AMRAAM kill probability.

uclass · by **uclass** » 14 May 2015, 09:30

Does anyone have any accurate records on combat use in terms of the number of firings and kills.

sprstdlyscottsmn · by **sprstdlyscottsmn** » 14 May 2015, 19:49

Search the forums. It's here somewhere.

uclass · by **uclass** » 14 May 2015, 20:53

I just wish I could find it.

basher54321 · by **basher54321** » 14 May 2015, 23:55

Kills only but looks close........................think there might be other firing cases you will need to find.

If accurate it is still difficult to do an actual probability without knowing the actual cause of the misses.

smsgtmac · by **smsgtmac** » 15 May 2015, 04:37

uclass wrote:Does anyone have any accurate records on combat use in terms of the number of firings and kills.

You are opening a real can of worms

but I have to ask: Why do you want the number?
I ask, because depending on what your ground rules and assumptions are you are going to get any of a number of answers. From the way you phrased the question, I would also say it appears you are asking for the kill success rate percentage (history) vs. kill probability (prediction).
The ambiguity leaps out just examining the history of one fighter pilot's record (all AIM-7s) which I did a while back. Here's the summary of AF 'Ace' Steve Ritchie's air combat engagements in Vietnam:

: Pick a Success Rate

Now, which missiles missed because of the F-4's Radar/Fire control was whack?

uclass · by **uclass** » 19 May 2015, 17:59

Or because they'd been on the shelf too long?

Thanks, I love reading about Ritchie. He was significantly better than other AIM-7 users of the era. Where did you get that?

This suggests 10 from 17 for the AMRAAM. Not sure of reliability though.

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-070109-1.html

sprstdlyscottsmn · by **sprstdlyscottsmn** » 19 May 2015, 18:52

Be careful of what it says. 10 BVR kills from 17 SHOTS. It doesn't say BVR shots. Some of those other 7 shots could be anything from BVR misses, WVR misses, and WVR HITS. Also, the above shows how "miss" is a very misleading term.

basher54321 · by **basher54321** » 19 May 2015, 18:54

uclass wrote:This suggests 10 from 17 for the AMRAAM. Not sure of reliability though.

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-070109-1.html

Not very reliable would put it mildly....... :shock:

So where did he get the data from?

All were BVR were they?

Any multiple shots at the same target?

hb_pencil · by **hb_pencil** » 19 May 2015, 21:12

I did an analysis a few years ago. The biggest problem is that half of the AMRAAM missiles fired are Aim-120As, which really had its roots in 1980s processing technology... their Pk, was relatively low. Its only with later models do you see the real advances in processing technology, and a much higher PK... over .7 if I remember correctly.

smsgtmac · by **smsgtmac** » 20 May 2015, 01:29

uclass wrote:Or because they'd been on the shelf too long?

Thanks, I love reading about Ritchie. He was significantly better than other AIM-7 users of the era. Where did you get that?

This suggests 10 from 17 for the AMRAAM. Not sure of reliability though.

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-070109-1.html

Data extracted from here: http://www.afhso.af.mil/shared/media/do ... 21-010.pdf
The observation concerning the differences between Pk and Success Rate came from Project Red Baron.
I knew a guy who was in the missile shop at Udorn when Ritchie was there. He told me Ritchie was the only pilot who ever visited the Missile Shop and asked questions, or sent beer to them after a kill. Guess who made sure he got the 'best' missiles?

uclass · by **uclass** » 23 May 2015, 11:24

basher54321 wrote:
uclass wrote:This suggests 10 from 17 for the AMRAAM. Not sure of reliability though.

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-070109-1.html

Not very reliable would put it mildly.......

So where did he get the data from?

All were BVR were they?

Any multiple shots at the same target?

Didn't here of any dogfights or AIM-9 use post AMRAAM introduction, so I would assume they were at least all closing frontal aspect shots. The definition of BVR is slippery. AIrcraft size, conditions, does vapour trail count? Visible at launch or at impact? Aircraft visible of fireball visible? At least one kill approximated to around 40km at launch.

http://www.f-16.net/f-16-news-article607.html

59% seems about right TBH.

basher54321 · by **basher54321** » 23 May 2015, 12:17

uclass wrote:Didn't here of any dogfights or AIM-9 use post AMRAAM introduction, so I would assume they were at least all closing frontal aspect shots. The definition of BVR is slippery. AIrcraft size, conditions, does vapour trail count? Visible at launch or at impact? Aircraft visible of fireball visible? At least one kill approximated to around 40km at launch.

28-2-94
3 * Galeb G-2s were claimed with AIM-9s - by Wright/OGrady in F-16Cs

There are some detailed AMRAAM firing accounts from the pilots in a few books such as
https://ospreypublishing.com/f-15c-eagle-units-in-combat-pb

sferrin · by **sferrin** » 23 May 2015, 18:35

uclass wrote:
basher54321 wrote:
uclass wrote:Didn't here of any dogfights or AIM-9 use post AMRAAM introduction, so I would assume they were at least all closing frontal aspect shots.

Why would you assume that?

uclass · by **uclass** » 26 Jul 2015, 17:01

sferrin wrote:
Why would you assume that?

Never heard of any being used in dogfights. The first US one shown on YouTube was certainly BVR and one Dutch one was from >20nm away.

mrbsct · by **mrbsct** » 02 Aug 2015, 07:06

I believe the CBSA report I found on youtube "The Trends of Air Combat" said the AIM-7 probablity of hit at BVR during the Gulf war was 23 hits out of 29 shots so 70 percent at BVR. 19 kills were totaled and but the other 4 hit the fireball since it was ripple fire.

Compared to the AIM-7 at WVR 15 shots were made but only 7 hit. So a 40 percent pK at WVR.

Range matters as well too, most AIM-7 shots during the Gulf War were from 18km, the effective range of the missile. So if it was fired at around 36 km the pK could be half of that.