SU-57: On hold for a decade

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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southerncross

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Unread post01 Aug 2019, 13:06

The amount of posts in this thread that proudly ignore facts and indulge in bashing the rival plane is alarming. This barely hidden caricaturing of the program can hardly produce any useful information, as it is indeed produced in many brilliant threads here. As a newbie I cannot post much, so summing it up:

- Izd. 30 is expected to be ready by 2023, this has been said several times. Of course, testing is done because uncertainties exist, so delays are possible. But none has been reported by now after 1.5 years of flight testing and the plans to re-engine early production planes are firm, so the technical solutions work.
- All systems on the plane, that we know, have been through state tests already. That is why it enters serial production / operation and a first batch has been contracted.
- Russia always produces planes the way they plan to do it with the Su-57. It is, BTW, very efficient in allowing to sustain a production line with minimal fluctuations through an extended period, reducing costs and maximizing quality. Same thing goes for crew training.
- No versions of the plane for VKS have been mentioned. Only retrofit that we know of is the 2nd stage engine when it is ready, on all airframes. Since it is 1:1 exchangeable with AL-41F1, chances are it can be used on other planes like Su-35 afterwards, so almost no costs will be incurred. Please check availability and concurrency costs associated to F-35's own early LRIPs before attacking other procurement practices.
- There is no way US can deploy thousands of F-35 and F-22 to Russia (without triggering a nuclear war in the process), and no chance that Russia will try to match such numbers for some global struggle for supremacy. Therefore such arguments about numbers are pretty much useless. Obviously Russia has no intention to outspend the country enjoying the exorbitant privilege of the dollar, no matter how much you taunt them.
- RCS of the plane continues to be unknown and impossible to eye-ball.
- USAF and USN are the ones apparently scrambling to develop 6G planes (as well as hypersonics and withdrawing from arms control treaties), demanding greatly increased budgets, shortened developmental cycles and imposing bans to disclose any detail about what they are up to. Illogical if current systems enjoy the overwhelming superiority that is claimed here. Deeds matter, not words.
- About the deployment to Syria: it is a no brainer that disclosing it in advance by the West would have instantly killed the plane's reputation in terms of LO with no backlash for US and damaged their export prospects much more efficiently than CAATSA. Hence why it is safe to assume nobody was aware.
- For those not understanding why Russia buys their own plane, which has just finished state tests and for which the need has been established already in the 80ies, well it is pretty obvious they want it isn't it?

In a nutshell: if you want to understand what the Russians are up to with this plane, the best is to stop presuming they are acting illogically. It really is that easy.
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mixelflick

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Unread post01 Aug 2019, 13:24

sferrin wrote:
weasel1962 wrote:Export variants? Add a K and variant numbers multiply.


Su-30MKI & MKK for starters.


You're right, I forgot those (and others). So it IS quite close to a baker's dozen Flanker variants. Must be a logistical nightmare, no matter how capable these jets are.

With respect to the SU-57... I don't think it's a bad plane. But I do think Russia's track record of IOC predictions, "deployed to Syria" stunts and helter skelter "we're not mass producing it/we're going to mass produce it" is bizarre. Even at its worst, the F-35 was slated for mass production in both the US and for NATO partner nations. There was never a question - thousands would be built and proliferate around the globe. That's actually happening now, vs. just talking about it. There will soon be enough of them to revolutionize air warfare and restore America's qualitative advantage in the air.

The same can't be said of the SU-57. Even assuming (current) plans come to fruition, 76 birds aren't going to cut it. You may argue they'll be follow on orders, but look at what happened to the F-22. Sukhoi isn't going to keep producing aircraft without making a profit. 34 or some odd million per airframe? C'mon... For a jet with all the capabilites they're talking about... to produce them for 30 something million would be an engineering accomplishment worthy of the moon landing.

Do I think it'll reach operational units? Yes. Do I think it'll be exported? Possibly. But more and more it looks like a vanity project, more an apple of Putin's eye vs. an operationally useful airframe. Time will tell, but every day that ticks by is another adding to its dated design. Frankly, I'll be surprised if all the bugs get worked out before the American 6th gen gets here...
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botsing

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Unread post01 Aug 2019, 13:51

southerncross wrote:- There is no way US can deploy thousands of F-35 and F-22 to Russia (without triggering a nuclear war in the process), and no chance that Russia will try to match such numbers for some global struggle for supremacy. Therefore such arguments about numbers are pretty much useless. Obviously Russia has no intention to outspend the country enjoying the exorbitant privilege of the dollar, no matter how much you taunt them.

