Pressure increases on [Canada] to stay or leave F-35 program

[slowman.]

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/201 ... -military/

John Ivison: F-35 purchase may force Conservatives to chop infantry battalion from cash-strapped military

The on-going hostilities are likely to flare up as the new minister is forced to make some unpalatable decisions on resource allocation, including the possibility of reducing the size of Canada’s 68,000 regular forces by chopping one or more of its nine infantry battalions.

http://o.canada.com/2013/08/15/0816-col-dentandt/

Fighter-jet contract may be punted beyond next election
Published: August 15, 2013, 1:53 pm

Be that as it may, whatever the government’s past rationale, the tide appears to have turned. There is now an expectation within defence industry circles that the government intends to either announce a competition for the fighter contract sometime early next year, or defer the matter until after the 2015 election, or a combination of both. If the fix was in, it no longer is.

It is also posited that Canada could eventually choose to stay within the international F-35 consortium to buy a much smaller number of planes than the original 65 — say 20 — and open up the remainder of the contract to international bids, which could mean a mixed fleet. Such a course would allow the Harper government to cover its bases politically, but would also be costly and controversial. Mixed fleets are notoriously expensive to operate, due to the doubling up on maintenance, training, parts and the like.

Why the change of heart? The theory making the rounds in Ottawa is two-fold. First, members of the caucus and cabinet are acutely aware that they need good-news stories, or at least the absence of more bad news stories, as they head into the pre-election period. Second, in the context of U.S. President Barack Obama’s continuing chilliness towards the Keystone XL Pipeline, there is a new determination at senior levels of the government to put Canadian industrial regional benefits first, and cut the best deal possible, for the best plane, at the best price, with the greatest economic benefit to Canada.

[XanderCrews]

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/08/14/john-ivison-f-35-purchase-may-force-conservatives-to-chop-infantry-battalion-from-cash-strapped-military/

John Ivison: F-35 purchase may force Conservatives to chop infantry battalion from cash-strapped military

The on-going hostilities are likely to flare up as the new minister is forced to make some unpalatable decisions on resource allocation, including the possibility of reducing the size of Canada’s 68,000 regular forces by chopping one or more of its nine infantry battalions.

http://o.canada.com/2013/08/15/0816-col-dentandt/

Fighter-jet contract may be punted beyond next election
Published: August 15, 2013, 1:53 pm

Be that as it may, whatever the government’s past rationale, the tide appears to have turned. There is now an expectation within defence industry circles that the government intends to either announce a competition for the fighter contract sometime early next year, or defer the matter until after the 2015 election, or a combination of both. If the fix was in, it no longer is.

It is also posited that Canada could eventually choose to stay within the international F-35 consortium to buy a much smaller number of planes than the original 65 — say 20 — and open up the remainder of the contract to international bids, which could mean a mixed fleet. Such a course would allow the Harper government to cover its bases politically, but would also be costly and controversial. Mixed fleets are notoriously expensive to operate, due to the doubling up on maintenance, training, parts and the like.

Why the change of heart? The theory making the rounds in Ottawa is two-fold. First, members of the caucus and cabinet are acutely aware that they need good-news stories, or at least the absence of more bad news stories, as they head into the pre-election period. Second, in the context of U.S. President Barack Obama’s continuing chilliness towards the Keystone XL Pipeline, there is a new determination at senior levels of the government to put Canadian industrial regional benefits first, and cut the best deal possible, for the best plane, at the best price, with the greatest economic benefit to Canada.

So one article about how the F-35 will cost Canada an infantry battalion and another article talking about how Canada hasn't officially adopted the F-35?

[slowman.]

So one article about how the F-35 will cost Canada an infantry battalion and another article talking about how Canada hasn't officially adopted the F-35?

Well, the first article explains what happens if Canada buys all 65 F-35s, and the second article explains Canada's options to prevent that, namely 20 F-35s + 45 winners of an open bid contest.

