Pressure increases on [Canada] to stay or leave F-35 program

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talkitron

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Unread post11 Nov 2017, 13:48

The uniformed Canadian Air Force commander, who is not the decision maker on procurement presumably but is in the loop, wants to start requesting fighter proposals in 2019 with the goal of awarding a contract in 2021.

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... quisition/
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ricnunes

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Unread post11 Nov 2017, 14:46

kimjongnumbaun wrote:In the end of the day, each country is going to do what is best for their own economy. There are no evil sides. It is what it is and business is business. Canada is still the loser in all of this as Airbus bought out Bombardier and the C-series will now be manufactured in the US.


From what I gather from the deal is that the C-Series will also be manufactured in Canada as well.
Basically the C-Series aircraft sold in the US (to US airline companies) will be manufactured in the USA while the C-series aircraft purchased around the rest of the world will still be manufactured in Canada.
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ricnunes

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Unread post11 Nov 2017, 14:49

talkitron wrote:The uniformed Canadian Air Force commander, who is not the decision maker on procurement presumably but is in the loop, wants to start requesting fighter proposals in 2019 with the goal of awarding a contract in 2021.

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... quisition/


That's a very weird article.
It almost seems like the candidates for the future Canadian fighter competition are only the Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon and Gripen and it hints that the F-35 is not a candidate which is course is not accurate!
The F-35 is clearly a candidate and almost likely (although "secretly") the preferred one.
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flighthawk128

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Unread post11 Nov 2017, 17:36

kimjongnumbaun wrote:
armedupdate wrote:What do you guys think of the Bombadier tarrif and their Airbus buy of C-series?

What's up with the Canadian opinion that US is "trying to destroy it's aerospace industry"


From what I read, Bombardier used government subsidies specifically on the C-series to undercut everyone else. That's why the US imposed a 300% tariff on it. Boeing made the stupid mistake of trying to crush them, while Airbus just bought them out and won the market anyways. Boeing had the opportunity to do the same but went for a more confrontational approach.

In the end of the day, each country is going to do what is best for their own economy. There are no evil sides. It is what it is and business is business. Canada is still the loser in all of this as Airbus bought out Bombardier and the C-series will now be manufactured in the US.


To be fair, Bombardier's reputation has deteriorated so much from the old days when everybody was buying business jets (golden era of Gulfstreams, Learjets, and Bombardiers). So in terms of killing Canadian aerospace... that happened when Diefenbaker axed the Arrow. Too much talent left and nothing and nobody ever replaced it. I'm in university studying mechanical engineering, and all the super smart guys that want to do aerospace are heading stateside; there's nothing here in Canada for them. I was talking to some of the program managers from Bombardier about the C-series and they admitted that it's super tough for them to compete against Embraer in that market. The Embraer jets were just so much cheaper, just as reliable, and had a competitive performance. I think that's why the government HAD to give them those subsidies because Bombardier would have never sold a single jet otherwise. Bombardier selling the C-series to Airbus is just kissing the last remnants of our aerospace sector goodbye.
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Unread post11 Nov 2017, 18:43

Wasn't US lobbying a huge reason for axing Arrow?

Also a 300% tarriff seems very harsh when Boeing gets subsidies as well, a lot more. It just lessens chance of Canadian buying American jets in the future. No matter how "fair" it was, it seems to make Canada look the other direction.
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Unread post11 Nov 2017, 23:30

ricnunes wrote:
kimjongnumbaun wrote:In the end of the day, each country is going to do what is best for their own economy. There are no evil sides. It is what it is and business is business. Canada is still the loser in all of this as Airbus bought out Bombardier and the C-series will now be manufactured in the US.


From what I gather from the deal is that the C-Series will also be manufactured in Canada as well.
Basically the C-Series aircraft sold in the US (to US airline companies) will be manufactured in the USA while the C-series aircraft purchased around the rest of the world will still be manufactured in Canada.


Correct. I should have clarified.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post12 Nov 2017, 00:09

armedupdate wrote:Wasn't US lobbying a huge reason for axing Arrow?



According to the Canadians yes.


The real reason is it would have taken up a massive share of their defense budgets.

But many Canadians never miss a chance to blame the US


It just lessens chance of Canadian buying American jets in the future


If we are talking about the CF-18 replacement it's going to be A US aircraft. No doubt. It can't be European because the sheer cost of keeping it compatible with the US is a non starter. Not to mention, is there a single eurocanard operator besides brazil west of Ireland?

So the question is whether Trudeau wants to bend over for Boeing who just humiliated him, or Lockheed who he said he would never buy from.

