UK MOD in a muddle over F-35C

Program progress, politics, orders, and speculation
  • Author
  • Message
Offline
User avatar

spazsinbad

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 23589
  • Joined: 05 May 2009, 21:31
  • Location: ɐıןɐɹʇsn∀¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Warnings: -2

Unread post21 Oct 2018, 18:26

I would agree with my crystal balls that there is no chance CHINA will operate the F-35C however there 'is a chance' that INDIA may one day get going with the F-35C. One would search on 'India' to find evidence of this 'chance' prediction.

India - France - Australia Co-Operation Navalwise:
As Chinese Assertion Grows, France Plans Aircraft Carrier In Indian Ocean
20 Oct 2018 Agence France-Presse

"France, Australia and India had a responsibility to protect the region from "hegemony" -- a veiled reference to Beijing's growing might, he said. France said Friday it would send its aircraft carrier to the Indian Ocean next year, to defend freedom of navigation at a time of growing Chinese assertiveness in disputed waters.

The Charles de Gaulle, currently in the southern French port of Toulon undergoing renovation, should be ready to sail to the Indian Ocean early next year, Defence Minister Florence Parly said....

...French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking on a trip to Australia, said no country could be allowed to dominate the region. France, Australia and India had a responsibility to protect the region from "hegemony" -- a veiled reference to Beijing's growing might, he said. France has a number of island territories in the Pacific Ocean."

Source: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/france- ... ar-1934722
Last edited by spazsinbad on 22 Oct 2018, 00:44, edited 2 times in total.
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
Offline
User avatar

ricnunes

Elite 2K

Elite 2K

  • Posts: 2251
  • Joined: 02 Mar 2017, 14:29

Unread post21 Oct 2018, 18:49

spazsinbad wrote:I would agree with my crystal balls that there is no chance CHINA will operate the F-35C however there 'is a chance' that INDIA may one day get going with the F-35C. One would search on 'India' to find evidence of this 'chance' prediction.


Obviously we are in agreement China.
Regarding India, things are more murky indeed. My guess is that in the foreseeable future India won't get the F-35 - yes, I'm aware of all the discussion regarding the F-35 and India but I have some very strong doubts/reservations about this.
But even if India manages to "get its hands" on the F-35, namely on a "naval F-35" it will IMO likely get the F-35B instead since it would/could also serve their STOVL carrier (which again, it is so far the only carrier that India will get for sure) better than a F-35C could.
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
Offline
User avatar

spazsinbad

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 23589
  • Joined: 05 May 2009, 21:31
  • Location: ɐıןɐɹʇsn∀¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Warnings: -2

Unread post21 Oct 2018, 20:27

E-mail sender should provide a GoogieErf Map soon enuf to clarify exact position. Meanwhile this is that NueYawkers take on the position etc.:
"QE in the middle of the harbour: the Hudson begins on the west side of the bottom bit of Manhattan, approx 2.5-3 miles away."
Attachments
post_qe ED.gif
qe_harbor_PLUSl.gif
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
Offline
User avatar

spazsinbad

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 23589
  • Joined: 05 May 2009, 21:31
  • Location: ɐıןɐɹʇsn∀¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Warnings: -2

Unread post23 Oct 2018, 04:50

Be still the beating hearts of those wanting ARF for the UK F-35Bs - gotta get TANKing with the V-22 firstly - USMC test?
Euronaval 2018: RN issues caution to politicos on HMS Queen Elizabeth
22 Oct 2018 Beth Maundrill

"As HMS Queen Elizabeth goes full steam ahead with its sea trials a senior Royal Navy official urged caution to politicians keen to utilise the UK's newest capability ahead of schedule. Talking up the national diplomatic benefits of having two aircraft carriers Cdre Steve Allen, assistant chief of staff, carrier strike and aviation with the Royal Navy, noted that carrier strike capability will not be ready until 2020....

...Rumours have been made that the V-22 Osprey could fulfil the Maritime Intra-Theatre Lift (MITL) requirement, during his presentation Allen said that it could be ‘the V-22 or similar’. Earlier in October a US Navy MV-22 Osprey transport helicopter landed on the deck of the carrier for the first time....

...Other elements of the MTG [maritime task group] still to be finalised include the possible addition of an air-to-air refuelling capability...

