SU-57: On hold for a decade

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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by juretrn » 26 Aug 2019, 20:23

Southerncross, what, old tired memes about the Su-57?
Congrats, now you've experienced about 1% of the fatigue when most members of this forum read same old Sprey-tastic memes about the F-35 over
and over
and over
and over
and over
and over
and over
...
Russia stronk


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by wrightwing » 26 Aug 2019, 21:13

southerncross wrote:

First of all, that is pretty much irrelevant to the discussion about an airshow performance.
Second, you don't have much information about domestic Russian planes but rather monkey models sold abroad, serviced and used poorly, with obsolete systems and weapons, lacking the required supporting assets etc. etc.



Monkey models? You realize that the Indian Flankers had better avionics/equipment than the Russian Su-30s, right?


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by southerncross » 27 Aug 2019, 00:21

juretrn wrote:Southerncross, what, old tired memes about the Su-57?
Congrats, now you've experienced about 1% of the fatigue when most members of this forum read same old Sprey-tastic memes about the F-35 over
and over
...

I doubt F-35 program has been targeted by more mendacious criticism than PAK-FA (twenty years by now and counting), at least not in media pretending to be serious, but I sure know what you mean. I am against any kind of fact-free, agenda-driven claims by any side. Anyone can have their own opinion about what we like or dislike, but expecting to post fallacies in the public domain without getting them contested is another different issue.
wrightwing wrote:Monkey models? You realize that the Indian Flankers had better avionics/equipment than the Russian Su-30s, right?

Is that bringing something to the discussion? I remind you, the original claim was that West knows a lot about Russian planes and their (supposedly poor) reliability, mine is that this knowledge is skewed as it is not coming from the original designer and operator of the plane but from foreigners with different degrees of proficiency and resource level and invariably used for political gain, pretty much as if someone takes the availability data from the USAF fleet and claims all but the oldest and simplest US planes are useless, unserviceable hangar queens. That is, fabricating BS to throw to the others based on generalization and spinning of convenient data to one's gain. Indians, whatever the equipment their MKIs had at a certain point compared to VKS, had and continue to have issues all of their own with every type of plane they operate, some justified others not so much, what does it prove about Russian planes in general? In the end it is a moot point to discuss, when none of us has EXACT knowledge of what is interfering the maintenance chain in every particular case. It can be a bad plane design, a poor implementation of a customization, badly dimensioned or managed spare pools, incompetent ground crews or some bureaucrat blocking some simple bolts from reaching their destination, in the end the result is grounded planes all the same.


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by Corsair1963 » 27 Aug 2019, 02:56

Funny, that Russia has only committed to just 76 Su-57's to be acquired over the next 9 years. While, not securing a single export order....

Including India that is Russia's biggest customer and desperately needs a 5th Generation Fighter.



Speaks volumes to me.... :wink:


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by fidgetspinner » 27 Aug 2019, 06:40

@corsair1963

"Funny, that Russia has only committed to just 76 Su-57's to be acquired over the next 9 years. While, not securing a single export order....

Including India that is Russia's biggest customer and desperately needs a 5th Generation Fighter.



Speaks volumes to me.... "

Do not know if this is a good excuse from the Russians or not but they say one of the reasons India turned down the deal is that they refused to give a tech transfer of the aircrafts to the indians. I do not know why the majority here views the comparison of 5th gen production numbers as some kind of accomplishment or that it proves anything?

You got one country that spends 70% of NATO's military and without a doubt has contributed the most money to the F-35 program than all countries combined(havent looked at any sources but I am pretty sure I am right anyways). An SU-57 to be sold to any European country(lovely history with Russia) is close to impossible and since most 1st world countries belong to that continent you really do not have much choices to who your going to sell a SU-57 to especially if you got another superpower lurking over your shoulder and throwing sanctions to your potential SU-57 customers(look at S-400 deals). So I guess this leaves us to China who already have their own 5th gen program do not really expect them to be customers of the SU-57. Bahrain, UAE, Qatar,Kuwait rich oil nations have US military bases, Russians interfere with one of their interests in Syria like some still funding the FSA while the Russians bomb them, they are mostly allies to the US than Russia. Japan has an island dispute with the Russians had bad historical relations in the past, has alot of businesses in the US. South Korea I have heard has some military projects with the russians like the KM-SAM but I would not say they are that close in terms of relationship if they are allies with N Korea. Brazil seems to have a good growing GDP but it seems they taken the Gripen-E deal. Now the question is did SAAB screw themselves for a small profit. Or would have the Russia or the US struck a better deal that was low cost to brazil but enough to make a profit for them?

