Kablammo! and recent events...

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marsavian

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Unread post12 Jan 2020, 00:19

Iran (briefly) arrests the UK ambassador, as you do when you are a normal law abiding state ;)

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... mid-tehran
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51077897

.The UK's ambassador to Iran was arrested in Tehran as protesters took to the streets after the country admitted that it shot down a passenger plane by mistake.

Rob Macaire was held for three hours, in what the UK described as a "flagrant violation of international law". It is understood he was attending a vigil for those who died in the crash, which turned into a protest. He was arrested while on his way back to the UK embassy.

The Iranian Etemad newspaper shared a picture of the ambassador on Twitter after the Tasnim news agency reported his arrest. Iranian media claimed Mr Macaire was accused of inciting anti-government protests.

In a statement, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said: "The arrest of our Ambassador in Tehran without grounds or explanation is a flagrant violation of international law.

"The Iranian government is at a cross-roads moment. It can continue its march towards pariah status with all the political and economic isolation that entails, or take steps to deescalate tensions and engage in a diplomatic path forwards."



https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2020 ... ran-unrest

According to Tasnim dispatches, Macaire was in a protest rally in front of the university in time of arrest. He is accused of involvement in provoking some radical acts among protesters.

He was freed a few hours later but will be summoned tomorrow for further explanations.

An informed source told Tasnim that a shop which is located in front of Amir Kabir University has been used as envoy’s place for coordination.

A group of students had gathered inside the university to voice their protest after Iran announced the downing of a Ukrainian plane.


https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html

Thousands of people gathered in front of the gate of Amirkabir University of Technology not far from the former US Embassy in Tehran on Saturday in anti-government protests.

The students were originally set to gather for a vigil ceremony to commemorate the victims of the downed Ukrainian Airlines plane, but the mood of the crowd shifted to anger, Iran’s semi-official FARS News Agency reported.

Across social media people posted the following:

“The Chief Commander of all army forces (Supreme Leader) must resign.”

“Resignation is not enough. The responsible must be tried.”

“Death to dictator.”

“IRGC, resignation, resignation. Leave the power.”



President Trump's say on the protests

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... 5529902081
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... 2230067202

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

To the brave, long-suffering people of Iran: I've stood with you since the beginning of my Presidency, and my Administration will continue to stand with you. We are following your protests closely, and are inspired by your courage.

The government of Iran must allow human rights groups to monitor and report facts from the ground on the ongoing protests by the Iranian people. There can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters, nor an internet shutdown. The world is watching.
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marsavian

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Unread post12 Jan 2020, 03:50

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/11/midd ... index.html

Al-Asad, Iraq (CNN)United States troops at the Al-Asad air base in Iraq were aware that an Iranian attack was imminent, allowing them to take shelter two-and-a-half-hours before missiles struck on Wednesday, CNN has been told during an exclusive tour of the devastated site.

Most troops were either flown out of the base or sheltering in bunkers by 11:00 p.m. local time Tuesday -- shortly before the first of four volleys of missiles began at just after 1:30 a.m. on Wednesday, officers said during the first tour by journalists of the air base.

The attack lasted around two hours, only targeting the US areas of the air base, which comprise around a quarter of the Iraqi base. Officers called it a "miracle" that there were no casualties at the blasted site, with missiles landing just a few meters from bunkers, and some essential personnel remaining outside throughout.

The first strike hit at 1:34 a.m. and after a brief pause of around 15 minutes, the next volley began. Two more volleys of missiles followed over the next two hours.


Time to stop relying on miracles and get Patriots to that base ...

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madrat

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Unread post12 Jan 2020, 07:20

I wouldn't be surprised that these 'protesters' were coordinated through a collective leftism effort, courtesy of China.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post13 Jan 2020, 14:02

It's interesting to see how the Ukranian aircraft shootdown investigation proceeds. Will the Iranians be open or try to cover up. IMO, they'd be stupid if they tried to hide evidence as it's likely to be detected by the investigators. That might further fuel the unrest in Iran and also make the situation even worse politically and economically for them. I think they are basically forced to be open about the whole mess.
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geforcerfx

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Unread post14 Jan 2020, 08:10

hornetfinn wrote:It's interesting to see how the Ukranian aircraft shootdown investigation proceeds. Will the Iranians be open or try to cover up. IMO, they'd be stupid if they tried to hide evidence as it's likely to be detected by the investigators. That might further fuel the unrest in Iran and also make the situation even worse politically and economically for them. I think they are basically forced to be open about the whole mess.