Why would the US deploy "thousands of F-35 and F-22" to Russia? Russian and NATO planes have other opportunities to meet each other outside Russia.

And exorbitant privilege of the dollar? Taunting?

southerncross wrote:- RCS of the plane continues to be unknown and impossible to eye-ball.

But we can sure make educated guesses by looking at the current state of each plane.

southerncross wrote:- USAF and USN are the ones apparently scrambling to develop 6G planes (as well as hypersonics and withdrawing from arms control treaties), demanding greatly increased budgets, shortened developmental cycles and imposing bans to disclose any detail about what they are up to. Illogical if current systems enjoy the overwhelming superiority that is claimed here. Deeds matter, not words.

Having superiority now doesn't mean you will have that forever, once your opponent starts to yield equiv-tech you better have the next generation ready.

And if deeds matter and not words then Russia can effectively stop their programs and the entire propaganda machines that goes with them. :roll:

southerncross wrote:- About the deployment to Syria: it is a no brainer that disclosing it in advance by the West would have instantly killed the plane's reputation in terms of LO with no backlash for US and damaged their export prospects much more efficiently than CAATSA. Hence why it is safe to assume nobody was aware.

Assumption is the mother of all f....... Why would we trust you and take your meager speculation above others?

southerncross wrote:In a nutshell: if you want to understand what the Russians are up to with this plane, the best is to stop presuming they are acting illogically. It really is that easy.

You have to reverse this. Of course they are acting logically, so with that in mind you can rationalize their motives.
"Those who know don’t talk. Those who talk don’t know"
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southerncross

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Unread post01 Aug 2019, 20:27

botsing wrote:Why would the US deploy "thousands of F-35 and F-22" to Russia? Russian and NATO planes have other opportunities to meet each other outside Russia.


Russia has no need to match USAF numbers unless the later deploys to their borders, since they essentially have no foreign military presence. All those fictional scenarios where Russia goes to war against US in some faraway land are just that, fictions completely detached from the realities of the lean force structure and defensive doctrine of Russian military.

And exorbitant privilege of the dollar? Taunting?

Yes, as global reserve currency it allows US military expenses above and beyond those of any other country. After claiming to have depleted soviet economy in an arms race, obviously US would be happy if Russia entered a new one now... not going to happen.

But we can sure make educated guesses by looking at the current state of each plane.


You cannot estimate properties and dimensions of inner layers of RAM and RAS which are critical to RCS with your bare eyesight. Thus you can't make educated guesses beyond the simplest shaping analysis and this will leave you potentially orders of magnitude away from where the real RCS is.

Having superiority now doesn't mean you will have that forever, once your opponent starts to yield equiv-tech you better have the next generation ready.


That would be pretty much the first assumption I read here that Su-57 is equivalent to US 5th gen, comments are rather that it is underpowered, its RCS on the Superhornet level and with soviet-like avionics, hence a glorified Flanker but not a 5th gen fighter.

It is also revealing to read that no deterrence is sought after, but superiority. That has some serious implications, but the discussion doesn't belong here.

You have to reverse this. Of course they are acting logically, so with that in mind you can rationalize their motives.


These motives being that Putin has a fixation with this plane, or something real, like wanting to defend their country and develop their technology / industry / economy? Their motives for developing and procuring an advanced fighter are as obvious as those of any other country, no need for cartoonish motivations like those imagined by some.

BTW, yours is a great signature and sadly very true!
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milosh

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Unread post01 Aug 2019, 21:13

What many Flanker variants?!?

Su-30 which is most exported Flanker exist in two variants. One with N001 radar and one with N011M radar. N011M variant have canards and TVC. N001 variant don't have. N001 variant is lot cheaper though.

MKK, MKA, MKI, MKM, MKV etc, are markings which represent buyer!

Same thing as MK2 or MK2V that is upgrade for MKK or MKV.