Also the deal between India and Russia on the SU-57 is actually significantly more different than a deal the US has with the F-35s to other countries.

Tell me do you think all the countries that have contributed to the F-35 program would be willing to spend half the money for the F-35 program while the US contributes the other half than out of that deal get their produced F-35s without any tech transfer? The deal for the pafka program was Russia and India to spend half and half while supposedly the Russians claim they did not want to give india a tech transfer. Its not like the Russians are abundant in GDP spending either although they claim they are slowly bringing it back up while having alot of investments on other military projects. Also they have no outside help meaning everything is Russian made for their SU-57 program while the other program seems like a international one to whom develops the weapons and parts of aircraft, etc.

There are too many factors that limit the SU-57 to limited numbers according to the examples above while another aircraft does not have that unfortunate predicament to effect its numbers so I cant really follow what you mean speaks volumes to you(I would sure like mixelficks response as well since his last post I saw regarding production numbers seems the same as yours)? :? This subject seems like pointless banter for the SU-57 whenever its brought up.


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by Corsair1963 » 28 Aug 2019, 05:10

India left the PAK-FA/FGFA (Su-57) program with Russia. Because it didn't live up to performance expectations. It is simple as that..


Which, is also why it can't attract any customers for the type. :?


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by mixelflick » 28 Aug 2019, 14:53

I think the way they're aggressively marketing the SU-57 speaks volumes..

At MAKS right now, they're giving the Turkey PM guided cockpit tours (and free ice cream). They again offered it to India, which as mentioned pulled out long ago due to quality issues. Not industrial offsets, quality issues (as stated in great detail) when they left the program. Russia itself says its buying 76... over the next 9 years. The new engines aren't ready, and questions remain surrounding its stealth, super-cruise and I'd argue its AESA as well. Can all of these things be fixed? Maybe. I think they'll eventually get the engine they need. The AESA? Given they're hung up on the SU-35's PESA, it doesn't bode well. Stealth? Not likely. I think they decided long ago it would only have so much, and they lack the expertise to produce a true VLO design.

Put yourself in a foreign country's shoes: Do you really want to pay through the nose for a less than finished weapons system? How much will those new engines cost, if and when they're ready? How about the hypersonic missiles that go along with it? Those ready? If they are, they're not going to be cheap. Neither is a fully functioning AESA. So while Russia may be getting their birds at a discount, foreign operators are going to pay big $. Ever buy something that costs a LOT, only to get it home and it doesn't work as advertised? Leaves a bad taste in your mouth, which is the LAST thing Russia needs right now. The SU-57 is going to be very dependent on export orders, which is why you're seeing it so aggressively marketed. They know without foreign orders, the $ to fix the rest of its problems isn't going to be there.

With the F-35, countries are lining up to buy it. Several of those that have already bought it are buying more (what does that tell you)? In exercise after exercise, feedback is that it's dominating in the same way the F-22 dominates. It won't need new engines or weapons and it costs LESS than most 4th gen fighters. Where is the same level of interest/weapons system maturity feedback with the SU-57? I just don't see it. Not yet anyway..

For the record, I love its looks. It has some innovative features, but everything I've seen just points to a slightly stealthier SU-35. Same super-maneuverability, great legs, speed and kinematic advantages. But while these are all useful, they're yesterday's metrics. They seem to have once again prioritized those over game changing stealth and situational awareness.

Perhaps the Russians are right though, maybe stealth won't be all its cracked up to be. Most confrontations will still occur in the merge, and all the rubles spent on slight improvements to the SU-35's strengths will win the day. As it stands though as a foreign customer - I wouldn't buy it. Not yet, anyway.

Too many question marks...


