F-35 vs Su-30/35

[magitsu]

Russia has these days almost as much wunderwaffe as the Germans during WW2. PAK-FA, Armata, TOS-1, larger than frigate warship projects, hypersonics, nuclear torpedoes...

What they actually end up buying is T-72/80/90 upgrades, Su-35, Klub/Kalibr and artillery/mlrs.

[weasel1962]

Money talks. Used to be $60+b, today its low $40+b (in rubles). Defense budget has been going down in USD terms due to the exchange rates. Agree its going to be tough even maintaining current force structures, not even talking about upgrades. With oil prices at the current levels, its looking even more bleak, no matter how brave a front Putin puts up.

[Corsair1963]

Russia has these days almost as much wunderwaffe as the Germans during WW2. PAK-FA, Armata, TOS-1, larger than frigate warship projects, hypersonics, nuclear torpedoes...

What they actually end up buying is T-72/80/90 upgrades, Su-35, Klub/Kalibr and artillery/mlrs.

The Russian Bear isn't looking very menacing these days.....

[boogieman]

Russia has these days almost as much wunderwaffe as the Germans during WW2. PAK-FA, Armata, TOS-1, larger than frigate warship projects, hypersonics, nuclear torpedoes...

What they actually end up buying is T-72/80/90 upgrades, Su-35, Klub/Kalibr and artillery/mlrs.

The Russian Bear isn't looking very menacing these days.....

I don't know, there are certain things about them that need to be respected. For example, in a confrontation in the Baltics they would benefit heavily from the "home-field" advantage and could bring significant weight-of-numbers to that region at short notice. Their doctrinal emphasis on EW is also noteworthy, in that it means they have quite a number of EW systems that really have no known US equivalent (ref my thread on it in OT).

That said I agree they have a habit of fielding Putin's vanity projects in penny packets. The bigger issue with the Russians is their penchant for flogging off their best tech to the Chinese who in turn reverse engineer & actually field it in meaningful quantities. I wonder how many Su35's the PRC will pull apart just to look at the engines...

[Corsair1963]

Russia has these days almost as much wunderwaffe as the Germans during WW2. PAK-FA, Armata, TOS-1, larger than frigate warship projects, hypersonics, nuclear torpedoes...

What they actually end up buying is T-72/80/90 upgrades, Su-35, Klub/Kalibr and artillery/mlrs.

The Russian Bear isn't looking very menacing these days.....

I don't know, there are certain things about them that need to be respected. For example, in a confrontation in the Baltics they would benefit heavily from the "home-field" advantage and could bring significant weight-of-numbers to that region at short notice. Their doctrinal emphasis on EW is also noteworthy, in that it means they have quite a number of EW systems that really have no known US equivalent (ref my thread on it in OT).

That said I agree they have a habit of fielding Putin's vanity projects in penny packets. The bigger issue with the Russians is their penchant for flogging off their best tech to the Chinese who in turn reverse engineer & actually field it in meaningful quantities. I wonder how many Su35's the PRC will pull apart just to look at the engines...

Russia clearly still has a large army and a massive nuclear arsenal. Nonetheless, it is no longer a Super Power and is falling further and further behind most of the Great Powers by the day. With the foreseeable future looking very bleak for them..........

[boogieman]

Russia clearly still has a large army and a massive nuclear arsenal. Nonetheless, it is no longer a Super Power and is falling further and further behind most of the Great Powers by the day. With the foreseeable future looking very bleak for them..........

On the whole I agree. I maintain a healthy respect for them in that people who are forced to do more with less can often surprise you, but I do believe that China are the real peer competitor to the US going forward. I honestly don't think Russia even has an interest in fighting over the Baltics any time soon. Meanwhile the sheer rate and scale of China's military modernisation is quite simply mind boggling - you only need to look at the number of new warships they are putting in the water year on year for a demonstration of that. On top of this they have exhibited some clearly belligerent behaviour in the SCS and are open about their intent to one day absorb Taiwan...

I expect Russia will continue to fade into China's shadow over time, while maintaining niche specialties in things like rocketry, sub design and EW systems.

[Corsair1963]

Russia clearly still has a large army and a massive nuclear arsenal. Nonetheless, it is no longer a Super Power and is falling further and further behind most of the Great Powers by the day. With the foreseeable future looking very bleak for them..........