Sukhoi for its own reason have such complicated marking system but it is really simple if you look equipment or even simplier if you look plane photos (no canards mean cheaper one)
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Unread post02 Aug 2019, 01:19

Russian philosophy is clearly becoming one of not needing to match or be superior to the US, but rather to be just good enough to pose a credible threat to "contain" the US and avoid war until we implode from liberalism and illegal immigration whose political leanings are socialist. It will be interesting to see what the Russians have in store for a stealth bomber: truly stealthy or just again good enough to pose a credible threat. Don't want to get political in an aviation forum, but I believe its politics and budgets that shaping Russian air power and why they didn't try to do too much with the su57. And then remember that stealth is 2 fold, active and passive. Maybe they are putting more emphasis into the electrical engineering path of stealth.
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weasel1962

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Unread post02 Aug 2019, 01:23

mixelflick wrote:You're right, I forgot those (and others). So it IS quite close to a baker's dozen Flanker variants. Must be a logistical nightmare, no matter how capable these jets are.


It is a logistical nightmare, more so for some operators. The Malaysians who bought the Su-30MKM got it particularly bad because they further integrated non-Russian avionics which the Russians refused to maintain, and justifiably so.

milosh wrote:Su-30 which is most exported Flanker exist in two variants. One with N001 radar and one with N011M radar.


The N001 itself has a few variants. The Russians start from the original baseline. The Indonesian & Vietnamese use the N001VEP. Chinese use the N001VE for the 1st batches and VEP for their Su-30MK2s. N011M also has a variant. The Indians and Algerians use the Bars. Myanmar uses the upgraded Bars-R for its SU-30SMEs.

Not all bars are the same. :pint:
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milosh

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Unread post02 Aug 2019, 05:26

weasel1962 wrote:
milosh wrote:Su-30 which is most exported Flanker exist in two variants. One with N001 radar and one with N011M radar.


The N001 itself has a few variants. The Russians start from the original baseline. The Indonesian & Vietnamese use the N001VEP. Chinese use the N001VE for the 1st batches and VEP for their Su-30MK2s. N011M also has a variant. The Indians and Algerians use the Bars. Myanmar uses the upgraded Bars-R for its SU-30SMEs.

Not all bars are the same. :pint:


Yes but lot of parts are still N001 in any N001 variant. Same for N011M.
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knowan

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Unread post02 Aug 2019, 13:01

southerncross wrote:The amount of posts in this thread that proudly ignore facts


Just keep attacking long established posters, that's just totally not troll behavior.



southerncross wrote:- Russia always produces planes the way they plan to do it with the Su-57. It is, BTW, very efficient in allowing to sustain a production line with minimal fluctuations through an extended period, reducing costs and maximizing quality. Same thing goes for crew training.


Image



southerncross wrote:...without triggering a nuclear war in the process...
...as well as hypersonics...


One thing I've noticed with pro-Russian trolls; they'll always fall back to Kremlin propaganda by mentioning "but nukes!!! and hypersonics!!!".



southerncross wrote:- RCS of the plane continues to be unknown and impossible to eye-ball.


It is entirely possible to eyeball the RCS as being significantly higher than the F-22 or F-35.



southerncross wrote:- About the deployment to Syria: it is a no brainer that disclosing it in advance by the West would have instantly killed the plane's reputation in terms of LO with no backlash for US and damaged their export prospects much more efficiently than CAATSA. Hence why it is safe to assume nobody was aware.


That is a ridiculous assumption that could only come from someone heavily biased towards Russian propaganda; the West would reveal capabilities of their own intelligence and sensor systems by doing that.

It also assumes the West believes the Su-57's export prospects to be worth damaging to begin with.
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knowan

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Unread post02 Aug 2019, 13:33

Oh, what a coincidence.

Image
Image

Joined less than 2 hours after last activity from known wewuzkangz alt account. And first post of the new account is in same thread as last post of previous account.
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mixelflick

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Unread post02 Aug 2019, 13:34

Good read about the first Russian SU-57's..

https://theaviationist.com/2019/08/01/s ... ealth-jet/

I will say this: Of all the non-American stealth/quasi stealth birds, I find the SU-57 the most interesting. The airframe itself I find very pleasing, like a snake from the side. Supposedly, the Russian Air Force refers to it as, "the needle". The Levcons are unique, giving many of the benefits of canards without some of the drawbacks. It will undoubtedly be fast, especially when that 2nd stage engine gets here. And like almost all Russian birds, it carries a lot of gas.

Where I think they're falling down is trying to make it air to everything, along with too many unnecessary radars. All of that adds weight, complexity and so much weapons separation/testing that it just adds to timeline IMO. Honing its air to air mission to perfection, along with a rudimentary air to ground mission set (like the Raptor) would go a long way toward streamiling things. It would also allow the pilots to focus on air to air OCA/DCA, instead of splitting hairs by trying to master air to everything.

As a silver bullet force, I'm sure it'll be an important ace up Russia's sleeve. It will likely chew through anyone's F-15's, 16's, Typhoons and Rafale's. Only the F-22 and 35 will have significant advantages over it. Fortunately for us, there will be MANY F-35's flying with many nations, by the time all 76 come on line circa 2028.
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knowan

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Unread post02 Aug 2019, 13:49

mixelflick wrote:Fortunately for us, there will be MANY F-35's flying with many nations, by the time all 76 come on line circa 2028.


Letsee, here's the current orders for nations in Europe:
138 with UK
90 with Italy
52 with Netherlands
34 with Belgium
27 with Denmark

And Northern Pacific nations:
147 with Japan
72 with South Korea

That's 341 in Europe and 219 in the North Pacific, already 560 non-US military F-35s. And those numbers will go up further with probable orders from nations like Poland, Finland, Greece, Romania and Spain.
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Unread post02 Aug 2019, 22:36

wooster wrote:Russian philosophy is clearly becoming one of not needing to match or be superior to the US, but rather to be just good enough to pose a credible threat to "contain" the US and avoid war until we implode from liberalism and illegal immigration whose political leanings are socialist. It will be interesting to see what the Russians have in store for a stealth bomber: truly stealthy or just again good enough to pose a credible threat. Don't want to get political in an aviation forum, but I believe its politics and budgets that shaping Russian air power and why they didn't try to do too much with the su57. And then remember that stealth is 2 fold, active and passive. Maybe they are putting more emphasis into the electrical engineering path of stealth.


That is pretty much it, deterrence is the key requirement and all the rest is just a plus. That being said, I personally believe the Su-57 to be well beyond that level vs. other 5th gen fighters, but I very much perceive that to be a minority opinion here, logical to a certain point and also respectable, so no point in insisting.

Budget and politics always shape everything, don't know what you mean exactly in this context. Russia as any other country does not have all the money they would fancy for their military and some prioritization and tolerance for suboptimal solutions are needed all the time.

It is also true that stealth has an active part, related to EW. A plane that can be seen but no tracked can't be engaged. I don't know to what extent this plays a role in the plane's LO design and its compromises, but Russian military indeed place a great focus in this area and the plane has a radioelectrical suite comprising radars, ESM and jammers and integrating them for self defence. May play a role to explain why Sukhoi indulged in some apparent capital sins of LO design as the cylindrical nacelles of the engines.

@knowan:

Differently to you, I am not criticising posters but posts. I am going to ignore the hostility and paranoia of yours directed at me, but should you persist in such disrespectful and inquisitorial attitude I must and will report. Let us better discuss like civil people, please.
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milosh

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Unread post03 Aug 2019, 08:16

mixelflick wrote:Where I think they're falling down is trying to make it air to everything, along with too many unnecessary radars. All of that adds weight, complexity and so much weapons separation/testing that it just adds to timeline IMO.


F-22 would have side arrays but it was canceled because of budget. So I don't think it is unnecessary at all. Wing L-band isn't something which you don't have in US fighters. F-35 have L-band AESA wing array, it is smaller then Su-35/57 but still it is there.
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Unread post03 Aug 2019, 10:29

milosh wrote:F-22 would have side arrays but it was canceled because of budget. So I don't think it is unnecessary at all. Wing L-band isn't something which you don't have in US fighters. F-35 have L-band AESA wing array, it is smaller then Su-35/57 but still it is there.

Careful there, I don't think anyone ever claimed those arrays are anything else but IFF transceivers. Not enough elements to be useful as radars; same goes for the Su-35/-57, IMO.
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