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by milosh » 28 Aug 2019, 17:04

mixelflick wrote:For the record, I love its looks. It has some innovative features, but everything I've seen just points to a slightly stealthier SU-35. Same super-maneuverability, great legs, speed and kinematic advantages. But while these are all useful, they're yesterday's metrics. They seem to have once again prioritized those over game changing stealth and situational awareness.


Slightly stealthier Su-35 would be something like this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_F- ... lent_Eagle

Su-57 isn't just stealthier Su-35, it is VLO designed aircraft ask Chinese if you don't believe me, four leading Chinese engineers are lot more competent then you or me.

Not prioritized situational awareness?!? Plane have 300deg radar picture maybe even whole 360deg and you say they don't think SA is important?!?

And not just radar but also UV and IR picture.

New engine is needed for high cruising speeds they want something what F-23 would be if it was selected. They want plane which can cruise for long on +1.5Mach speed. With 117 it is capable for super cruise but range is lower.


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by fidgetspinner » 28 Aug 2019, 17:36

@mixelflick

"At MAKS right now, they're giving the Turkey PM guided cockpit tours (and free ice cream). They again offered it to India, which as mentioned pulled out long ago due to quality issues. Not industrial offsets, quality issues (as stated in great detail) when they left the program."

Erdo does not seem to happy I think his visit to Russia was to tell them to halt their forces from advancing any further in Syria. Turkeys economy is dependent on the US decisions and regarding the mood their relations are not that good.

"The new engines aren't ready, and questions remain surrounding its stealth, super-cruise and I'd argue its AESA as well."

The AL-41F1 seems pretty new in fact the year model seems more newer than the current F-35 engines so I don't see anything wrong with an upgrade down the line to be produced or why you see it as an issue? Stealth has been brought up before like the IRST placement and no S-ducts but some user claimed that if the SU-57 had S-ducts it would decrease its fuel range which I have always wondered why the SU-35 and SU-57 have stupidly long ranges when its compared to an F-22, or AJ bringing up the wing edges if I remember correctly being a stealth issue while another user brought up the L-band radar placement there which can also be used for EW. There is always a reason why things are done a specific way for any aircraft design also remember they do have access to radar chambers so rather if deciding that sacrificing one feature to get the other feature is a stupid idea is a choice anyone can make here. Radar is too early to judge as in no idea to what its performance parameters are. It is true they lag behind the east and west in MMIC technology but there is another certain field in electronics which I have mentioned before has shown what breakthroughs they have made in comparison to the west but rather if it will have a significant edge over the west or easts MMIC technology is beyond my scope of knowledge.

"Do you really want to pay through the nose for a less than finished weapons system? How much will those new engines cost, if and when they're ready? How about the hypersonic missiles that go along with it? Those ready? If they are, they're not going to be cheap"

I have no idea how far they have reduced the costs but regarding hypersonic missiles which ones are you referring to? They have air to air missiles are you referring the new ones or the ones in development like the HAWC missile which they have plans to fit internally?

"Neither is a fully functioning AESA. So while Russia may be getting their birds at a discount, foreign operators are going to pay big $. Ever buy something that costs a LOT, only to get it home and it doesn't work as advertised? Leaves a bad taste in your mouth, which is the LAST thing Russia needs right now. The SU-57 is going to be very dependent on export orders, which is why you're seeing it so aggressively marketed. They know without foreign orders, the $ to fix the rest of its problems isn't going to be there."

Yes costs are a limitation but no one knows not even you the costs of the aircrafts although they have made efforts to reduce the costs. But even if they have reduced them to be lower than the F-35 do you think the factors of 1. country relations. 2. threatened with sanctions. 3. domestic project instead of international one. 4. economy 5. project spending. Would effect the sales of the aircraft as well? I sort of got the jist of your goalpost to claim the reason is performance issues and costs dictate its production numbers but those 5 points above seem to really outweigh the reason of its production numbers as well as export sales.

"With the F-35, countries are lining up to buy it. Several of those that have already bought it are buying more (what does that tell you)? In exercise after exercise, feedback is that it's dominating in the same way the F-22 dominates. It won't need new engines or weapons and it costs LESS than most 4th gen fighters. Where is the same level of interest/weapons system maturity feedback with the SU-57? I just don't see it. Not yet anyway.."

