Pressure increases on [Canada] to stay or leave F-35 program

Program progress, politics, orders, and speculation
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popcorn

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Unread post05 Apr 2014, 05:13

Given the limited number of F-22s, it would seem the F-35 is needed so ensure the F-22 remains relevant. :devil:


http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArch ... ology.aspx

As an example of a system that will have to adapt to a new mission, he cited the F-35.

“The F-22 buy was truncated,” Welsh said. “Good or bad, it doesn’t matter at this point,” but “we don’t have enough F-22s to provide air superiority for a theater’s worth of conflict.” Therefore, the F-35 will have to fulfill some of the air superiority mission “before it goes and does the things it was supposed to be designed to do. It’s just the way it is.”

James told reporters in a press conference later that she and Welsh have high confidence the F-35 will deliver the expected capability, and Welsh said he fully expects it will achieve the planned initial operational capability date in 2016.
"When a fifth-generation fighter meets a fourth-generation fighter—the [latter] dies,”
CSAF Gen. Mark Welsh
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Unread post05 Apr 2014, 05:29

Nice to know eh. :devil: As if all the countries buying the F-35 without the F-22 did not know this. :doh: Good of the WELSHINGHOSTAGE to say so though. :roll: GetYurPDF of the 6 page article here:
Low Budgets, High Technology By John A. Tirpak, Executive Editor AIR FORCE Magazine / April 2014

"Declining Air Force budgets mean the service must consciously trade capacity for capability....

...James told reporters in a press conference later that she and Welsh have high confidence the F-35 will deliver the expected capability, and Welsh said he fully expects it will achieve the planned initial operational capability date in 2016.

The F-35 has had teething problems, but these are typical of “leap-ahead” technologies, which the F-35 represents, James said. “A certain amount of this is to be expected,” she observed, but she reiterated program executive officer Lt. Gen. Christopher C. Bogdan’s mantra that “there’s no more time, there’s no more money” to get the F-35 up to snuff, and the aircraft will have to be “produced on time.”

Welsh said he trusts the opinions of hard-nosed test pilots and those in the initial training cadres who’ve said of the designers: “They got the airplane right.” The “way it flies, the way it handles. ... They like [it]. ... Every guy I’ve talked to who’s flown the airplane will tell you the same thing.”

He told reporters that the concerns on the F-35—particularly on the maintenance side—are “the same kinds” the service had with the F-22, F-16, and A-10, and those all were resolved. The key now is to bring an operations mentality to flying operations, rather than a test-flight mentality, “which is very, very different.”

“You’ve got to be able to have predictable turn rates”—the time it takes to service and ready the aircraft to fly again. “You’ve got to be able to fix airplanes within a certain time limit.” F-35 operations at Eglin AFB, Fla., are now tracked this way, he said....

...Welsh later told reporters that the data links are a key investment and his goal is “to make sure everything we can connect into is easily ‘connectable-to,’ if that makes sense.” It will be critical for all USAF systems to be able to talk to each other—and connect with the other services. AirSea Battle, he said, is “about extending ranges” and thus being able to take advantage of data from forward deployed Navy sensors on ships, aircraft, and submarines, and vice versa...."

SOURCE: http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArch ... nology.pdf (0.9Mb)
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Unread post05 Apr 2014, 07:18

The silver lining to the truncated Raptor fleet is going to be a more potent F-35 in the A2A arena.

http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArch ... 4best.aspx

Smaller But Still the Best

The Air Force is shedding aircraft and personnel in an attempt to preserve its potency and readiness as a global force. At the Air Force Association’s Air Warfare Symposium in Orlando, Fla., in February, USAF leadership laid the groundwork for what this will mean and cautioned that the service must undergo deep changes to adapt to a new postwar footing...

Change is already taking place in many mission sets. The end of F-22 production meant the F-35 is now being adapted to perform air superiority missions, and this involves improving weapons and sensors.
"When a fifth-generation fighter meets a fourth-generation fighter—the [latter] dies,”
CSAF Gen. Mark Welsh
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Unread post06 Apr 2014, 20:21

How much will this affect the price?

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2014 ... efore-2018
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Unread post07 Apr 2014, 02:24

Per unit cost will go down for Canada and concurrency cost will disappear, but total program cost will increase as the entire service life is shifted a couple years into the future, assuming inflation does its thing. I.e. instead of the last F-35 ending its service in 2046, it ends it in 2048 and consequently suffers 2 extra years of whatever future inflation.

Also, it means dealing with the extra costs of operating the old Hornets a little longer.
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Unread post07 Apr 2014, 03:54

This means game over for the Super Bug.
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Unread post07 Apr 2014, 05:42

It could also mak it interesting for anything other than the F-35 to win regardless of capability. Will any of the likely rivals (Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon, Gripen) still be in production then if they don't pick up an order between now and then?
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Unread post07 Apr 2014, 06:58

gtx wrote:It could also mak it interesting for anything other than the F-35 to win regardless of capability. Will any of the likely rivals (Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon, Gripen) still be in production then if they don't pick up an order between now and then?

The only one that might not make the cut is the shornet. All of the Eurocanards have orders that will keep their respective lines alive until 2018. And honestly, I'd be surprised if the f-18 was not around for the Canadian competition. The navy has made it clear that they want more gowlers, and even if they don't get them my money is on boeing keeping the line alive out of their own pocket with the hopes of winning big in Canada.
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Unread post07 Apr 2014, 07:54

coldman wrote:
gtx wrote:It could also mak it interesting for anything other than the F-35 to win regardless of capability. Will any of the likely rivals (Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon, Gripen) still be in production then if they don't pick up an order between now and then?

The only one that might not make the cut is the shornet. All of the Eurocanards have orders that will keep their respective lines alive until 2018. And honestly, I'd be surprised if the f-18 was not around for the Canadian competition. The navy has made it clear that they want more gowlers, and even if they don't get them my money is on boeing keeping the line alive out of their own pocket with the hopes of winning big in Canada.




Canada isn't going to the Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon, or Gripen. In the end it will get F-35A's as planned...... :doh:
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Unread post07 Apr 2014, 08:32

Corsair1963 wrote:Canada isn't going to the Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon, or Gripen. In the end it will get F-35A's as planned...... :doh:


I agree.
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Unread post07 Apr 2014, 11:46

coldman wrote:
gtx wrote:It could also mak it interesting for anything other than the F-35 to win regardless of capability. Will any of the likely rivals (Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon, Gripen) still be in production then if they don't pick up an order between now and then?

The only one that might not make the cut is the shornet. All of the Eurocanards have orders that will keep their respective lines alive until 2018. And honestly, I'd be surprised if the f-18 was not around for the Canadian competition. The navy has made it clear that they want more gowlers, and even if they don't get them my money is on boeing keeping the line alive out of their own pocket with the hopes of winning big in Canada.
One does not build white-tail fighter jets... period.
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Unread post07 Apr 2014, 15:09

lookieloo wrote:One does not build white-tail fighter jets... period.


Agreed. That is an awful lot of money to spend on "hope" especially when Canada hasn't officially withdrawn from the JSF.

I do think they will get F-35s in the end, I think only the most enthusiastic anti F-35/eurocarnard fanboy thinks that anything else will happen.

2018 will be on the eve of the JSFs FRP as well, it will be about 400 total (?) LRIP JSFs in service and in process of being built too. with As and Bs a few years on from IOC. The writing will be on the wall at that point. And it will still have issues and problems that come up, but by then we are talking about glowing reports from deployments and red flags :mrgreen:
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Unread post07 Apr 2014, 19:35

coldman wrote:All of the Eurocanards have orders that will keep their respective lines alive until 2018.


Not so sure there:

Rafale - would only be in production in India…if they ever get it sorted out. Or if Dassault somehow pics up another order from France.
Typhoon - not sure, but surely it would be winding up by then
Gripen - yeah, probably for Brazil…though surely one of the arguments they use against F-35 (that of single engine) also should count against the Gripen. :wink:

Besides, any of the industrial packages any of these could offer for Canada pales into insignificance against that for the F-35. And I still contend that this aspect will be very high in the minds of any Govt decision.
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Unread post08 Apr 2014, 06:16

Just politics.....Canada will hold off until after the next election in 2015. Plus, by that time the F-35 Program will have matured even more and the price will decrease more. Making any F-35 buy far more attractive.


Remember, Canada is a JSF Partner so Industry supports it along with the RCAF. (strong proponent)



Canada will get the F-35..... 8)
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Unread post10 Apr 2014, 05:57

RAH RAH for CANADAH!

F-35 facts VIDEO INTERVIEW 7.5mins 09 Apr 2014

"Stephen O'Bryan of Lockheed Martin explains why F-35s are the best fighter jets for Canada's military."

SOURCE: http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/feat ... 9577193001
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