canada has proven anything but logical. Buying 2nd hand retro 80's Hornets sounds like a punch line, not the best fighter for Canada..


The problem is that you're focused on the "mess" that the Canadian military procurement's indeed are (no discussion here) but you fail to acknowledge that most of the times - specially when it comes to fighter aircraft - the end result is that Canada buys what's expected which is the best multi-role aircraft possible for the best/cheaper price/cost possible and for the desired capabilities and there's only one fighter aircraft that can meet such criteria which is again, the F-35! (yeah, the stealth aircraft).
That "Buying 2nd hand retro 80's Hornets" seems to support everything what I've been saying about the subject which is that the clear winner is the F-35. And why?
Because "Buying 2nd hand retro 80's Hornets" is only a "stalling" measure to buy extra time so that the current government doesn't have to buy any new fighter aircraft and that the decision to buy the new fighter aircraft - which is the F-35 - is delayed to the next term or government.
A 4th/4.5th gen fighter aircraft stands about as much chance against a F-35 as a guns-only Sabre has against a Viper.
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mixelflick

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Unread post22 Mar 2019, 12:48

Perhaps.

You make some good points, but I would say it's anything but certain at this point they buy the F-35. I hope they do. It seems to check all the boxes. But something politically precluded them from pulling the trigger the first time. It just makes me wonder if they won't do it again.

They have a very robust field: Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon, F-35, Gripen. One might argue F-15X. I think the sleeper is Rafale. Very capable multi-role, some signature reduction measures, two engines (whether you believe 2 engines is a favored point). Going to be expensive but what of these options isn't?

Egypt,Quatar and India have selected Rafale and in India's case, I believe with local production/tech transfer? If they pitched the same deal to Canada, I wouldn't under-estimate the impact of such..
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Unread post22 Mar 2019, 14:10

mixelflick wrote:Perhaps.

You make some good points, but I would say it's anything but certain at this point they buy the F-35. I hope they do. It seems to check all the boxes. But something politically precluded them from pulling the trigger the first time. It just makes me wonder if they won't do it again.

They have a very robust field: Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon, F-35, Gripen. One might argue F-15X. I think the sleeper is Rafale. Very capable multi-role, some signature reduction measures, two engines (whether you believe 2 engines is a favored point). Going to be expensive but what of these options isn't?


Who is they? Canaduh? The topic of this thread? How can Raffy be a "sleeper" if Dassault dropped out? Or did they announce they're back in? Or am I just confused?
Take an F-16, stir in A-7, dollop of F-117, gob of F-22, dash of F/A-18, sprinkle with AV-8B, stir well + bake. Whaddya get? F-35.
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magitsu

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Unread post22 Mar 2019, 19:34

steve2267 wrote:Who is they? Canaduh? The topic of this thread? How can Raffy be a "sleeper" if Dassault dropped out? Or did they announce they're back in? Or am I just confused?

Indeed. Dassault is a small company compared to the others. They're wisely not taking part in Canada and Poland where there's little chance of success. Canadian procurement already failed to complete the acquisition of French radars (which are in high demand by their peers, so the pick wasn't wrong any more than in the case of F-35).
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada ... -1.3145196
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ricnunes

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Unread post22 Mar 2019, 21:29

mixelflick wrote:You make some good points, but I would say it's anything but certain at this point they buy the F-35. I hope they do. It seems to check all the boxes.


Yes, I agree that nothing is "set on stone" yet. However like you acknowledged all the "check boxes" or the vast majority of them are on the F-35 side (and by far).

mixelflick wrote:But something politically precluded them from pulling the trigger the first time. It just makes me wonder if they won't do it again.


Well, like you can read in my previous post it wouldn't be the first time that Canada selected something and then "pull the trigger" from it and then to select it again. Again as you can read in my last post, this happened with the Canadian F/A-18 acquisition in the early 1980's.


mixelflick wrote:They have a very robust field: Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon, F-35, Gripen. One might argue F-15X. I think the sleeper is Rafale. Very capable multi-role, some signature reduction measures, two engines (whether you believe 2 engines is a favored point). Going to be expensive but what of these options isn't?

Egypt,Quatar and India have selected Rafale and in India's case, I believe with local production/tech transfer? If they pitched the same deal to Canada, I wouldn't under-estimate the impact of such..


