Kablammo! and recent events...

[knowan]

Trump just made a national address, no Americans or Iraqis injured or killed, damage to the bases was minimal.

Doesn't sound like he's ordering military retaliation; he's talking about sanctions instead.

[lbk000]

Sat images I've seen of the airbase damage doesn't seem to support this cluster warhead claim.

[marsavian]

Satellite Photos Reveal Extent Of Damage From Iranian Strike On Air Base In Iraq

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/79451703 ... 8512613959
https://www.businessinsider.com/satelli ... ?r=US&IR=T
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/08/poli ... index.html

Satellite photos taken Wednesday show that an Iranian missile strike has caused extensive damage at the Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq, which hosts U.S. and coalition troops.

The photos, taken by the commercial company Planet and shared with NPR via the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, show hangars and buildings hit hard by a barrage of Iranian missiles that were fired early Wednesday morning local time.

At least five structures were damaged in the attack on the base in Anbar province, which apparently was precise enough to hit individual buildings. "Some of the locations struck look like the missiles hit dead center," says David Schmerler, an analyst with the Middlebury Institute.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... se-in-iraq

The U.S. government has also now confirmed that it did not shoot down any incoming missiles. It did not, at least at the time of the strikes, have any ballistic missile defenses in place in Iraq ostensibly because its forces were postured to fight ISIS, which does not have these weapons.

More on this ...

https://mobile.twitter.com/LucasFoxNews ... 6093437952
https://mobile.twitter.com/JenGriffinFN ... 3457973251

The US has Patriot missile batteries guarding strategic assets in Baghdad and guarding bases in the region: Kuwait, Qatar etc. NOT guarding Al Asad or Erbil bases. Most of Iran’s ballistic missiles are pointed at American bases in the Gulf - Qatar, UAE, Kuwait.

The US had repositioned its forces after the Soleimani killing from small outposts to the larger protected bases. The 82nd airborne which flew in from Ft Bragg remained in Kuwait because they were protected by a “Patriot missile defense shield umbrella,” I am told.

High resolution https://s5.gifyu.com/images/highres.jpg













https://mobile.twitter.com/saraecook/st ... 4145514498

Sara Cook
@saraecook

NEW per
@CBSDavidMartin
: A DOD official says the US had “multiple hours” warning of an attack, plenty of time for troops to take shelter in bunkers. This warning came from a combo of satellites and signals and communications intercepts – the same systems that watch for NK tests

[zhangmdev]

Really impressed by the commercial sat images, sub-meter resolution, released hours after the event. Besides a bit of censorship, everything looks quite clean. All those helicopters, tiltroters, uavs. I can almost imagine the rotors turning and they flying away from danger.

Unimpressed by the result of the attack. A handful of "tents" or "buildings" were hit. The groud was hardly disturbed beyond the craters. Nothing is burning, no large scale fire damage. If I were they, at least I'd crater the runway, destroy the fuel storage, disrupt the operation of the air base as long as possible, or at least smash those tightly packed barracks to make living there uncomfortable. Not saying the attack is not dangerous, but the damage looks hardly worth those dozens of ballistic missiles spent.

So this round is over, Iran made a good show of it, literally crying because it was caught off guard. US refrained from direct conflict, don't want to be the bad guy this time.

[marsavian]

What is more unimpressive to me is that the US Army could not spare one Patriot battery to shield front line Iraqi air bases especially when your commander in chief is terminating their No.1 General and openly exchanging military threats, it beggars belief as the Iranians were basically given free hits. Of course missiles are often hit and miss in accuracy after traveling hundreds of miles and these were not their top of the line ones but it's fortunate one didn't directly hit a bunker where the personnel were. Ideally every base should have a big 3D AESA Radar or THAAD along with several Patriots.

[weasel1962]

Consensus growing that the 737 down in Tehran is due to technical issues (engine overheat).

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/wo ... s-12245302

OTTAWA: The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday (Jan 8) was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.

The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board.

The disaster occurred shortly after Iran launched a series of missile attacks against two military bases in Iraq that housed US troops.

"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that the plane was not brought down by a missile. There is no evidence to suggest that," said the source.