But he's going to have to kowtow to one of them or not have an air force


Also a 300% tarriff seems very harsh when Boeing gets subsidies as well, a lot more


Sources for this? I've heard of Boeing getting taxbreaks by local govs to get business. I've never heard of Boeing being subsidized like bombadier does.
Last edited by XanderCrews on 12 Nov 2017, 00:42, edited 1 time in total.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post12 Nov 2017, 00:33

talkitron wrote:The uniformed Canadian Air Force commander, who is not the decision maker on procurement presumably but is in the loop, wants to start requesting fighter proposals in 2019 with the goal of awarding a contract in 2021.

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... quisition/



So exciting!! They HOPE to START getting PROPASALS in as little as 14 months.


Holy cow!!! Slow Down, Canada!!
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ricnunes

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Unread post12 Nov 2017, 00:41

flighthawk128 wrote:To be fair, Bombardier's reputation has deteriorated so much from the old days when everybody was buying business jets (golden era of Gulfstreams, Learjets, and Bombardiers). So in terms of killing Canadian aerospace... that happened when Diefenbaker axed the Arrow. Too much talent left and nothing and nobody ever replaced it. I'm in university studying mechanical engineering, and all the super smart guys that want to do aerospace are heading stateside; there's nothing here in Canada for them. I was talking to some of the program managers from Bombardier about the C-series and they admitted that it's super tough for them to compete against Embraer in that market. The Embraer jets were just so much cheaper, just as reliable, and had a competitive performance. I think that's why the government HAD to give them those subsidies because Bombardier would have never sold a single jet otherwise. Bombardier selling the C-series to Airbus is just kissing the last remnants of our aerospace sector goodbye.


Myself being a Canadian born and living in Portugal (dual citizenship) I found the following traits which are common amongst both Canadian an Portuguese people in general:
1- Both build and make top notch stuff (amongst the best in the world)
2- Yet, both have a "sentiment" that believe that everything build or made abroad is always better than the same stuff build or made domestically.

To be fair this "sentiment" fortunately seems to be dwindling in Portugal although and unfortunately seems to be increasing in Canada as your post seems to be a (small) indication of this.

But what all this rant has to do with the subject?

You mentioned Embraer as a company apparently "superior" to Bombardier which is able to manufacture aircraft which is just as good as the ones built by Bombardier but much cheaper and all of this without (Brazilian) government subsidies??
If you think this then the first thing that I can say is: LOL! And as such let me tell you the following:
- Embraer is the recipient of major government subsidies! Actually the Brazilian government has a program called PROEX whose objective is to assign subsidies to Brazilian companies and Embraer in particular received lots of found though this same subside program.

Let me give you another example:
- What was the last aircraft developed by Embraer? The KC-390! Where did the funds come to develop this program? Entirely from the Brazilian government and the governments of other program partner nations such as Portugal, Argentina, Czech Republic, Chile and Colombia.
- And what was the last aircraft developed by Bombardier? The C-Series! Where did the funds come to develop this program? From the company's own (and private) funds - Yes, later on there were government subsidies/funds involved and even here if we look at the majority of the government funds came from the government of Quebec at the exchange of a participation in the C-Series program.

Resuming: If ANY company in the world that currently wants to develop a new/next generation aircraft, for example the Boeing's 787, Bombardier C-series, Embraer KC-390, etc... NEEDS government funds/subsidies/help/whatever you call it, period! Airbus also receives large subsidies as well.

It's also sad to see the Brazilians to rally around Embraer (for example no Brazilian airline company operates Bombardiers) while Canadians do the opposite regarding Bombardier (for example Air Canada operates Embraers) but again this is another matter.
But my "end" point here is: Embraer is also the recipient of heavy government subsidies!
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Unread post12 Nov 2017, 01:33

Some more gobbledegook from Canada about Canadian fighter intentions - LAST SENTENCE is INTERESTING.
DUBAI: Canada expects fifth-generation fighter contract by 2021
11 Nov 2017 Leigh Giangreco

"The Royal Canadian Air Force expects to release a new request for proposals for its fifth-generation fighter competition by 2019 with a contract award by 2021, the RCAF’s commander says this week.

In June, Canada proposed 88 new fighters for the RCAF, an increase from the previous government’s plan to purchase 65 jets to replace the aging CF-18 fleet, but did not outline a timeline for the RFP.

Canada launched an open competition for the CF-18 replacement last summer following a campaign promise from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party to step away from the controversial Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The government is considering all options, including the F-35, although a Boeing F/A-18 acquisition appears unlikely in the wake of the airframer's commercial dispute with Bombardier.... [so no BOING! nor LM bastardry but hey it is an OPEN COMPETITION - WTF - OVER!]