...When both carriers, HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales, which is currently being fitted out, are in operation the UK will have at least one carrier strike group available 100% of the time, Allen said. He added that between upgrades and maintenance this means that the UK will have both carriers available around 40% of the time...."

Source: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/imps ... s-hms-que/
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
Offline

Corsair1963

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 5885
  • Joined: 19 Dec 2005, 04:14

Unread post23 Oct 2018, 05:51

I wouldn't be surprised if the UK Government orders just 48 F-35B's. While, buying the remaining 90 F-35's as "A Models" as a replacement for the Tornados!



Just speculating but it would explain a great deal.... :|
Offline

weasel1962

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1797
  • Joined: 07 Jun 2012, 02:41
  • Location: Singapore

Unread post23 Oct 2018, 06:11

Not sure how that could happen when the Tornados will have been retired by end of next year...
Offline
User avatar

spazsinbad

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 23589
  • Joined: 05 May 2009, 21:31
  • Location: ɐıןɐɹʇsn∀¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Warnings: -2

Unread post23 Oct 2018, 09:38

Some B/S about sizing value and I Give up. AND I give up forever....
https://tinyurl.com/y6ujlvfy OR https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqB6uDZXQAUvRwa.jpg:large (JPG 148Kb)

[quote] “For those who are still unsure who or where we are; we are the 4.5-Acres of GB sovereign territory in the Hudson River [nope in NY Harbour], visible from space.” [/quote]
Attachments
QEsatOverHeadViewNewYorkHarbourOct2018zoom.jpg
QEsatOverHeadViewNewYorkHarbourOct2018.jpg
A4G Skyhawk: www.faaaa.asn.au/spazsinbad-a4g/ & www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqC_s6gcCVvG7NOge3qfAQ/videos?view_as=subscriber
Offline
User avatar

marsavian

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1336
  • Joined: 02 Feb 2018, 21:55

Unread post23 Oct 2018, 09:59

Corsair1963 wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if the UK Government orders just 48 F-35B's. While, buying the remaining 90 F-35's as "A Models" as a replacement for the Tornados!
Just speculating but it would explain a great deal.... :|


Tempest has probably put paid to the F-35A idea. Maybe only about 100 F-35Bs will eventually be bought to fully stock both carriers in war time and have reserves but the rest of the money will go on Tempest. It's either Tempest or F-35A not both for the UK as they will not operate three separate types. If F-35A was start being bought you might as well replace the Typhoons with them and cancel Tempest but the political winds are blowing the other way.
Offline

Corsair1963

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 5885
  • Joined: 19 Dec 2005, 04:14

Unread post23 Oct 2018, 10:23

weasel1962 wrote:Not sure how that could happen when the Tornados will have been retired by end of next year...



A number of sources from the UK Government have said they're considering the F-35A. While, the current commitment to the F-35B is "48" Aircraft. Plus, nothing is written stating a replacement has to be ready before a type can be retired. This has happed a number of times. With the Nimrod Maritime Patrol Aircraft coming to mind....(still to be replaced by P-8)
Offline
User avatar

marsavian

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1336
  • Joined: 02 Feb 2018, 21:55

Unread post23 Oct 2018, 10:52

72 F-35B are at least needed if you ever want both carriers active at the same time with a full complement plus what about testing/maintenance aircraft ? UK F-35B buys will not stop at 48.
Offline

weasel1962

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1797
  • Joined: 07 Jun 2012, 02:41
  • Location: Singapore

Unread post23 Oct 2018, 11:13

Its 48 Bs by year 2023/2025. There won't be any more F-35 buys before then. There will be lots of F-35As in the UK at Lakenheath. That's the only decision that has been made regarding As in the UK.

I'd rather avoid ignorant prognostications like how LM will win T-X etc. MRA4 is a screw-up that is blamed on the previous government, not the usual course of business though its questionable as to how the English actually think nowadays.

The plan to handle the Tornado retirement is already decided with project centurion.