[XanderCrews]

So one article about how the F-35 will cost Canada an infantry battalion and another article talking about how Canada hasn't officially adopted the F-35?

Well, the first article explains what happens if Canada buys all 65 F-35s, and the second article explains Canada's options to prevent that, namely 20 F-35s + 45 winners of an open bid contest.

in which they explain that is the more expensive option:

Such a course would allow the Harper government to cover its bases politically, but would also be costly and controversial. Mixed fleets are notoriously expensive to operate, due to the doubling up on maintenance, training, parts and the like.

[cantaz]

At this rate, we're more likely to chop our subs before we chop a battalion. The subs are on shaky ground as is, and once the Aurora needs replacing, the Navy and Air Force are going to go head-to-head on whether there's enough money for both airbreathing and subsurface ASW/maritime patrol.

[popcorn]

in which they explain that is the more expensive option:

True and this approach is doubly advantageous for the F-35. It guarantees a firm order for a quantity of the jets and means that an open bid for additional units can leverage investments made to support the initial order.

[luke_sandoz]

The quality of Canadian journalism is lower than a snake's belly in a wheel rut.

Monumentally stupid journalists that are so clueless about what they are writing they redefine brain dead.

[slowman.]

in which they explain that is the more expensive option:

True and this approach is doubly advantageous for the F-35. It guarantees a firm order for a quantity of the jets and means that an open bid for additional units can leverage investments made to support the initial order.

My understanding is that it is really 45 + 20, that is the open bid competition for 45 units come first, followed by a 20 unit CF-35 orders in the 2020s.

[XanderCrews]

in which they explain that is the more expensive option:

True and this approach is doubly advantageous for the F-35. It guarantees a firm order for a quantity of the jets and means that an open bid for additional units can leverage investments made to support the initial order.

My understanding is that it is really 45 + 20, that is the open bid competition for 45 units come first, followed by a 20 unit CF-35 orders in the 2020s.

You do realize this is all some journalists' theory for a political strategy. I know to you theory is as good as fact, but just because I write something that says a healthy Canadian strategy is 1000 F-35s with 250 bought ever leap year doesn't mean anything official.

This garbage about "the F-35 is costing infantry" is completely dishonest. Its not the F-35 that is "costing infantry" its Canada cutting their budget at a time when they need to replace the CF-18. If you want a blame an aircraft blame the CF-18s for not lasting forever, not whatever replaces them, regardless of it its the super hornet, EF, or F-35 its going to cost. Canada put a cap at 9 billion, whatever they buy will cost that much its just a matter of what they spend it on. No idea why they don't blame other expenditures either, there seems to be no talk of Canada making cuts thanks to other acquisitions.

lastly as a quick hey wait a minute, Why do we assume the Eurofighters, F-18Fs, and other aircraft will still be in production in 2020? Unless they are buying them second hand, those planes are done. What will still be in production in 2020? F-35, Gripen NG, ??

[slowman.]

lastly as a quick hey wait a minute, Why do we assume the Eurofighters, F-18Fs, and other aircraft will still be in production in 2020?

45 unit open bid competition strategy assumes that it will start next year, or at least before the 2015 year election to remove one of the opposition's campaign pledges.

Canada would save a bundle(I believe $2 billion) of not having to extend the life of CF-18 fleet while waiting for F-35 to go into mass production in the 2020s this way, a 45 unit open bid contest in 2014 followed by a 20 unit CF-35 order in the 2020s.

[XanderCrews]

lastly as a quick hey wait a minute, Why do we assume the Eurofighters, F-18Fs, and other aircraft will still be in production in 2020?

45 unit open bid competition strategy assumes that it will start next year, or at least before the 2015 year election to remove one of the opposition's campaign pledges.

