SU-57: On hold for a decade

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Jul 2019, 10:04

southerncross wrote:
That is only the first contract, they didn't disclose how many will be produced in total.



Sorry, the "spin" is no longer cutting it. As the Su-57 is frankly a failure anyway you slice it. As Russia can't find a "single" customer for the type. Even after almost weekly attempts to sell it to India. Their BIGGEST CUSTOMER! This is supported by the fact they themselves have committed to just 76 aircraft over the next "NINE" years.

Which, speaks volumes..... :shock:

I suggest some forget the propaganda from RT, TASS, and Sputnik and move into the real world. (just saying)


Respectfully 8)
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mixelflick

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Unread post24 Jul 2019, 10:33

I've followed this program since the prototypes first flight back in what, 2010?

The whole thing is spin. Ever since day 1 it was the Raptorski super-plane that was going to be in service no later than 2013. Probably sooner. Exept um, nope. 2015 now. Nope. 2016 and so forth until now we're being told 76 will be in service by 2028.

This new forecasting is much better, because it gives them slack to hide behind any further delays for another 9 years. The only reason India MIGHT buy it is... there's no other alternative. They're not getting the F-35 or J/C-31 so the SU-57 is it. And that's at least a good 10 years away.

In 10 years time I predict India will be much closer to the West. Perhaps by then the F-35 will be offered to them, and it'll probably be flying with an even more powerful engine.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post24 Jul 2019, 10:44

mixelflick wrote:I've followed this program since the prototypes first flight back in what, 2010?

The whole thing is spin. Ever since day 1 it was the Raptorski super-plane that was going to be in service no later than 2013. Probably sooner. Exept um, nope. 2015 now. Nope. 2016 and so forth until now we're being told 76 will be in service by 2028.

This new forecasting is much better, because it gives them slack to hide behind any further delays for another 9 years. The only reason India MIGHT buy it is... there's no other alternative. They're not getting the F-35 or J/C-31 so the SU-57 is it. And that's at least a good 10 years away.

In 10 years time I predict India will be much closer to the West. Perhaps by then the F-35 will be offered to them, and it'll probably be flying with an even more powerful engine.


Your likely not far off from the truth..... :D
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southerncross

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Unread post24 Jul 2019, 11:09

Corsair1963 wrote:Sorry, the "spin" is no longer cutting it. As the Su-57 is frankly a failure...
I suggest some forget the propaganda from RT, TASS, and Sputnik and move into the real world. (just saying)


I was just trying to separate a bit the actual information about the program from all the hearsay, then everybody can decide by themselves if the plane is a failure or not etc. But there is remarkably little information available about it and a lot of space for speculation, that is true.

mixelflick wrote:The whole thing is spin. Ever since day 1 it was the Raptorski super-plane that was going to be in service no later than 2013. Probably sooner. Exept um, nope. 2015 now. Nope. 2016 and so forth until now we're being told 76 will be in service by 2028.


It enters service this year, finally. Are 76 units enough in almost ten years? Surely they are not impressive numbers but there was never talk about more than 200-250 units.

This new forecasting is much better, because it gives them slack to hide behind any further delays for another 9 years. The only reason India MIGHT buy it is... there's no other alternative. They're not getting the F-35 or J/C-31 so the SU-57 is it. And that's at least a good 10 years away.


Su-57 is for Russian air force. If anybody else buys it is a plus, they will receive a monkey model or a co-development with their own subsystems. Customer and author of the plane's set of requirements is the VKS.

India does not seem to be in a hurry in any case, they are still deciding whether they buy fighters of 4.5 gen and they don't know still under which requirements...

In 10 years time I predict India will be much closer to the West. Perhaps by then the F-35 will be offered to them, and it'll probably be flying with an even more powerful engine.


This is a bit of speculation but we will see. Last news have it that they will establish a mechanism with Russia to pay weapons in domestic currencies so you can say they definitely play both sides.
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milosh

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Unread post24 Jul 2019, 17:02

mixelflick wrote:I've followed this program since the prototypes first flight back in what, 2010?