If the UK (that is if it survives brexit as the UK) isn't going to buy more Bs, they could just build all the lift-systems in the existing facility in Indianapolis. Instead actions like the below are being done which are more concrete signals than "unnamed sources". Not sure why the UK would set up a lift-system production site in the UK only for 48 and certainly not for USMC production which will certainly go down well with Trump!
https://navaltoday.com/2018/09/19/rolls ... ite-in-uk/
Offline

mixelflick

Elite 3K

Elite 3K

  • Posts: 3534
  • Joined: 20 Mar 2010, 10:26
  • Location: Parts Unknown

Unread post23 Oct 2018, 14:19

In 2024/5, the relative state of the F-35 and Tempest will be as follows...

The F-35 will be fully matured, or at least very close. It'll also be around $80-85 million/copy. The Tempest will be extremely immature, and that's assuming it meets an aggressive and ambitious timeline. For the capability they seek, this thing is going to cost well over $100 million. You can argue there's a political bias towards it, but a small production run coupled with virtually guaranteed developmental problems all but seals a higher price tag - probably a LOT higher.

I'll be surprised if the Tempest survives the prototype stage, nevermind a production aircraft. Just my 2 cc's...
Offline

hythelday

Forum Veteran

Forum Veteran

  • Posts: 555
  • Joined: 25 Jul 2016, 12:43
  • Location: Estonia

Unread post23 Oct 2018, 22:35

mixelflick wrote:In 2024/5, the relative state of the F-35 and Tempest will be as follows...

The F-35 will be fully matured, or at least very close. It'll also be around $80-85 million/copy. The Tempest will be extremely immature, and that's assuming it meets an aggressive and ambitious timeline. For the capability they seek, this thing is going to cost well over $100 million. You can argue there's a political bias towards it, but a small production run coupled with virtually guaranteed developmental problems all but seals a higher price tag - probably a LOT higher.

I'll be surprised if the Tempest survives the prototype stage, nevermind a production aircraft. Just my 2 cc's...


And that's the story why UK bough F-15s in 1985! Oh wait, no they didn't.

Stop thinking like a general who has total control over what he buys and a money bag to do it.
Offline
User avatar

marsavian

Elite 1K

Elite 1K

  • Posts: 1336
  • Joined: 02 Feb 2018, 21:55

Unread post24 Oct 2018, 00:15

mixelflick wrote:In 2024/5, the relative state of the F-35 and Tempest will be as follows...

The F-35 will be fully matured, or at least very close. It'll also be around $80-85 million/copy. The Tempest will be extremely immature, and that's assuming it meets an aggressive and ambitious timeline. For the capability they seek, this thing is going to cost well over $100 million. You can argue there's a political bias towards it, but a small production run coupled with virtually guaranteed developmental problems all but seals a higher price tag - probably a LOT higher.

I'll be surprised if the Tempest survives the prototype stage, nevermind a production aircraft. Just my 2 cc's...


Tempest has already received political support from the two major parties in the UK (Conservative and Labour) so the only way it's going to be cancelled is if it is a horrendous technical/cost failure as this will all be about building a bespoke UK product using late gen Typhoon avionics and weapons. However on the off chance it does fail there is always the ubiquitous and very capable (Block 5+) F-35A waiting in the wings to stand in from 2035-40 ;). The F-35B buy will solely be about keeping both carriers fully stocked with aircraft even simultaneously. They figured 138 would do that as their first estimate but I would not be surprised to see this downgraded to 100-120. Tempest is solely a Typhoon replacement.
Offline

Corsair1963

Elite 5K

Elite 5K

  • Posts: 5885
  • Joined: 19 Dec 2005, 04:14

Unread post24 Oct 2018, 00:52

marsavian wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if the UK Government orders just 48 F-35B's. While, buying the remaining 90 F-35's as "A Models" as a replacement for the Tornados!
Just speculating but it would explain a great deal.... :|


Tempest has probably put paid to the F-35A idea. Maybe only about 100 F-35Bs will eventually be bought to fully stock both carriers in war time and have reserves but the rest of the money will go on Tempest. It's either Tempest or F-35A not both for the UK as they will not operate three separate types. If F-35A was start being bought you might as well replace the Typhoons with them and cancel Tempest but the political winds are blowing the other way.



The Tempest is a good 20+ years off and maybe longer. So, don't see it really having impact on the F-35 in the foreseeable future...In addition the Tempest that we see today is not likely what the end product will look like. (that early in development)
PreviousNext

Return to Program and politics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests