Kablammo! and recent events...

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milosh

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 10:01

Any info about interceptions? I find it strange so many rockets were fired and still no info about number of intercepted rockets? We only got info about early warning detection.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 10:17

milosh wrote:Any info about interceptions? I find it strange so many rockets were fired and still no info about number of intercepted rockets? We only got info about early warning detection.


I've seen rather conflicting reports about interceptions. One is that there was no Patriots or similar protecting those two bases. Other is that some of the ballistic missiles against Erbil were intercepted. I'm sure more details will surface soon...
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knowan

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 10:35

Conflicting counts of number of missiles fired; USA is saying 15, Iraq is saying 22, Iran is saying 30 or more.
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weasel1962

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 10:37

Ukraine embassy released a statement stating that the probable cause of the 737 crash was engine failure, nothing to do with "terrorism". The list of passengers included 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians, including all the crew, 10 Swedes, 4 Afghans, 3 Germans, 3 Britons.

Not sure why there were so many Canadians onboard. RIP.
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knowan

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 10:57

weasel1962 wrote:Ukraine embassy released a statement stating that the probable cause of the 737 crash was engine failure, nothing to do with "terrorism".


They've withdrawn that statement: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... oeing-737/
Initially, Ukraine's embassy in Iran said on Wednesday morning that engine failure caused the plane to crash and denied that it was terror-related or that a rocket had hit the aircraft.

But it later withdrew this statement, saying that anything was possible, and Mr Zelensky instructed Ukraine's prosecutors to open criminal proceedings over the crash.

Having initially said the plane crash was due to engine failure and not foul play, there is now a new statement on the Ukrainian embassy website.

It reads: "A commission is working to clarify the causes of the plane crash. Any statements regarding the causes of the accident prior to the findings of the commission are not official."

The earlier line ruling out terrorism or a rocket attack as possible causes have been removed.



And Ukrainian International Airlines is saying there was nothing wrong with the plane:
Ukrainian International Airlines(UIA) has appeared to bite back at claims its plane came down because of engine failure.

The airline said there was "nothing wrong" with its plane.

It is understood the plane that crashed just outside the Iranian capital last passed a planned technical service just two days ago on Jan 6.

President of UIA Yevgeny Dykhne told a press briefing: "The aircraft was in good condition... We guarantee the serviceability of our aircraft and the high qualification of our crews"
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hornetfinn

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 12:02

I can think of the following potential responses for the USA.

1. Do nothing for now. Possible as the Iranian attack was insignificant really. However I doubt US will do absolutely nothing and think at least some soft response is going to happen.

2. Soft methods. Do some Cyber attacks against Iranian infrastructure or tighten the economic and political sanctions against Iran. I think this is very likely to happen regardless of possible hard military methods.

3. Minor military operation. Maybe destroy some radar sites or ammo depots remote from civilians. Other possibilities could be sinking some of their patrol boats or similar fairly insignificant targets. I think this is likely response along with soft methods. It would not escalate things further and would send a political and military message.

4. Major military operation. Do some serious bombing using cruise missiles and B-2s. Destroy some of their main naval and air bases along with nuclear targets. Shoot down their air force or destroy them on the ground. I doubt this will happen as it would be costly (in $$$) and Iran is already seriously outgunned and making them more outgunned is not changing much. However if USA could take out much of their ballistic missile and cruise missile capability, then it would change things a lot more. They'd lose much of their ability to threaten countries in the area and US forces. I however doubt that even USA could pull that off.
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milosh

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 12:40

Al Asad base is ~300km from Iran so if Iran fired missiles near boarder there isn't enough time to get people in shelters which mean US was warned.
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marsavian

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 13:00

Noisy impacts on al-Asad base

https://mobile.twitter.com/PressTV/stat ... 3046729728

Surprised no injuries either US or Iraqi and did this base have any Patriots guarding it or was it left to take its chances ?

p.s. Iran apparently refusing to hand over black box of airliner.
Last edited by marsavian on 08 Jan 2020, 13:04, edited 1 time in total.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 13:03

milosh wrote:Al Asad base is ~300km from Iran so if Iran fired missiles near boarder there isn't enough time to get people in shelters which mean US was warned.


It might not be that Iranians themselves warned anybody but that their actions were closely monitored and alert levels raised when appropriate. There were news about Iranian moving their missile launchers and troops couple of days before the attack and I'm sure US military had a close eye constantly. There would be some time (several minutes even with that range) to get to shelters from first warning. Of course the shelters need to be close by and there is not much time to fool around when to sirens go off.
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knowan

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 13:10

USA would have had surveillance assets watching Iranian launch sites round the clock for any sign of activity, it is entirely plausible they would have known some minutes before the first launch that an attack was about to take place.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 13:16

It seems Iranians did warn Iraqis about the attack and US forces also likely got the warning.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954

Iraq's Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said Iran warned him just after midnight local time that an attack was imminent and only areas with US troops would be targeted. There were no reports of Iraqi casualties, he said.


Not sure if that made any difference though as it seems rather vague warning.
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sprstdlyscottsmn

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 14:00

I can say from personal experience that a shelter is never more than a several second sprint away. You talk about warning with a 300km rocket? try a <10km mortar. We still had warning for every attack so long as our detection system was up. C-RAM is not half bad either.
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zero-one

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 14:12

Iran refuses to hand over the crashed Ukrainian Boeing 737's black box to the embattled manufacturer
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... 020-1?IR=T
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milosh

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 14:44

hornetfinn wrote:It seems Iranians did warn Iraqis about the attack and US forces also likely got the warning.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954

Iraq's Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said Iran warned him just after midnight local time that an attack was imminent and only areas with US troops would be targeted. There were no reports of Iraqi casualties, he said.


Not sure if that made any difference though as it seems rather vague warning.


Well good enough they are on standby so you can coordinate evacuation to shelters when alarm active. Base have lot of personal so it isn't easy as in some smaller bases.

There was Patriot two years ago I doubt they didn't had it now because situation with Iran escalate in 2019.

Sat photo (on twitter say it is two years old):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENv0seCW4AAX3v2.jpg
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marsavian

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Unread post08 Jan 2020, 16:53

Details emerge of missiles used in attack

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-m ... t-51029181

Iran's Tasnim news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), said Fateh-313 and Qiam missiles were used in the overnight attack on the US's Al Asad air base.

The domestically-made ballistic missiles have a range of 500 km (310 miles) and 800 km, respectively, it said.

Tasnim added that US forces failed to intercept the missiles fired from Iran because they were equipped with cluster warheads, which can disturb the normal performance of anti-missile rockets.

The agency said this allowed the missiles to cause "tens of explosions" in the base.

Former Iranian Defence Minister Hossein Dehqan said in 2013 that the country had developed a "new generation of missiles" equipped with cluster warheads.

A cluster warhead missile contains several warheads, each capable of being aimed at a different target.


Exclusive: US Base in Iraq Hit by Iranian Fragmentation Missiles

https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2020 ... n-missiles

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Tasnim News Agency has learned that Iran used sophisticated missiles with fragmentation warheads in an attack on the US airbase of Ain al-Assad in Iraq early Wednesday.

According to information obtained by Tasnim, the US missile defense systems in Iraq have failed to intercept any missile that the IRGC Aerospace Force rained down on Ain al-Assad airbase in Anbar province in western Iraq early Wednesday.

In the Iranian attack, launched in retaliation for the US assassination of top Iranian anti-terror commander Lt. General Qassem Soleimani, the IRGC Aerospace Force utilized the Fateh-313 and the Qiam missiles, with a range of 500 km and 800 km, respectively.

The Fateh-313 missiles have such a high velocity that the American defense systems have been unable to intercept any of the projectiles.

Moreover, the Qiam missiles fired in the overnight strike have been equipped with radar jamming systems and fragmentation warheads.


This was the first time that Iran has used such advanced missiles in a combat operation.

In June 2017, the IRGC had utilized Qiam for hitting the ISIS targets in Syria, but the missiles launched in that operation had regular warheads as the targets had been packed in a small area.

The fragmentation warhead in each of the Qiam missiles fired in the Wednesday strike have reportedly caused tens of explosions at the American airbase.

Tasnim has also learned that the IRGC has struck only the Ain al-Assad base in the January 8 attack.

Moreover, all of the Iranian missile units had gone on alert at the time of the operation against the US base in Iraq, and the Americans had been also notified that any reaction to the strike would have sparked a very harsh response from Tehran.



Missiles of Iran

https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/


Image
Last edited by marsavian on 09 Jan 2020, 04:10, edited 4 times in total.
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