Sorry if this sounds like I am mocking you. Does Russia pay 70% of NATO's military spending? Will their economy allow them to spend 1 trillion dollars on the SU-57 program to allow mass production? Is their project a domestic or international one? Do they offer tech transfer deals to countries like the F-35 with the SU-57? Does Russia have friendly relations to the majority of 1st world countries with significant GDP to afford their aircrafts? Is there a likelihood that any country willing to buy this aircraft will get sanctioned or have their relations with the US severed? Proud of the F-35s performance and sales its receiving don't get me wrong, but sometimes I wonder what if all those limitations were removed for the SU-57 unless you think those would be the same results?

The rest of your information seems repetitive here but either way thank you for the response.


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by botsing » 28 Aug 2019, 18:53

milosh wrote:Su-57 isn't just stealthier Su-35, it is VLO designed aircraft ask Chinese if you don't believe me, four leading Chinese engineers are lot more competent then you or me.

Please post (or PM) their phone numbers so I can check.
"Those who know don’t talk. Those who talk don’t know"


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by milosh » 28 Aug 2019, 21:43

botsing wrote:
milosh wrote:Su-57 isn't just stealthier Su-35, it is VLO designed aircraft ask Chinese if you don't believe me, four leading Chinese engineers are lot more competent then you or me.

Please post (or PM) their phone numbers so I can check.


Google their study of Su-57 model. I posted earlier on forum. Short version: if Russians hide engines and use stealthy nozzle it is fall in VLO category.

Stealthy nozzle we saw and hidden engines are mentioned in patents. So VLO. What RCS we can only guess because Chinese study didn't take RAM in account.


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by southerncross » 28 Aug 2019, 22:36

Corsair1963 wrote:India left the PAK-FA/FGFA (Su-57) program with Russia. Because it didn't live up to performance expectations. It is simple as that..
Which, is also why it can't attract any customers for the type. :?

Then why is the IAF boss saying that they will decide whether to buy the Su-57 when it is commissioned in the VKS? According to you they know it is a PoS, why would they loose time over it?

(BTW, even if it was a sad failure, it is pretty much the best they can get, so don't rule out India buying it that fast)
mixelflick wrote:I think the way they're aggressively marketing the SU-57 speaks volumes..

At MAKS right now, they're giving the Turkey PM guided cockpit tours (and free ice cream)

I loved that one. You know they are real desperate when they recur to such low tactics as buying ice creams to their customers :lol: :lol: :lol:
They again offered it to India, which as mentioned pulled out long ago due to quality issues. Not industrial offsets, quality issues (as stated in great detail) when they left the program.

Wow that is new to me. Do you have sources? Maybe I missed that one, but I have never read an official saying anything like that.
Russia itself says its buying 76... over the next 9 years.

Maybe the only thing we are going to agree in your whole post
The new engines aren't ready, and questions remain surrounding its stealth, super-cruise and I'd argue its AESA as well. Can all of these things be fixed? Maybe. I think they'll eventually get the engine they need.

It already has some engines. Do you have any data about what the plane can or can't do with them? You are going to be the only one outside the program knowing it then, since no data has been released either on the planes weight, drag or engine performance. Designers state the first stage engine fulfils the original requirements of MoD so all these claims about the aircraft being underpowered are pure speculation and twisting of words. No hard data available.
The AESA? Given they're hung up on the SU-35's PESA, it doesn't bode well.

More unsupported speculation. You have no way of knowing what the actual performance of the N036 is, and even ignore what the ultimate characteristics of the US radars are. The Byelka has been flying for many years now and their parts are in serial production. It is almost 2020 now and time to dump the old Soviet stereotypes.
Stealth? Not likely. I think they decided long ago it would only have so much, and they lack the expertise to produce a true VLO design.

With all the evidence provided by the strength of belief and circular arguments, sure. There is reason to think their understanding of the physical principles behind EM scattering is at least as good and probably better as US one, given the works of Ufimtsev were inspected at least twice before being released for publication. Don't be so sure they are so backwards, they manufacture the best AD systems and know a bit about radar detection.
Put yourself in a foreign country's shoes: Do you really want to pay through the nose for a less than finished weapons system?

True, that is why India waits for it to enter operation with Russia before saying anything. And rightfully so, otherwise they could be left with early models like the ones US got of F-35 and now are a pain in the a$$.

But of course, any country wanting the Su-57 instead of the Su-35 any time soon is going to pay for it handsomely, you can bet your last cent on that.
How much will those new engines cost, if and when they're ready?

No clue, but I seriously doubt they would be for sale in any case. They are highest tech designed to confront F-22, why would they sell that when Us does not sell the F-22 either?
How about the hypersonic missiles that go along with it? Those ready? If they are, they're not going to be cheap.

Apparently being in ongoing development and scheduled for the current weapons program, but they are too advanced too to be sold right now. No country expects to get in the market a military technology that not even US has, and at a discount. Maybe in very special cases like India some arrangement could be done, over the long term.
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Neither is a fully functioning AESA. So while Russia may be getting their birds at a discount, foreign operators are going to pay big $. Ever buy something that costs a LOT, only to get it home and it doesn't work as advertised? Leaves a bad taste in your mouth, which is the LAST thing Russia needs right now.

First, sorry to tell but you have no clue how expensive it will be. Second, as said above, if you want the super premium Su-57 instead of the more than ok Su-35, you are ready to pay for it. There is simply nothing similar in the market, as both J-20 and F-22 are not for sale.
The SU-57 is going to be very dependent on export orders, which is why you're seeing it so aggressively marketed. They know without foreign orders, the $ to fix the rest of its problems isn't going to be there.

Pure speculation & wishful thinking, again.

It is simply out of this world to suggest that the whole development of the VKS is going to be contingent on completely unmanageable factors like the timing, amount and price of foreign orders. That is not planing at all and you seem to take for granted that the Russian military have no professionals but only cartoonishly stupid people in charge. Things are not run like that, anywhere.
With the F-35, countries are lining up to buy it. Several of those that have already bought it are buying more (what does that tell you)? In exercise after exercise, feedback is that it's dominating in the same way the F-22 dominates. It won't need new engines or weapons and it costs LESS than most 4th gen fighters. Where is the same level of interest/weapons system maturity feedback with the SU-57? I just don't see it. Not yet anyway..

It is of course pointless to try to convince you, but you can believe me there are millions and millions of people in the world that know for a fact that US has more tools to get things go their way that only being the best and the kindest in everything all the time. The levels of political pressure on NATO and allied governments to buy the F-35 are mind blowing. But you don't perceive it, so it is ok.
For the record, I love its looks. It has some innovative features, but everything I've seen just points to a slightly stealthier SU-35. Same super-maneuverability, great legs, speed and kinematic advantages. But while these are all useful, they're yesterday's metrics. They seem to have once again prioritized those over game changing stealth and situational awareness.

At least you try to be fair. But the problem is that it is not easy to know what is true and what not when issues are so manipulated like F-35 or Su-57 programs. At the time of the F-22, supersonic cruise and maneouverability were of great relevance and everybody admitted it. Now they are secondary, coincidentally they are not the strongest points of the F-35 and SA is the be-all, end-all characteristic. The new US 6th gen. platforms again want range and speed, and I bet you my shirt the public will applaud it when promoted by the MIC's media. Stealth is unassailable when it is "our" stealth, when it is foreign we have countering tools like the E-2D claims to be, for instance.

Militaries have always known that kinematics matter, A LOT, specially for air superiority. Hence why US does not sell the F-22 but goes all out trying to sell the F-35 abroad. And also one of the reasons why the adaptive engines and the PCA programs are being fast tracked and Pentagon is scrambling in search of funds as we speak.
Perhaps the Russians are right though, maybe stealth won't be all its cracked up to be. Most confrontations will still occur in the merge, and all the rubles spent on slight improvements to the SU-35's strengths will win the day. As it stands though as a foreign customer - I wouldn't buy it. Not yet, anyway.

