Mission impossible : defeat IDAF in the mid 1980s

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nastle

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Unread post08 Jun 2020, 19:51

This is a alternate history question , I'm disregarding political scenario completely and focusing wholly on a fictional military conflict
Year 1984

Syrian AFs have been defeated soundly in 1982 by IDAF

and now to restore syrian morale soviets have decided to go all out and support them

USSR is willing to move significant VVS/PVO assets to counter the israeli airforce goals are essentially the same as it was in "war of attrition " in 1970 when soviets backed egypt

but this time soviets are willing to move hundreds of soviet SAM/fighter/bombers in an allout effort to counter the israelis

WHat strategy should soviets adopt to counter this formidable foe ? Please focus on the military apsect , I realize politically this was NOT realistic at all [ and assume no USA involvement ]
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hornetfinn

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Unread post10 Jun 2020, 09:12

I'd say if the Soviets went all out, they would've likely deployed all kinds of fighter (MiG-21/23/25) and attack aircraft (Su-17, MiG-27 and Su-24) along with a large number of mobile SAM systems (more SA-6s, SA-8, SA-4). Maybe even deploy some Tu-22 and -22M bombers to attack Israeli ships, large installations and early warning radars. But I think they would've consentrated on ground troops to counter Israeli capabilities. They could've deployed much more capable ground forces than what the Syrians had and could give Israeli forces a lot more trouble. Like you said, naturally that kind of action would also invite massive reaction from the USA in real life.
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nastle

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Unread post10 Jun 2020, 18:35

hornetfinn wrote:I'd say if the Soviets went all out, they would've likely deployed all kinds of fighter (MiG-21/23/25) and attack aircraft (Su-17, MiG-27 and Su-24) along with a large number of mobile SAM systems (more SA-6s, SA-8, SA-4). Maybe even deploy some Tu-22 and -22M bombers to attack Israeli ships, large installations and early warning radars. But I think they would've consentrated on ground troops to counter Israeli capabilities. They could've deployed much more capable ground forces than what the Syrians had and could give Israeli forces a lot more trouble. Like you said, naturally that kind of action would also invite massive reaction from the USA in real life.

thanks

if we concentrate on the airwar the ROE on the soviet side should be

1-avoid at all costs air to air combat with israelis
2-Willing to sacrifice strike planes [su17/mig27] to achieve military objectives
3-use fighters mig-23/25 to bait israelis away from strikers as much as possible and into SAM trap
4-Use of SSM like SCUD/SS21 to attack israeli bases

IDAF in 1984 has 75 x f-16, 130 f-4 , 45 f-15 and 150 kfirs

against this soviets from southern/central asian bases can deploy 630 mig-23 + 60 mig-25+ 250 mig-21 [fighters only] without withdrawing significant frontline forces from Central front and Far east.And approx 450 tactical bombers again not from frontline assets
This gives them an easy 3 to 1 advantage in numbers but the key would be how can soviets AVOID aircombat with ANY israeli fighters in such a small airspace
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madrat

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Unread post10 Jun 2020, 21:55

Sounds like a scenario for mass fratricide.
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zero-one

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Unread post11 Jun 2020, 10:48

nastle wrote:if we concentrate on the airwar the ROE on the soviet side should be

1-avoid at all costs air to air combat with israelis

It'll depend on how they choose to react on Operation Rimon some 12 years ago. They may want to redeem themselves from that and even send, maybe even push the Mig-29 for early service just as they deployed the Su-57 in Syria early.
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nastle

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Unread post11 Jun 2020, 10:51

zero-one wrote:
nastle wrote:if we concentrate on the airwar the ROE on the soviet side should be

1-avoid at all costs air to air combat with israelis

It'll depend on how they choose to react on Operation Rimon some 12 years ago. They may want to redeem themselves from that and even send, maybe even push the Mig-29 for early service just as they deployed the Su-57 in Syria early.

i doubt if that would make any difference
soviet pilots would use mig-29 in the same tactics as they use the mig-23
plus it would be in such small numbers that it would hardly make any difference
Last edited by nastle on 11 Jun 2020, 10:55, edited 1 time in total.
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nastle

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Unread post11 Jun 2020, 10:53

madrat wrote:Sounds like a scenario for mass fratricide.

indeed a very real fear
can the E-2 hawkeye AWACS of 1980s identify the type of enemy aircraft ? reason I ask is that sy AF can send a lot of obsolete aircraft as "missile sponges" while enabling the soviet strike planes to penetrate israeli airspace at low level.This will keep IDAF interceptors busy esp in an era of SARH missiles
or soviet s just send in strike planes without escorts , plus mass use of SSMs
and rely on purely mobile SAMs to counter IDAF [more modern, mobile, denser , better operated systems than syrians in 1982]
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zero-one

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Unread post11 Jun 2020, 14:48

nastle wrote:i doubt if that would make any difference
soviet pilots would use mig-29 in the same tactics as they use the mig-23
plus it would be in such small numbers that it would hardly make any difference


I don't think so. Like the American Teen series, the Su-27 and Mig-29 were developed from the lessons learned in Vietnam with improved BVR capabilities and a renewed emphasis on WVR.

I'm fortunate enough to know someone who was a pilot of the constant peg program, he recounted of how they were all hesitant on flying the Mig-23 and would rather fly the Mig-21. The 23's nose would veer to the left or right without any input, the joke was you don't ask if it would depart from controlled flight but when.

ACM was pretty much out of the question for the early Mig-23s, but with dogfigting being so prevalent in the 70s and 80s, the Mig-23 evolved in to the MLD variant which was supposed to be a vastly improved version. This coupled with early Mig-29 models rushed into service in the hands of competent Soviet pilots may give the Israelis a challenge.

But in 1982 the Israleli AF had perhaps the best ACM pilots in the world, suffice to say, engagements that did turn into a fur ball would have interesting outcomes.
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nastle

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Unread post11 Jun 2020, 22:47

zero-one wrote:
nastle wrote:

I'm fortunate enough to know someone who was a pilot of the constant peg program, he recounted of how they were all hesitant on flying the Mig-23 and would rather fly the Mig-21. The 23's nose would veer to the left or right without any input, the joke was you don't ask if it would depart from controlled flight but when.

.

isnt this the program which flew mig-23MS obtained from egypt ?

https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit ... flogger-e/

even their official webiste makes such OBVIOUS and embarrassing mistakes

Technical Notes (MiG-23MS)
Crew: One

Armament: One twin-barreled 23mm GSh-23L cannon; six air-to-air missiles (mixture of infrared-homing close-range, AA-2 “Atoll” or AA-8 “Aphid”, and medium-range AA-7 “Apex” missiles)
Engine: One Tumansky R-29-300 turbojet of approx. 27,500 lbs thrust
Maximum speed: Approx. Mach 2.4
Wing sweep settings: 16, 45, and 72 degrees; adjustable in flight


Mig-23MS only 4 AAM not 6 and carried no BVR weapons , no R-60 and only R-3S and R-13M

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