I think they realized they were going to get caught after they invited the NTSB to the investigation on Friday then announced Saturday that the military had accidentally shot down the aircraft.

The really amazing thing is they don't even have CRAMs at any of the iraq airbases anymore, so even the Katyusha rockets and mortar fire can get through.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post14 Jan 2020, 10:06

geforcerfx wrote:I think they realized they were going to get caught after they invited the NTSB to the investigation on Friday then announced Saturday that the military had accidentally shot down the aircraft.

The really amazing thing is they don't even have CRAMs at any of the iraq airbases anymore, so even the Katyusha rockets and mortar fire can get through.


Very likely. There was not going to be way to cover this up as any tampering with the evidence would be impossible to do without anybody noticing. How do you hide the shrapnel holes in the aircraft? That would require getting rid of it altogether and that would be slightly suspicious I'd say...

Maybe the security situation within Iraq is pretty good now and such systems were not deemed necessary. However situations can change quickly there especially with Iran and others actively supporting different groups in the country. Getting rid of Qassem Suleimani was justified with threat presented to US forces in Iraq. There was already that missile/drone strike on the Saudi oil field and they might possibly use similar attacks on US forces in Iraq. I agree that at least CRAM systems should be in place. Israeli Iron Dome and David's Sling would be perfect for protection from all kinds of missiles and rockets and should be pretty affordable. Naturally Patriot or THAAD would be needed to counter Iranian longer ranged ballistic missiles.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post14 Jan 2020, 10:40

From what I've read and seen about the Iranian missile strikes is that Ain Al-Assad base was likely attacked with Qiam-1 ballistic missiles. It seems that those attacks were rather accurate and did pretty significant damage and luckily nobody was seriously hurt. The other base was possibly attacked with Fateh-110 variant and those didn't seem to achieve anything. Interesting that they have now shown pretty good performance from their ballistic missiles and cruise missiles/drones. I wonder how good the North Korean missiles are? I bet these countries have exchanged knowledge and expertise about missile technology. I bet there will be more interest for defensive systems (CRAM, GBAD, BMD) after these incidents.
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geforcerfx

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Unread post14 Jan 2020, 19:30

hornetfinn wrote:
Maybe the security situation within Iraq is pretty good now and such systems were not deemed necessary. However situations can change quickly there especially with Iran and others actively supporting different groups in the country. Getting rid of Qassem Suleimani was justified with threat presented to US forces in Iraq. There was already that missile/drone strike on the Saudi oil field and they might possibly use similar attacks on US forces in Iraq. I agree that at least CRAM systems should be in place. Israeli Iron Dome and David's Sling would be perfect for protection from all kinds of missiles and rockets and should be pretty affordable. Naturally Patriot or THAAD would be needed to counter Iranian longer ranged ballistic missiles.



Army seems to be taking SHORAD very seriously, adding the new launcher turret to stykers as well as IFPC Inc 2-I seemed to be going through development pretty quickly and was tested with 6 or so different missiles. MML has fired the Tamir missile (iron dome) so the army is testing anything they can to quickly fill the cruise missile/ rocket and mortar gap.

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I still think CWIS is liked for C-RAM from a cost perspective, if the navy keeps developing smart munition for the 57mm guns on the LCS's the army could take interest in that as that would cut down on the down field lead issue CRAM has had.

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madrat

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Unread post14 Jan 2020, 19:41

NSW video above.
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milosh

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Unread post14 Jan 2020, 21:07

geforcerfx wrote:
I still think CWIS is liked for C-RAM from a cost perspective, if the navy keeps developing smart munition for the 57mm guns on the LCS's the army could take interest in that as that would cut down on the down field lead issue CRAM has had.


Problem with ballistic missile is "what goes up must fall down" so if you use shells to stop ballistic missile warhead you need some big shells, which could punch trough armor of warhead (little known fact you have armored warheads) and detonate it on safer distance. No wonder railgun was consider as perfect solution for that but still there are lot of problems.
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marsavian

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Unread post15 Jan 2020, 23:43

Pentagon considering reinforcing missile defenses after Iranian strikes

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... rikes.html

The Pentagon is considering sending additional missile defenses and other capabilities to the Middle East to defend American troops in the wake of Iranian ballistic missile strikes in Iraq Jan. 8.

While Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Ain al-Asad air base and the Erbil airport caused no troop casualties among US or coalition forces, Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy said this morning the strikes reinforced Iran’s ability to target and kill Americans.

“They’re a very capable enemy,” McCarthy said on Wednesday. “They have capabilities that can strike and kill Americans.”

McCarthy said it would ultimately be up to Defense Secretary Mark Esper, his predecessor in the Army’s top civilian role, to decide whether to send reinforcements.

“It could be a variety of enablers, like missile defense and others, so we’re looking at that,” he said, refusing to provide details on what capabilities the Army could send.

Senior US officials said last week the Pentagon was mulling the deployment of more air defenses after the attacks, which Iran said was in retaliation for an American drone strike that killed Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani at the Baghdad airport earlier this month.


https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/u-s-loo ... -1.8378713

Tehran had been seen as more likely to attack U.S. positions in countries other than Iraq, where Tehran counts some influential allies, the senior U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The disclosure helps explain why the United States did not have Patriot air defenses deployed to locations like al-Asad air base in Iraq, where at least 11 of Iran's ballistic missiles struck in Wednesday's attack. Such systems are deployed elsewhere in the region where American forces are stationed, including in Saudi Arabia, an arch-foe of Iran.

Instead, U.S. forces took advantage of the hours of early warning provided by U.S. intelligence and were able to take more rudimentary defensive measures before missiles fired from at least three locations inside of Iran hit their targets in Iraq.

Such precautions include "scatter plans," huddling in bunkers and protective gear to help shield American forces that come under fire.

Army General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said he believed the attack had been intended to kill U.S. personnel at al-Asad. He noted that the missiles had 1,000- to 2,000-pound warheads on them, each with significant explosive power able to kill people in a wide area around the detonation site.

It was unclear whether the U.S. military might now seek to station Patriots inside of Iraq - and where they would be moved from. Air defenses are a scarce resource in the U.S. military.
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knowan

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Unread post16 Jan 2020, 06:40

hornetfinn wrote:Interesting that they have now shown pretty good performance from their ballistic missiles and cruise missiles/drones. I wonder how good the North Korean missiles are? I bet these countries have exchanged knowledge and expertise about missile technology.


Don't forget all the technology and assistance they're receiving from Russia and China.


hornetfinn wrote: I bet there will be more interest for defensive systems (CRAM, GBAD, BMD) after these incidents.


Absolutely.

For specific technologies, I'm expecting further acceleration of directed energy weapon programs.
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hornetfinn

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Unread post17 Jan 2020, 12:14

knowan wrote:
hornetfinn wrote:Interesting that they have now shown pretty good performance from their ballistic missiles and cruise missiles/drones. I wonder how good the North Korean missiles are? I bet these countries have exchanged knowledge and expertise about missile technology.


Don't forget all the technology and assistance they're receiving from Russia and China.

hornetfinn wrote: I bet there will be more interest for defensive systems (CRAM, GBAD, BMD) after these incidents.


Absolutely.

For specific technologies, I'm expecting further acceleration of directed energy weapon programs.


I agree with both of your points. It definitely seems like both ballistic and cruise missiles have become a lot more dangerous recently and their inventories have grown a lot in many problematic countries. They can very likely hit targets very accurately in serious volleys. Also accurate targeting info is very easy to get these days from multiple sources which makes the problem a lot worse.

Naturally when used alone, they are not going to really change the outcome. Luckily neither Iran or North Korea has much of an air force to do follow up attacks. But both could stage pretty serious ground offensive and naturally North Korea also has massive artillery and a lot of targets close enough to use them.

I agree that DEWs are definitley going to get some development boost from all this.
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zerion

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Unread post17 Jan 2020, 21:54

6 F-35 jets were reportedly on Iran’s borders at time of plane crash: Russia

Acting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says there is unverified information that at least six American F-35 jets were “in the Iranian border area” at the time when Iran accidentally downed Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 last week.

This information has yet to be verified, but I’d like to underline the edginess that always accompanies such situations,” he said on Friday.

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/ ... sia-Lavrov
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Unread post18 Jan 2020, 02:37

I don't know, but it doesn't sound anything at all like an admission of tort.

Hmm, maybe stop provoking American responses and 'such situations' would never happen...
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