Development Cost - Comparison w/ other fighter jet programs

Program progress, politics, orders, and speculation
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popcorn

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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 08:29

haavarla wrote:My point is, you blame the media for picking up on all the F-35 problems now.
Funny, i did not hear any complaints 5 years ago when the media painted the F-35 up in the sky..

The cost overrun of F-35 and its comparison to other jets are very much a reason we still see Asian countries still ordering Sukhois like never before. Lots of bang for the bucks.
But reading your post, i guess you know much better than the various AF around the world and what kind of requrements they need.
Just admit it, LM shot them self in the foot and the future F-35 prospect as less than rose red.


So which Asian countries are buying Sukhois like never before because of F-35 cost overrun?
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 08:39

haavarla wrote:a reason we still see Asian countries still ordering Sukhois like never before.


And which Asian countries would that be exactly?
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haavarla

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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 08:58

Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, India. They all are in Asia right?
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 09:02

haavarla wrote:Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, India. They all are in Asia right?


And when exactly did they last order any in significant numbers? Moreover do you seriously believe any of these are influenced by the F-35 as you have stated?
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haavarla

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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 09:03

XanderCrews wrote:
haavarla wrote:
the32notes wrote:Media also loves to talk about how expensive it is to operate and maintain the Lighnings

And above all that, what kind capability do you end up with. can the legacy platforms "manage China"? penetrate deep into Russia for instance? I know the F-35 can. The others.......I'd like to say yes, but....


The only thing you know about F-35 is what LM Adv claim.
So pls rephrase it to; " i know LM claim F-35 can penetrate deep into Russia and China"

Think about it. At this point its a very difficult mission(consider F-35 is not in service), and lets go 5 years or 10 into the future. Do you know how many F-35 that will be on order or even in service around the world?

Do you know how the re-armament of VVS and PLAAF will look like at that timeframe?

Five years ago, folks on this forum downplayed both China and Russia AF.
Said the Flanker fleet was going to drop sharply and the F-35 would enter service in due time, and take over a large chunk of former Flanker market.
India was going to order F-35 and kill all Flanker production bla bla and what not.

Look at present time, the Flanker production has never been higher, there are both advanced Su-30SM and Super MKI on order China will most likely order Su-35.
Hell, even Indonesia will order more Su-30/35:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/ ... ws&rpc=401

Russia is likely to order around 100 Su-35S and 60 Su-30SM alone.



The more people claim future fighter prospect for certain...


He said while making claims such as "is likely" and "most likely" :roll:

The Flankers looking great!! What will it be in 5 to 10 years? 35? 40 years old? Thats something the Flanker really has on the F-35, being designed in the 1970's and all, its here now. And where is the F-35? huh still be developed instead of upgraded for the thousandth iteration. I can't wait to see the Ultra Flanker WXYZ. Its just a wonderful aircraft that keeps on going.


You say 30-40 years old fighter design, true.
Then explain why US offered 30-40 years old fighter design in the Indian MMRCA tender?
Ofcourse, when it comes to US 30-40 year old fighter design, they are more than potent.
And when we see the latest pimped up flankers on the market, they are relics.. riiight.. gimmi a break.
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haavarla

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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 09:14

gtx wrote:
haavarla wrote:Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, India. They all are in Asia right?


And when exactly did they last order any in significant numbers? Moreover do you seriously believe any of these are influenced by the F-35 as you have stated?


Significant numbers?? Why does it have to be in significant numbers?
Vietnam recieved their latest batch of Su-30MK2, same with Indonesia, more on order too.
i would not be surprised if Malaysia order up more Flankers.

India, over 40 new MKI on order. The notion was then they would go for a stopgap with superbugs, and then order F-35, just like RAAF.

There are talks that Bangladesh will soon throw out a fighter tender, or perhaps not.. Maybe just order up new Mig's or Sukhoi's on the fly.

No i don't think the F-35 influenced these countries much, but other here seemed to believe so 5 years ago.. the F-35 would come cheap and F-16 cost level to operate.. well..
As i pointed out.
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 09:54

"still ordering Sukhois like never before." would imply you mean that people are ordering in "significant numbers". In reality the orders have been in drips and drabs for years now. The last time anyone placed a new Flanker order has been years ago.

You talk about Indonesia? They have less then 10 and the largest order (in 2010) was for 6! Hardly worth mentioning.

Malaysia WILL NOT be ordering anymore.

To use your own words: gimmi a break. You made absurd claims and then try to back it up by clutching at straws!
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 10:10

Recent news about Indonesian Sukhoi order confirms above claim by 'gtx'.