On the whole I agree. I maintain a healthy respect for them in that people who are forced to do more with less can often surprise you, but I do believe that China are the real peer competitor to the US going forward. I honestly don't think Russia even has an interest in fighting over the Baltics any time soon. Meanwhile the sheer rate and scale of China's military modernisation is quite simply mind boggling - you only need to look at the number of new warships they are putting in the water year on year for a demonstration of that. On top of this they have exhibited some clearly belligerent behaviour in the SCS and are open about their intent to one day absorb Taiwan...

I expect Russia will continue to fade into China's shadow over time, while maintaining niche specialties in things like rocketry, sub design and EW systems.

I agree with much of what you said also. Yet, I think the biggest threat would actually be a high level of instability in China and/or Russia. Which, could lead to a miscalculation. That would have dire consequences for the world at large....

While China is a bigger military threat and challenge to the Free World in the short-term. I also believe they're the most likely to implode by expanding way to fast. This currently is causing considerable internal unrest. (Hong Kong, Uighurs. etc.)

Honestly, most don't realize China now spends more on internal security than it does on its military! This while threatening her neighbors and galvanizing many of the great powers against her. (clearly counter productive)

Makes you wonder what happen to the Wise and Patience China that would slowly make her moves. To the detriment of any opponent!


Just in....

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... rEJwlKpUZ5

[weasel1962]

Honestly, most don't realize China now spends more on internal security than it does on its military!

This at least officially, is factually incorrect.

http://yss.mof.gov.cn/2019zyczys/201903 ... 209184.htm

国防支出 = defense expenditure
公共安全支出 = internal security expenditure

Defense expenditure is about 5 times that of internal security. Has been so for many decades. Its an urban legend but having said that the budget is not small either. Its still about USD 30b, equivalent to or exceeds many country's defense budget.

On the other hand, if one treats the army as a security apparatus whose enemy is the local population....

[Corsair1963]

Honestly, most don't realize China now spends more on internal security than it does on its military!

This at least officially, is factually incorrect.

http://yss.mof.gov.cn/2019zyczys/201903 ... 209184.htm

国防支出 = defense expenditure
公共安全支出 = internal security expenditure

Defense expenditure is about 5 times that of internal security. Has been so for many decades. Its an urban legend but having said that the budget is not small either. Its still about USD 30b, equivalent to or exceeds many country's defense budget.

On the other hand, if one treats the army as a security apparatus whose enemy is the local population....

You said it....

[weasel1962]

Meanwhile the sheer rate and scale of China's military modernization is quite simply mind boggling - you only need to look at the number of new warships they are putting in the water year on year for a demonstration of that.

Not if you have been monitoring for the past few decades. Just to give some context if you consider the size of China's navy in 1990, China had 93 subs, 55 DD/FFs and ~915 patrol craft. Can you imagine how many they built each year just to reach that? The Chinese navy has always been big on numbers. 30 years on, they are building fewer vessels but with much larger tonnage. Its the big ships that make it now more visible but they have always been building a lot. 60+ x 056 corvettes may seem like a large number but its only 90,000 tons (and pales to the 100+ x 037 that were its predecessors). The 2 x LHDs alone already come close to matching that tonnage. In terms of big ships, the Chinese still have a long, long way to match the US but they are catching up.

[Corsair1963]

While, the PLAN may have more ships. They simply can't match the raw power of the USN. From Submarines (SSN's) to Nuclear Super Carriers to Amphibious Assault Ships to Aegis Destroyers! (and everything in between)


In an all out conflict they wouldn't last two weeks. Plus, that isn't even counting the vast number of US Allies. Which, would also be part of such an equation...


As a matter of fact the US Military is growing at an astonishing rate in capability. Something China hasn't been able to match!

[boogieman]

Meanwhile the sheer rate and scale of China's military modernization is quite simply mind boggling - you only need to look at the number of new warships they are putting in the water year on year for a demonstration of that.

Not if you have been monitoring for the past few decades. Just to give some context if you consider the size of China's navy in 1990, China had 93 subs, 55 DD/FFs and ~915 patrol craft. Can you imagine how many they built each year just to reach that? The Chinese navy has always been big on numbers. 30 years on, they are building fewer vessels but with much larger tonnage. Its the big ships that make it now more visible but they have always been building a lot. 60+ x 056 corvettes may seem like a large number but its only 90,000 tons (and pales to the 100+ x 037 that were its predecessors). The 2 x LHDs alone already come close to matching that tonnage. In terms of big ships, the Chinese still have a long, long way to match the US but they are catching up.