...Meanwhile, Canada is considering options for an interim CF-18 replacement. The government had previously proposed buying 18 new Super Hornets, but the commercial dispute has pushed the government to change course and examine Canada’s used Boeing F/A-18A/B Hornets. Last month, Canada submitted a formal declaration known as an expression of interest to Australia. Canada operates a similar Hornet configuration and both the CF-18s and Australian F/A-18A/Bs began operating within a few years of each other. Canada also bought the intellectual property on the jet and already uses L-3 for F/A-18 sustainment, Hood adds."

Source: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-443137/
RAN FAA A4G Skyhawk 1970s: https://www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ AND https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/
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Unread post12 Nov 2017, 01:43

I think IP means they needed to fabricate for the centre barrels. Without IP you can't do anything but buy from the supplier.
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Unread post12 Nov 2017, 03:05

It can't be European because the sheer cost of keeping it compatible with the US is a non starter.

Eurofighter is compatible with aamrams and sidewinders and link 16. It would be a strange expensive choice though probably only being done on having two engines.
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Unread post12 Nov 2017, 05:26

mas wrote:It can't be European because the sheer cost of keeping it compatible with the US is a non starter.

Eurofighter is compatible with aamrams and sidewinders and link 16. It would be a strange expensive choice though probably only being done on having two engines.


Link16 is fast becoming the "old way"

That's a fraction of what they need as F-35 sensors become the new normal and the US and allies upgrade. Thats a big thing with the Canadians they need to be able to upgrade. Sensors, comms, software, IFF, encryption, cyber etc

I'm mentioning irrelevant things I suppose since we both know it would be a wide stretch. I have heard typhoon is the only one that would be considered if euro was chosen that was years ago though.

Canadians enjoy a lot of mutual sharing of US training and facilities not going to happen if Europe is picked
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ricnunes

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Unread post12 Nov 2017, 13:32

The Eurofighter (for Canada) is not going to happen and why?
- Above all COST/PRICE.

Buying the Typhoon (in 2021/whatever) would be like going back to 1980 and Canada buying the F-15 instead of the F/A-18s. Yes, buying the F-15 (in 1980) would be interesting for Canada's needs specially for patrolling the great white north but in the end the F-15 was:
- Too expensive
- Very limited for multirole. Namely very limited in the Air-to-Ground roles.

And yes, Air-to-Ground roles are and will be VERY IMPORTANT to the future Canadian fighter aircraft. For example within the Canadian military structure who provides Close Air Support to ground troops? You got it: The Canadian fighter aircraft fleet (currently the CF-18 Hornet and later in the future whatever fighter aircraft will be selected).
And within the Canadian military structure who provides air strike capability contribution to NATO? You got it: The Canadian fighter aircraft fleet (currently the CF-18 Hornet and later in the future whatever fighter aircraft will be selected).
And for all of this, the Typhoon (even the FGR4) is still very limited just like the F-15 was very limited back in 1980 for these same roles.

But there's a difference between both the Typhoon now and the F-15 back then:
- The F-15 was the world's top fighter back then (1980) but the Typhoon is NOT the world's top fighter even today (and much less in the future).

So with the Typhoon you get:
- The price/cost of a top fighter aircraft without being a top fighter aircraft! :roll:
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Unread post12 Nov 2017, 17:38

ricnunes wrote:
flighthawk128 wrote:To be fair, Bombardier's reputation has deteriorated so much from the old days when everybody was buying business jets (golden era of Gulfstreams, Learjets, and Bombardiers). So in terms of killing Canadian aerospace... that happened when Diefenbaker axed the Arrow. Too much talent left and nothing and nobody ever replaced it. I'm in university studying mechanical engineering, and all the super smart guys that want to do aerospace are heading stateside; there's nothing here in Canada for them. I was talking to some of the program managers from Bombardier about the C-series and they admitted that it's super tough for them to compete against Embraer in that market. The Embraer jets were just so much cheaper, just as reliable, and had a competitive performance. I think that's why the government HAD to give them those subsidies because Bombardier would have never sold a single jet otherwise. Bombardier selling the C-series to Airbus is just kissing the last remnants of our aerospace sector goodbye.


Myself being a Canadian born and living in Portugal (dual citizenship) I found the following traits which are common amongst both Canadian an Portuguese people in general:
1- Both build and make top notch stuff (amongst the best in the world)
2- Yet, both have a "sentiment" that believe that everything build or made abroad is always better than the same stuff build or made domestically.


Yes for 1, and not really for 2. I know that Canadian made products is actually superior much of the time (depends on the product too) and many of my peers share that same pride. It's just that for some things like planes where Canadian industry has become virtually nonexistent, it cannot hope to compete against foreign industry competitors such as Embraer. How many airlines around the world are flying Embraers and how many are flying C-series? That in itself is a major indicator.

ricnunes wrote:You mentioned Embraer as a company apparently "superior" to Bombardier which is able to manufacture aircraft which is just as good as the ones built by Bombardier but much cheaper and all of this without (Brazilian) government subsidies??
If you think this then the first thing that I can say is: LOL! And as such let me tell you the following:
- Embraer is the recipient of major government subsidies! Actually the Brazilian government has a program called PROEX whose objective is to assign subsidies to Brazilian companies and Embraer in particular received lots of found though this same subside program.


Well sure, but when airlines are purchasing these aircraft, do they really think about "oh, how much money did the company get from governments to develop this aircraft"? Of course not. They care about unit cost, life cycle cost (including maintenance), reliability, safety, performance, etc with all of these costs and factors being upfront. Do those subsidies affect those costs? Yes, somewhat, but they're hidden and paid for most of the time. Bombardier and the Canadian government's subsidies were so freaking blatant, especially when the government intervened to get Air Canada to buy a batch of C-series aircraft.


ricnunes wrote:It's also sad to see the Brazilians to rally around Embraer (for example no Brazilian airline company operates Bombardiers) while Canadians do the opposite regarding Bombardier (for example Air Canada operates Embraers) but again this is another matter.


That's cause Bombardier can't even build a metal box on wheels with no onboard power (streetcar). As I said, I personally talked to project managers that were a part of creating the C-series, and it's a bloody mess. Bombardier's public reputation has diminished so much that they are viewed with contempt and are considered a prime example of incompetent project management. Hell, the management classes at my university use Bombardier as a case study of what NOT to do.

ricnunes wrote:The Eurofighter (for Canada) is not going to happen and why?
- Above all COST/PRICE.


This assumes the Trudeau government knows how to do math and would care. Considering they said the major factor of not purchasing the F-35 was cost and that in fact it is one of the least expensive options, I conclude that they either can't do math or are subscribed to our friendly southern neighbour's mentality of "alternative facts". Also supporting this is that they wanted to seriously overpay for some used Hornets...

ricnunes wrote:Buying the Typhoon (in 2021/whatever) would be like going back to 1980 and Canada buying the F-15 instead of the F/A-18s. Yes, buying the F-15 (in 1980) would be interesting for Canada's needs specially for patrolling the great white north but in the end the F-15 was:
- Too expensive
- Very limited for multirole. Namely very limited in the Air-to-Ground roles.

And yes, Air-to-Ground roles are and will be VERY IMPORTANT to the future Canadian fighter aircraft. For example within the Canadian military structure who provides Close Air Support to ground troops? You got it: The Canadian fighter aircraft fleet (currently the CF-18 Hornet and later in the future whatever fighter aircraft will be selected).
And within the Canadian military structure who provides air strike capability contribution to NATO? You got it: The Canadian fighter aircraft fleet (currently the CF-18 Hornet and later in the future whatever fighter aircraft will be selected).
And for all of this, the Typhoon (even the FGR4) is still very limited just like the F-15 was very limited back in 1980 for these same roles.


See, this is assuming the government actually cares about the capability of the armed forces. If they did care, they'd buy the F-35 instantly (which has all the capability anybody would want) instead of all the insanity that's been happening with proposing to buy used Hornets (one of those deals were of LEGACY Hornets, not even Super Hornets; where's the modern capability with that?).

ricnunes wrote:But there's a difference between both the Typhoon now and the F-15 back then:
- The F-15 was the world's top fighter back then (1980) but the Typhoon is NOT the world's top fighter even today (and much less in the future).

So with the Typhoon you get:
- The price/cost of a top fighter aircraft without being a top fighter aircraft! :roll:


Your logic is perfectly sound for logical people that care and can do math. Judging from the behaviour of our government officials, I think I can say that they do not fulfill any of the 3 criteria (logical, care, math). Which is why I worry about what our forces will eventually end up getting, because I don't trust that our government will make the right choices for our forces.

Yes, I'm proud to be Canadian. I'm proud of our history, our industry, and our forces. It's the idiots of this country that I don't like, and unfortunately, all levels of Canadian government and Bombardier management seems to have an awful lot of them.
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