More Sukhoi Fighters for China, Indonesia AIN Defense Perspective » February 22, 2013 by Vladimir Karnozov

"...Earlier this month, another top Russian official confirmed that Indonesia is placing a firm order for six more Sukhoi Su-30MK2 two-seaters. Anatoly Isaikin, director general at weapon-sales agency Rosoboronexport, told the media that the deal also includes an unspecified number of Saturn AL31F engines and other equipment. The Indonesian air force already operates five Su-27SK /SKM single-seat and five Su-30MKK/MK2 twin-seat fighters...."

Source: http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... -indonesia
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 11:10

gtx wrote:"still ordering Sukhois like never before." would imply you mean that people are ordering in "significant numbers". In reality the orders have been in drips and drabs for years now. The last time anyone placed a new Flanker order has been years ago.

You talk about Indonesia? They have less then 10 and the largest order (in 2010) was for 6! Hardly worth mentioning.

Malaysia WILL NOT be ordering anymore.

To use your own words: gimmi a break. You made absurd claims and then try to back it up by clutching at straws!


Not quite.

In December 2011, a contract has been signed for the delivery of 6 additional Flankers to TNI-AU in order to established a complete 16 ship squadron.
They recieved two more Sukhoi's recently, making their inventory 12 units.

Vietnam: 30 December 2011 - Russia’s Sukhoi aircraft manufacturers have dispatched another batch of four Sukhoi SU-30 multipurpose fighters to Vietnam. The previous set of four fighters was delivered to Vietnam in june. All in all, 12 SU-30 aircraft along with $1bln worth of armaments, equipment and spare parts will be supplied to Vietnam under the contract.

http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/30/63161174/

India: Dec 24/12: Super-30s contract. Russia signs over $4 billion worth of defense contracts with India, including the deal for 42 “Super 30? upgraded SU-30MKIs. Key Super 30 upgrades are reported to include a new radar (probably AESA, and likely Phazotron’s Zhuk-AE), improved onboard computers, upgraded electronic warfare systems, and the ability to fire the air-launched version of the Indo-Russian BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.


Bangladesh: http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_11_15/Bangl ... -aircraft/

And why would Malaysia not order more Sukhois?
http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99 ... -deal.aspx
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 11:44

Regarding small orders for small AF, Sure. Be realistically. But its a wise decision. The Flanker production lines are at all time high, so small orders it wont rise the procurement cost any. Got to keep their budget in check i guess.
Which makes the F-35 even more out of the question.

It looks like more countries will have to settle for driblets..

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e10081027/
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 14:30

Which Asian countries can realistically qualify to acquire F-35s? A country would have to demonstrate a legitimate need for such an advanced aircraft, have the financial means and organizational expertise to own,and operate them and lastly, pass diplomatic muster. To-date, Japan, South Korea and Singapore meet the criteria. India is also cleared to consider the jet if they so wish, unlikely as it may be in the foreseeable future. Malaysia is the only other Asian state IMO that could possibly be added to the list in the future.
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 15:40

i did not hear any complaints 5 years ago when the media painted the F-35 up in the sky..


I must have missed that 'golden era.'


But reading your post, I guess you know much better than the various AF around the world and what kind of requrements they need.


uhh...OK

Just so I understand the logic-- not every country in the whole world is ordering the F-35 so its a failure because the usual suspects prefer Eastern Equipment? Is the Flanker a failure because its not going to be sold to Canada?

haavarla wrote:Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, India. They all are in Asia right?


We were trying to sell the F-35 to all of these countries?

haavarla wrote:
XanderCrews wrote:
haavarla wrote:
the32notes wrote:Media also loves to talk about how expensive it is to operate and maintain the Lighnings

And above all that, what kind capability do you end up with. can the legacy platforms "manage China"? penetrate deep into Russia for instance? I know the F-35 can. The others.......I'd like to say yes, but....


The only thing you know about F-35 is what LM Adv claim.
So pls rephrase it to; " i know LM claim F-35 can penetrate deep into Russia and China"

Think about it. At this point its a very difficult mission(consider F-35 is not in service), and lets go 5 years or 10 into the future. Do you know how many F-35 that will be on order or even in service around the world?

Do you know how the re-armament of VVS and PLAAF will look like at that timeframe?

Five years ago, folks on this forum downplayed both China and Russia AF.
Said the Flanker fleet was going to drop sharply and the F-35 would enter service in due time, and take over a large chunk of former Flanker market.
India was going to order F-35 and kill all Flanker production bla bla and what not.