Wow now you are surprising me. My take is that stealth is valuable and signature control makes part of the state of the art and is indispensable from now onwards, period. But it can be countered and you cannot place all the eggs in that basket only. There was some Israeli officer saying it would have 5 or 10 years use and then become secondary, they know every bit as much as any US guy and have practically access to everything so I would not dismiss that lightly, even when it may be exaggerated. What I very much assume to be the truth is that scarcely developed militaries can be helpless against such weapons, but advanced ones have ways both to deploy and to counter VLO.


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by Corsair1963 » 28 Aug 2019, 23:44

southerncross wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:
India left the PAK-FA/FGFA (Su-57) program with Russia. Because it didn't live up to performance expectations. It is simple as that..

Which, is also why it can't attract any customers for the type. :?


Then why is the IAF boss saying that they will decide whether to buy the Su-57 when it is commissioned in the VKS? According to you they know it is a PoS, why would they loose time over it?


India still buys and maintains a lot of Russian Military Hardware. So, why offend Russia directly buy completely closing the door on the Su-57. Which, would hurt Russia prospects to sell the Su-57 to other customers.

India will need Russian Technical Support, Spares, etc. etc. for years to come.

So, while India is buying more and more Western Hardware. She wants to let down Russia ever so slowly... :wink:


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by element1loop » 29 Aug 2019, 02:56

mixelflick wrote:I think the way they're aggressively marketing the SU-57 speaks volumes.. At MAKS right now, they're giving the Turkey PM guided cockpit tours (and free ice cream). They again offered it to India ...


The problem for Sukhoi is neither of those customers have the coin and Turkey is going to have a whole lot less coin in the near to medium term. Plus they are, for better or worse, still in NATO.
Accel + Alt + VLO + DAS + MDF + Radial Distance = LIFE . . . Always choose Stealth


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by charlielima223 » 29 Aug 2019, 03:19

The nerves of the pro-PAKFA crowd must have been really ticked...

As an outsider all I ever see of the PAKFA are photo opportunities for the press and airshow demos. All nice and cool but this is supposed to be a combat aircraft... not some aerial super model. Compare the PAKFAs progression and news media attention to the F-35...

Before any major weapons or avionics test and validation was conducted, the PAKFA had to appear at an airshow as if, "look at me! I can fly". The F-35 (and the F-22 before it) went through numerous test, evaluations, and validations before they ever appeared at an airshow doing acrobatic maneuvers. Its more of, "lets get this product finished before we show it to the public". There was many articles of the F-35 doing weapons test and avionics tests before it showed up at an airshow.

This all I ever hear/read from thr PAKFA crowd, "it will get it". Okay thats nice... when? Response to that is, "eventually... they're working on it though". This mainly pretains to things like the engine, radar, avionics, and weapons. In contrast the F-22 and F-35 both showed up with final production version engines, radar, and avionics packages. Granted the F-35 had to go through a series of block upgrades/improvements and stumbles to get where it is at now but at least there was a discernable path or road map we can follow to know where its going and how it will get there. With the PAKFA, I am not seeing anything like that. I KNOW it will eventually get everything that it needs but how and when would be nice to know. Another thing is its purposed engines. Once it finally gets its intended motor, wouldn't they need to do more additional flight tests because it may change the flight characteristics and flight envelope? That would mean that it would take EVEN LONGER.

To me stealth is a major factor for any 5th generations aircraft; current or planned. Is the PAKFA stealthy? Yes. Is it VLO, no. Will it be VLO, close but no dice. It is impossible to ascertain exactly how stealthy an aircraft is just by visual analysis. However reasonable assumptions can be made. Unless they plan to completely re-do the PAKFA design it will NEVER be as VLO or stealthy as the F-22, F-35, and its Chinese counterparts. How do we know this? Public information based on proven design elements...
https://basicsaboutaerodynamicsandavion ... -benefits/
It would appear that US and Chinese aircraft were designed to be as stealthy as possible given limitations in technology, engineering, and material all while attempting to acheive a balance with good kinematic performance. The PAKFA on the other hand with the same limitations appears to have opted to be stealthy enough but with more emphasis on kinematic qualities. Then there are factors such as quality of RAM and design tolerances.

As I see it the PAKFA is late to the game and doesnt have enough players as well as all the tools and skills to play for too long in the major leagues.


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