Canada would save a bundle(I believe $2 billion) of not having to extend the life of CF-18 fleet while waiting for F-35 to go into mass production in the 2020s this way, a 45 unit open bid contest in 2014 followed by a 20 unit CF-35 order in the 2020s.

wrong. And beyond one of the many more detailed reasons you are wrong, you do realize one of the articles you posted said the CF-18 fleet will last until 2025 without extensions?

Must be nice picking and choosing what you take as fact, and what you ignore. Wish I could invent my own reality like that.

[slowman.]

wrong. And beyond one of the many more detailed reasons you are wrong, you do realize one of the articles you posted said the CF-18 fleet will last until 2025 without extensions?

http://blogs.ottawacitizen.com/2012/06/ ... e-delayed/

Further Life Extension for RCAF CF-18s Being Considered As Delivery of F-35 Expected to Be Delayed

June 22, 2012. 7:49 pm • Section: Defence Watch

Lee Berthiaume, Postmedia News has an update on the F-35 situation:

OTTAWA — Defence Department officials knew last year Canada would not have enough F-35 stealth fighters by the time the last of the country’s CF-18s were due to be retired in 2020, newly released documents show.

As a result, officials were preparing to ask the Conservative government for more money to again extend the lives of some of the CF-18s — which have already undergone a $1.8-billion overhaul — until the last of the F-35s could come online.

“The planned CF-18 estimated life expectancy is currently 2020,” reads one email dated Sept. 21, 2011, and obtained by Postmedia News through access to information laws.

Canada’s fleet of CF-18s were initially set to be retired in 2002, but a decade-long, $1.8-billion upgrade extended the life of 80 of the aircraft to between 2017 and 2020. (Three of the aircraft have since been lost.)

Further life extensions have been regarded as prohibitively expensive.

“I wonder whether these guys are ready to play a very dangerous game to try to somehow extend the lives of the CF-18s,” he said of Defence Department officials.

Current SLEP is for upto 2020. If the RCAF wants to extend the life of CF-18 to 2025, then another extension is required, which will be cost prohibitive.

Hence running a 45-unit open bid contest to complete the delivery of replacement jets ASAP and not having to extend the life of those CF-18s past 2020 has become a financially very attractive option for the RCAF.

Must be nice picking and choosing what you take as fact, and what you ignore. Wish I could invent my own reality like that.

Creating an alternate reality is something you are good at and at which I am terrible at.

http://blogs.canoe.ca/davidakin/politic ... tins-f-35/

South Korea goes with Boeing, dumps Lockheed-Martin’s F-35
David Akin - August 18th, 2013

The Government of South Korea looks set to pick Boeing and its F-15 Super Eagle (above) over Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and the Eurofighter Typhoon. South Korea is set to spend US$7.2 billion to buy 15 two-seater jets and 45 single-seat jets.

Canada, by comparison, has budgeted CDN $8.99 billion to buy 65 new F-35s fighters even as it undertakes an evaluation of its fighter jet options. Both the F-35 and the F-15 would be likely leading contenders to replace Canada’s aging fleet of CF-18s. The F-35 is a stealth fighter while the F-15E has some stealth technology. Canada currently flies F-18s.

Now, using today’s exchange rate to compare South Korea’s purchase with Canada’s budget for F-35s, South Korea is spending CDN$120 million per plane while Canada has budgeted $138.3 million per plane.

Among the factors that saw the F-35 eliminated from the South Korea competition was cost. The F-15 was cheaper:

Also, in terms of local industrial benefits, Boeing has promised to assemble the jets in South Korea. Canada will also insist on some industrial benefits coming its way from the manufacturer it eventually picks to supply it with new fighter jets but I don’t think any of those manufacturers are ready to let Canadians assemble their jets.

[XanderCrews]

http://blogs.ottawacitizen.com/2012/06/ ... e-delayed/

Further Life Extension for RCAF CF-18s Being Considered As Delivery of F-35 Expected to Be Delayed

June 22, 2012. 7:49 pm • Section: Defence Watch

Lee Berthiaume, Postmedia News has an update on the F-35 situation:

OTTAWA — Defence Department officials knew last year Canada would not have enough F-35 stealth fighters by the time the last of the country’s CF-18s were due to be retired in 2020, newly released documents show.