Look at present time, the Flanker production has never been higher, there are both advanced Su-30SM and Super MKI on order China will most likely order Su-35.
Hell, even Indonesia will order more Su-30/35:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/ ... ws&rpc=401

Russia is likely to order around 100 Su-35S and 60 Su-30SM alone.



The more people claim future fighter prospect for certain...


He said while making claims such as "is likely" and "most likely" :roll:

The Flankers looking great!! What will it be in 5 to 10 years? 35? 40 years old? Thats something the Flanker really has on the F-35, being designed in the 1970's and all, its here now. And where is the F-35? huh still be developed instead of upgraded for the thousandth iteration. I can't wait to see the Ultra Flanker WXYZ. Its just a wonderful aircraft that keeps on going.


You say 30-40 years old fighter design, true.
Then explain why US offered 30-40 years old fighter design in the Indian MMRCA tender?
Ofcourse, when it comes to US 30-40 year old fighter design, they are more than potent.
And when we see the latest pimped up flankers on the market, they are relics.. riiight.. gimmi a break.


The F-18E/F prototype first flew in 1995. And the MMRCA didnt feature the Flanker either. :roll: Thus by your rules the flanker is a failure because it wasn't selected--It wasn't entered of course. (Also its hard for the F-35 to win in a contest it never entered)

We get it-- someone had the nerve to imply that Russia's vaunted airspace could be easily penetrated by something other than a German teenager in a Cessna, and you like flankers.

The whole basis of your arguement is "sure the F-35 is going to sell 3,000 units to multiple countries, but we are going to sell a hand full to a few countries too!" checkmate alright.
Last edited by XanderCrews on 22 Mar 2013, 17:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 16:03

haavarla wrote: still see Asian countries still ordering Sukhois like never before. Lots of bang for the bucks.
But reading your post, I guess you know much better than the various AF around the world and what kind of requrements they need.

LM shot them self in the foot and the future F-35 prospect as less than rose red.


The Su-35 is fourth-gen Haav. AKA 5th gen food. "Not surviable" to put it in USAF terms. Not exactly cost effective to buy cannon fodder.
And no, "various AF around the world" know pretty well what they need.
Japan, Singapore, Israel, UK, and various others have stated the need for the F-35.

The Flanker is shaping up to be the best 4th gen aircraft available to those who won't do business with the United States, and it's prospects are good considering that.
But their are far more nations lining up for the next generation than for something designed a decade or two before I was born.
Knowledge fuels imagination.
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 16:24

firstimpulse wrote:
The Su-35 is fourth-gen Haav. AKA 5th gen food. "Not surviable" to put it in USAF terms. Not exactly cost effective to buy cannon fodder.

Regardless what the USAF says, it is not settled law, and not agreed upon within the US defense establishment.

firstimpulse wrote:And no, "various AF around the world" know pretty well what they need.
Japan, Singapore, Israel, UK, and various others have stated the need for the F-35.


But not as a total fleet, unlike what the USAF envisions as necessary.

The approach in your cited countries (Japan, Singapore, Israel, UK) is a mixed fleet: Japan replaces its F-4s, yet still has its F-15s; Singapore replaces its F-5s, yet still retains its F-16s and F-15s; Israel adds F-35, yet retains F-16s and F-15s; UK replaces its Harriers and Tornados, yet retains its Eurofighters.

So it looks like these allies and partners envision having some stealth capability, but recognize that it is not always required or cost effective for an entire fleet.
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Unread post22 Mar 2013, 16:35

Better yet, compare the projected F-35 program costs to the B-52. It's been around for 50 years and has numbers available for the whole time.

Just a 5 minute search shows $642M from 2000 through 2011.

That doesn't even touch:
Aircraft acquisition costs (700+ airframes).
Construction of facilities (HUGE numbers during the cold war).
Fuel use over the last 60 years (how many hours of airborne alert and Chrome Dome missions were flown?).
Personnel costs to fly and maintain it.
MANY deficiencies and problems throughout it's development and service lifetime.
Any upgrades prior to 2000 (all the structural corrections for low level flying, all the various weapons modifications).
Research and testing of 8 different models (X/Y prototypes through H model).

I don't think it's too much of a leap to the program cost is more than $1T in today's dollar.

It also went through many of the same teething problems the F-35 is going through right now (Engines, Hydraulics and controls, cockpit environmental, repeated groundings, numerous component redesigns, threat of cancellations, concurrent production and testing, incorporating new materials and technologies into the aircraft
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