The agencies believe the most likely cause of the crash was a malfunction, the source added, saying there was some evidence one of the plane's engines had overheated.

Boeing said it had no additional comment. Earlier, the company said it was in contact with the airline and was ready to assist.

In July 2014 a Malaysia Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was shot out of the sky over eastern Ukraine during a rebellion by Russian-backed separatists, killing all 298 people on board.
Source: Reuters

[Corsair1963]

"weasel1962"

Consensus growing that the 737 down in Tehran is due to technical issues (engine overheat).

Not that I am one to believe in some type of conspiracy theory in such matters. Yet, does seem odd that just a few hours after the crash. Everyone said the loss was attributed to a technical and/or mechanical issue.

That is the "fastest" reaction to a cause of any Airliner Accident that I have ever heard of. As most go out of their way to not to jump to any conclusion. Before a very thorough investigation is completed....

Remember, none of the crew survived and nobody could have accessed the information on the Data Recorders in such a short period.

[nick_jm]

https://twitter.com/Azematt/status/1214967566369730561

This thread claims SA-15 wreckage in the vicinity of the crash site - take it with a big grain of salt.

For what it's worth, I'd take a claim from any "anonymous security source" that an accidental shootdown can be completely ruled out as a possibility - while the wreck's still smoking - with a bigger one...

[hornetfinn]

Really impressed by the commercial sat images, sub-meter resolution, released hours after the event. Besides a bit of censorship, everything looks quite clean. All those helicopters, tiltroters, uavs. I can almost imagine the rotors turning and they flying away from danger.

Definitely. It wasn't long ago when such capability was strictly only in high-end military satellites.

Unimpressed by the result of the attack. A handful of "tents" or "buildings" were hit. The groud was hardly disturbed beyond the craters. Nothing is burning, no large scale fire damage. If I were they, at least I'd crater the runway, destroy the fuel storage, disrupt the operation of the air base as long as possible, or at least smash those tightly packed barracks to make living there uncomfortable. Not saying the attack is not dangerous, but the damage looks hardly worth those dozens of ballistic missiles spent.

I think this clearly shows how difficult it is to shut down a large airbase using ballistic (or cruise) missiles. A lot of missiles is going to be needed to seriously disrupt operations for longer than a day or two. So such an attack would need to be followed with more conventional bombing with a lot more HE on target. A single missile has about similar effect on target as a single Mk 84 bomb when using unitary warhead. I'd say that Desert Storm already showed pretty well how difficult it's to do serious and lasting damage to airbases. Of course a lot depends on accuracy of said weapons and conventional bombing from aircraft has been far more precise than ballistic missiles. I'm not sure how accurate these Iranian attacks were. They might have been accurate or not as the base is full of buildings and stuff that could be hit even with imprecise attack.

[weasel1962]

I remember the initial reactions to the shootdown in Ukraine of the Malaysian airliner. within hours, there were reports of "radio intercepts" issued by the Ukrainians and fingers already pointed at the Russians. Don't recall many people saying then that it was premature.

Agree that the possibility that this is an Iranian shootdown cannot be ruled out yet. Recent incidents e.g. shootdown of Indian helicopter during balakot is a recent example. The Iranians may not be cooperating with the US but there is no reason why they wouldn't cooperate with the Canadians. Trudeau will probably push for TSB access to the investigation and crash site + gets independent eyes on the ground.

This was the statement they released.
http://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/medias-med ... 00108.html

However, what is factual is that there is no evidence to suggest a shootdown. The existence of SAM sites is not evidence. Tehran will definitely be defended.

[weasel1962]

I think this clearly shows how difficult it is to shut down a large airbase using ballistic (or cruise) missiles. A lot of missiles is going to be needed to seriously disrupt operations for longer than a day or two. So such an attack would need to be followed with more conventional bombing with a lot more HE on target. A single missile has about similar effect on target as a single Mk 84 bomb when using unitary warhead. I'd say that Desert Storm already showed pretty well how difficult it's to do serious and lasting damage to airbases. Of course a lot depends on accuracy of said weapons and conventional bombing from aircraft has been far more precise than ballistic missiles. I'm not sure how accurate these Iranian attacks were. They might have been accurate or not as the base is full of buildings and stuff that could be hit even with imprecise attack.

Images of the strikes as posted above
https://www.militarytimes.com/video/202 ... -air-base/

I think the images suggest the strikes were relatively precise. I'm guessing GPS guidance using Beidou esp since many of the missiles originated with Chinese assistance. It is also amazing how fast BDA occurred just with commercial sat access.

Agree, shouldn't read too much into it since the base was not defended by Patriots nor were there that many missiles. However it re-emphasizes the risk to key military facilities if there are no missile defense in place. The Taiwanese should be learning from this.

[hornetfinn]

I think this clearly shows how difficult it is to shut down a large airbase using ballistic (or cruise) missiles. A lot of missiles is going to be needed to seriously disrupt operations for longer than a day or two. So such an attack would need to be followed with more conventional bombing with a lot more HE on target. A single missile has about similar effect on target as a single Mk 84 bomb when using unitary warhead. I'd say that Desert Storm already showed pretty well how difficult it's to do serious and lasting damage to airbases. Of course a lot depends on accuracy of said weapons and conventional bombing from aircraft has been far more precise than ballistic missiles. I'm not sure how accurate these Iranian attacks were. They might have been accurate or not as the base is full of buildings and stuff that could be hit even with imprecise attack.

Images of the strikes as posted above
https://www.militarytimes.com/video/202 ... -air-base/

I think the images suggest the strikes were relatively precise. I'm guessing GPS guidance using Beidou esp since many of the missiles originated with Chinese assistance. It is also amazing how fast BDA occurred just with commercial sat access.

Agree, shouldn't read too much into it since the base was not defended by Patriots nor were there that many missiles. However it re-emphasizes the risk to key military facilities if there are no missile defense in place. The Taiwanese should be learning from this.

Agreed that accuracy could well be rather high for ballistic missile (especially one that is based on Scud). GPS/Beidou/Glonass is very likely and easiest way to improve accuracy in such a missile. I doubt it will allow pinpoint strikes but might improve CEP from 500m to say 100m or so. Better accuracy would need more advanced missile design IMO.

I agree that it's baffling why there was no Patriot system in place in such a big base. Of course it would add costs, but would likely not be much compared to all other expenses.

[mmm]

But also note that their failure rate is not exactly low, depending on report there are maybe 10 or more allocated to Al-Asad AB. It's hard to gauge how good the precision actually was even for those landed at the target site depending on what their intended targets were, but it appears to be reasonable against non hardened area targets.

The problem with BMD is that you can't be waterproof in all places, you simply won't win cost competition that way. And given this particular scenario I don't think deploying and manning a battery in the attack is the best course of action to minimize risk to personnel. Judging by the video, it would have been a relatively challenging case given the size and simultaneity of the attack on Al-Asad AB.If the reported "hours" of advanced warning is to be believed it's possible that the bases themselves were mostly evacuated. Even if not hardened shelter is a safer option by far.

[element1loop]

Who needs hypersonics to get hits when bases are left undefended against second-tier strike weapons.

[marsavian]

U.S. officials confident Iran shot down passenger jet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219

Evidence suggests an Iranian missile brought down a Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed near Tehran, possibly in error, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has said.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/pl ... m-updates/

U.S. officials are confident Iran shot down a Ukrainian jetliner in the hours after the Iranian missile attack on U.S. targets earlier this week, CBS News has learned. The Ukrainian International Airlines plane crashed Wednesday soon after takeoff from Tehran's airport, killing all 176 people on board.

U.S. intelligence picked up signals of a radar being turned on, sources told CBS News. U.S. satellites also detected two surface-to-air missile launches, which happened shortly before the plane exploded, CBS News was told.

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot- ... es-1481313

The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek.

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, a Boeing 737–800 en route from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airpot to Kyiv's Boryspil International Airport, stopped transmitting data Tuesday just minutes after takeoff and not long after Iran launched missiles at military bases housing U.S. and allied forces in neighboring Iraq. The aircraft is believed to have been struck by a Russia-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system, known to NATO as Gauntlet, the three officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, told Newsweek.

As I noted earlier check the video link posted here earlier, a couple of seconds before ground impact the plane lights up further with another missile impact around 27 seconds in.

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