Comparing the PLAN of the 90's to the one of today is apples and oranges. It's not just the size of the vessels that has changed but the technological sophistication too - BIG time. Everything they are currently putting in the water that is Frigate sized or larger is a seriously capable vessel. Of course the USN is more powerful overall, but it is also stretched across the globe. For the time being the PLAN have the luxury of concentrating their forces into their immediate region, supported by land based missiles and aircraft from mainland China. If we have to take them on this is where it will happen, so they are a real peer adversary in this theatre IMO.

[loke]

Meanwhile the sheer rate and scale of China's military modernization is quite simply mind boggling - you only need to look at the number of new warships they are putting in the water year on year for a demonstration of that.

Not if you have been monitoring for the past few decades. Just to give some context if you consider the size of China's navy in 1990, China had 93 subs, 55 DD/FFs and ~915 patrol craft. Can you imagine how many they built each year just to reach that? The Chinese navy has always been big on numbers. 30 years on, they are building fewer vessels but with much larger tonnage. Its the big ships that make it now more visible but they have always been building a lot. 60+ x 056 corvettes may seem like a large number but its only 90,000 tons (and pales to the 100+ x 037 that were its predecessors). The 2 x LHDs alone already come close to matching that tonnage. In terms of big ships, the Chinese still have a long, long way to match the US but they are catching up.

China's 1990 navy is not so relevant for what they have today...

They have been on a steep learning curve and most of the surface ships they launch today are very capable. They are far behind on carriers, but apart from that their latest surface ships look pretty decent. Not same quality and capability as the USN but compares extremely well to e.g. Russian stuff; and the quantity is growing rapidly. Staying in their home region also helps a lot.

Their 055 "destroyer" (more like a US cruiser, at 13,000 tons) look very capable, they will have 4 operational soon, and are building 8:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_055_destroyer

Type 52D destroyer, they are building 13:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052D_destroyer

Approx 20 "lesser" 052B/52C/051C/Sovremenny Destroyers, most of which have been built after 1999.

32 54/54A frigates, built from 2005 and onwards

A number of older frigates that are more corvette-sized.

50 056 corvettes, (building a total of 76), modern, built from 2013 and onwards.

They also are building modern replenishment ships, like this one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_901_ ... pport_ship

[zhangmdev]

Honestly, most don't realize China now spends more on internal security than it does on its military!

This at least officially, is factually incorrect.

http://yss.mof.gov.cn/2019zyczys/201903 ... 209184.htm

That is only for the central government. Local governments spend far more. For instance, the relatively small city of Kunming spent 6.6 billion yuan on internal security in 2018, more than its medical system.

http://czj.km.gov.cn/c/2019-03-05/2932372.shtml

The macro data of expenditure is largely meaningless. There is no way knowing what is spent on what. Could be new fire-fighting equipments, surveillance network, riot gears, propaganda, or anything.

[Corsair1963]

China's 1990 navy is not so relevant for what they have today...

They have been on a steep learning curve and most of the surface ships they launch today are very capable. They are far behind on carriers, but apart from that their latest surface ships look pretty decent. Not same quality and capability as the USN but compares extremely well to e.g. Russian stuff; and the quantity is growing rapidly. Staying in their home region also helps a lot.

Their 055 "destroyer" (more like a US cruiser, at 13,000 tons) look very capable, they will have 4 operational soon, and are building 8:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_055_destroyer

Type 52D destroyer, they are building 13:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052D_destroyer

Approx 20 "lesser" 052B/52C/051C/Sovremenny Destroyers, most of which have been built after 1999.

32 54/54A frigates, built from 2005 and onwards

A number of older frigates that are more corvette-sized.

50 056 corvettes, (building a total of 76), modern, built from 2013 and onwards.

They also are building modern replenishment ships, like this one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_901_ ... pport_ship

In general terms the PLAN maybe comparable to the USN. Yet, when you get down to the serious nuts and bolts. Honestly, not much of a contest....

Plus, that doesn't include the US vast list of Allies. Which, would have to be included in any such a comparison.