I believe you missed the fact that Dassault removed the Rafale from the Canadian competition.
So, now you have Super Hornet, Typhoon, F-35 and Gripen in the Canadian competition and I honestly expect that Saab will soon follow Dassault and remove the Gripen from this competition as well.

The Rafale would never stand a chance in the Canadian competition because:
1- It's not an American aircraft. The next Canadian fighter aircraft will be American (due to NORAD compatibility and all...).
2- The Rafale is more expensive than the F-35. Even more considering that Canada is a JSF member and as such it as access to purchase the F-35 at a cheaper price, this compared to non-JSF nations such as Japan or Belgium.

So technically the only fighter aircraft that have a chance in the Canadian competition would be either the F-35 or the Super Hornet. The current Canadian government and Boeing relations means that the F-35 is an even stronger contender compared to any other competitor.
In theory the Typhoon could have some (slim) chances since again in theory, at least it should be "compatible" with US equipment and assets but then again the Typhoon is much more expensive than the F-35.
A 4th/4.5th gen fighter aircraft stands about as much chance against a F-35 as a guns-only Sabre has against a Viper.
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icemaverick

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Unread post22 Mar 2019, 22:24

Also, the Rafale would require new weapons. The F-35 would at least be compatible with much of what Canada already has in its arsenal.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post22 Mar 2019, 22:27

mixelflick wrote:Perhaps.

You make some good points, but I would say it's anything but certain at this point they buy the F-35. I hope they do. It seems to check all the boxes. But something politically precluded them from pulling the trigger the first time. It just makes me wonder if they won't do it again.




Its purely politics. The guy who promised to not buy the F-35 won the election. Your trying to apply logic to a foolhardy (And contradictory as he also pledged a "fair and open" Competition) political promise. One that's become so obviously bad they screwed up their "interim emergency" and are now buying used Legacy Hornets. its an utter farce. In the meantime Canada has nothing except for busted aussie jets, a pilot exodus, and the F-35 going into operation with all 3 variants, full rate production this year, and even more sales in the meantime.

Its not some grand conspiracy, or some nuanced decision based on strategic and tactical needs of the RCAF, Its just a retarded leaf at the helm steering the RCAF into an iceberg because he promised Canada he would.

Which is the scary part, because no one her in Theme Park America can figure out if this guy is just incompetent or deliberately sabotaging, because his decisions are so terrible, people believe he must be doing it on purpose.

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Unread post23 Mar 2019, 12:15

Did not know Rafale was out, thanks for letting me know.
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Unread post23 Mar 2019, 13:45

Great picture of a Canadian 'Rainbow Warrior'.
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Unread post23 Mar 2019, 15:28

A Canadian Beto.
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Unread post28 Mar 2019, 01:33

Once again, the federal budget turns a blind eye to Canada's military needs

By David Krayden

Last week’s federal budget offered relatively modest spending with targeted funding after years of spending from a government that seemed to believe the deficit will solve itself. Unfortunately, the Canadian Armed Forces again escaped the finance minister’s gaze and for the second consecutive year, national defence is conspicuous by its absence from the budget.

You might recall the fanfare when Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan released the Liberals’ defence policy review in 2017: “Strong, Secure, Engaged.” It was already more than six months overdue and there was a feeling among defence analysts and most journalists that the Liberals had to deliver a document that suggested serious resolve.

Sajjan promised a whopping 70-per-cent increase in defence spending, pledging to drive funding up to $32.7 billion from $18.9 billion. Naval ships, combat-support vehicles and 88 fighter jets would be replaced through “an open and transparent competition.”

But there was one large disclaimer. All of this would happen over the next decade, assuming the realities of 2017 would remain constant during that period. How well would any government have done predicting the military needs of 1942 based on the geopolitics of 1932?


https://nationalpost.com/opinion/once-a ... tary-needs
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XanderCrews

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Unread post28 Mar 2019, 04:29

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Unread post28 Mar 2019, 12:58

Going to be expensive evaluation.

To remedy that, I propose sending them this entire 348 page thread. Because at this point I'm confident we've flushed out every detail (and then some) they otherwise would. Boy wonder (if he's still there) can point out how much $ Canada saved, and finally, perhaps someone up there would get that point that the most capable and inexpensive aircraft = winner.

Somehow, they keep missing that. :mrgreen:
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