The whole thing is spin. Ever since day 1 it was the Raptorski super-plane that was going to be in service no later than 2013. Probably sooner. Exept um, nope. 2015 now. Nope. 2016 and so forth until now we're being told 76 will be in service by 2028.

This new forecasting is much better, because it gives them slack to hide behind any further delays for another 9 years. The only reason India MIGHT buy it is... there's no other alternative. They're not getting the F-35 or J/C-31 so the SU-57 is it. And that's at least a good 10 years away.

In 10 years time I predict India will be much closer to the West. Perhaps by then the F-35 will be offered to them, and it'll probably be flying with an even more powerful engine.


Well it look like you is late in PAK-FA program :D

Work on PAK-FA started in 2003 when Sukhoi won contract. In 2008 I (and others) saw how it would look like on Saturn site where was CGI model which was removed later.

I don't remember anyone said it would be ready in 2013?!? 2015 or 2016 was earliest and of course for first stage version, now it is 2019 so it isn't that behind.

Whole BSing with Su-57 was trying to get price as low as possible, they did it with Yasen sub earlier. While Sukhoi is state owned, state can't as in Stalin era to say it will cost that much, build it or gulag.

BSing as statement it is almost as 6gen so we don't need it so no serial production :roll:
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mixelflick

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Unread post25 Jul 2019, 12:44

Well, granted this is APA but... here's what they said in their write up on PAK FA:

"PAK-FA Low Rate Initial Production is planned for 2013, and Full Rate Production for 2015, with initial deliveries of the Indian dual seat variant planned for 2017"
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milosh

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Unread post27 Jul 2019, 19:25

mixelflick wrote:Well, granted this is APA but... here's what they said in their write up on PAK FA:

"PAK-FA Low Rate Initial Production is planned for 2013, and Full Rate Production for 2015, with initial deliveries of the Indian dual seat variant planned for 2017"


APA modified official statements to present PAK-FA as something behind corner. What was said "first ten evaluation planes will be bought after 2012, and 60 serials after 2016" not so precise at all as APA reported. Also first ten can easily be prototypes while APA presented them as LRIP planes.
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mixelflick

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Unread post28 Jul 2019, 15:22

Look man, it's a nice looking bird. Beautiful lines, great airframe like the Flankers before it.

But it's being slow rolled for a reason; it's not ready. Several things still need to come together for it to be as good as the brochure looks. Engines, I suspect integrating the avionics and weapons. I dont' think they're doing themselves any favors by attempting it be air to everything either. That means millions and millions more lines of code, weapons integration and flight software modifications.

If they had just focused on it being an air to air silver bullet, they might have fielded say 100 by now. But all this mission creep is hell on the engineers, is likely adding more and more weight and you can only "test" so much of it on SU-35's.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post29 Jul 2019, 03:12

Sounds like the biggest problem facing the Su-57. Is the aircraft relatively poor RCS. If, true it hardly matters. If, the issues with the Engines and/or Avionics are resolved or not.

This of course explain why the Indian Air Force totally lost interest in the program.
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southerncross

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Unread post29 Jul 2019, 11:56

mixelflick wrote:But it's being slow rolled for a reason; it's not ready.


True, the definitive engine is not ready for serial production yet. But the moment they sign a big production contract they need certainties. So in all probability it has tested enough to know the technical solutions work. As for the plane itself, state tests were already finished last year if I remember well.

Russia is not producing any plane beyond 10-20 aircraft per year, not even when they air force was in tatters. Now it has been modernized to a great extent they are not in a hurry and will not go faster. There is simply no evidence that Russia is proceeding differently with Su-57 as to what they have done with other new planes.

If they had just focused on it being an air to air silver bullet, they might have fielded say 100 by now. But all this mission creep is hell on the engineers, is likely adding more and more weight and you can only "test" so much of it on SU-35's.


The plane is multirole from its inception, therefore there is no mission creep ongoing that we know of and no need to add more weight beyond the structural reinforcements done after 2015 and which are BTW a result of the designers doing their weight minimization job right.

Precisely for the air to air role the new engines are necessary, they are reported to allow for effective supercruise

Corsair1963 wrote:Sounds like the biggest problem facing the Su-57. Is the aircraft relatively poor RCS.


Only there is no evidence about its RCS. The events indicate it flew to Syria without anybody noticing so its RCS is certainly not that big.

If, true it hardly matters. If, the issues with the Engines and/or Avionics are resolved or not.


What issues? Developing an engine with higher specific performance than foreign equivalents is hardly an "issue" for Russia but for anybody else designing or fielding air superiority fighters.

This of course explain why the Indian Air Force totally lost interest in the program.


Only the head of the Indian air force was a few days ago in Russia testing planes and explaining that they needed to see the Su-57 going in service with Russia and then test it to make a decision on whether they buy it.

Sorry for having to point it out, but you guys keep making assertions that tell more about your beliefs than about the plane's facts.

This is a serious plane with a serious development program, as any other modern fighter it will keep being developed for many years, with new features and weapons being included and upgrades flowing into the design, every bit as F-35 for instance. It would be sensible to reconcile with the possibility that, one to one, it will be competitive with the F-22 and F-35, it has been designed for that.
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mixelflick

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Unread post29 Jul 2019, 14:06

Well, it seems to be a very inefficent way of introducing airframes into service. If this follows the evolution of the Flanker (and it sure looks like it), Russia's armed forces will have half a dozen versions of a small number, meaning it'll be a logistical nightmare.

How they propose to be able to deploy, fly, fight and win is beyond me. The RCS is a big deal BTW, as if its sub-par in an F-22/35 world, it's not going to last very long. New engines or not. By the time this thing comes to fruition F-22's will be flying with the new long range air to air weapon under development, have a helmet mounted sight for the 9x block II and the F-35 will likely have a much more powerful engine, updated threat software and the new long range air to air weapon too.

Long story short: The SU-57 is always going to be playing catch up, and will be out-numbered at keast 10-1 vs. the number of F-22's and F-35's flying..
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knowan

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Unread post29 Jul 2019, 16:42

southerncross wrote:The events indicate it flew to Syria without anybody noticing so its RCS is certainly not that big.


That is a heavily biased assumption; you're assuming that no other country knew of the Su-57s in Syria until they were spotted on the ground with satellites.

The problem with that assumption? It assumes other countries would have said anything if they knew before it became publicly known.
It also assumes the Su-57s were not detected by radar while en-route to Syria, but were misidentified as other Russian aircraft types.


southerncross wrote:Sorry for having to point it out, but you guys keep making assertions that tell more about your beliefs than about the plane's facts.


You appear to be guilty of the exact thing you are accusing others of, as you are crafting assumptions that support your beliefs without considering alternatives that run counter to your beliefs.
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Unread post29 Jul 2019, 18:19

mixelflick wrote:Long story short: The SU-57 is always going to be playing catch up, and will be out-numbered at keast 10-1 vs. the number of J-20s flying, ignoring the J-31s...


See my correction above. It will be outnumbered 100:1 or more compared to F-22A and F-35's.
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Unread post29 Jul 2019, 20:21

southerncross wrote:[



This is a serious plane with a serious development program, as any other modern fighter it will keep being developed for many years, with new features and weapons being included and upgrades flowing into the design, every bit as F-35 for instance. It would be sensible to reconcile with the possibility that, one to one, it will be competitive with the F-22 and F-35, it has been designed for that.

The F-22 and F-35 had production representative engines, avionics/sensors, software, signature reduction/management, etc.... unlike the Su-57.
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Unread post29 Jul 2019, 20:39

wrightwing wrote:The F-22 and F-35 had production representative engines, avionics/sensors, software, signature reduction/management, etc.... unlike the Su-57.

With lifetime upgrade paths already lined out. Lessons learned from the F-16 IMO.
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