As a result, officials were preparing to ask the Conservative government for more money to again extend the lives of some of the CF-18s — which have already undergone a $1.8-billion overhaul — until the last of the F-35s could come online.

“The planned CF-18 estimated life expectancy is currently 2020,” reads one email dated Sept. 21, 2011, and obtained by Postmedia News through access to information laws.

Canada’s fleet of CF-18s were initially set to be retired in 2002, but a decade-long, $1.8-billion upgrade extended the life of 80 of the aircraft to between 2017 and 2020. (Three of the aircraft have since been lost.)

Further life extensions have been regarded as prohibitively expensive.

“I wonder whether these guys are ready to play a very dangerous game to try to somehow extend the lives of the CF-18s,” he said of Defence Department officials.

Current SLEP is for upto 2020. If the RCAF wants to extend the life of CF-18 to 2025, then another extension is required, which will be cost prohibitive.

Hence running a 45-unit open bid contest to complete the delivery of replacement jets ASAP and not having to extend the life of those CF-18s past 2020 has become a financially very attractive option for the RCAF.

from the article you posted above:

That has been made possible, industry insiders believe, by commander of the RCAF Lt. Gen. Yvan Blondin’s assertion before the Senate defence committee last March 25, that the Air Force’s CF-18s are flyable through 2025. Previously the planes’ best-before date was deemed to be 2020.

http://o.canada.com/2013/08/15/0816-col-dentandt/

Bolded it for you.

[FlightDreamz]

Keep hearing rumors online about Canada ditching the F-35 Lightning II in favor of the F/A-18E "Super" Hornet (which would be monumentally stupid in my opinion - too short ranged for one thing) see http://www.cbc.ca/newsblogs/yourcommunity/2013/02/boeings-bid-to-replace-cf-18s-gets-cbcnewsca-readers-talking.html

<b>Boeing's bid to replace CF-18s gets CBCNews.ca readers talking</b>
Terry Milewski's look at the Boeing F/A-18E Super Hornet, now emerging as a rival to the Lockheed Martin F-35 as the Canadian Forces' replacement for its aging CF-18s, really got the CBC Community talking.

Many of the comments on our story were enthusiastic about the Super Hornet being considered, as Ottawa reviews its commitment to buy F-35s.

Or http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/canada-preparing-to-replace-its-cf-18-hornets-05739/

Canada’s 138 “CF-18s” were delivered between 1982-1988, but accidents and retirements have reduced the fleet to about 103, with only 79 upgraded F/A-18 AM/BM Hornets still operational. The CF-18s are expected to be phased out between 2017 – 2020 Now, 65 new CF-35As are Canada’s official choice to replace its Hornets – and estimates of the cost range from $17 billion to $45.8 billion.

And finally http://blogs.ottawacitizen.com/2013/02/12/the-super-hornet-would-out-perform-the-f-35-in-any-canadian-arctic-operation-says-cf-18-pilot/
I'm not even going to post snippet's from that article. Best to click on the link and draw your own conclusions!

[XanderCrews]

Keep hearing rumors online about Canada ditching the F-35 Lightning II in favor of the F/A-18E "Super" Hornet (which would be monumentally stupid in my opinion - too short ranged for one thing) see http://www.cbc.ca/newsblogs/yourcommunity/2013/02/boeings-bid-to-replace-cf-18s-gets-cbcnewsca-readers-talking.html

<b>Boeing's bid to replace CF-18s gets CBCNews.ca readers talking</b>
Terry Milewski's look at the Boeing F/A-18E Super Hornet, now emerging as a rival to the Lockheed Martin F-35 as the Canadian Forces' replacement for its aging CF-18s, really got the CBC Community talking.

That's a "story" about internet comments collected on their website?